Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
725 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 


Update... 


The aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 1257 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 


An extremely slow moving low pressure system will stay close to 
Indiana until Sunday. A high pressure system should traverse our 
state from east to west Monday through Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term (tonight)... 
issued at 1257 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 


The main issue is pops. 


There is extremely good model agreement about a upper low pressure 
staying over the area. This could cause convection, but nighttime 
cooling should make the chance lower than during the day. 


There are notable differences in the pop guidance. For instance the 
mav has likely in places where the met has chance and visa versa. 
With no model clearly better in the deterministic fields, a 
consensus forecast is best so the consall pop will be used. 


Rain or not, the night will be mostly cloudy due to the low aloft. 


Background deterministic fields and statistical guidance are all 
very close with temperatures, and all support using a consensus. 


&& 


Short term (thursday through saturday)... 
issued at 1257 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 


The models agree in maintaining low pressure over the area both at 
the surface and aloft. Rain chances are the main forecast issue. 


With the low pressure around, this will be a cloudy spell with the 
rain chances being controlled by relatively subtle features 
difficult to forecast. This means consensus pops should be 
Superior overall. 


The fields controlling temperatures are similar between the models. 
Exact values will be sensitive to if and when rain falls. Breaks in 
clouds, even if brief, would also have a significant impact on 
temperatures. All this indicates consensus will be the best 
forecast, with possible errors of 2-3 degrees. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... 
issued at 258 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 


The upper low which will bring US cool and showery weather through 
Saturday will move on to the east early next week. An upper ridge 
will temporarily build across Indiana Monday and Tuesday before 
another system starts to move our way later next week. 


Will continue low chances of showers over northeast sections 
Saturday night and Sunday. But the rest of the long term 
period will be mostly dry with high pressure in control. An 
approaching frontal system may bring a slight chance of showers 
western sections late Wednesday and to all areas by Thursday. 


Temperatures will become warmer by the middle of next week with 
highs approaching 80 Tuesday and in the lower 80s some areas 
Wednesday. Lows ill be in the 50s most periods...and then 
near 60 by the middle of next week. Generally stayed close to 
super blend temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 29/00z tafs/... 
issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 


VFR initially will give way to MVFR and periods of IFR conditions 
overnight into Thursday. 


Upper low will continue to spin over the region through the period 
with potential for some showers and widespread cloud cover. 


Winds throughout the period will be 10kt or less, generally with a 
significant northerly component. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...jk 
near term...jk 
short term...jk 
long term...jh 
aviation...nield 



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