Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
608 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


Short term...(today through sunday) 
issued at 310 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


Although temperatures remain primary focus in short term...fog and 
stratus this morning and possibly again Sunday morning remain 
secondary concerns. 


Early morning water vapor satellite imagery showed quite a bit of 
cirrus spilling southeast toward/across eastern nebr/western Iowa region. Although 
it had thinned as it moved over the forecast area through 07z...thickness of 
it upstream indicates at least some potential for high clouds 
impacting highs a bit...especially with weak mixing expected 
today and mainly northern zones where it could remain thickest. 
Although patchy fog also remains a threat early most areas...more 
widespread stratus/fog expected over western Iowa where it had moved 
into SW Iowa after 06z. This was supported by 05z hrrr...and to some 
degree the rap. However...the lower level relative humidity was forecast to 
shift/erode eastward through this morning per those models...probably 
limiting any impact to maximum temperatures. However...will issue a dense fog 
advisory far SW Iowa this morning and adjust according depending on 
whether or not it spreads or if conditions improve quickly. The 
pessimistic 00z NAM...regarding its widespread low cloud forecast 
for this morning much of the forecast area...was generally 
disregarded..although it was noted that stratus was developing west 
into southeastern nebr at 08z. Because of weak mixing and thicker cirrus 
threat...lowered maximum temperatures a bit central/northern zones. 


Wave tracking across southern Canada today still on track to push high 
pressure weakly into eastern nebr/western Iowa region tonight and model 
cross sections indicated less cirrus and much drier low level 
conditions Saturday. Although mixing potential not particularly 
strong given Erly component to winds...and lows likely to start 
out colder than this morning due to drier low level air...maximum 
temperatures possibly not that much cooler due to probably nearly full 
sunshine. However...kept highs a few degrees cooler than today 
because of the cooler start and absent strong mixing. 


00z GFS/European model (ecmwf) continued to indicate the threat of fog/low clouds 
returning by Sunday morning as low level moisture returns ahead of 
next upper trough. Although did not mention fog yet...did increase 
sky cover Sunday morning central/northern zones where it could linger the 
longest. Airmass recovers any cooling through lower troposphere 
observed Saturday. However....besides the increased low cloud potential 
..GFS indicated higher clouds returning as well and mixing due 
to winds could possibly be limited to far southern zones. Thus with the cloud 
and possibly weak mixing potential northern zones...kept maximum temperatures in 
lower 70s there with other readings close to those expected to 
today. 


Long term...(sunday night through thursday) 
issued at 310 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


Small precipitation chances were maintained in forecast Monday northern areas 
and all areas Monday night...partially to retain forecast 
continuity...as trough Cross Plains. However...model quantitative precipitation forecast per 00z 
GFS/European model (ecmwf) was limited Monday and mostly absent Monday night as 
strong middle level frontogenesis noted Monday afternoon behind front 
across the north shifts south/southeast of the forecast area Monday night. 
Also front appears to move a touch faster into southeastern zones so highs 
will be a few degrees cooler most areas than prior forecast. 


With 00z GFS/European model (ecmwf) now dry with little/no forcing...any precipitation 
mention for Tuesday was dropped...and a continued cool-down should 
persist. 


For several runs now a weak wave is forecast to cross the middle 
Missouri Valley on Wednesday providing area with modest warm 
advection. Although model/previous forecast blend allowed for a slight 
warm up over Tuesday...trends would indicate nudging upward more 
if warm advection clouds appear they will be limited. 


Earlier GFS lead the charge for a late week cool-down as trough 
sharpened to our east. European model (ecmwf) followed suit yesterday and continued the 
trend with 00z run. However...GFS has now flipped to a warmer 
pattern Thu/Fri. Forecast will continue to reflect a blend of 
the two to account for uncertainty. 


&& 


Aviation...(12z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.) 
Issued at 604 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


Vlifr ceilings/visby is just east of koma and most likely will not make 
it into the terminal this morning before pushing off to the 
east...but cannot rule out some MVFR visby through early this morning 
and will include a scattered vlifr deck in case the clouds do make it to 
koma. Some MVFR visby is also likely at klnk/kofk for a couple 
hours this morning. Otherwise will continue the mention of low level wind shear at 
koma/klnk through middle morning per koax vwp. Surface fnt will move through all 
3 taf sites by middle afternoon switching winds to the west and northwest. VFR 
conditions are then expected from this afternoon through the end of the 
period. 


&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...dense fog advisory until 10 am CDT this morning for iaz080-090- 
091. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...chermok 
long term...chermok 
aviation... 






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