Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014 

Short term...(today through monday) 
issued at 323 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014 

Closed upper trough remains across the Pacific northwest while 
lead wave continues to lift northeast through the middle Missouri 
Valley region. Meanwhile...surface low across western Kansas with 
a warm front extending east northeast into northwest Missouri and 
southern Iowa will also lift north this morning...pushing a 
widespread area of showers and storms north of the front with it. 
The area of persistent rain should be almost north of the region 
by 12z...but could linger for an hour or two along and north and 
east of the Missouri River. Spotty showers also across western 
Kansas could move into eastern Nebraska yet this morning...which 
hrrr/rap both indicate. With warm front moving north of the 
region this afternoon...southerly winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour will help 
to boost temperatures to the upper 80s to middle 90s most locations. Most of 
the area will also stay dry early in the afternoon...but eastern 
Nebraska could begin to see a slight chance of a late afternoon 
thunderstorm...but better chance just west of the forecast area 
across central Nebraska. 

For tonight...a weak cool front approaches the region from the 
west. Forecast area will remain in on the warm/unstable side of 
the boundary...and while not expecting rain like we have had this 
morning...low level moist jet axis could trigger isolated storms 
for most areas...thus will maintain the 20 percent chance that we 
already had in the forecast. This weak front continues to make 
forward progress into the forecast area on Sunday. Atmosphere 
will likely be capped with h70 temperatures in the +11/+12 range...but 
could be enough support for a 20 percent chance along the front 
by late afternoon. 

The boundary stalls in the region Sunday night near or along i80... 
which again could provide enough focus for a 20/30 percent chance 
of storms. This boundary then lifts slightly north on Monday...which 
will delineate upper 70s north to middle 90s south across the forecast 
area...with decent bust potential based on where front sets 
up...but still providing a focus for thunderstorm development. 

Long term...(monday night through friday) 
issued at 323 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014 

Thunderstorm chances continue Monday night through Wednesday night 
as the aforementioned front remains stalled in the region...providing 
the necessary focus for additional storm development...especially 
north of the boundary through the period. This will result in scattered 
to numerous storms early in the week...especially across north/northwestern 
portions of the forecast area. Models also differ on timing the 
precipitation out of the region with European model (ecmwf) remaining very slow and definitely 
cooler...while the GFS sweeps the trough further east. Will go 
with a dry forecast Thursday/Friday for now...and will monitor 
later European model (ecmwf) model runs and adjust if necessary. 


Aviation...(18z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.) 
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014 

Area of MVFR ceilings behind exiting thunderstorm complex will hang 
around in kofk area for a couple of hours at beginning of taf 
cycle. Those ceilings should lift by middle afternoon leaving VFR 
conditions and southeast winds 15 to 25kt. A frontal boundary 
shifting into northeast Nebraska will triggered scattered 
thunderstorms between 02z and 06z with attendant MVFR/IFR 
potential. Isolated storms are possible over all of eastern 
Nebraska after 06z...but not expected to affect taf sites. 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...Dewald 
long term...Dewald 

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