Zczc indwrkafd 290319 
ttaa00 kind ddhhmm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
1255 am EDT Sat Aug 29 2015 


Update... 
the aviation section has been updated below 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 313 PM EDT Friday Aug 28 2015 


High pressure is expected across the area through tonight. A 
weak frontal system will settle into the Ohio Valley this weekend. 
High pressure will build back into the area for the early next week. 
A few disturbances may move through central Indiana through the 
middle to end of the next work week. 


&& 


Near term /rest of tonight/... 


Issued at 948 PM EDT Friday Aug 28 2015 


Upped clouds a bit in the west tonight based on latest trends seen 
on satellite. Hrrr tries to bring in a few showers late tonight but 
do not believe there will be enough forcing to generate much rain. 
Cannot rule out a few sprinkles as dying showers move in late...but 
not enough expected to add these to the forecast. 


Temperature forecast looks good. 


Previous discussion follows... 


Will keep the forecast dry for tonight as surface high pressure 
holds on. Short term models and latest trends to the west indicate 
there will be a gradual increase of middle and high level cloud cover. 
A MOS blend for lows looks reasonable given the expected cloud cover 
for low temperatures 60-65. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday through Monday/... 


Issued at 313 PM EDT Friday Aug 28 2015 


Models remain inconsistent with regard to moisture amounts and track 
of a weak frontal system...which is associated with an upper trough 
and expected to move through this weekend. Instability is not great 
but at least warrants mention of scattered thunderstorms during this 
weekend. Best chances appear to be Saturday evening when the frontal 
system is projected to cross the area. Weak chances will exist 
Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday into Sunday night. Since the 
models have yet to come to a consensus solution and remain 
inconsistent...kept chances below the "likely" category...for now. 


Precipitation chances will quickly begin to dwindle by early Monday 
morning as a ridge of high pressure quickly reestablishes its 
hold over the region. Dry conditions are generally expected to 
kick off the work week. And temperatures will have slowly 
acclimated back to seasonal normal by Monday. Welcome back 
Summer... 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 


Issued at 252 PM EDT Friday Aug 28 2015 


Broad upper ridging will be across the area during the long term. 
However the influence of moisture from Erika now looks like it could 
come into play in the Midwest/Ohio Valley during the week. With 
models trending toward bringing some energy around the upper ridge 
and bring moisture north thought it prudent to follow that trend and 
include some slight chances for thunderstorms during the day from 
Wednesday through Friday. The initialization followed this trend as 
well and just needed some quality control tweaks. Temperature-wise 
looking at highs just above normal in the middle to upper 80s from the 
initialization and these look good. Highs in the 90s not out of the 
question but should only be attainable if the tropical moisture 
doesn/T make it this way. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for 290600z taf issuance/... 


Issued at 1235 am EDT Sat Aug 29 2015 


Outside of any convection late in the period...VFR expected through 
the period. 


Middle cloud will continue to increase overnight. This should keep fog 
at Bay...but if breaks last long enough...could see some MVFR fog at 
the outlier sites. 


Scattered light showers are possible Saturday morning...but better 
chances for scattered convection arrive late afternoon into the 
evening. For now have added a prob30 group for storms then. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...smf 
near term...smf/50 
short term...smf 
long term....cp 
aviation...50/jh 



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