Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
650 am EDT Monday Oct 20 2014 


Update... 
the aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 327 am EDT Monday Oct 20 2014 


A cold front and sharp upper trough will bring shower chances to 
central Indiana today. Otherwise...high pressure will provide for 
dry weather through next weekend. After seasonable temperatures with 
highs in the 60s today...temperatures will be below normal with 
afternoon highs in the 50s through late week before temperatures 
rebound this weekend with a return to the 60s. 


&& 


Near term /today/... 
issued at 608 am EDT Monday Oct 20 2014 


Pulled pre-first period probability of precipitation across our northwest counties...roughly 
north of a terre haut to Noblesville line per radar trends. 


Previous discussion follows... 


Focus today will be on shower coverage and timing. Models in good 
agreement that a cold front will drop southeast across central 
Indiana this afternoon and early evening as a sharp upper trough 
digs southeast across the Great Lakes. 


300k isentropic analysis...850-500 millibar q-vector 
divergence...very dry air moving in aloft and finally radar trends 
suggest best probability of precipitation today will be early in the day and across our 
southeastern counties. Even there...with limited moisture...will 
only go with slight chance probability of precipitation. Far northwestern counties should be 
dry after the current shower activity there exits prior to 12z. With 
1000-850 millibar layer remaining moist...cold air moving in aloft 
and cyclonic upper flow in the wake of the upper trough...should see 
plenty of afternoon cumulus and a few showers lingering through late day 
east. 


With warmer MOS numbers from the 00z run...prefer temperatures a 
couple of degrees higher than consall with highs in the lower 60s 
northeast to the upper 60s southwest looking reasonable. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/... 
issued at 327 am EDT Monday Oct 20 2014 


Short term focus will be on any lingering showers...cloud cover and 
temperatures as models in good agreement that sharp upper trough 
digging across the Great Lakes today will form a closed low over the 
Appalachians by Tuesday afternoon with cyclonic flow on the back 
side of it along with fetch off Lake Michigan. As a result...would 
not rule out a few showers or sprinkles Monday night and Tuesday 
mainly north and east. However...prefer to just keep more cloud 
cover there for now as boundary layer flow off the lake is not 
overly impressive and dry forecast matches up better with our 
neighbors. 


By midweek...cool Canadian high pressure will gradually build in 
from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley which will provide cool 
and dry weather. Clouds will be decreasing from west to east. 
Afternoon highs per blend only expected to reach the 50s Tuesday and 
Wednesday except perhaps lower 60s southwest on Tuesday. 
Meanwhile...frost looks like a possibility Tuesday night and even 
more so Wednesday night with clear skies and light winds. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/... 


Issued at 306 am EDT Monday Oct 20 2014 


Dry weather is expected through the long term under high pressure. 
The only possible kink in this is on Friday when a weak upper wave 
moves across Wisconsin to Ohio...but at this point looks like all it 
will do is increase cloud cover a bit. Temperatures Thursday should 
be below normal with highs in the middle to upper 50s but then return 
to normal on Friday with highs in the low 60s. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for 201200z taf issuance/... 


Issued at 644 am EDT Monday Oct 20 2014 


Mainly VFR conditions expected during the period. Some light 
scattered rain showers are occurring across or near several of the 
sites...however does not appear that these will impact flight 
category and thus will just include vcsh with them. Expect lower 
/but still VFR/ ceilings to form later this morning under 
cycolonic flow and shower/sprinkle chances will continue through the day. 
Tonight time heights and forecast soundings indicate some 
potential for MVFR ceilings/visibilities starting after around 6z 
tonight. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...mk 
near term...mk 
short term...mk 
long term....cp 
aviation...cp 


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