Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
1000 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


Update... 
the near term section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 332 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


Calm weather will prevail through tomorrow as high pressure 
strengthens at the surface. However...there will be some chances 
for showers and thunderstorms throughout the forecast period as a 
warm front moves through central Indiana at the end of the week... 
quickly followed by a cold front on Friday night and Saturday. 


&& 


Near term /rest of tonight/... 


Issued at 954 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


0145z update...fog beginning to develop in the last hour across 
portions of the southern County Warning Area where the majority of rain occurred 
in the last 24 hour period. Increased fog coverage to areas from 
patchy south of the Interstate 70 corridor. Debating about whether 
to issue a Special Weather Statement for fog...but will hold off for 
now and wait to see how much develops early tonight. Fog already 
covered in severe weather potential statement...forecast...and graphical weather story at the moment. 
Previous discussion follows. 


Remnant showers and thunderstorms are currently lingering over 
the far southeast counties closest to frontal boundary that 
recently moved through central Indiana. Elsewhere...the remainder 
of central Indiana is currently dry with just some isolated 
development to the northwest of Lafayette. Still expect clearing 
tonight though as drier air filters into the forecast area. This 
combined with lingering low level moisture and light winds will 
create the possibility for patchy fog development. 


Temperatures tonight will drop into the low to middle 60s with the clearing 
skies. This was captured best by the cooler GFS. Some of the 
northern counties may even dip into the upper 50s...this will have 
to be monitored through the course of the evening. 


&& 


Short term /tomorrow through Friday/... 


Issued at 332 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


The main focus of the short term period is shower/thunderstorm 
chances on Thursday and Friday. 


Zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will result in 
dry conditions tomorrow and tomorrow night. Focus then turns to 
Thursday when significant warm air advection with southwesterly 
flow will provide an unstable environment for diurnal thunderstorm 
activity. At this time...the models are struggling a bit in regard 
to Thursday/S forecast. The GFS seems to be overdoing convective 
chances for Thursday...but the NAM and Euro are trending toward a 
dry forecast. For now...will cover this discrepancy with slight 
chance probability of precipitation to account for any pop-up diurnally driven activity on 
Thursday afternoon. 


Friday...high confidence forecast in regard to probability of precipitation as a cold 
front moves through the area...will cover with chance probability of precipitation for 
now...but these will most likely be increased to likely in future 
forecast issuances. 


Temperatures...models have a good handle on the weak warming trend...so went 
with allblend for the entire period. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 


Issued at 332 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


Broad ridge aloft will buckle at the end of the week in response to 
an upper trough amplifying across the northern plains. This will 
enable a cold front to drop south across the Ohio Valley Friday 
night and Saturday with rain and thunderstorms impacting the 
forecast area. Will continue with high chance probability of precipitation through Saturday. 


The front will shift south of the Ohio River Saturday night with 
strong high pressure building across the region for much of the 
remainder of the extended period as it drifts slowly east into New 
England. High temperatures will fall back into the 70s Sunday and Monday 
with overnight lows the coolest seen in the region since the middle 
of August...ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Return flow on 
the back side of the high will bring scattered convection back north 
into the Ohio Valley by midweek along with a warming trend. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for 030000z taf issuance/... 
issued at 718 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


VFR early in the taf period will deteriorate during the overnight as 
fog develops under building high pressure and light winds with ample 
low level moisture. Wet ground from heavy rain early this morning 
will make conditions even worse at khuf and kbmg and have brought 
conditions there down to LIFR and vlifr respectively. At klaf and 
kind expect to see a period of IFR after 9z. By around 13z should 
see conditions start to improve and within an hour or two of hat 
should be VFR for the remainder of Wednesday. Could see few to 
scattered cumulus but do not expect a ceiling with winds 3-8 kts out of 
generally the southwest. 




&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...tdud 
near term...smf 
short term...tdud 
long term....Ryan 
aviation...cp 


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