Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area 
457 am PDT Thursday Oct 8 2015 

Synopsis...dry weather conditions along with a warming trend 
will persist through late in the week as high pressure builds over 
the state. Temperatures will hold steady through the weekend as 
the ridge flattens and zonal flow develops aloft. 

&& of 3:13 am PDT upper level ridge 
will build over California today resulting in a warming and drying 
trend for the district. Highs today are forecast to range from the 
70s at the coast to the 80s and 90s inland. A couple of degrees of 
warming is then expected on Friday...but as the upper ridge 
flattens somewhat during the weekend...highs are expected to level 
off. upper level low over southern Arizona will rotate 
south and then west across northern Mexico over the next several 
days...and end up west of Baja California California by Sunday. The upper low 
will then slowly work its way north and west...ending up west of 
the Southern California coast by Tuesday. Earlier model runs had 
this low closer to the coast by this time. Current runs of the 
European model (ecmwf) and GFS keep the low farther off shore...thus precipitation chances 
for our area during the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame look less 
likely. The closed low is prognosticated to continue meandering off the 
Southern California coast through the end of the week before 
finally opening up into a trough and moving inland over Southern 
California by next weekend 

&& of 4:58 am PDT Thursday...high clouds continue to 
rotate around an area of high pressure centered off of the 
California coast this morning. So far the dynamics associated 
with the circulation around the high are mixing the marine 
layer...suppressing the development of low clouds. With the marine 
layer mixed out don't expect low clouds to develop this morning 
and the high clouds will significantly reduce the threat of 
radiation fog formation. 

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR conditions and light winds expected 
through the period. 

Confidence is high. 

Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo. 

Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR conditions and light winds 
expected through the period. A slight risk of reduced visible will be 
possible between 1200 and 1600z this morning at kmry. 

Confidence is high. 

&& of 3:01 am PDT Thursday...generally light to 
moderate winds are expected to prevail across the coastal waters 
this morning. The surface pressure gradient will strengthen this 
afternoon...resulting in increasing northerly winds especially 
over the southern waters. Gentle seas will persist into the 
weekend with a mixed swell. A moderate period west to 
southwesterly swell generated by hurricane oho will enter the 
waters beginning roughly Friday lasting into the weekend. 


Mtr watches/warnings/advisories... 
... Pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm from 2 PM 
Small Craft pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 2 PM 



Public forecast: Sims 
aviation: Larry 
marine: Larry 

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