Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area 
516 PM PDT sun Mar 29 2015 


Synopsis...continued mostly clear and mild into Monday. A dry cold 
front will pass through northern California by Tuesday and 
Wednesday ushering in a noted cooling trend with highs mainly in 
the 60s to middle 70s well inland along with gusty northwest winds 
along the coast and in the hills. The trough will shift eastward 
by the end of the week with a rebound in temperatures for Thursday 
and Friday. Dry weather is forecast at least through Saturday. 


&& 


Discussion...as of 2:40 PM PDT Sunday...its another sunny and 
mild to warm afternoon across the Bay area with inland cities now 
into the low 80s with plenty of 60s along the coast and 70s around 
the Bay. Northerly gradient is still around 6 mb down the coast 
and keeping the ocean free of stratus for the most part. There may 
be some patchy fog along the San Mateo coast and around Monterey 
Bay by morning but for the most part expect a clear and calm night. 


No big changes in the weather for Monday but if anything 
temperatures should trend a few degrees cooler by afternoon as 
onshore flow gets more firmly re-established and 850 mb temperatures 
start to cool slightly. 


A fairly potent upper trough will move into the Pacific northwest 
by Tuesday with a dry cool front and noted airmass cooling across 
the Bay area and northern California. Highs on Tuesday mainly in 
the 60s with perhaps some lower 70s with brisk winds off the ocean 
and in the hills. 


Seasonably cool and somewhat blustery winds will persist on Wednesday 
with a strong surface pressure gradient across the state and a 
cool upper trough aloft. It'll be a fitting start to the month as 
April is often a windy time of year around here as cold upper 
troughs pass over the region. 


By Thursday afternoon the temperature trend should reverse with 
the flow turning increasingly offshore and a thermal trough 
developing along the coast. Initially the airmass aloft will be 
cool so no dramatic warming is expected but skies should be 
Crystal clear with no marine layer of note. 


More noted warming should then be felt by Friday as the airmass 
aloft begins to warm under riding with a thermal trough along the 
coast through Friday morning. 


The upper troughs that pass through far northern California this 
week...although lacking little or no precipitation may actually signal 
the beginning of a pattern change of note as the persistent West 
Coast ridge retrogrades westward. 


The pattern looks to stay dry next Saturday with seasonable 
temperatures. By next Sunday a broad trough approaches the region 
with increased confidence for some rain chances perhaps by next 
Sunday or so. Long range models all more or less then drive a more 
potent shortwave down the coast by around April 6-8th. For the 
first time since perhaps last winter a more typical Gulf of Alaska 
system may be in the cards. Its still over a week away so plenty 
of room for error here. Pna teleconnection going negative with mjo 
out into phase 3 along with with general agreement from Gem/GFS 
and European model (ecmwf) puts confidence at least in the medium category this far out. 


&& 


Aviation...as of 5:05 PM PDT Sunday...clear skies prevail across 
the region with high clouds poised to move in this evening. 
Moderate seabreeze will continue through this afternoon into early 
evening becoming light and locally variable overnight. Patchy low 
clouds and fog possible early Monday morning along the coast and 
locally through coastal gaps and valleys resulting in low visibilities 
and ceilings. 


Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. Moderate west winds around 15 to 20 knots 
expected to persist through early evening. Light winds expected 
overnight. 


Sfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo. 


Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR. Moderate west winds around 10 
to 12 knots will persist through early evening. IFR ceilings expected to 
return after 10z. Ceilings will lower to LIFR to vlifr after 
13z.Clearing expected around 17z. 


&& 


Marine...as of 02:03 PM PDT Sunday...strong and gusty northwest 
winds will persist over the coastal waters today and into much of 
next week as high pressure remains over the eastern Pacific. These 
strong winds will produce locally steep fresh swells and short 
period seas. 


&& 


Mtr watches/warnings/advisories... 
... Pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 10-60 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 10-60 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm 


&& 


$$ 


Public forecast: rww 
aviation: CW 
marine: rgass 


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