Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
624 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015 

Short term...(tonight through monday) 
issued at 250 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015 


Latest surface observation this afternoon indicate middle level ceilings...accompanied by 
light rain...was gradually pushing into the County Warning Area from SW to NE. Main 
issue though is determining the areal coverage of possible precipitation 
tonight. Rap13 along with hires awr/nmm are advertising brunt of 
activity will pretty much be focused over the western periphery of the 
County Warning Area where 305k upglide/low conditions pressure deficits will be most prevalent. 
There is at least though a small chance of some measurable precipitation 
making its way into western Iowa will go with token 20s to 
the east. In addition...rap13 showing none instability during the 
overnight mention of thunder not needed. 

Saturday through Monday 

Weak isentropic lift continues over the forecast area through the 
weekend. Moisture at the low levels fills in thus spotty showers 
will be possible through the day Saturday...although instability 
remains very meager. The next impulse will also be moving north 
out of the Southern Plains by Monday afternoon...which should 
increase precipitation chances in southeast Nebraska south of i80 
Saturday afternoon...then spreads northward along the Missouri 
River Saturday evening...with just spotty showers further west or 
even areas of drizzle. Again...instability remains very 
marginal...and this would mostly be showers...but h850 lifted 
index values are just slightly negative...thus could not rule out 
a rumble of thunder. 

Low clouds continue Sunday with a small chance of showers and 
thunderstorms lingering. The low level moisture does try to scour 
out through the day Sunday...but there remains decent middle level 
moisture...thus still mostly cloudy during the afternoon. Believe 
Sunday afternoon should be mostly dry. 

Small thunderstorm chances remain Sunday night...but the better 
chance for storms will exist for Monday as temperatures warm into the middle 
70s and instability finally reaches the area with MUCAPES 
increasing to 1000-2000 j/kg. This will also be ahead of a cold 
front that moves into the region Monday night. 

Long term...(tuesday through friday) 
issued at 250 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015 

The cold front should still be in the forecast along i80 
Tuesday...while the next weak upper trough swings through the 
Southern Plains. This could give enough support for a slight 
chance of showers/storms still. Wave should be just far enough 
south and east of the area to go dry both Tuesday night and 
Wednesday. The next wave moves into the area Wednesday night 
through Thursday...and another wave moving in Thursday night 
through Friday with additional rain chances. 


Aviation...(00z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.) 
Issued at 630 PM CDT Friday may 22 2015 

Scattered to isolated showers will be around the area this 
evening...with mainly VFR ceilings. Visibilities in the precipitation may drop 
down into the MVFR category. Look for ceilings to decrease later 
tonight...then remain mostly MVFR on Saturday. 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...Dee/Dewald 
long term...Dewald 

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