Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
428 am EDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015 


Update... 
aviation section has been updated below 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 300 am EDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015 


A cold front will cross Indiana today. High pressure following 
it is going to dominate Hoosier weather through Friday. After 
another cold front passes Friday night...high pressure should 
control the weather again into Monday. A third cold front is 
forecast to slowly cross our state from late Monday into Tuesday. 


&& 


Near term /today/... 


Issued at 300 am EDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015 


The main issue is probability of precipitation. 


The first wave of the system the satellite shows to our northwest 
turned sharply south and missed our County Warning Area last night. However cold 
tops are developing to the east. This time a south turn would 
affect US. The tops are cold enough so even if weakening occurs 
something should be going when the system arrives. 


Likely to categorical probability of precipitation are called for. Considering the high 
precipitable water...heavy rain is Worth mentioning. 


The models all agree precipitation should end by evening as a 
weak front crossing the area is followed by much drier air. 


Yesterday the guidance was too cool by several degrees. Clouds and 
rain should cause temperatures to be a little cooler than 
yesterday. That might kill the bias and let the mav work well. 
The mav will be used for now. Significant modification may be 
needed as events unfold. 


&& 


Short term.../tonight through Friday night/ 
issued at 300 am EDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015 


Temperatures are the main issue. The models agree the air will be 
so dry skies should be mostly clear through Friday. 


At times the GFS has considerably higher 850 millibar temperatures 
than the other models. However no matter which deterministic 
forecast you prefer...the MOS is almost identical. This boosts 
confidence it can be used with little alteration. 


Friday night the GFS and the European bring a weak front through. 
The NAM does not. With the other two models agreeing the NAM will 
be disregarded and the GFS guidance used. 




&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
issued at 335 am EDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015 


A broad upper ridge will be across The Rockies while an upper low 
remains over the Hudson Bay with an upper trough extending south to 
the Great Lakes. Models keep US under a northwest flow aloft. 
Models indicate dry weather will continue Saturday and Saturday 
night. The 00z Euro and GFS now indicate chance probability of precipitation Sunday over the 
northern two thirds of our region as an upper disturbance moves our 
way. There is quite a bit of difference between models in regards 
for Monday and Tuesday with the GFS being dry...while the Euro is 
quite west especially Tuesday. Will go with a blend and mention 
low chances north and central Monday and all areas Tuesday as a weak 
frontal system moves our way towards the end of the long term. 


Temperatures will be near seasonal norms. In most cases went close 
to a MOS blend on temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 29/09z kind taf update/... 
issued at 428 am EDT Wednesday Jul 298 2015 


Minor tweaks made to kind taf to better match current conditions. 
No other changes are needed at this time. 


Pevious aviation discussion follows... 
with lower 70s dew points...would not rule out MVFR fog overnight at 
the smaller airports. However...increasing middle deck and convective 
debris ahead of a cold front...should keep the visibility from 
dropping to IFR or worse save perhaps a brief time. 


Rapid refresh reflectivity forecasts and radar trends suggest the owa 
convection could make it in our western taf sites after 10z and 
eastern ones after 12z. The cold front should move through the area 
after 23z Wednesday at laf and huf and 01z Thursday at ind and bmg. 
This should put an end to any other convection. Will go with a 2 
hour morning MVFR thunderstorm group and thunderstorms in the vicinity to handle the 
potential for afternoon re-development. 


Winds will be light and variable to calm overnight...southwest and 
west to less than 10 knots after daybreak and northwest less than 10 
knots this evening...behind the front. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...jk 
near term...jk 
short term...jk 
long term...jh 
aviation...mk/jh 






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