283 
axnt20 knhc 130542
twdat 
Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 am EST Mon Feb 13 2012
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central 
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections of 
South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery...weather observations...radar...and meteorological 
analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.
...ITCZ/monsoon trough...
The monsoon trough extends across W Africa into the E tropical 
Atlc near 7n11w along 5n17w to 2n21w where the ITCZ axis 
continues 1n24w 2n31w 1n36w to 1n50w. Clusters of scattered 
moderate convection are the Equator to 5n between 25w-38w and 
from the Equator to 2n between 46w-50w. 
...Discussion...
Gulf of Mexico...
broad upper ridge dominates the Gulf tonight with the axis 
extending from the Caribbean through the Yucatan Channel to over 
the N conus near the Mississippi Delta. A surface ridge also 
covers the Gulf anchored by a 1032 mb high over N Mississippi. 
This is giving the Gulf moderate to fresh NE to E surface flow. 
The surface flow converging with the upper flow is producing 
dense cloud cover and scattered showers over the W Gulf W of 
92w. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are moving W over the 
E/central Gulf leaving the skies over the E Gulf mostly clear. 
Southerly return flow will set up over the W Gulf later tonight 
and will spread E across the entire Gulf by Mon. A cold front 
will move off the Texas coast Mon night and across the N Gulf 
through Tue before stalling from the Florida Big Bend to the 
central Gulf Wed. Remnants of the front will then lift N on Wed. 
Another cold front will move off the Texas coast on Thu 
extending from se Louisiana to NE Mexico by Thu afternoon and 
shifting E of the area Fri night. 
Caribbean Sea...
an upper trough over the W Atlc is draping a cold front across 
the W Atlc over Hispaniola where TI begins to dissipate across 
SW Haiti near 18n74w just E of Jamaica to NE Honduras near 
15n84w. Remnant moisture with possible isolated showers are 
within 150 nm W of the front with cold air stratocumulus clouds 
dotting the remainder of the NW Caribbean W of the front. A 
broad upper ridge extends from over South America and Colombia 
to over Central America then turns N through the Yucatan Channel 
into the Gulf of Mexico. The remainder of the Caribbean is under 
clear skies tonight. The front will stall tonight and gradually 
dissipate by Tue. Moderate to fresh trades will return to the E 
Caribbean by Tue.
Atlantic Ocean...
a broad upper trough covers the W Atlc supporting a cold front 
that enters the W/central Atlc near 32n57w continuing SW along 
25n65w to across Hispaniola into the Caribbean near 19n72w. 
Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm E of 
the front N of 22n with isolated showers within 60 nm E of the 
remainder of the front. Dense low/mid clouds with isolated 
showers are within 150 nm W of the entire front with cold air 
stratocumulus clouds over the remainder of the W Atlc to 80w. A 
surface ridge is building eastward behind the front anchored by 
a 1032 mb high over N Mississippi. A second broad upper trough 
dominates the E Atlc with the axis extending through 32n34w 
along 23n43w to 12n56w supporting a surface low well N of the 
discussion area and generating scattered showers and possible 
isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm of line from 30n35w to 
beyond 32n29w. A surface ridge extends over the remainder of the 
Atlc with the axis extending from a 1024 mb high near 29n38w SW 
to 21n61w. The cold front will move across the central Atlc Mon 
where it will stall and weaken through Tue and dissipate by Tue 
night. High pressure will continue to build in the wake of the 
front through midweek with southerly return flow setting up over 
the NW Atlc Tue. A second front will pass through the W Atlc N 
of 28n Wed and Thu. A third front will move off the N Florida 
coast Fri. 
For additional information please visit 
http://www.Hurricanes.Gov/marine
$$
paw