Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
335 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015 


Update... 
the synopsis...near term and short term sections have been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 333 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015 


Drier air and upper ridging will move in for today and tonight 
before the stormy pattern reasserts itself with thunderstorms likely 
to start the weekend. Above normal temperatures for the next few 
days will be replaced with below normal temperatures for the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /today through tonight/... 


Issued at 333 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015 


Drier air will continue to move south across central Indiana through 
today as surface high pressure and ridging aloft build across the 
region. Skies remain mostly clear across the northwest County Warning Area and 
partly cloudy across the southeast...closer to the stalled frontal 
boundary draped across the Ohio River valley. 


Upper ridging will then slide through the area tonight and this 
should allow for dry conditions to continue. 


As for temperatures went slightly warmer than MOS for highs 82-85. 
And generally stuck close to guidance for lows in the middle 60s. 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Saturday night/... 


Issued at 333 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015 


After this brief dry respite during the near term...a return to 
the progressive pattern brings a series of upper waves through that 
will keep the forecast a wet one. A cold front will approach Friday 
night and move through on Saturday and this period looks like the 
best timing for thunderstorms across the area. Based on good model 
consistency and continuity increased probability of precipitation to categorical on Saturday 
with the front moving through. 


Temperature guidance appears generally similar so leaned with a 
blend. The warmer and more humid weather will be replaced by below 
normal temperatures and drier dew points by this weekend. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... 


Issued at 135 PM EDT Wednesday may 27 2015 


The initialization from the regional blend will be used. 


Confidence in this forecast is high into Monday with good agreement 
between the various models. 


Starting Monday night confidence becomes low. Crucial 
differences arise in the handling of a surface trough...which the 
GFS places right over the area but the European model has farther 
south. Just where the trough ends up will have a major impact on 
where convection fires. Until we can be confident about that...we 
cant be confident about the most important part of the forecast. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 28/0600z tafs/... 


Issued at 1235 am EDT Thursday may 28 2015 


Conditions are going to be VFR through the remainder of tonight and 
through much of Thursday. High pressure will be over the region 
Thursday afternoon and then move east before southerly winds brings 
the old frontal boundary northward as a warm front. Thus...looking 
for clouds/precipitation to return Friday. 




&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...smf 
near term...smf 
short term...smf 
long term....jk 
aviation...dwm 


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