Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
1153 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 


Short term...(tonight through sunday) 
issued at 332 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 


Morning upper air analysis indicated the dirty northwest flow 
continued over the central US. The shortwave trough that moved 
through the area yesterday was down in the Southern Plains of 
OK/Texas with the next upstream shortwave trough over South Dakota/western Nebraska. 
Early afternoon water vapor imagery indicated that this wave was 
now rotating through northeast Nebraska. The next upstream shortwave 
was located over southern Alberta/eastern Washington. The 20z surface analysis 
indicated weak low pressure over central Nebraska associated with the NE 
Nebraska shortwave. This was along a surface trough that has remained 
nearly stationary over the last 24 hours. 


Short term models are in good agreement in taking the NE Nebraska 
shortwave and associated surface low and dropping them southward during the 
overnight period. This should keep some forcing for ascent over at 
least the southern 2/3 of the County Warning Area this evening with continued scattered 
shower development. As we get later in the evening the showers 
should tend to decrease in coverage and be confined to areas near 
the Kansas/Nebraska border. As the surface low drops southward overnight we will see 
weak high pressure build in behind it and allow for the winds to 
go nearly calm in the northern forecast area...and with some clearing and 
recent rainfall we may see some fog develop and we have included 
that in the forecast for tonight. 


Will leave the next two days of the forecast dry but confidence is 
not overly great. There will be a weak shortwave trough moving 
through the area for both Friday and Sat afternoon...but stability is 
pretty high as moisture is fairly meager for July standards...and 
lapse rates are also substandard. We cannot rule out an isolated 
shower...especially in the western County Warning Area...but chances appear below 
schc at this time. Temperatures will remain well below normal for both Friday 
and the 4th of July. The next more significant trough will move 
into the northern plains on Sunday and allow for a cold front to 
move through the northern plains and into the County Warning Area on Sunday night. 
Warm air advection ahead of this system may lead to some isolated thunderstorms and rain on Sun night 
over mainly northeast Nebraska...but most of Sunday is looking dry and 
warmer as southern winds and moisture increase. 


Long term...(sunday night through thursday) 
issued at 332 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 


Longer range models remain consistent in moving the front slowly 
through the County Warning Area on Sunday night through Monday night with a good 
chance of showers and thunderstorms for most of the area and will 
continue with the likely probability of precipitation. The front should push south of our 
area on Monday night with dry weather returning for Tuesday and Wednesday 
before another chance of showers and thunderstorms to end this 
forecast period. Temperatures still look to be below normal 
through the end of the forecast for this time of year. 


&& 


Aviation...(06z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.) 
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 


Any lingering isolated showers will continue to diminish and not 
affect the taf sites overnight. Little to no winds and plenty of 
moisture at the surface could allow for the development of fog in 
addition to low ceilings across the area tonight...therefore IFR 
conditions will be likely between 06z and 15z. LIFR or vlifr 
conditions will also be possible at kofk. Visibilities and ceilings will 
gradually improve at all sites by early Friday afternoon. 


&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...boustead 
long term...boustead 
aviation...kg 



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