Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
515 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014 


Short term...(tonight through sunday) 
issued at 308 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014 


Relatively benign weather in the short term with a persistent 
southerly flow over the next few days. Cloudy skies prevail across 
the region...which may be hard to get rid of as low level moisture 
remains locked in place almost through the period. NAM/hrrr/rap seem 
overdone on generating light precipitation tonight. While weak isentropic 
lift continues...condensation pressure deficits remain very large. 
Without ice crystals present due to the shallow moisture 
depth...any precipitation would be in the form of patchy freezing 
drizzle. Will maintain cloudy skies and introduce patchy fog later 
tonight through Friday morning...but will leave out mention of 
freezing drizzle until we get a clearer picture on its 
development. 


Similar conditions exist for Friday through Saturday. Low level 
moisture may be hard to scrub out...resulting in cloudy skies. 
Models are also similar in developing very light precipitation 
Friday night through early Saturday...again feel this may be 
overdone...but again if precipitation does develop it could be patchy 
freezing drizzle. This could be in response to a very weak clipper 
moving out of the northern rockies. Have added fog and will hold 
off any drizzle mention that far out. 


Another weak wave moves out of the central rockies Saturday night 
into Sunday. Models remain consistent in developing precipitation just 
east of our forecast area...thus will maintain dry conditions. 


Long term...(sunday night through thursday) 
issued at 308 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014 


The next clipper arrives in the area Sunday night...which then 
eventually closes off into a closed low that moves into the 
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions. This will bring a 
chance of rain Sunday night...possible freezing rain in northeast 
Nebraska...then a rain/snow mix on Monday as colder air begins to 
filter back into the region...and eventually some light snow 
showers Monday night through Tuesday...combined with increasingly 
windy conditions on northwest flow. That probably will be east of 
the area by Wednesday with dry weather... then the next trough 
will be moving out of the central rockies which could give US a 
shot of snow for Christmas...although models are also trending 
south with this with more impact across the Southern Plains and 
just giving US a glancing blow on the northern fringe. 


&& 


Aviation...(00z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.) 
Issued at 515 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014 


Ceilings are currently in the MVFR category with no restriction to 
visibility. Expect ceilings and visibilities to gradually decrease overnight... 
with at least tempo IFR conditions possible. Surface winds will be 
mainly light south or southeast but increase into the 8-11 knot 
range Friday. 


&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...Dewald 
long term...Dewald 
aviation...Miller 



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