Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
1153 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015 


Short term...(tonight through tuesday) 
issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015 


Overnight convection across central Nebraska really fouled the 
local environment for severe storms today. The convection resulted 
in a mesoscale high across the central part of the state. That...combined 
with extensive blowoff cloudiness has really limited the instability 
across the region today. Coordinated with Storm Prediction Center earlier in the day 
to lower the risk category and this stills seems on track. 


Lingering showers continue to make east southeast progress 
through middle afternoon...although they are weakening and they could 
very well fall apart in the next hour or two. There is a also 
definitive back edge to a weak upper wave moving through the middle 
Missouri Valley region...with noted subsidence behind it. Will 
maintain small probability of precipitation as this band of showers moves southeast toward 
i80 this evening...but overall coverage will probably be quite 
limited. Better storm coverage is likely across western Nebraska 
where much stronger instability exists...and this convection 
should remain west of the forecast area. The only other feature of 
note is a subtle upper wave further north across the northern 
plains...and while convection will likely develop there...it may 
remain north of our area overnight...although it could potentially 
affect western Iowa late tonight as it rolls out of the northern 
plains. Overall felt NAM/GFS had a very poor handle on sensible 
weather in the very short term...thus used a blend of 
hrrr/rap/hires arw/nmm models for pop trends tonight. 


The surface trough then moves through the forecast area during the 
day Sunday. Given the absence of convective debris...we should 
have substantially less cloud cover resulting in a hot and humid 
day with highs in the lower 90s. With cold front along/south of 
i80 at peak heating...will maintain slight chance of thunderstorms 
during the afternoon for those locations...with all activity 
pushing just south of the forecast area by Sunday evening. 


The front remains south of the area Monday...or stalled along the 
Kansas/NE border. Areas along or just north of the front will have a 
continued chance for showers/isolated storms...with cooler temperatures 
than Sunday. 


Long term...(tuesday night through saturday) 
issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015 


The extended period will be characterized by a daily chance of 
storms as the region remains generally on the cooler side of the 
surface boundary...that is forecast to generally remain south of 
the area. A reinforcing front middle week brings more rain chances. 
Forecast confidence by the end of the week is relatively low and 
precipitation chances should be waning by Saturday...but model blends 
resulted in near climatological probability of precipitation by then. 


&& 


Aviation...(06z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.) 
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015 


Not much change from previous thinking. Isolated thunderstorms possible 
the next 24 hours but chances too low to mention in tafs at this 
time. Look for VFR conditions with any ceilings expected to be 
above 8000 feet. Best chance of thunderstorms and rain would be with wind shift 
Sunday afternoon/evening. 


&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...Dewald 
long term...Dewald 
aviation...Miller 






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