Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
309 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 23 2016 


Short term...(this evening through Thursday night) 
issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016 


Short-term forecast highlights focus around thunderstorm chances 
this afternoon-evening through Thursday night, with an attendant 
threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall/flooding. Heavy 
rain/flooding threat will be highest Wed evening-night and Thu 
evening-night. 


Convergence associated with Lee trough approaching from the west 
in concert with subtle upper disturbances associated with an upper 
jet Max currently progressing northeast over mid-America could 
support a small cluster or two of thunderstorms late this 
afternoon-evening generally along/west of Salina-Wichita- 
Wellington. Atmosphere is strong unstable and weakly capped. Given 
weak forcing and subtle convergence, probably won't be looking at 
widespread activity. However, strong instability and so-so lapse 
rates along with marginal deep layer shear will support a low to 
modest severe threat of large hail and damaging winds with 
anything that can form, along with locally heavy rain. Given 
shortwave ridging approaching from the southwest, activity should 
tend to wane by midnight. 


Attention then turns to severe weather and especially heavy 
rain/flooding threat Wed afternoon/evening through Thu night, as a 
cold front approaches from the north, eventually stalling west- 
east somewhere in vicinity of the Kansas/OK border. A number of 
ingredients are expected to come together to produce the potential 
for numerous training thunderstorms in the vicinity of the 
frontal zone, including: rich low-level moisture, modest nighttime 
low-level jet, mid-upper flow parallel to frontal zone and 
persistent lift underneath right entrance region of upper jet. 
Given the modest to poor mid-level lapse rates and high 
precipitable water airmass, locally very heavy rainfall rates 
appear likely with this activity, along with an attendant threat 
of localized flash flooding. Greatest threat area for Wed 
afternoon-eve appears to be generally north of Hutchinson- 
Cottonwood Falls, with the threat shifting into mainly southern Kansas 
for Thu afternoon-evening. Could also be looking at a handful of 
severe storms Wed-Thu, although thinking marginal deep layer shear 
and unimpressive lapse rates will probably support a lower end 
severe threat of quarter size hail and wet microbursts. 


Long term...(friday through tuesday) 
issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016 


Unsettled weather should linger through the weekend and into next 
week, as overall mid-upper troughiness remains just to the west 
of the region, interacting with a continued moist/unstable 
airmass. Specifics remain low, so just held onto 20-30 pops for 
now. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon) 
issued at 11 am CDT Tue Aug 23 2016 


Scattered-broken decks from around 1500-2500ft are lkly in most areas thru 
mid-aftn. The exceptions would be kgbd & krsl. All areas should 
achieve VFR status ~21z. Scattered thunderstorms and rain are psbl acrs the neighborhood 
thru tmrw aftn with the greatest chances encountered acrs cntrl Kansas 
where closest to a slow se-movg cdfnt. With the front driving thru 
a school zone, the ultra-high octane Gulf moisture will have extra 
time to spread acrs the region, so +tsra are psbl, producing ocnl 
IFR vsbys. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 75 92 69 82 / 30 30 60 40 
Hutchinson 74 91 66 79 / 30 50 70 40 
Newton 73 90 67 80 / 30 40 60 40 
Eldorado 74 91 68 83 / 30 30 60 40 
Winfield-kwld 76 93 70 86 / 30 30 40 40 
Russell 69 85 61 76 / 20 50 50 30 
Great Bend 71 89 62 77 / 30 50 50 30 
Salina 73 91 66 79 / 20 50 60 30 
McPherson 74 90 66 79 / 30 50 70 40 
Coffeyville 75 95 72 91 / 20 20 20 40 
Chanute 74 92 70 87 / 30 30 30 40 
Iola 74 92 70 86 / 30 30 40 40 
Parsons-kppf 75 94 72 89 / 20 30 30 40 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...adk 
long term...adk 
aviation...eps 



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