Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
555 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014 


..updated for 00z aviation discussion... 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 303 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014 


Tonight: 
main concern is winds during the evening. Will extend advisory 
through 0300 UTC and expand another row of counties to the east. 
Winds are more marginal across southeast Kansas and will let evening 
shift make a last minute call. Band of light precipitation should 
continue to move across the area...although amounts so far have 
been trace to a few hundredths. Temperatures have plummeted in the 
light precipitation from evaporation...but there has been some 
modest recovery in its wake. Winds/clouds will likely keep 
minimums up just a bit overnight. 


Monday-Wed: 
dry conditions expected throughout this period...but influx of 
high clouds...downslope flow and dry air will make temperatures 
more challenging than normal. Looks to be a bit more sunshine on 
Monday...but extensive middle-high clouds could move in Tuesday afternoon 
in the west. Temperatures there will be highly depending on that 
timing/amount of clouds given lower sun angle. -Howerton 


Long term...(thursday through sunday) 
issued at 303 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014 


Still showing fairly decent large scale agreement between models. 
But run to run consistency on surface features has been lacking. 
Very cold airmass lurking to the north could spell trouble with 
verification. Exact strength/direction of northwest flow and/or 
strength of ripples in northwest flow will have major impact on 
where cold air settles. At this point...uncertainty dictates 
sticking with initialization/consensus grids for temperatures and 
keeping dry forecast going. -Howerton 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening) 
issued at 555 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014 


The front is through the region with Post frontal precipitation 
across the eastern half of the state. Winds are gusty behind the 
front through the precipitation region before tapering off on the 
back end of the precipitation. Lower end MVFR ceilings will be 
rising as the precipitation ends this evening. VFR conditions are 
expected by 06z at kcnu with the remainder of the terminals 
already above VFR or will be shortly. Northwesterly winds will 
diminish to 10 to 20 kts overnight and increase again Sunday 
afternoon. 


Billings Wright 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 30 50 25 49 / 20 0 0 0 
Hutchinson 30 48 24 49 / 10 0 0 0 
Newton 29 45 24 48 / 30 0 0 0 
Eldorado 30 47 27 48 / 60 0 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 32 52 27 50 / 60 0 0 0 
Russell 28 48 22 50 / 10 0 0 0 
Great Bend 28 48 24 50 / 10 0 0 0 
Salina 30 47 24 49 / 10 0 0 0 
McPherson 30 47 23 49 / 10 0 0 0 
Coffeyville 33 52 27 49 / 70 10 0 0 
Chanute 31 48 25 47 / 70 10 0 0 
Iola 31 46 25 47 / 70 10 0 0 
Parsons-kppf 32 49 24 49 / 70 10 0 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ksz049>052-067-068- 
082. 


Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ksz053-069-070-083- 
091>094-098. 


&& 


$$ 






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