Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
640 am CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016 


Short term...(today through saturday) 
issued at 322 am CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016 


Forecast challenges in the short term will be how far north of the 
surface front will the precipitation spread into the forecast 
area each period...then precipitation becoming more widespread 
Friday and Friday night...along with cloud cover and temperatures. 


Surface high pressure was over the western High Plains with the 
surface front near Wichita and Kansas City. We are on the cool 
side of the front with temperatures in the 50s and 60s with 
similar dewpoints. The h5 trough extended from the lowest 
pressures over Manitoba southward toward Colorado and back toward 
Idaho. Shortwave trough energy tracks across Kansas through 
tonight. 


Through tonight...the precipitable water values around 1.5 inches are generally 
over the southeast parts of the state and begin moving northward 
Friday. H85 dewpoints reflect this with moist 12 to 16 degree c 
values across parts of Kansas and Missouri with 8 to 12 degree 
dewpoints in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, with drier 
conditions farther north. Southwest flow aloft will transport the 
moisture north of the front into our County Warning Area. 


The latest runs on the hires models continue to support the 
highest pops through tonight near the Kansas border and more 
isolated showers toward i80. 


As the trailing trough deepens Friday, south flow increases and 
the h85 front lifts northward. The Theta-E axis over Kansas lifts 
northward into South Dakota and Minnesota through Friday night. As 
this shortwave pushes through Friday and Friday night...have high 
pops across the area. 


With a more zonal flow for the weekend...still some chance for 
isolated precip. 


Cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s...then some warmer 80s 
for parts of the area Saturday. 


Long term...(saturday night through wednesday) 
issued at 322 am CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016 


Warmer highs in the 80s are forecast for the extended with 
periodic chances for thunderstorms. The pattern does not have any 
strong fronts push through. Did mention some patchy fog Saturday 
night and Sunday morning. 


Much of the weather attention will probably center on the track 
of tropical activity heading toward Florida sun-Wed. 


&& 


Aviation...(12z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.) 
Issued at 640 am CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016 


Generally expect VFR conditions...especially for kofk and koma 
through the period. Some MVFR visibilities are likely and MVFR 
ceilings possible in the precipitation. Radar loop early this 
morning showed an area of rain showers and thunderstorms and rain moving northeast into far 
southeast Nebraska. The chances for rain today are the highest at 
klnk and will include a tempo group for rain showers there. Main area of 
thunder could stay just to the south...but will amend if needed. 
Rain chances farther north seemed too low to include in the tafs 
at this time. 


&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...zapotocny 
long term...zapotocny 
aviation...Miller 






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