Area forecast discussion...updated aviation discussion 
National Weather Service Pendleton or 
1020 am PDT sun Jul 5 2015 

Update...a band of middle level moisture will be along the southern 
fringe of our forecast area today. It still looks like most of 
the shower/thunderstorm activity will remain south of the PDT County Warning Area so have 
lowered probability of precipitation below slight chance all areas for today. It will remain 
hot this afternoon with high temperatures well into the 90s lower 
elevations with mainly 80s mountains. Winds are expected to 
decrease across the Columbia Basin of Washington so the red flag 
warning for Washington 675 will be allowed to expire as scheduled 
at 9 am. 


Previous discussion... /issued 430 am PDT sun Jul 5 2015/ 

Short through Tuesday...there continues to be some 
high clouds from thunderstorms that were south of the County Warning Area last 
evening. An upper low off the Southern California coast and an upper 
ridge over the Great Basin is causing a southerly flow to pull this 
moisture northward. It will move a little more northward today 
resulting in possible isolated showers and thunderstorms in far 
southern areas and the Wallowa Mountains this afternoon. Elsewhere 
in northern areas of the County Warning Area a stable northwest flow will keep 
conditions dry. Temperatures will cool a degree or two today due to 
this northwest flow and increased surface pressure 
gradients...especially along the Washington Cascade east slopes and 
adjacent valleys. This will also result in elevated winds this 
morning over the Washington Cascade east slopes and adjacent 
valleys. A red flag warning remains in effect until at least 9 am 
this morning in this area (fire zone 675) as a result. The northwest 
flow will weaken by tonight with the upper ridge over the Great 
Basin nudging back into the Pacific northwest Monday and Tuesday. 
The return flow on the back side of this ridge will continue to pull 
middle level moisture northward causing an increase in isolated 
thunderstorms in southern Deschutes County Monday afternoon through 
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain nearly steady Monday and 
then will increase by a degree or two on Tuesday. Winds for the most 
part will be light in all areas but may increase to 10-20 miles per hour 
locally along the Cascade east slopes each afternoon and evening. 88 

Long term...Tuesday night through Saturday...upper level low off 
the California coast will slowly progress eastward through the long 
term period. An upper level ridge will persist to the southeast 
through Thursday. The low will bring middle level moisture and 
instability to southeastern Oregon. This moisture and instability 
may bring afternoon and evening thunderstorms to the southern border 
of the County Warning Area from central Oregon to Grant County Tuesday through 
Thursday. Dry west to northwest flow will keep dry conditions with 
mostly clear skies in other areas. By Thursday thunderstorm coverage 
will spread to northeast Oregon as the low moves inland over 
California and Nevada. Showers and thunderstorms may persist 
overnight Thursday and Friday nights as the low opens into a trough 
over the Pacific northwest. Cooler air will move into eastern 
Washington and Oregon Friday and Saturday with the trough. Winds 
will be gusty at times as the trough moves through. Coonfield 

Aviation...18z tafs...VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 
hours. Variable cirrus over the area. West to northwest wind 5 to 
15 knots through the afternoon and decreasing under 10 kts overnight. Ml 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
PDT 96 62 95 65 / 0 0 0 0 
alw 95 67 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 
psc 99 64 99 66 / 0 0 0 0 
ykm 97 65 94 65 / 0 0 0 0 
hri 98 63 98 66 / 0 0 0 0 
eln 97 61 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 
rdm 93 56 94 57 / 0 0 10 10 
lgd 90 55 88 57 / 0 0 10 10 
gcd 94 55 96 57 / 0 0 10 10 
dls 100 67 99 67 / 0 0 0 0 


PDT watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. flag warning until 9 am PDT this morning for waz675. 


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