Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
650 am EDT Sat Nov 1 2014 


Update... 
the aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 222 am EDT Sat Nov 1 2014 


A strong upper level disturbance will exit central Indiana early 
this morning...allowing precipitation to exit the area. 


Strong high pressure over the upper Midwest and the Central Plains 
will then build east across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes 
through the weekend and into the early part of the next work week. 
This will result in dry but cool weather through Monday. As the 
surface high moves east of Indiana...warmer air will return on 
southerly winds. 


The next best chance for rain will be late Monday night into 
the middle of the work week as another cold front pushes into 
Indiana from the Central Plains. 


&& 


Near term /today/... 


Issued at 222 am EDT Sat Nov 1 2014 


Surface analysis early this morning shows strong...cold Canadian 
high pressure in place over the upper Midwest. A strong pressure 
gradient was in place ahead of the high across central 
Indiana...resulting in cold...gusty north winds. Radar was showing 
most of the precipitation associated with the departing system has 
moved east of Indiana. Aloft water vapor imagery shows the upper 
low has quickly moved to eastern Tennessee. Temperatures across 
central Indiana had fallen into the lower 30s. 


GFS and NAM both agree that cold and dry air will continue to 
build across central Indiana today as strong ridging across the 
plains states moves east. Forecast soundings and time height 
sections remain dry with subsidence. Convective temperatures look 
unattainable and 850mb shows cold air advection continuing through 
at least 18z...before the dome of cold air begins to shift east. 
Thus will trend toward a becoming mostly sunny forecast today as a 
few clouds may still be lingering in the morning as the system to 
the east quickly moves out. As for temperatures...will trend highs cooler 
than mavmos given the cold 850mb temperatures in place. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Monday night/... 


Issued at 222 am EDT Sat Nov 1 2014 


Models are in pretty good agreement during this period. The main 
challenge will be temperatures. Dry weather will be expected through at 
least Monday evening as the very large area of high pressure over 
the Central Plains slowly pushes through the Great Lakes and Ohio 
Valley through Monday evening. Forecast soundings and time height 
sections continue to remain dry under the influence of this system 
and only a few ridging riding passing cirrus will be expected from time 
to time. 


The dome of cold air will continue to push east 
overnight...although cold air advection from the north will be 
occurring through the night aloft. At the surface clear skies and 
calm winds will be expected allowing ideal raditaional cooling 
conditions. Will stick close the the mavmos/metmos temperatures which 
appear to handle the situation well. As it is November...a freeze 
warning will not be issued as the growing season has ended. 


Stronger warm air advection is expected on Sunday as the 850mb 
ridge axis is expected to build across Indiana and southerly flow 
returns to the surface...still given the cold air in place in the 
lower levels...temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s. Thus will 
use a blend of mavmos and metmos. 


By Sunday night the surface high will have drifted to the 
southeastern states and warm air advection will be continuing. 
Some mixing is expected through the night as a surge of warm air 
is seen arriving in the middle levels in the forecast soundings. 
Will trend lows on Sunday night slight warmer than mavmos. The 
same trend continues on Monday as strong warm air advection 
continues on southwesterly winds. 850mb temperatures on Monday rise toward 
10c...again with good mixing and plenty of sun. Will again trend 
highs on Monday at or above mavmos. 


GFS and NAM then differ a bit on the timing of the arrival of the 
next cold front pushing out of the Central Plains. GFS show 
arrival after 06z Tuesday while the NAM is slower. Nonetheless 
will include a low chance pop for the forecast area...particularly 
across the west due to proximity...mainly after midnight. With the 
expected advance of clouds and precipitation...along with the continued 
warm air advection will trend lows warmer than mexmos. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through next Friday/... 
issued at 222 am EDT Sat Nov 1 2014 


Ensembles suggest a slowly progressive long wave upper trough will 
pass through the Ohio Valley region during the middle parts of next 
week. This trough looks to move off to the east by next 
Thursday...however it appears upper troughing will linger over the 
eastern parts of the country through the end of next week. 


Will continue to carry probability of precipitation from Tuesday through Wednesday night as 
the long wave trough slowly passes by. A few ensembles suggest some 
light showers possible next Thursday associated with the departing 
system...but Don/T see enough of a threat to introduce probability of precipitation for next 
Thursday yet. Will continue with a dry forecast for next Thursday 
and Friday. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 011200z tafs/... 
issued at 650 am EDT Sat Nov 1 2014 


Areas of VFR ceilings...040-050...expected mainly over the eastern 
taf sites...kind/kbmg...through the midday hours today. Short term 
models suggest dry advection today...so think these ceilings will 
scatter out with time. 


Pressure gradient remains rather tight today...so expecting surface 
gusts to around 20 kts from 340-010 degrees for most of the day. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
freeze warning until 10 am EDT this morning for inz021-028>031- 
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...puma 
near term...puma 
short term...puma 
long term....jas 
aviation...jas 


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