Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
630 am EDT Sat Oct 25 2014 


Update... 
the aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 350 am EDT Sat Oct 25 2014 


A weak frontal boundary will move through the area early 
today...but will have little impact beyond some morning cloudiness 
and a sprinkle or two. Surface and upper level ridging will build 
into the area for the remainder of the weekend and into 
Monday...bringing warm and dry weather to the area. A 
strengthening area of low pressure will move through the Great 
Lakes next week...dragging a cold front through the area Monday 
night into Tuesday...with the potential for showers and perhaps 
thunderstorms...and cooler conditions which will persist through 
the remainder of the forecast period. 


&& 


Near term /today/... 
issued at 350 am EDT Sat Oct 25 2014 


Very light echoes noted on regional radar mosaic this morning 
ahead of weak surface trough/frontal boundary. These are likely 
to clear the forecast area by 12z...and thus will carry no mention 
of them in the forecast package. Will maintain the sprinkles 
mention already in the grids through the remainder of the 
overnight...as measurable precipitation from such weak echoes is 
very unlikely but a few drops should fall here and there. 


Cloud cover from this disturbance may persist through much of the 
morning...but clearing should occur quickly this afternoon Post 
frontal passage. 850 temperatures and thicknesses suggest consensus blend 
is reasonable on maximum temperatures...which results in a forecast of 70 to 
75 across the area. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Monday night/... 
issued at 350 am EDT Sat Oct 25 2014 


High pressure will be in control throughout much of the short 
term...thus a dry forecast will suffice at least through Monday. 
Frontal boundary approaches the area and will have to carry at 
least some low probability of precipitation across the northwestern half of the area 
Monday night. 


On temperatures...low level thermal forecasts suggest MOS blend or just 
slightly above is better on maximum temperatures while an overall model 
consensus is better on mins. May see the 80 degree mark across 
southern portions of the area on Monday. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 
issued at 350 am EDT Sat Oct 25 2014 


A cold front is still prognosticated to move across the region at the 
beginning of the period...with the highest probability of precipitation during the day 
Tuesday. Feel confident enough in this event thanks to good model 
consensus and consistency to continue likely probability of precipitation. Could be a few 
thunderstorms rolling through with the frontal passage. We are not 
outlooked for severe weather at this time with very weak instability 
only isolated thunder was included at this time. Temperatures start 
out above average for the period then after cold frontal passage are 
slightly below normal through middle week. Superblend initialization 
generally worked well. Another surface frontal system will bring low 
chances for precipitation on Thursday. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 251200z taf issuance/... 


Issued at 630 am EDT Sat Oct 25 2014 


Aside from some brief mfvr ceilings early this morning...VFR 
conditions expected for the period. Conditions should improve to 
VFR at all sites after 15z in the wake of a weak cold front that 
should reach drop southeast across the taf sites from 12z-18z. 
Winds will become west to up to 11 knots this afternoon. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...nield 
near term...nield 
short term...nield 
long term...smf 
aviation...smf 


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