Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 

Short term...(today through saturday) 
issued at 320 am CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 

Forecast concerns today will be showers/sprinkles ending, clouds 
today and Friday along with temperatures, then warmer weather 
for the weekend. 

At 06z...two h7 waves were over eastern Nebraska and 
the second over west central Nebraska. Ahead of each of these 700 mb 
wind shifts were a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms in 
southeast Nebraska. The hi-res arw/nmm picked up on this first 
area yesterday (although not strong enough) and the hrrr was 
catching on to the trend of increasing coverage as well. 

The first band of showers/trailing sprinkles will generally be 
moving southeast of the forecast area around 12z or so; the start 
of forecast period, while the second area has progressed into 
central Nebraska. During the morning the progs weaken this lagging 
energy in the northwest flow aloft. The GFS/hi-res arw/nmm limp 
the precip toward Antelope County before dissipating it. Will 
leave in some low pops/sprinkles/drizzle toward Neligh and adjust 
as needed per latest WSR-88D/model trends. Low clouds are expected 
to remain over parts of northeast Nebraska into early afternoon 
with mid clouds for parts of the rest of the cwa. The Oma forecast 
soundings are moist this morning through 09z...then dry out...then 
moisten up again this afternoon and again Friday within the strong 
warm air advection regime. Much cooler today with highs in the 50s 
to lower 60s. 

Cooler temperatures for tonight as the surface high pressure 
system settles southward. Lows are forecast in the 30s. The 
growing season has ended with most areas experiencing a freeze 
earlier this month, no frost/freeze headlines are done for the 

Mid level ridging increases with thickening clouds Friday in an 
area of h7 warm air advection. A wave tops the ridge across the 
Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. Precipitation should be 
well to our northeast where the better vertical motion is although 
there could be some virga with the waa clouds. 850 mb temperatures 
start out at 4-6deg c. And by 00z warm to 8 to 10deg c. Forecast 
soundings show better mixing in the western part of the forecast 
area where highs should range from 65 to 70 toward ofk/lnk/olu and 
farther east into western Iowa, readings should top out 60 to 65. 

Long term...(saturday through wednesday) 
issued at 320 am CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 

The mid tropospheric ridge is over the Central Plains through the 
weekend although a shortwave tracking across southern Canada into 
the northern states does dampen it and drag a front through 
Sunday. Increased winds behind the front Sunday. Above normal 
temperatures and dry conditions are forecast through the weekend 
with highs in the 60s and 70s. 

Once that shortwave progresses to the Great Lakes, the 
ridge re-builds for Monday. Monday night into Tuesday unsettled 
weather begins to return to parts of the plains with some isolated 
showers and thunderstorms. The GFS is stronger with the shortwave 
Tuesday that breaks down the ridge compare to the ec, however by 
Tuesday night they are in better agreement with the thunderstorm 
activity from the Missouri River into Iowa. High remain above 
normal Monday through Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s. 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon) 
issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016 

High pressure will settle over the region through 06z then move 
east thereafter with southerly winds returning on the backside of 
the high. A period of MVFR cigs likely at kofk through 00z as 
secondary short wave trough over the eastern Dakotas shifts east 
into the upper Midwest during that time. VFR cigs expected at both 
koma and klnk into the evening before dissipating with transition 
of Dakotas trough to the east. 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...zapotocny 
long term...zapotocny 

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