Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Pendleton or 
1032 am PDT Friday Oct 24 2014 

Updated aviation discussion 

Short term...morning update...a strong low developing over the 
eastern Pacific will push a warm front north across the region 
through tonight. This front will bring varying amounts of precipitation to 
most locations as it moves north. Winds will generally be less than 
15 miles per hour today, but will become locally breezy over some of the higher 
terrain areas tonight. Also south winds will gradually increase 
across the south end of the Grande Ronde Valley. Overall forecasts 
were on track with the progression of the warm front. Did make some 
timing adjustments and did raise probability of precipitation in some areas through the 
tonight period. Also made some minor adjustments to high temperatures. 90 

Long term...previous discussion...periods of rain and high 
elevation snow and breezy winds are forecast through the extended 
period. Showers and gusty winds Sunday evening will taper off 
overnight as a weak transitory ridge shifts east of the Cascades. 
Other than isolated mountain showers...a dry forecast is in store 
for Monday. The ridge will flatten considerably as a strong westerly 
flow takes over resulting in scattered showers Monday night through 
Wednesday...mainly over the mountains. Snow levels during this time 
will range from 6000-7000 feet. The deterministic models are once 
again diverging by day 6...and confidence is low based on the high 
degree of spread in the ensemble runs. The GFS is farther north and 
east compared to the European model (ecmwf) of a large upper level trough off the 
eastern Pacific during the middle week. Despite the differences in the 
models...both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are advertising a chance of rain 
Wednesday night through Thursday night. 


Aviation...18z tafs...forecasting ceilings and visibilities remains a 
challenge due to the complex weather system moving inland. Rain 
today will likely deteriorate conditions from VFR to MVFR...and 
locally IFR. Rain has already moved into krdm and kbdn and will 
spread northward to the or/Washington border by 21z then over south central 
Washington by 00z. There will be clearing behind the system tonight 
that may result in patchy fog and stratus clouds. Forecast soundings 
show radiational fog at kpsc by sunrise Saturday. An easterly 
surface gradient through the Columbia River gorge may result in low 
level upslope creating stratus clouds at kdls overnight. 82 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
PDT 56 46 59 45 / 60 30 20 30 
alw 58 49 60 49 / 50 60 20 30 
psc 59 45 62 48 / 20 60 20 30 
ykm 53 40 56 41 / 20 70 30 40 
hri 58 43 62 46 / 40 50 20 30 
eln 56 39 56 40 / 10 70 30 40 
rdm 56 38 58 36 / 80 10 20 40 
lgd 56 43 63 44 / 60 20 20 30 
gcd 57 42 62 42 / 80 10 20 40 
dls 55 45 60 47 / 70 70 50 50 


PDT watches/warnings/advisories... 

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