Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
627 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015 

..updated for 12z aviation discussion... 

issued at 420 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015 

All is quiet across the Kansas neighborhood as large but weak lower- 
deck high pressure covers the central and southern U.S. Early this 
morning. The clear skies and calm/light wind are producing ideal 
radiational cooling with 3 am temperatures ranging from around 30 
in central Kansas to around 40 across far southern Kansas. 


Short term...(today through wednesday) 
issued at 420 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015 

Today-Tuesday night: 
a weak lower-deck trough settling S/southeast should reach central Kansas late 
this afternoon. This will force the weak high pressure southeast across 
the lower MS valley to enable southerly flow to return to the kict 
neighborhood. Although relative humidities should drop into the 
middle 20s the southerly winds will not be strong enough to cause any 
fire weather concerns this afternoon. All will remain quiet but 
Tuesday night a surface trough will raipdly develop over the Western 
Plains to induce southerly flow to become more assertive...thus 
enabling Gulf moisture to migrate toward Kansas. 

Wednesday and Wednesday night: 
a broad middle-level trough should move east across the Great Plains 
Wednesday night which will allow a cold front to sweep southeast across 
Kansas late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The cold front 
will find ample moisture to work with to induce numerous 
thunderstorms to develop from Nebraska...Iowa and MO to central and 
eastern Kansas. With the greater moisture convergence targeting NE Kansas 
the higher thunderstorm chances would therefore occur over the NE 
corridor of the County Warning Area Wednesday night a few of which may be strong. 

Long term...(thursday through sunday) 
issued at 420 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015 

Thursday and Thursday night: 
as the cold front settles S/southeast across the Kansas/OK border Thursday 
morning the better chances for showers and thunderstorms would 
therefore shift S/southeast across southern Kansas with the great chances 
targeting southeast Kansas where lower-deck moisture convergence is stronger 
and hence the greater thunderstorm potential. With the initial 
middle-level shortwave scooting toward the Great Lakes the front will 
decellerate and eventually stall in an east-west manner across OK. A 
stronger middle-upper shortwave will swing southeast across the northern and 
Central Plains to induce lower-deck cyclogenesis across the 
western Red River. As the middle-upper deck shortwave crosses the 
northern and Central Plains a 2nd cold front will develop from southeast 
Kansas across OK to the Texas Panhandle. This would produce a 2nd round 
of showers and thunderstorms across the region Thursday night with 
the greater chances targeting southeast Kansas where moist lower-deck 
convergence is greatest. 

Rest of the week: 
quiet weather returns to the region on Friday as stronger high 
pressure spreads southeast across the Kansas neighborhood. 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning) 
issued at 627 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015 

VFR conditions are expected today. Surface winds will gradually 
return to the south-southwest this afternoon...with some wind gusts 
to 25 kts across portions of central Kansas. Expect the winds to 
diminish after sunset. 



Fire weather... 
issued at 420 am CDT Monday Mar 30 2015 

Although relative humidities will drop into the middle and upper 20s 
onsetting S/SW lower deck flow should be modest to keep fire 
weather concerns in check this afternoon. On Tuesday the rangeland 
fire danger will be even lower as weak easterly flow spreads 
across Kansas in the wake of the decellerating front. 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 74 48 82 54 / 0 0 10 10 
Hutchinson 74 45 81 52 / 0 0 10 10 
Newton 74 48 80 53 / 0 0 10 10 
Eldorado 74 48 80 53 / 0 0 10 10 
Winfield-kwld 74 50 81 54 / 0 0 10 10 
Russell 78 42 81 51 / 0 0 10 10 
Great Bend 77 43 81 52 / 0 0 10 10 
Salina 75 45 80 52 / 0 0 10 10 
McPherson 74 45 80 52 / 0 0 10 10 
Coffeyville 73 50 78 53 / 0 0 10 10 
Chanute 73 48 78 53 / 0 0 10 10 
Iola 72 47 77 52 / 0 0 10 10 
Parsons-kppf 73 48 78 53 / 0 0 10 10 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 


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