Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
613 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014 


..updated for 00z aviation discussion... 


Synopsis... 
issued at 236 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014 


Water vapor imagery shows one shortwave trough lifting over the 
western Great Lakes with another piece of energy tracking southeast 
out of central Wyoming. At the surface...the synoptic cold front 
extends from eastern MO to near kict and finally into the OK 
Panhandle. An outflow boundary...from early morning convection...stretches 
from near kavk to kpnc and to just north of Tulsa. This feature 
has been very slowly lifting north and is very evident on visible 
satellite imagery. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 236 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014 


The best potential for daytime surface based storms looks to be 
along the outflow that is lifting slowly north out of northern OK 
with southeast Kansas looking fairly stable with plenty of low clouds. 
Another favorable area may be southeast of Pratt...where the outflow 
boundary and synoptic cold front intersect. Better convective 
coverage looks to be just after dark as moisture transport and 
isentropic lift increases in the 310-315k layer...especially 
southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. Any storm late this afternoon or 
tonight will have a good chance of becoming severe with 0-6km 
shear in the 45-55kt range and plenty of instability...even in an 
elevated layer. Golf Ball to hen egg size hail will be likely with 
the stronger storms this evening. 


Did go ahead and throw a few counties in a Flash Flood Watch over 
southeast Kansas. Confidence is lower on the northern extent of the watch but 
many of those counties received heavy rain early this morning...so 
won't take nearly as much. 


We will get back to zonal flow on Tuesday as the upper impulse quickly 
moves into the Ohio Valley. Even though it will be fairly 
weak...some moisture transport and Theta-E advection remains over 
southern Kansas on Tuesday which may lead to some lingering showers and 
storms...especially during the morning hours. A much more 
impressive elevated convection signal arrives for Tuesday night with 
good model agreement in a large area of strong 850-700mb moisture 
transport...especially over the eastern half of the forecast area. 
This activity will quickly push east leaving dry and warmer 
conditions for Wednesday. 


Long term...(thursday through monday) 
issued at 236 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014 


By Thursday both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS agree on a shortwave tracking 
across Manitoba with another impulse over the Pacific northwest. Both of 
these features will continue tracking east through Thursday night. This 
will result in a cold front making its way south across the 
Central Plains and eventually into central Kansas by Friday. This will 
keep moderate rain chances across the entire area for the Friday-Sat 
time frame. Confidence beyond Sat drops off quickly as the European model (ecmwf) 
and GFS start to diverge. The GFS is much aggressive in digging a 
trough over the western Continental U.S. Compared to the European model (ecmwf) which leads to 
the GFS being stronger with return flow over the plains and thus a 
wetter solution. Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend with 
the cold front in the area with a warming trend to start the work week. 


Lawson 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening) 
issued at 609 PM CDT Monday Sep 1 2014 


Convergence boundaries extending across south central through east 
central Kansas will be the focus for strong-severe storm development 
this evening. Will carry tempo thunderstorms and rain at ict and cnu terminals this 
evening...with no thunder mention further north into central Kansas. This 
activity may shift southeast into far southeast Kansas and northern 
Oklahoma by 06z. Other isolated-widely scattered thunderstorms and rain may develop 
late tonight across southern Kansas/northern OK...with additional 
isentropic lift/moisture transport occurring. With light/variable 
winds and dewpoints fairly high in most of the area...areas of 
early morning MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibilities appear possible especially in 
central Kansas. 


Jmc 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 69 90 71 95 / 40 20 30 10 
Hutchinson 66 88 71 95 / 30 20 30 10 
Newton 66 89 70 94 / 30 20 30 10 
Eldorado 68 89 71 94 / 40 20 30 20 
Winfield-kwld 71 89 72 94 / 50 30 30 10 
Russell 62 87 69 96 / 10 10 20 10 
Great Bend 63 87 69 95 / 10 10 20 10 
Salina 64 87 71 95 / 10 10 40 20 
McPherson 65 87 70 94 / 20 10 30 10 
Coffeyville 70 88 72 92 / 70 40 30 20 
Chanute 69 88 71 92 / 70 30 40 20 
Iola 68 88 70 92 / 60 20 40 20 
Parsons-kppf 70 88 72 92 / 70 40 30 20 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ksz071-072-094>096- 
098>100. 


&& 


$$ 



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