Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
251 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014 


Short term...(today through saturday) 
issued at 250 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014 


Several timing issues will be the main concern in the short term. 
Initial focus will be band of showers and storms starting to 
spread into the area at 07z from central Nebraska. Models 
continue to suggest a steady progress of this system across the 
County Warning Area today in advance of the upper trough. Latest rap has the 
majority of the precipitation east of the area by 00z. Also may need a 
mention of fog for a short time this morning in west central Iowa 
between Harlan and Red Oak where visibility is reported near zero. Will 
monitor until issuance for any change as cloud cover begins to 
spread into that area. 


A new feature that has shown up in tonights models is a secondary 
band of showers behind the primary cold front associated with 
another short wave as it moves into Nebraska tonight. At this 
point have kept probability of precipitation on the low side and mainly for western and 
southern parts of the area as indicated by 00z models. 


Otherwise weather turns windy and cold behind the front tonight 
into Friday with good potential for frost or freeze across most 
of the area Saturday morning. At this time will continue mention 
of this potential in the severe weather potential statement and wait until later forecast for 
headlines. 


Long term...(saturday night through wednesday) 
issued at 250 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014 


Generally dry and warmer in the extended period until towards the 
end of the time frame when another frontal system with upper level 
support develops over the region. Probability of precipitation on the low side for now due 
to uncertainty in postion and timing. 


&& 


Aviation...(06z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.) 
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014 


VFR conditions at all taf sites. Showers will affect kofk...with 
possible thunderstorms and rain through about 11z. Thunderstorms and rain may impact klnk by 09z and 
koma by 10z. About a 2-5 hour wind for convection...then instability 
moves east and it should end as showers. Should also see MVFR 
ceiling develop. Fog could also impact koma before the rain 
arrives. When the real cold front arrives...winds substantially 
increase from the northwest with gusts up to 20 to 22 knots...with 
winds becoming less than 10 knots by 00z. 




&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...fobert 
long term...fobert 
aviation...Dewald 






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