Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pendleton or 
205 PM PDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014 

Short term...tonight through Saturday...upper level ridge of high 
pressure over the region is retreating to the east as an upper level 
trough system approaches the coast. Already seeing clouds associated 
with trough passing over the region but preciptation thus far has 
remained west of the Cascades. The trough will be undergoing a split 
overnight and Thursday as it moves inland. This will weaken the 
system to the point that is will mainly be some clouds but very low 
chance of precipitation. Will see some light precipitation approach 
the Cascades overnight of which some could spread onto the east 
side. Also watching for some convection to form over southeast 
Oregon overnight which could clip the far eastern zones. The trough 
passage on Thursday will be marked with mainly clouds and low chance 
of precipitation. Models do indicate some weak instability so 
carrying a slight chance of thunderstorms but overall the system 
looks unimpressive. Friday and Saturday will see the return of a 
building ridge high pressure over the region with temperatures once 
again in the middle 80s across the Lower Basin by Saturday. 

Long term...Saturday night through Wednesday...models in good 
agreement with respect to dominant ridge over the weekend. 
However...GFS is faster in pushing it east as the next trough 
approaches. At this time...going to lean towards European model (ecmwf) as it is 
slower at moving the ridge east and seems to have a little more run 
to run consistency. As a result...the weather should remain 
generally dry through Monday. However..could see some wraparound 
moisture in our extreme southeast County Warning Area as an upper low moves through 
northern Nevada Sunday and Monday. At this time...expect only an 
increase in cloud over...but will have to watch closely on final 
track of system. By Tuesday...models in fair agreement with 
southwest flow over the region. This could bring a slight chance of 
showers over favored mountain locations. By Wednesday...a deep 
upper level trough approaches the region providing a chance of 
showers area wide. There are discrepancies between models in the 
strength and path of the trough so went with a mix but staying above 
climatology. If we are could be our first wetting rain 
in quite some time. Temperatures will be above normal this weekend 
but slowly cool to near normal by the end of the period. Earle 


Aviation...00z tafs...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 
hours. Middle to high level clouds will stream over the region as a 
system off the coast moves ashore and weakens. Some sprinkles may 
occur after 18/12z...otherwise continued dry. Winds will generally 
be less than 10 kts...increasing to 10-15 kts with higher gusts 
after 18/19z. Earle 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
PDT 58 81 58 80 / 0 20 10 0 
alw 63 81 61 80 / 0 20 10 0 
psc 57 84 58 83 / 0 10 10 0 
ykm 57 79 54 82 / 10 10 10 0 
hri 57 83 58 83 / 0 10 10 0 
eln 55 78 57 81 / 10 20 10 0 
rdm 51 75 45 78 / 10 20 20 0 
lgd 54 80 51 76 / 10 20 20 0 
gcd 50 78 49 78 / 10 20 20 0 
dls 62 80 59 84 / 10 20 10 0 


PDT watches/warnings/advisories... 

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