Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Pendleton or 
1059 am PDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016 


Updated aviation discussion 


Short term...today and tonight...mostly clear skies and dry 
conditions will continue over the next 24 hours along with light 
winds. A dry and cool northerly flow will persist which will keep 
temperatures cooler than normal. 


&& 


Aviation...18 tafs...VFR conditions through next 24 hours. Few-scattered 
070-090 this afternoon through this evening, then sky clear overnight and 
Thursday morning. Diurnal, terrain driven winds 5-9kt, except winds 
at kpdt, krdm and kbdn will increase to 10-12kt this afternoon with 
gusts to 20kt. Polan 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 212 am PDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016/ 


Short term...today through Saturday...general overview...mostly 
clear skies and dry conditions in the short term. Some cumulus 
buildups will be possible along The Blues and Wallowa Mountains 
today, but do not anticipate any precipitation in the short term. 
Skies will start to become a bit more cloudy across Washington as we 
head into Saturday. Prior to Saturday, expect temperatures to be on 
an increase, with mid to upper 80s as the highs today across the 
lower elevations, and lower 70s to lower 80s for the mountains. Each 
day the high temperature will increase by a degree or two until 
Saturday, when highs should peak in the lower to mid 90s, with 80s 
mountains. Winds will pick up out of the west Saturday afternoon and 
evening. Right now winds look to be 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 
30 mph. This is mainly across the lower elevations, but breezy winds 
will be expected in the central Oregon area as well. 


Technical synopsis...high pressure set up over the Gulf of Alaska 
will continue to provide dry northwest flow to the forecast area. 
500mb heights will slowly increase over the coming days, allowing 
for the warmer temperatures to come, but the ridge itself will still 
remain offshore. The remnants of a weak disturbance will clip the 
eastern portion of the County Warning Area today, allowing for the cumulus buildups 
mentioned in the overview. Moisture will continue to overrun the 
ridge and be forced east of the area in the coming days, with maybe 
some occasional mid and high clouds across the Washington Cascades and 
northeast or. As we move into Saturday a weather system to the 
north will suppress the ridge to the west and transition the area 
into a westerly flow. But this will be met with increased winds as 
a 30-50kt 700mb jet and a 30kts 850mb jet will align east of the 
Cascades over the lower elevations. These stronger winds will 
coincide with peak heating to allow for the winds to mix down to the 
surface. Weber 


Long term...Saturday night through Tuesday...dry weather pattern 
continues with west to southwest flow aloft. Ec/GFS diverge by late 
Monday with ec bringing an upper level trof across the area, while 
GFS maintains the westerly flow and delays trof passage until after 
Wednesday. Ensemble models also show quite a bit of variation by 
Tuesday as well. None of the models have much in the way of 
moisture, so the only basic difference will be temperature patterns 
and wind. For now a blend between the models seems in order. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
PDT 84 55 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 
alw 84 60 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 
psc 88 55 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 
ykm 89 57 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 
hri 87 52 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 
eln 86 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 
rdm 83 45 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 
lgd 80 50 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 
gcd 81 47 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 
dls 91 58 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


PDT watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 
Washington...none. 
&& 


$$ 


91/99/89/79 



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