Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
429 PM EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


Update...the aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 256 PM EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


A couple of weak systems will bring clouds and perhaps some 
sprinkles or light rain tonight and again Friday night. A stronger 
system will bring better chances for rain around Tuesday of next 
week. Temperatures will generally be near to above average through 
Tuesday...then cooler air will return. 


&& 


Near term.../rest of this afternoon and tonight/ 
issued at 256 PM EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


Clouds will continue to increase into this evening as a weak upper 
system moves in. These clouds will likely interfere with the partial 
solar eclipse near sunset...depending on how thick they end up 
being. 


There will be some isentropic lift tonight...but moisture is quite 
limited with this system. 


Due to the lack of moisture only went slight chance probability of precipitation tonight and 
confined them to the northern half of the area...closer to the 
better moisture/forcing. Would not be surprised to see some 
sprinkles farther south. 


Stuck with a model blend for low temperatures with the increasing 
cloud cover. 


&& 


Short term.../Friday through Sunday/ 
issued at 256 PM EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


Focus is on any chance for rain during the period. Models are close 
enough that a blend was used. 


Some clouds will still linger Friday morning with the upper system 
exiting to the east. Clouds will then decrease Friday afternoon as 
the system pulls away. Mav looks too warm for highs given lingering 
cloud cover. Went closer to a raw model blend. 


Another round of isentropic lift arrives with the next system Friday 
night into early Saturday. Once again the problem will be moisture 
with main sources of moisture cut off by high pressure. Continued 
with sprinkles mention Friday night...but left Saturday dry for now. 


Otherwise should be warm with cold advection not really kicking in 
until later in the day. 


High pressure will build in Saturday night into Sunday providing dry 
and slightly cooler conditions. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 


Issued at 140 PM EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


This is a moderate to high confidence forecast. The regional 
initialization will not be changed. 


The models stay close in how they handle precipitation through 
Tuesday night. Starting Wednesday the deterministic fields of the 
models begin to diverge...but there is agreement about dry 
weather even if for different reasons. 


Model similarity gives confidence in their comparable temperatures 
through Tuesday night. After that temperature predictions become 
less certain as the models move apart. 
&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 232100z ind taf update/... 


Issued at 420 PM EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


No changes needed to the taf. 


Previous discussion follows... 


VFR conditions are expected this taf period. 


High pressure over eastern Indiana and Ohio will depart this 
afternoon allowing a weak trough of low pressure over the 
Mississippi River valley to push east. Abundant high cloud 
associated with this feature as seen on satellite is expected to 
invade...although any ceilings should remain VFR. 


Time heights and forecast soundings concur...showing middle level 
moisture available. Dry air in the wake of the trough will arrive 
on Friday morning. Forecast soundings reveal convect temperatures may be 
reachable briefly during the first few hours of mixing which could 
result in some brief cumulus...still VFR will be the rule. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...50 
near term...50 
short term...50 
long term....jk 
aviation...jp/mk 


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