Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
631 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


..updated for 00z aviation discussion... 


Synopsis... 
issued at 223 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


A shortwave trough was lifting east-northeast across the northern 
intermountain region this afternoon while an upper level ridge was 
translating slowly eastward across the central and northern plains 
states. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through friday) 
issued at 223 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


This pattern is expected to result in a continuation of mild 
temperatures across the area through the upcoming week. A Pacific 
front will move over the northern and Central Plains Wednesday-Thursday 
bringing increasing chances for light rain showers across the 
area. The front is expected to become diffuse late Wednesday night into 
Thursday as the better forcing remains north of the area...however 
weak large-scale forcing for ascent will be juxtaposed within a 
weakly capped airmass bringing chances for light showers Wednesday 
afternoon across central Kansas spreading eastward Wednesday night into 
early Thursday across portions of south central and southeast Kansas. This 
was handled well in the previous forecast with only minor 
adjustments planned at this time. Clearing skies from west to east 
on Thursday should allow for a dry afternoon with high temperatures 
rebounding into the 70s which remains well above normal for late 
Oct. 


Friday...a middle/upper ridge is prognosticated to amplify across the southern 
and central Continental U.S. Late in the week bringing rising 
heights/increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures across 
the area. Near-record highs may be possible across portions of 
central Kansas with temperatures in the middle 80s anticipated. 


Long term...(saturday through tuesday) 
issued at 223 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


Mild and dry weather conditions are anticipated through the 
weekend as a middle/upper ridge remains anchored across the central 
and southern Continental U.S.. confidence begins to decrease as we move into 
the early part of next week as another trough is prognosticated to 
translate eastward across The Rockies and into the plains. The GFS 
is much more progressive when compared to the European model (ecmwf)...however both 
suggest a frontal passage early in the week. This will result in a return to 
more seasonable temperatures and increasing chances for showers 
early next week. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening) 
issued at 626 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


The main aviation concern through the forecast period will be the 
timing of gusty southerly winds and increasing sky cover. Cloud 
cover will be increasing throughout the forecast period as an upper 
level trough approaches from the west...VFR conditions are expected 
to prevail throughout the forecast period. Chances for rain increase 
late Wednesday afternoon/evening...especially at the krsl and ksln 
terminals...however confidence that terminals will be impacted 
within the forecast period is not high. Therefore have left 
mentions out of tafs at this time...but mentions of rain showers 
will be introduced in subsequent taf forecasts. 


Ritzman 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 57 81 57 76 / 10 10 50 10 
Hutchinson 56 79 55 74 / 10 30 50 10 
Newton 56 78 56 74 / 10 20 50 10 
Eldorado 56 82 56 75 / 10 10 50 20 
Winfield-kwld 57 81 58 76 / 10 10 50 20 
Russell 56 77 52 74 / 10 50 60 0 
Great Bend 55 77 52 74 / 10 50 60 0 
Salina 56 77 56 74 / 0 30 60 0 
McPherson 56 76 56 73 / 10 30 60 10 
Coffeyville 52 76 55 72 / 10 10 40 30 
Chanute 51 76 54 73 / 0 10 50 30 
Iola 51 76 54 72 / 0 10 50 30 
Parsons-kppf 52 76 55 72 / 10 10 40 30 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 














National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations
Back to forecast page
Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)

Units: English | Metric

Find the Weather for any City, State or Zipcode, or Country:

U.S. State List | Severe Weather | Tropical Storms | Ski Conditions
United States | Canada | Central America | South America | Asia | Europe | Australia | Africa | Islands

Weather Underground Copyright© 2014
Weather Underground, Inc.

Questions or Comments? Contact Us