Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
456 am MST sun Dec 4 2016 


Update...updated aviation and fire weather discussions... 


&& 


Synopsis... 
seasonable temperatures and passing high clouds can be expected 
across the region the next few days. Another storm system will pass 
to the north late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a slight dip in 
temperatures and breezy conditions. Temperatures will rebound once 
again towards the end of the week. 


&& 


Discussion... 
dry subsident flow predominates across the Desert Southwest in the 
wake of an upper low that moved south of the region through northern 
Mexico Saturday. Axis of a ridge extending from the eastern Pacific 
will be draped across the area today, resulting in mostly sunny 
skies, light winds and near normal temperatures. 


Pattern will transition Monday as the flow becomes increasingly 
cyclonic across the western half of the country. A broad trough will 
descend from Canada bringing a much colder air mass to mainly the 
Central Plains through the week. Operational models still remain in 
good agreement that a short-wave trough will pass by to our north 
Wednesday. Latest ecwmf suggests forcing for ascent will be 
sufficient to generate scattered showers mainly across northeastern 
Arizona, while the gefs plumes continue to show little potential for 
precipitation. Official forecast is for a 10 percent pop across 
eastern Gila County. Main impact from this system will instead be a 
brief cooldown, with temperatures dropping a few degrees below normal 
Wednesday and Thursday. 


Behind the aforementioned trough, a ridge will build across the 
intermountain west late in the week followed by zonal flow for the 
weekend. Activity across the western states will mainly be 
concentrated across the northern latitudes with little impact in 
terms of sensible weather across the southwest. Temperatures will 
remain near or slightly above normal with no chance of precipitation. 


&& 


Aviation... 
south-central Arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl and southeast 
California/southwest Arizona including kipl and kblh: 


Mostly clear skies and dry conditions forecast for the taf period. 
Overall light winds will prevail across the area through Monday 
morning...generally following typical diurnal patterns. No aviation 
impacts expected at least through Monday morning. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
Tuesday through saturday: 
near normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are likely for 
next week. A passing weather system to the north late Tuesday into 
Wednesday will bring breezy northerly winds down the lower Colorado 
River valley on Wednesday. Other days will feature mostly light winds 
with occasional afternoon breeziness. Minimum humidities on Tuesday 
will range from 30 to 40 percent, but then drop starting Wednesday 
with readings down into the teens to 25 percent. 


&& 


Spotter information statement... 
spotters are encouraged to report according to Standard criteria. 


&& 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arizona...none. 
California...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Visit US on facebook...twitter...and at weather.Gov/Phoenix 


Discussion...Hirsch 
aviation...Kuhlman 
fire weather...Kuhlman 



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