Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
232 am MST Wednesday Oct 26 2016 

strong high pressure building over the region will lead to warming 
temperatures through the end of this week with record highs possible 
at some locations on Thursday. A slight cool down will occur for the 
weekend and early next week, but temperatures will still remain well 
above normal and the dry weather will continue for the majority of 
the region. 


clear skies are abundant across the Desert Southwest this morning as 
an upper level ridge continues to build into the region. Models have 
trended stronger with this ridge over the past several runs with 
500mb heights now forecast to reach 590dm tonight. Warming aloft will 
continue into Thursday while also translating to warmer surface 
temperatures. Highs today will easily reach into the lower 90s over 
the lower deserts with a few spots possibly hitting 95. The warmest 
day still looks to be Thursday with 850mb temperatures of 24-25c over 
south-central Arizona, or near 99% of climo for this time of year. 
Thursday's highs across the lower deserts should top out in a 92-98 
degree range, potentially reaching record highs at Yuma and Phoenix. 

By Thursday night, an Pacific low pressure trough reaches the 
California coast helping to displace the upper level ridge eastward 
over New Mexico and Texas. The track of this Pacific low still keeps 
the majority of the dynamics and moisture out of our area, but we 
can't rule out a few showers across southeast California on Friday 
with best chances over jtnp. This trough will drop our heights aloft 
(500mb heights of 582-585dm), leading to a 2-5 degree drop in highs 
for Friday. Dry southwesterly flow with little change in temperatures 
is shown into Saturday. 

A deep northern Pacific trough dips southward down the West Coast 
Saturday night into Sunday before moving into Oregon and northern 
California later Sunday. As with the previous trough, this one should 
mostly miss US to the northwest, but a slight chance of showers will 
exist on Sunday mainly over jtnp. Little change in the jet stream 
pattern is seen for early next week keeping any potential weather 
systems to our north. The dry southwesterly flow should keep US under 
mostly clear skies with temperatures near to a few degrees above 
normal for next Monday-Wednesday. 


Aviation...south-central Arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl: 

High pressure aloft building into the area from the west will result 
in genly clear skies at the terminals over the next 24 hours. Maybe 
a few high based cu tomorrow afternoon but nothing significant. 
Light gradients will result in winds favoring normal diurnal trends 
but with speeds on the light side mostly below 8kt. No aviation 
concerns anywhere for at least the next 24 hours. 

Southeast California/southwest Arizona including kipl and kblh: 

No aviation concerns through the taf period. Skies will continue to 
clear with a few high-level clouds passing overhead. At kblh, winds 
will remain light and out of a northerly to northeasterly direction 
through the taf period. At kipl, winds will remain light and out of 
the west, turning more northerly by noon Wednesday. 

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


Fire weather... 
Friday through Tuesday... 

Another weather system brushes the Desert Southwest Friday into 
Saturday, bringing an increase in humidities and a slight chance of 
showers in southeast California. Warmer and drier weather returns 
Sunday before another system passing off to the west and north 
pushes slightly cooler temperatures and elevated breezes on Monday 
and Tuesday. 

Minimum humidities in the 20 to 30 percent range Friday through 
Sunday to fall into the 15 to 25 percent range on Monday and 
Tuesday. Overnight recoveries will be in the good range. 

Winds will remain light and follow normal diurnal headings through 
the entire period, except for some afternoon breeziness up to 20 mph 
in southeast California and southwest Arizona on Monday and Tuesday 


Spotter information statement... 
spotter activation will not be needed this week. 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 


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fire weather...percha/Hernandez 

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