Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
1155 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015 


Update... 


The aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 325 PM EDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 


A quasi-stationary frontal boundary over southern Indiana will move 
off to the southeast late in the weekend and early next week. This 
will result in thunderstorm chances through the weekend but only 
across south central parts after Friday. 


Another frontal system will move in from the northwest on Tuesday 
before stalling across the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow will bring 
increased moisture and instability to the Ohio Valley. This 
combination of the front...moisture...instability and will lead to 
thunderstorm chances across all of central Indiana next week. 


Temperatures will be slightly below normal through most of the next 
seven days with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Next 
Monday will be the exception with normal highs in the middle 80s. 


&& 


Near term /overnight/... 
issued at 1008 PM EDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 


Frontal boundary has shifted a bit further south during the course 
of the evening...generally running now from central Kentucky west/SW 
into northern Arkansas. Isolated convection popping up and down 
over southeast Indiana otherwise dry and mainly cloudy conditions 
for the region this evening. 02z temperatures were generally in the upper 
60s and lower 70s. 


The front is expected to move little overnight as another wave 
ripples along it through the lower Ohio Valley. Broad forcing 
aloft associated with the approaching upper wave will expand into 
the area from the west late which may serve to enhance precipitation 
coverage a bit towards daybreak. Otherwise...it is hard to justify 
much more than just low chance probability of precipitation for areas south of I-70. Held 
on to a mention of thunder with weak instability overnight. Bumped 
lows up a degree with plenty of clouds for much of the forecast 
area through the night. 


Zone and grid updates out. 


&& 


Short term /Friday through Sunday/... 
issued at 325 PM EDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 


The main focus for the short term will be probability of precipitation as near stationary 
front...currently over south central Indiana...will eventually drop 
to around southern Kentucky late in the weekend. By the 
fourth...surface high pressure will build across northern Indiana 
with deep mean layer relative humidity forecasts showing very nice drying from north to 
south to the north of the front. So...Sunday through Monday looks 
dry except for perhaps a low potential for thunderstorms well south 
of Indianapolis during the day on the fourth. However...Friday and 
Friday night...surface waves are expected to slide east across the 
front...and the front should be close enough for shower chances 
south and possibly central. The 12z NAM MOS was an outlier in this 
regarding with likely probability of precipitation as far north as Lafayette for Friday. The 
other models and 12z GFS MOS and ensemble MOS all oppose the 12z NAM 
MOS and appear more realistic based on current radar trends compared 
to the location of the frontal boundary. 


12z MOS blend suggests temperatures will be below normal with highs 
in the upper 70s on Friday. With less cloud cover...expect 
temperatures near normal in the lower to middle 80s Sunday per MOS 
blend. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
issued at 250 PM EDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 


Long term will start our dry and then quite wet by Tuesday and 
Wednesday and no slight chance probability of precipitation by day 7. High pressure over the 
eastern Great Lakes and New England Sunday night will move on to the 
east as a cold front over the upper Midwest moves our way. There 
are some timing difference between models and they have trended a 
little slower than in previous runs. Will mention slight chance 
probability of precipitation over western sections late Monday and then chance probability of precipitation or 
better all areas by Tuesday and Wednesday. This front will finally 
move on through and models move a weak area of high pressure into 
the Great Lakes by Wednesday night and Thursday. 


Tweaked high temperatures up a little Monday. Otherwise...went 
close to a MOS blend of temperatures most other periods. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 050600z tafs/... 
issued at 1155 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015 


Kind expected to remain VFR with winds under 10 kts this period. 


All taf sites develop scattered cumulus by 051500z that should 
dissipate by sunset Sunday. 


Clear sky and light wind still expected to produce a period of 
MVFR visibility at klaf...khuf and kbmg with small potential for IFR at 
kbmg like yesterday morning. Fog thins to unrestricted around 
051200z. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...mk 
near term...Ryan 
short term...mk 
long term...jh 
aviation...drt/jp 


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