Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
605 am EDT sun Aug 28 2016 


Update... 
the aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 346 am EDT sun Aug 28 2016 


An upper ridge of high pressure will keep warmer than normal 
temperatures over the area for the next few days. Small chances 
for thunderstorms will continue off and on until Wednesday night 
when surface high pressure builds in behind a cold front that will 
bring cooler and drier air with it. 


&& 


Near term /today/... 


Issued at 346 am EDT sun Aug 28 2016 


Patchy fog will occur across the area through an hour or so after 
daybreak with a decent temperature inversion and dew point 
depressions of 0 to 2 degrees. Shortly after daybreak sunshine 
should mix out any fog. Then focus turns to chances for 
thunderstorms. 


With upper ridging over the area and no forcing mechanism, looks 
like the only thunderstorms today would be those diurnally 
generated with the hot humid air mass. Best chances will be this 
afternoon. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/... 


Issued at 346 am EDT sun Aug 28 2016 


Forecast focus is on thunderstorm chances. Not much available for 
forcing through the period under increasing influence of the upper 
ridge. Diurnal influence will wane tonight so kept a slight chance 
going initially but dropped to dry late tonight. Again went with 
low chances on Monday, with a dry pop in the northeast as surface high 
pressure builds from the north. Expect dry weather Monday night 
and for most of the area Tuesday and Tuesday night under the 
subsidence of the surface high. Could see slight chance in the 
west Tuesday and late Tuesday night where subsidence will be the 
weakest. Temperatures should continue to run warmer than normal 
with the upper ridge producing mostly sunny to partly cloudy 
conditions and the front stalled north of the area keeping humid 
conditions in place. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/... 


Issued at 214 am EDT sun Aug 28 2016 


Tired of the sweat? The heat? The humidity? If so, this section 
of the forecast is for you. 


Ecwmf suggests a weak short wave along with a cool front will 
sweep across the Great Lakes and central Indiana on 
Wednesday....and this will be the Last Chance for precip until at 
least Saturday. Minimal forcing appears available as this short 
wave passes...however there is a good change of air mass as 
Canadian high pressure will build across the Ohio Valley through 
the end of the work week. Models show amplifying high pressure 
aloft along with high pressure in place at the surface and 
excellent mid level drying and subsidence. Dew points amid the NE 
surface flow fall in to the 50 and low 60s...resulting in less 
humid temps. Overall...have kept low chances provided by 
superblend on Wednesday as the weak front passes. Then have 
trended toward a dry forecast through Saturday with strong high 
pressure in place. High temperatures look to fall at or below 
normals by the end of the work week. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 281200z tafs/... 


Issued at 604 am EDT sun Aug 28 2016 


MVFR/IFR fog this morning is expected to quickly burn off as 
heating and mixing resumes...returning conditions to VFR by mid 
morning. 


Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates with convective temps in 
the middle 80s this afternoon. Expect sct convection to develop 
with bases near 3500ft. Have used thunderstorms in the vicinity to account for this. As 
heating is lost within the warm moist column tonight...any 
convection will wane...leading to just continued VFR conditions. 


Once again dew point depressions become very small overnight...and 
MVFR/IFR fog will once again be expected on Monday morning near 
sunrise. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...cp 
near term...cp 
short term...cp 
long term....puma 
aviation...jp 



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