000 
fxus66 kmtr 241142 
afdmtr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area 
342 am PST Tue Jan 24 2017 


Synopsis...isolated showers likely to linger this morning across 
the region and give way to clearing skies this afternoon and 
evening. Dry weather conditions return region-wide into Wednesday 
before a passing system brings a slight chance of precipitation to 
the northern portion of the region Wednesday night into Thursday. 
Otherwise, dry weather conditions likely into the upcoming 
weekend. 


&& 


Discussion...as of 02:46 am PST Tuesday...showers persist early 
this morning over the Monterey Bay and off of the San 
Francisco/San Mateo coast as well as the North Bay coast. These 
lingering showers are in response to the back end of the mid/upper 
level trough pushing inland. Given the cold and unstable air mass 
aloft, showers that pushed inland early in the night continued to 
produce small hail and kmux 88d radar indicated weak rotation with 
some of the cells off of the coast. However, does appear these 
cells have weakened over the past hour or so. In addition, snow 
levels have been around or slightly below 3,000 ft through the 
night with snow showers likely impacting the higher elevations 
across the region. 


Showers are forecast to diminish in coverage through the morning 
with clearing skies by this afternoon/evening as a weak short-wave 
ridge builds aloft. With clearing skies overnight, colder 
temperatures are likely into Wednesday morning with patchy fog 
possible in the North Bay and East Bay valleys. Should see most 
areas fall into the 30s by sunrise Wednesday with lower 30s in the 
coldest, inland valley locations. Meanwhile, around the San 
Francisco Bay upper 30s to lower 40s are expected. 


By Wednesday night, a weak system is forecast to past inland 
north of the region and bring a slight chance of precipitation to 
the northern portion of the region. Overall, rainfall will be 
limit with this system and most locations across the region will 
remain dry. By Thursday morning, a few lingering showers will be 
possible along the coast and into the coastal hills. Otherwise, 
the ridge will build in stronger over the region through late week 
and maintain dry weather conditions. 


The ridge will then build inland further and aid in warming 
temperatures region-wide this upcoming weekend. Could see 
afternoon temperatures warm above seasonal averages by Saturday 
and Sunday. The ridge will likely hold in place even to early next 
week with many areas warming into the 60s. The forecast models 
continue to hint at the ridge breaking down and troughing 
returning to the West Coast by the middle of next week. Thus, 
precipitation may return to the central California coast late in 
the forecast period, however confidence remains low at this time. 


&& 


Aviation...as of 3:42 am PST Tuesday...scattered showers will 
gradually diminish as a low pressure system continues to slide 
south down the coast. The departing low will take the mid-level 
cigs with it leading to mostly clear skies this afternoon. 
Conditions will continue to improve through today as this system 
exits the region and high pressure builds in. Moderate to high 
confidence. 


Vicinity of ksfo....mostly VFR conditions expected. A stray 
shower cannot be ruled out this morning. Light offshore winds will 
veer onshore once again this afternoon. Moderate confidence. 


Sfo bridge approach...similar to sfo. 


Monterey Bay terminals...mostly VFR cigs and vsby expected through 
the period. A stray shower cannot be ruled out this morning. 
Light offshore winds will veer onshore once again this afternoon. 
Moderate confidence. 


&& 


Marine...as of 3:00 am PST Tuesday...scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms will continue to diminish this morning as a 
low pressure system continues to slide south down the coast and 
through our coastal waters. Large westerly swell will persist 
through tonight. Another long period swell will move into our 
region on Wednesday. 


&& 


Mtr watches/warnings/advisories... 
... Surf advisory...caz006-505-509-529-530 
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...mry Bay 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm 
Small Craft Advisory...rough bar advisory for sf bar 


&& 


$$ 


Public forecast: rgass 
aviation/marine: CW 




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