Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
436 am EDT Wed Jun 29 2016 


Update... 


The aviation sections has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 400 am EDT Wed Jun 29 2016 


Spectacular weather is expected through Thursday evening with high 
pressure firmly in control. A frontal boundary will move into the 
area late Thursday night into Friday and stall south of the 
region for the weekend into early next week. This boundary will 
necessitate low thunderstorm chances, particularly over southern 
portions of the area nearest the boundary. 


&& 


Near term /today/... 
issued at 400 am EDT Wed Jun 29 2016 


A chamber of Commerce weather day can be expected across the area 
today. Ample sunshine, low humidity, and mild temperatures are all 
expected with highs topping out in the upper 70s across most of 
the area. 


Guidance handled all of this quite well and a blend was generally 
accepted. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Friday night/... 
issued at 400 am EDT Wed Jun 29 2016 


Another spectacular day can be expected Thursday before models 
show a frontal boundary moving into the area late Thursday night 
and gradually pushing south of the area Friday into Friday night. 
Low thunderstorm chances will be required near the boundary during 
these periods. 


Consensus numbers appeared quite reasonable throughout the period 
and only minor tweaks were made. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
issued at 208 am EDT Wed Jun 29 2016 


The main focus for the long term will be on timing and location of 
highest pops. The operational 00z GFS and 12z Tuesday European model (ecmwf) both 
have a decent upper wave moving over the area late in the Holiday 
weekend through the 4th. The upper feature is expected to draw a 
stalled Ohio and Tennessee Valley front, and its associated increase 
in moisture, back to the north as a surface wave spins up along it. 
The European model (ecmwf) was a little quicker with the upper trough and stronger 
with the surface reflection. Either way, left chance pops southwest 
Friday and Friday night, closer to the returning front. Then, 
regional blend brings in increasing pops from southwest to northeast 
Sunday through Monday, which is very representative of a model and 
ensemble blend. Both the operational models are pumping out over an 
inch of rain over the southern two thirds of the area. So, will need 
to be watching for potential heavy rain Sunday night and 
Independence day. Highest pops will be late Sunday through the 4th 
with decreasing pops Monday night and Tuesday, as the system moves 
to the east. 


Regional blend temperature trends look good with a return to 
seasonable temperatures in the mid and upper 80s by early next week. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for 30/0900z ind taf update/... 
issued at 436 am EDT Wed Jun 29 2016 


No changes needed to the taf. 


Previous discussion follows... 
issued at 1150 PM EDT Thu Jun 28 2016 


High pressure extends from the upper Great Lakes southeast into the 
area. Thus, clear skies and VFR condition are the rule. 
Temperatures are cooling to within 3 degrees of the dew points in 
kbmg, but given the drying conditions on Tuesday, would expect some 
shallow ground fog possible before sunrise. Otherwise, a great day 
ahead with scattered cloud in the afternoon and light winds expected. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...nield 
near term...nield 
short term...nield 
long term...mk 
aviation...dwm/mk 



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