Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Pendleton or 
1042 PM PDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014 


Updated aviation discussion 


Update...active weather continues this evening with scattered 
strong to severe thunderstorms over portions of the area. While 
the trend of the thunderstorms shows some weakening in the last 
hour or two...expect scattered thunderstorms to continue for 
several more hours and perhaps all night in the eastern half of 
the area. Large hail has been the biggest threat with the storms 
though there has been some reports of strong gusty winds, periods 
of heavy rain and frequent lightning. Current forecast covers the 
situation well and no forecast update is planned. Perry 


&& 


Aviation...06z tafs...scattered thunderstorms will continue across 
the area for several more hours before diminishing to gradually 
decreasing showers overnight. Storms will continue to affect all taf 
sites in the short term except krdm...kbdn and perhaps kpsc. 
Thunderstorms will begin redeveloping near the Cascades in the 
morning affecting kykm and in the afternoon at all taf sites except 
kykm. Storms will begin winding down after 24/04z. Ceilings will 
generally be broken-overcast above 5000 feet above ground level but local MVFR conditions 
are probable near thunderstorms. Winds will generally remain below 
15 kts through 18z tomorrow morning except near thunderstorm 
activity. After 18z, winds will begin increasing to 15 to 25 kts 
with gusts to 35 kts after 20z. Perry 


&& 


Previous disc... /issued 230 PM PDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/ 


Short term...tonight through Friday. Thunderstorms starting to 
develop across central and northeast Oregon this afternoon. Airmass 
becoming more unstable now as middle and high level clouds clear. Also 
lift will be increasing through the afternoon and evening in 
response to approaching California short wave and jet streak. Based 
on this expect coverage of showers and storms to increase through 
the afternoon and continue into the evening as they move northward. 
Jet dynamics will likely result in some stronger storms with hail 
and wind. Precipitation should diminish for a while later tonight 
before increasing again Wednesday as a large upper low moves into 
the Pacific northwest. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms 
to move through the area. Models have been consistent showing some 
heavier rain possible over the Washington Cascades and east slopes. 
As the low moves inland winds will be increasing becoming breezy by 
afternoon. Based on the strength of the low level cold advection 
many areas may see there highs early in the day with temperatures 
becoming steady in the afternoon. Precipitation will diminish 
Wednesday night as the low moves off to the east. A dry westerly 
flow aloft Thursday with mostly sunny skies, cooler temperatures and 
breezy conditions. Westerly flow continues into Friday with another 
sunny day. Temperatures will be warmer with less wind. 94 


Long term...Friday night through Tuesday. High pressure over the SW 
United States will ridge north and influence the regions weather 
with dry conditions into the weekend along with warmer temperatures. 
Some moisture moves up into the Oregon Cascades Monday afternoon 
that could produce isolated thunderstorms and rain over this area into the evening. 
Otherwise the dry conditions will persist into next week. 


Fire weather...a low pressure system moving into the region will cause 
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Although some storms may 
produce wetting rain...abundant lightning can be expected which 
could start new fires in very dry fuels. Storms have begun 
developing over central Oregon and the northeast mountains and will 
move north into the lower Columbia Basin. Scattered thunderstorms 
could potentially last through the night in some places. As the low 
moves inland Wednesday...occasional scattered thunderstorms will 
again be possible through the evening. Red flag warnings therefore 
remain in effect. Cobb 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
PDT 62 81 53 78 / 50 40 20 10 
alw 65 84 56 79 / 50 40 20 10 
psc 64 84 56 82 / 40 30 20 10 
ykm 62 77 53 77 / 40 50 20 10 
hri 64 83 55 80 / 40 30 20 10 
eln 59 74 50 73 / 30 60 30 10 
rdm 55 74 42 74 / 50 30 20 0 
lgd 57 82 50 72 / 60 40 30 10 
gcd 57 83 45 75 / 60 30 20 10 
dls 64 73 56 78 / 40 40 30 10 


&& 


PDT watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...red flag warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday 
orz041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510. 


Red flag warning until 5 PM PDT Wednesday orz509-511. 


Washington...red flag warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday 
waz024-026>030-520-521. 


&& 


For additional weather information, check our web site at... 
www.Weather.Gov/Pendleton 


$$ 


83/97/97/82 



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