Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
1019 PM EDT Thursday Mar 26 2015 


Update... 
the aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 308 PM EDT Thursday Mar 26 2015 


Very cool weather pattern to start the weekend as a deep upper 
trough moves. Ridging in its wake portends a return to near 
normal temperatures next week. Couple of weak weather systems 
tracking across southern Canada Sunday through Thursday help to 
bring milder air but also low threat for light rain with each. 


&& 


Near term /rest of tonight/... 


Issued at 955 PM EDT Thursday Mar 26 2015 


Clouds have broken up across much of central Indiana at the 
moment...with the exception of far northern sections. Additional 
cloud cover looks to be developing across northern Illinois...with 
additional clouds upstream across Wisconsin. 


An approaching upper trough will help guide these clouds back into 
central Indiana overnight...so bumped up sky cover later tonight. 
The clouds should help temperatures from bottoming out...and 
forecast already had this well represented. Thus made no changes to 
temperatures. 


Previous discussion follows... 
question of how much if any of break in cloud cover develops for 
tonight and its impact on cooling. For the moment the upper trough 
approaching from the west has been thickening and returning higher 
cloud deck while cold advection acting in the sunnier areas north 
and west of here have developed stratocumulus decks. Model 
soundings indicate enough residual low level moisture under 
influence of approaching trough and cold advection should result 
in a mostly cloudy sky. Will bump min temperatures up a degree or two 
based on this but still expecting mins from 25 to 30. 




&& 


Short term /Friday through Sunday/... 


Issued at 308 PM EDT Thursday Mar 26 2015 


Forecast challenge is whether any flurries may occur Friday and 
timing of Sunday system. 


Upper trough swings across state during day Friday. Upper levels 
very dry but low levels remain somewhat moist. Feel low level 
anticyclonic flow in cloud bearing levels should offset upper trough 
lift and keep flurries from occurring. 


With cold advection and abundant stratocumulus cloud means 
temperatures Friday will climb no higher than 35 to 40 or similar 
to current forecast. Have increased cloud cover Friday relative to 
current forecast to reflect this. 


Clearing sets in Friday night as surface high builds down and 
upper trough shifts a bit further east. With dewpoints falling to 
lower teens...near record lows will occur Saturday. 


Sunday...have added afternoon rain chances though a lot of virga may 
precede any rain as moisture in column takes some time to recover. 
Might be under doing warm-up of temperatures on Sunday as pretty decent 
warm advection sets up ahead of next surface trough. Main negating 
feature with warm-up will be arrival of clouds with the trough. 
Models still disagree with timing of these clouds and rain but 
have been faster than recent runs. Will keep with middle 40s 
northeast and lower 50s southwest. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday night/... 


Issued at 308 PM EDT Thursday Mar 26 2015 


The long term period will start out with widespread rain showers on 
Sunday night as a cold front passes through the area. Brief 
ridging/dry conditions will prevail on Monday...but latest regional 
initialization is bringing slight chance probability of precipitation in across the northern 
half of central Indiana for Monday night. This rain is in 
association with an upper wave moving through the Great Lakes 
region. Confidence at this time is low with this feature...so will 
not divert from initialization. Late in the extended period...a 
surface low will move across the Great Lakes region. Rain ahead of 
the associated warm front will start overspreading central Indiana 
from the southwest on Wednesday...and the trailing cold front will 
increase rain chances further on Wednesday night. 
&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 270300z kind taf update/... 
issued at 1019 PM EDT Thursday Mar 26 2015 


No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous 
discussion follows. 


Remaining ceilings 030-035 look diurnal in nature...so expecting 
these ceilings to dissipate by or shortly after issuance time. 


As lower level winds veer later tonight...expecting ceilings 035-040 
currently over the Great Lakes...to spread back over the taf sites 
from north to south after about 270700z. There will be some layered 
cloud above 050 as well. 


No visibility restrictions expected tonight. 


Surface winds generally 320-350 degrees at 5-8 kts tonight. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...tucek 
near term...tucek/50 
short term...tucek 
long term....tdud 
aviation...jas 


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