Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
1019 am EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 

aviation section updated 


issued at 348 am EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 

Low pressure over northern Indiana and a trailing cold front across 
west central Indiana will move east across our region by midday 
High pressure over the upper Midwest will move east across Indiana 

A mild southerly flow will develop on the back side of this high 
pressure system Friday as it moves on to the east. Unseasonably 
mild conditions will occur Saturday and again early next week as a 
strong upper ridge builds over the southern U.S. A weak frontal 
system will move our way and stall over northern sections Sunday and 
then move back to the north. Another weak frontal system will move 
our way around the middle of next week. 


Near term /rest of today and tonight/... 

Issued at 945 am EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 

rain has ended across central Indiana as a low pressure system and 
associated cold front push farther east. Current forecast is on 
track, so no changes. Current temps across the area are generally 
in the upper 40s/low 50s and are expected to top off in the mid 
50s to low 60s. Updated grids have been sent. 

Previous discussion... 
low pressure was over northern Indiana and a weak cold front 
extended southwest across west central Indiana and southern 
Illinois. The cold front will move rapidly east across central 
Indiana this morning as the low pressure system moves towards the 
eastern Great Lakes. 

Radar indicated widely scattered light showers were occurring over 
central Indiana and a few areas in eastern Illinois were reporting 
patchy drizzle. Could a few light showers or patchy drizzle over 
the eastern half of our region early this morning. Satellite and 
weather depiction indicated lots of low clouds upstream to our 
west and cloudy skies should persist well into the afternoon 
before breaking up late today. 

Will go with partly cloudy conditions late today and early tonight 
with some areas becoming mostly clear later tonight. Temperatures 
will fall into the lower 50s or lower after the cold front moves 
through and remain in the 50s most areas later today. Went with 
highs from the lower 50s northwest to around 60 far southeast. 

With light winds and clearing tonight went a little cooler with lows 


Short term /Friday through Saturday night/... 
issued at 348 am EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 

The high pressure system which will move across Indiana tonight will 
move on to the east Friday and a milder southerly flow on the back 
side of this high will allow temperatures to become warmer Friday. 
With lots of sun and warm advection went a little warmer than MOS 
temperatures. Highs Friday will be from the middle 60s northeast 
to the lower 70s southwest. 

The rest of the short term period will be unseasonably mild with a 
moderate southerly flow. Models indicate a strong upper ridge will 
build over the deep south. Lows will be in the middle 50s Friday 
night and middle to upper 50s Saturday night. Highs Saturday will 
be in the middle to upper 70s. 

Believe super blend winds are too light Saturday and went closer to 
cancer values. Could see winds gusts 20 knots or higher Saturday. 

A weak cold front will stall across the northern parts of our region 
by Sunday. This front could bring a few showers to northern areas 
late Saturday night. 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
issued at 348 am EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 

Ensembles are in fairly good agreement during this period. A short 
wave trough is expected to be passing east through the Great Lakes 
on Sunday. Will keep a lingering chance pop over mainly the 
northeastern zones during the day Sunday to cover the exiting system. 

Otherwise, the ensembles indicate upper ridging will build over the 
southeast parts of the country, as a trough lifts northeast through 
the plains into the western Great Lakes during the early to middle 
parts of next week. As a result, will bring in chance pops for 
Tuesday night into next Wednesday. 

Temperatures expected to be well above normal given the upper 


Aviation /discussion for the 271500z ind taf update/... 

Satellite shows abundant stratocu across Illinois...Indiana and 
Wisconsin...upstream of the current taf sites. Forecast soundings 
and time height sections show trapped lower level moisture 
lingering across the area through the afternoon. Thus the ongoing 
MVFR ceilings are expected to continue for the next 6-9 hours. 

Ongoing tafs handle this okay. 

Previous discussion below 

/discussion for the 271200z tafs/... 
issued at 631 am EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 

Some areas of ceilings 006-009 above ground level still being observed across the 
area. These ceilings may linger until 271300z-271400z, but overall 
the lower ceilings should continue to lift with time as drier air 
works in at the lower levels. 

Otherwise, MVFR ceilings extend well upstream in the Post frontal 
zone, so think these ceilings will hang around most of the day, 
aided by a developing subsidence inversion based around 025-030. 

Surface winds 280-310 degrees at 9-13 kts this morning, gradually 
veering to 310-340 degrees at 5-8 kts by late afternoon. Occasional 
surface gusts 18-20 kts early this morning expected to end over 
the next few hours as pressure gradient relaxes in the wake of 
frontal passage. 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 


near term...tdud/jh 
short term...jh 
long term...jas 

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