Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1203 am CDT Wednesday Jul 27 2016 


Update... 
issued at 940 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016 


The thunderstorms that were occurring over far southeast Kansas have 
dissipated "on schedule". As such all products have been updated 
to announce these changes. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through Friday night) 
issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016 


Convective trends with potential mesoscale convective system tracks the next few nights 
remains the main challenge. Isolated to widely scattered diurnally 
driven convection developed as expected near the Oklahoma border 
primarily in southeast Kansas this afternoon. Expect this activity 
to wane toward sunset with perhaps a couple strong storms with 
gusty winds possible. Otherwise the main focus for convection will 
be across the northern plains this evening into the overnight. Some 
patchy fog is possible in low-lying areas of the Flint Hills and 
central Kansas. Mesoscale outflow of the expected storm clusters or 
mesoscale convective system evolving from the northern plains tonight will likely modulate 
the effective surface front southward into southern Nebraska and 
perhaps close to the Kansas border during Wednesday. A shortwave 
now moving over the far northwest Continental U.S. Should venture across the 
northern plains during peak heating Wednesday afternoon/evening. 
These features should be sufficient to focus and force convection 
along the surface front by early Wednesday evening. A modest 
increase in winds aloft is expected to develop in proximity to the 
developing storm cluster which should increase the cloud-bearing 
deep layer shear and aid in storm maintenance with a southeastward 
movement/propagation across north central and portions of eastern 
Kansas Wednesday night. The challenge then becomes how far south 
the convective complex and resultant mesoscale outflow comes and 
modulates the airmass for Thursday and the position of the 
effective surface front across the area. After any lingering 
convection early Thursday morning there could be a relative lull 
into the afternoon, though will maintain slight to modest chance 
pops. However, upslope flow focused north of the front across 
western Kansas and another approaching shortwave aloft late 
Thursday should result in another convective cluster or mesoscale convective system over 
the High Plains which would tend to move/propagate across western 
into portions of central Kansas Thursday night. Friday should be 
the coolest day of the next few in the wake of Thursday nights 
system and perhaps drier than indicated, though will maintain a 
modest pop through the day as there is enough uncertainty with the 
expected convection the next few days and where the effective 
boundary will actually be situated by Friday. 


Darmofal 


Long term...(saturday through tuesday) 
issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016 


Upper ridge still on track to build over the central Continental U.S. 
By early next week so the trend toward hot and dry still looks 
reasonable. 


Ked 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night) 
issued at 1203 am CDT Wed Jul 27 2016 


There's renewed potl for ~1500 ft stratus to spread acrs most of 
cntrl & SC Kansas twd daybreak as weak east-southeast flow conts. Possess 
sufficient confidence to place most terminals (spcly kict, khut, & 
ksln) in MVFR cig status from ~10-14z. Cigs shud fairly quickly to 
~3,000 ft 16-18z. West/ dense cirriform debris from thunderstorms and rain ocrg FM cntrl 
Nebraska to the Colorado/Kansas bdr the potl for br aprs minimal for cntrl Kansas 
twd ~10z but wl 'air' on side of caution & assign 5sm br to cntrl 
Kansas terminals. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 72 92 72 91 / 20 10 40 30 
Hutchinson 70 91 71 90 / 10 10 50 30 
Newton 70 90 71 89 / 20 10 50 30 
Eldorado 71 91 71 89 / 30 10 40 40 
Winfield-kwld 72 91 72 92 / 30 20 30 30 
Russell 69 92 69 89 / 10 20 50 20 
Great Bend 69 92 70 89 / 10 10 40 20 
Salina 70 93 70 90 / 10 20 60 20 
McPherson 71 91 71 89 / 10 10 50 30 
Coffeyville 72 91 72 91 / 60 20 30 40 
Chanute 72 90 71 89 / 50 20 30 40 
Iola 71 90 71 89 / 40 20 40 40 
Parsons-kppf 72 91 72 90 / 50 20 30 40 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...eps 
short term...ked 
long term...ked 
aviation...eps 






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