Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
430 am EDT Thursday may 7 2015 


Update... 


The aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 350 am EDT Thursday may 7 2015 


An upper level ridge over the area will shift off to the east and 
weaken as a frontal system works its way into the area Friday and 
into the weekend...bringing numerous opportunities for showers and 
thunderstorms to the region. 


&& 


Near term /today/... 
issued at 350 am EDT Thursday may 7 2015 


Expect quiet weather across the area today. Some guidance hints at 
isolated convective development across the eastern forecast area but 
in the absence of upper level support will continue with dry 
forecast. 


Consensus numbers again appear too cool on highs today and will 
raise a couple of degrees. This has worked well in recent days. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Saturday night/... 
issued at 350 am EDT Thursday may 7 2015 


Frontal system will begin to push into the area early Friday...and 
will continue with introducing probability of precipitation at that time...and ramping 
them up Friday afternoon and into the weekend. Severe storms 
appear unlikely at this time but scattered storms in the area 
throughout the weekend look likely. While there will potentially 
be dry periods...storms will be a threat most of the time. 


Consensus temperatures again appear a bit too cool per latest trends and 
have compensated for this. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
issued at 300 am EDT Thursday may 7 2015 


Unsettled weather is expected to be in progress this weekend and 
into early next week before cooler and drier conditions take over in 
the wake of a cold front. 


00z deterministic models start off in good agreement as they lift an 
upper low northeast from northeastern Colorado at 12z Sunday to the 
Dakotas to north central Nebraska by 12z Monday. The upper low at 
this time opens up and becomes absorbed in a central Canadian 
trough. Things change after that as the 00z GFS has a stronger upper 
low pivot southeast around the base of the resultant trough. This 
low then sweeps east across the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night. 
However...models fair close with an associated surface system and 
its cold front as they both bring the front through late Monday and 
Monday night. Southerly low level flow ahead of this front will 
bring plenty of moisture and instability to the area and combine 
with waves in the southwest upper flow over central Indiana as well 
as they approaching cold front and result in widespread showers and 
thunderstorms Sunday through Monday. After that...a few showers 
should linger around in the wake of the cold front on Monday night 
before dry weather returns. 


Regional blend looks reasonable considering cloud cover and thermal 
profiles with afternoon highs in the 70s and lower 80s through 
Monday but only 60s by Tuesday. Overnight should fall from the 60s 
on Sunday night to the 40s by Tuesday night. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 070900z ind taf update/... 
issued at 430 am EDT Thursday may 7 2015 


No changes needed to the taf. 


Previous discussion follows... 
issued at 1205 am EDT Thursday may 7 2015 


VFR conditions and light winds are expected this taf period. 


High pressure east of Indiana will continue to allow a dry air mass 
to remain in place across central Indiana for today. Therefore...VFR 
conditions will prevail for duration of the taf period. Winds will 
be southerly and light to calm early this morning and then pick up 
to around 6-8 knots by late this morning...remaining less than 10 knots. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...nield 
near term...nield 
short term...nield 
long term...mk 
aviation...smf/mk 


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