Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
1040 PM EDT Tuesday may 24 2016 


Update... 
the aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 231 PM EDT Tue may 24 2016 


Upper waves will interact with an increasingly moist and unstable 
atmosphere to produce daily chances for showers and thunderstorms 
through the next week. Temperatures will remain above average 
through the period. 


&& 


Near term.../rest of tonight/ 
issued at 935 PM EDT Tue may 24 2016 


Showers and thunderstorms from the first wave have dissipated, 
leaving perhaps a few sprinkles in the far southwest forecast area. 
Not much convection left in southern Illinois either. 


However, rapid refresh model still indicates low chances for 
convection overnight. Given this, and with another upper wave still 
moving in tonight, am not ready to go dry even with little 
convection upstream. Did lower pops some and delayed them over much 
of the area until overnight. Removed thunder from this evening 
(based on what's out there now) but kept isolated mention overnight. 


Adjusted cloud cover as necessary with some decent cloud cover 
south. This required some minor adjustments of low temperatures as 
well. 


Previous discussion follows... 




One upper wave was slowly moving toward the southwest forecast area 
this afternoon. This wave has been producing a few showers. More 
widespread showers and storms were across Missouri with another 
wave, but these are moving south of east toward better instability. 


The atmosphere across the area remains relatively dry, and it will 
take a while for it to moisten up. 


Went slight chance pops this evening over southwest portions of the 
area with the first wave moving into the area with weak forcing and 
limited moisture. 


Overnight increased pops into low end chance category most locations 
as the next wave moves in. Forcing is not that great and 
instability will be low. 


Generally stayed close to MOS for low temperatures. 


&& 


Short term.../Wednesday through Friday/ 
issued at 231 PM EDT Tue may 24 2016 


Focus remains on chances for rain through the period. Models are 
similar with the big picture but, as has been the case, differ on 
the details of upper waves and resultant rain chances. Confidence is 
lower in these setups, so stayed close to a blend. 


With the lower confidence in timing and location of upper waves, 
went chance pops most area throughout the short term. Northern areas 
might see better chances for rain Wednesday night as a warm front 
passes to the northwest. 


Warm advection will allow temperatures to climb into the lower and 
middle 80s for highs during the period. A model blend reflects this 
well. (Of course, temperatures may be affected by any advection that 
does occur.) Friday may be even warmer if the NAM pans out as it is 
forecasting highs near 90. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 


Issued at 155 PM EDT Tue may 24 2016 


Warm and humid pattern looks to remain in place during this period 
as European model (ecmwf) suggests strong ridging remains in place across the East 
Coast. This allows a warm and humid southerly flow to persist 
through the period. Minimal support for precipitation will pass 
across Indiana during the period as weak short waves aloft appear 
to be unorganized and along with surface features which really 
remain under the influence of high pressure. Although given 
diurnal heating and the moist air mass in place...afternoon and 
evening showers and storms cannot be ruled out. 


Best chance for showers and storms looks to be on Saturday...as a 
weak trough pushes through the upper flow in the upper Midwest. 
Indiana is not in the best position to benefit from the forcing 
for precip...however European model (ecmwf) suggests a weakly negatively tilted 
upper trough passing on Saturday. Thus expect highest pops through 
the period on that day. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for 250300z taf issuance/... 


Issued at 1040 PM EDT Tue may 24 2016 


Pushed back the timing on vcsh at kind by a few hours. Previous 
discussion follows... 


Mainly VFR conditions through the period. Forecast soundings and 
MOS guidance indicates some potential for MVFR fog late during the 
overnight at klaf so brought in 4sm 9-13z there. Elsewhere 
increasing clouds should negate any fog development. Hi res models 
are showing scattered showers developing around all sites but klaf 
around 4-6z so added in a vcsh during that time, but time heights 
and upstream obs don't show much in the way of restrictions so 
kept VFR during that time. Looks like there could be a lull in 
activity late morning before some scattered thunderstorms develop 
in the afternoon. Kept a thunderstorms in the vicinity going starting around 20z at the 
sites for this, but again with scattered storms and many places 
missing out did not add any restrictions with it. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...50 
near term...50 
short term...50 
long term....puma 
aviation...cp 



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