Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area 
1009 PM PST sun Nov 23 2014 


Synopsis...strong high pressure will build over California 
through Wednesday with seasonably warm afternoons followed by 
clear and cool nights. Dry weather will continue on Thanksgiving 
as the ridge flattens and temperatures cool back to seasonal 
normals. Increasing clouds Friday with a chance of rain in the 
North Bay by Friday night. Rain chances increase for the Bay area 
and all of northern California next weekend. 


&& 


Discussion...as of 8:34 PM PST Sunday...other than some high 
clouds expecting mostly clear skies with cool overnight lows 
tonight. Current 24 hour trend shows temperatures already running about 
5 degrees cooler than last night and dew points are now down into 
the lower 40s which represents about 10 degrees drier than last 
night. The dry air in place and light offshore flow should mean 
little or no fog formation overnight with current fog product 
showing the SAC valley fairly fog free at this time. The surface 
gradient is currently 0.4 mb offshore from sfo-SAC as evidenced by 
a 6 knot east winds at koak last hour. 


High pressure to build Monday through Wednesday with sunny and mild 
days followed by clear and cool nights. Expecting Tuesday and Wednesday 
to be the warmest days with most areas from the upper 60s to upper 
70s and even some lower 80s across Monterey County. Good travel 
weather across the state leading up to Thanksgiving. 


On Thursday the ridge flattens with only some subtle cooling back 
to more seasonable readings in the 60s for the Holiday. 00z GFS is 
trickling in and brings first chance of rain to the North Bay 
Friday night. Will await full 00z guidance on middle shift to mull 
over the possibility of wet weather for the return home from 
grandmas house. 


&& 


Previous discussion...as of 2:39 PM PST Sunday...its a pleasant Sunday 
afternoon in the Bay area with temperatures generally in the 60s. 
The biggest change is in the dew-points compared to yesterday with 
current dew point trends from 15 to 25 degrees lower than 
yesterday leading to a much drier airmass. This trend should keep 
fog to an absolute minimum tonight with some dry offshore winds blowing 
in the hills as well. The offshore winds will be light across the 
Bay area especially in comparison to Southern California where red 
flag warnings and high wind warnings are in place. 


The same high pressure impacting socal with warm and dry weather 
will build over northern and central California at least through 
Wednesday. The weather looks very quiet which should be ideal for 
any Thanksgiving travel plans...whether by car or plane. Even fog 
and low clouds look to be at a minimum the next several days with 
the dry airmass and offshore winds. Afternoons will be sunny and 
warm with comfortable readings from the upper 60s to upper 70s 
across most of the district. European model (ecmwf) bias corrected MOS even spits 
out an 80 for Salinas on Wednesday. 


Thanksgiving day looks nice as dry and quiet weather will 
continue. The ridge will flatten and winds will turn back to 
onshore but nearly all locations will enjoy sunny skies and temperatures 
in the 60s for Thanksgiving day. 


All eyes will then turn to the long range. The 12z European model (ecmwf) has 
arrived and trended much wetter while also showing pretty good 
consistency with the Gem and GFS models. Were still in the 5 day 
forecast range so will try and gracefully follow the model 
solutions here. If we see solid consistency for another 24 hours 
confidence will start to increase. Right now models are painting 
an initial front into the North Bay Friday night into Saturday. 
Then another stronger system to impact the entire district later 
Saturday into Sunday. Its too far out to get cute with details but 
suffice to say those with travel plans back home will want to stay 
abreast of next weekends forecast. 


&& 


Aviation...as of 10:09 PM PST Sunday...looks good for aviation 
weather tonight and Monday. Dry air is in place. Dewpoint temperatures 
have tumbled down to the 40s over the area. 


Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. 


Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo. 


Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR. 


&& 


Marine...as of 8:15 PM PST Sunday...high pressure off the 
California coast will result in generally weak northwesterly flow 
through the first half of the week. Wind speeds will be slightly 
stronger over the southern waters through Monday evening before 
diminishing Monday night. Winds will then become southerly by 
Thursday as the high pressure moves into the Great Basin. 


&& 


Mtr watches/warnings/advisories... 
... Pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm 


&& 


$$ 


Public forecast: rww 
aviation/marine: canepa 


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