Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
953 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014 


Update... 


Near term for the rest of today has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 328 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014 


A weakening frontal boundary will pass through central Indiana this 
morning with just a brief increase in clouds. High pressure will 
then reestablish with dry pleasant weather over the weekend. Another 
weak front will move through the Ohio Valley on Monday and Monday 
night with showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain mild 
for much of the upcoming week. 


&& 


Near term /rest of today/... 
issued at 953 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014 


Update...current forecast is on track. No updates are needed at 
this time. Previous near term discussion follows... 


Middle clouds associated with a steadily weakening frontal boundary 
continue to spread into the forecast area early this morning. Thin 
broken axis of very light showers exists with the boundary over 
northern and central Illinois. Temperatures were mainly in the 40s at 07z. 


Front has looked less and less impressive and now is likely to 
completely wash out today as it runs into drier air and the high 
pressure ridge east of the region. Area of light showers northwest 
of the forecast area will track into lower Michigan this morning 
with the remnant surface low...otherwise expect the middle clouds will 
be the main highlight of the boundary for much of the forecast area. 
Cannot completely rule out a sprinkle in the northern Wabash valley 
over the next 4-6 hours but potential is so remote that it really is 
not Worth any mention in the forecast. Have removed all mention of 
probability of precipitation for today as a result. 


Axis of middle level clouds should be through much of the forecast 
area by early afternoon...with high pressure reestablishing as it 
drops into the Great Lakes this evening. Model soundings keep 
convective temperatures in the 60s this afternoon which will likely 
translate to scattered cumulus development for the afternoon. Skies will 
clear into the evening as the high builds south. 


Consall guidance lined up with low level thermals well...with highs 
rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s over much of central 
Indiana. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Sunday night/... 
issued at 328 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014 


Forecast challenges are few through the short term...with a mild dry 
Easter weekend setting up under high pressure. 


High pressure centered over the Great Lakes tonight will maintain 
firm control over Ohio Valley weather as it tracks into New England 
and the middle Atlantic by Sunday night. A predominant east/NE flow 
through early Sunday will advect dry air into the region...with 
abundant sunshine and seasonable temperatures Saturday and cool clear 
nights tonight and Saturday night. Mostly sunny skies will continue 
into Sunday...with a few more clouds during the afternoon as surface 
flow veers to southerly on the back side of the high. Clouds will 
increase further Sunday night as a surface low with an associated 
frontal boundary moves into Iowa and Missouri. 


Temperatures...boundary layer temperatures will dip briefly on Saturday as the 
center of the surface high passes to our northeast. Despite the 
cooler 850mb temperatures...plenty of sunshine and dry easterly flow will 
compensate with temperatures warming into the 60s. Warm advection arrives 
Sunday with the southerly winds...setting the stage for temperatures to 
rise into the 70s. Leaned towards warmer metmos for highs. Undercut 
MOS guidance for lows tonight/Saturday night as near ideal 
radiational cooling setting up with clear skies and light winds. 
Typical cool spots throughout the forecast area may manage to sneak 
into the upper 30s both nights. Easterly wind component off the city 
center will keep lows at kind higher. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Friday/... 
issued at 250 am EDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014 


Next week looks to be a typical Spring week for central 
Indiana...with two systems impacting the area early in the week and 
then toward the end of the week as well. In between...near to 
slightly above normal temperatures and ample sunshine can be 
expected as ridging at the surface and aloft make their way across 
the region. Allblend handled the details very well and aside from a 
few tweaks...no significant changes were required. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 18/12z tafs/... 
issued at 657 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014 


VFR through the period. 


Weak cold front is on its way through the sites this morning. Only 
impact from this has been an uptick in middle and high cloud...and this 
is not expected to change. Should hit convective temperatures today 
so have included scattered VFR cumulus...which will dissipate in 
typical fashion this evening. 


Winds will be light and variable early...becoming northwesterly and 
then northerly later today into tonight. Expect winds to stay below 
10kt through the period. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...Ryan 
near term...Ryan/jh 
short term...Ryan 
long term...nield 
aviation...nield 


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