Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
530 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016 

Short term...(today through monday) 
issued at 245 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016 

Precipitation chances and temperatures will provide the primary forecast 
challenges in this period. 

Main features noted from the upper air charts last evening 
included the following. At 300 mb...a jet streak of around 145 
knots was punching southeast from southeast Minnesota. Winds of 
about 100 knots from the southwest were over Oregon...associated 
with the next shortwave trough of concern. At 500 mb...12 hour 
height falls of up to 100 meters were over southwest British 
Columbia...while a ridge stretched from The Four Corners region up 
into Alberta and Saskatchewan. A modest thermal gradient was noted 
over the northern and Central Plains at 700 mb and 850 mb. Coldest 
values at 850 mb were around -39 c on the south side of James Bay. 

Surface analysis at 08z showed a ridge of cold high pressure from 
the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota down into our area. 
Winds were from the northeast or east...with temperatures in the 
single digits and teens. Pressure falls were highest over the 
High Plains. Radar echoes had been increasing over South Dakota 
and parts of northern Nebraska. 

Today...expect that some light snow will occur in northeast 
Nebraska. Chance for measurable snow seems highest this afternoon 
near the South Dakota border...where up to around half an inch of 
snow may accumulate. Drier air over our southern counties should 
limit precipitation there. A band of snow should develop in association 
with an area of middle level frontogenesis on an axis from around 
Yankton to Denison by middle to late afternoon. Look for highs in 
the upper teens to middle 20s. 

Best combination of lift and moisture with this next shortwave 
trough should stay to our north across South Dakota...with the 
highest chances for snow being there tonight. Best chances spread 
into central and eastern Iowa by Sunday morning. Our area will be 
in the fringes of the best dynamics for snow. 00z NAM was probably 
a little too bullish with its snow amounts in our area tonight... 
but will go with up to an inch of snow accumulation in some of 
our northern zones and possibly parts of western Iowa tonight. 
Some light snow should linger Sunday morning...mainly in western 
Iowa...but that quickly moves east. Expect a decent temperature 
recovery in the afternoon as winds turn to the west. 

Currently have Sunday night and Monday dry for now. 

Long term...(monday night through friday) 
issued at 245 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016 

00z runs of European model (ecmwf) and GFS were in good agreement bringing precipitation in 
the area Monday night. Precipitation type likely rain or a mix...based on 
model forecast soundings so will go with a chance of light rain 
and light snow. 

Precipitation chances seemed too low to mention for the rest of the week... 
but may need to adjust that later. A fairly potent system should 
move through Thursday night/Friday...but moisture may be limited. 

Middle tropospheric ridge over the western United States Tuesday 
should build eastward into our area by Thursday...while a trough 
digs along the West Coast. Most model guidance is in very good 
agreement with that. Temperatures are expected to moderate to the 
40s and 50s...with some 60s possible late in the week. 


Aviation...(12z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.) 
Issued at 525 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016 

Middle clouds will linger through the day with generally VFR 
conditions as low levels remain fairly dry. Some radar returns 
show potential for light snow this morning but flurries at best 
would be possible at the taf sites through 18z. Ceilings should 
lower across the taf sites this evening and overnight but still 
remain in the VFR to MVFR range. A better chance for snow will be 
introduced after 06z tonight at kofk and koma with lesser chances 
at klnk. There is also a small potential for low level wind shear 
this evening and overnight but will leave that out for now. 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...Miller 
long term...Miller 

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