Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
1141 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015 


Short term...(today through sunday) 
issued at 230 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015 


Temperatures will be the primary concern through the short term 
period. The much advertised warmup still looks to get going today 
as the Arctic surface high moves into the Ohio Valley and the low- 
level flow over the Central Plains becomes southwest leading to 
decent mixing with a good amount of sunshine. Mixing to around 900 
mb is expected today yielding highs upper 40s far NE to the upper 
50s west...and very close to previous forecasts. A weak shortwave 
trough /currently over Alberta per early morning WV imagery/ will move 
across the northern plains tonight allowing a weak front to cross the forecast area 
during the day on Sat. Little overall cooling is expected as 
mixing will offset the weak cold air advection during the 
day...with highs in the 50s once again expected. 


The next shortwave trough will move into the northern plains on Sat 
night and spread a bit better middle to high level moisture...along 
with some large-scale support for ascent across the region. Most 
models are dry for our forecast area...but the ec does indicate some threat of 
some light precipitation along the South Dakota/Nebraska border. We will leave the 
forecast dry at this time with the best forcing indicated to the north and 
east of our area. Temperatures will likely be a bit cooler on sun 
than Sat with the surface winds turning southeast behind the fnt on Sat 
limiting mixing. Although the GFS appears to cool compared to the 
ec/Gem on Sunday. 


Long term...(sunday night through thursday) 
issued at 230 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015 


Even warmer temperatures are expected through the extended as western 
US ridge on Monday spreads eastward through the end of this forecast 
period. The GFS continues to want to show a much stronger system 
moving along the US/Canadian border on Monday night...which leads to 
a stronger cold front moving into the forecast area on Tuesday. This solution is 
discounted for now as it is not supported by the ec/Gem or the 00z 
GFS ensembles. Thus we will go with the warmer ec/Gem solution for 
Tue/Wed/Thu. 


&& 


Aviation...(18z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.) 
Issued at 1126 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015 


VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds at 
all three taf sites will trend toward the northwest around 08kt to 
12kt between 14z and 16z. 


&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...boustead 
long term...boustead 
aviation...Meyer 






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