axpz20 knhc 271521

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Feb 27 2017

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...  

No well defined monsoon trough/ITCZ. Scattered moderate
convection within 45-60 nm either side of line 03n120w to 


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

Weak high pressure is settling over the region, supporting gentle
to moderate breezes. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of
California and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere offshore. The high pressure
will dissipate through late today ahead of a cold front
approaching the area from the west. Strong southwest to west
winds are expected over the far northern Gulf of California 
ahead of the cold front tonight into Tuesday. The front will 
move across Baja California norte and the northern Gulf of 
California through late Tuesday, then become diffuse. Northwest 
swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching the 
waters beyond 200 nm off Baja California norte Wednesday, then 
subsiding. Looking ahead, high pressure building north of the 
area over the Great Basin will support strong northwest winds 
down the length of the Gulf of California Wednesday night into 

Farther south, varying winds at 10 kt or less generally prevail 
all the way to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Little change is 
expected through Tuesday. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep 
through the southwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and funnel 
strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds 
will be possible Thursday night through Saturday morning.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Strong gap winds are developing through the Gulf of papagayo this
morning, the result of slightly higher pressure building north of
the area. The Gap winds will diminish this afternoon, but are 
expected to pulse again tonight and each night across the Gulf of
papagayo through the remainder of the week, along with gap winds
off Puerto corinto Nicaragua. The combined strong areas of gap 
winds will allow seas of 8 ft downstream within 200 nm of the 
coast each night. Fresh gap winds will also develop each night 
through the gulfs of Panama and fonseca. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle breezes will persist.

Remainder of the area... 

A cold front extends from 30n125w to 25n130w. Winds and seas are
moderate near the front, but long period northwest swell of 8 to
10 ft was observed in earlier altimeter data well west of the 
front, north of 25n and west of 135w. The front will continue to 
move east reaching the coast of Baja California norte Tuesday. 
Farther south, a surface trough extends from 11n113w to 04n116w 
will continue to move west through the next couple of days 
accompanied by a few showers and thunderstorms, eventually 
reaching 120w to 125w by mid week before dampening out. High 
pressure building north of the area behind the cold front will 
allow northeast winds to increase slightly across the region 
north of 05n and west of 120w by late Tuesday. Along with the 
ongoing components of northwest swell propagating into the 
region, seas will build to 8 to 10 ft over much of the area by 
mid week. 


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