Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
235 am MST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 

a chilly Pacific weather system will move into the Desert Southwest 
today...bringing cooler temperatures...breezy to windy 
conditions...and more cloud cover...and a slight chance for showers 
over the higher terrain east of Phoenix. Near to slightly below 
normal temperatures will then persist through the upcoming 
weekend...and into early next week. and traveling 
conditions for the long Holiday weekend will be favorable. 



Today through Saturday... 

The various global model suites continue to show excellent agreement 
with each other...and with their respective last few runs on the 
overall forecast details concerning an upper low that is now moving 
eastward into northwest seen on latest WV satellite imagery. All 
the models continue to take this low center slowly eastward into northwest 
Utah by midday Thursday...then retrograde it very slowly back into northern 
California by early a Rex block becomes established over the 
western US/SW Canada. The associated surface cold front...which is now 
moving into southern CA/ expected to move into south-central 
Arizona by this afternoon/early evening...then move slowly into Southeast Arizona by 
late tonight/early Thursday. 

Model guidance continues to keep the coldest air/most of the 
moisture well off to our north...with just an increase in middle and 
high cloudiness at most locations as the front moves through. The 
only chance for any real moisture to get into our County Warning Area will be from 
Hurricane Sandra as it moves slowly north...then NE towards the West 
Coast of Mexico over the next few days. Moisture sheared of Sandra 
is forecast to be pulled northeastward into nm/Texas on Thu/Fri. 
Although the Euro and Gem brings a bit of Sandra/S moisture into 
eastern Arizona...the GFS keeps any moisture well off to our east. Even 
if the Euro/Gem solution is current...only some isolated showers can be 
expected over the higher terrain east of Phoenix...with none of the 
sref plumes showing any quantitative precipitation forecast making its way into Phoenix itself. 
Thus...have raised probability of precipitation a bit across southern Gila County during 
this period...up into the very low slight chance range. As far as 
temperatures are concerned...model guidance continues to be very 
consistent...with highs across the low deserts mainly in the middle-60 
to lower-70 range during this period. Winds are still expected to 
pick up this afternoon...mainly across southeast California/SW Arizona...but with 
sustained wind speeds still only rising into the 10-20 miles per hour 
range...with gusts to 30 miles per hour at most locations. 

Sunday through Wednesday... 

Decent model agreement holds through this period...with upper-level 
trofing over the Great Basin/central rockies very slowly progressing 
off to the east...with our County Warning Area under dry westerly flow...with 
little...if any chance for precipitation. Temperatures during this period 
are expected to remain close to normal...with perhaps some slight 
warming early next week...resulting in good traveling weather across 
most of Arizona/Southern California for folks returning from the Thanksgiving 


south-central Arizona including kphx...kiwa...and ksdl... 
a cold front was located between sba and lax at 04z and extended 
northeastward all the way through Nevada. The front will weaken as it 
moves eastward. It is anticipated to move through the Phoenix area 
between 15z-18z but there likely will not be a sharp wind shift with 
the frontal passage. But there will be a change from east-southeast surface 
winds to southwest directions. Meanwhile...southwest flow above the 
surface will strengthen overnight but not enough for low level wind shear criteria 
to be met. As for clouds...ceilings will remain above fl150 but there 
may be some scattered cumulus after 12z...fl060-080. 

Southeast California/southwest Arizona including kipl and kblh... 
a cold front was located between sba and lax at 04z and extended 
northeastward all the way through Nevada. It is anticipated to reach 
the lower Colorado River valley between 06z-09z. Surface winds will 
be strongest over Imperial County but with gusts mostly below 25kts. 
Sustained surface winds will mostly remain below 15 kts until after 
16z but above the surface strong westerly winds will 
prevail...approaching low level wind shear criteria. As for clouds...ceilings will 
remain above fl150 but there will be some cumulus fl060-080 after 
07z...possibly some localized ceilings. 

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


Fire weather... 
Thursday through Monday... 
a slow moving low pressure system will persist across the southern 
rockies through early next week...yielding a prolonged period of 
slightly below normal temperatures. Despite the presence of the low 
to our north...precipitation chances will be negligible across much 
of the area. The cooler temperatures will also result in humidity 
levels remaining higher than normal during the day with good 
overnight recovery. Winds will also remain generally light through 
early next week. 


Spotter information statement... 
spotters are encouraged to report based on Standard operating 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 


Visit US on facebook...twitter...and at weather.Gov/Phoenix 

fire weather...Hirsch 

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