Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1251 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014 


..updated for 18z aviation discussion... 


Synopsis... 
issued at 337 am CDT Sat Sep 20 2014 


A cold front extends from the upper MS valley across Nebraska to NE Colorado. 
Across Kansas southerly 5-15 miles per hour winds prevail with the lighter winds over 
southeast Kansas where areas of light fog are occurring. Temperatures range 
from lower 70s in central & south-central Kansas to the upper 60s in 
southeast Kansas. 


&& 


Update... 
issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014 


Decreased/removed probability of precipitation through the afternoon over central Kansas. 
Chances of thunderstorm development early this afternoon look to 
be slim. Feel better chances exist later this afternoon and 
overnight. 


Billings Wright 


&& 


Short term...(today through monday) 
issued at 337 am CDT Sat Sep 20 2014 


This morning: 
with the exception of Independence where visibilities were briefly at 
1/4 visibilities across southeast Kansas have been consistently 2-3 miles 
& with visibilities improving at Independence have cancelled the dense 
fog advisory that had been in effect until 7 am as winds are slowly 
shifting to due south & will slowly increase. 


Rest of the weekend: 
primary focus is thunderstorm-related. A middle-upper shortwave that is 
moving southeast across the Dakotas will strengthen considerably & 
accelerate as it surges across the upper MS valley late tonight then 
across the Ohio Valley on sun. This would drive the cold front southeast 
toward Kansas tonight with the front decelerating as it moves through 
central Kansas late tonight as the greatest acceleration of the middle-upper 
wave would be well to the NE of Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are still 
expected to develop over northern & central Kansas this afternoon & 
tonight. Deep-layer shear is increasing over northeast Kansas & northern 
MO, as such a few severe thunderstorms may clip areas along & NE of a 
line from ksln-kcnu. As the front resumes its S/southeast trek toward...then 
across...the Kansas OK border the best chances of thunderstorms would 
likewise shift south across the Kansas/OK border Sun morning as an 
inverted surface ridge builds south across Kansas. As such rainfall 
across south-central & southeast Kansas should end by middle-morning on sun. 
Sun night would be mostly clear & cool as surface high increases 
influence. 


Monday & Monday night: 
thunderstorms are still scheduled to arrive western Kansas Monday afternoon & 
spread east toward...then across...central & south-central Kansas Monday night 
as the next middle-level shortwave digs further S along the Front Range. 


Long term...(tuesday through friday) 
issued at 337 am CDT Sat Sep 20 2014 


With strong(!) Upper-deck high pressure covering the eastern half of 
the U.S. The middle-level shortwave will decelerate before moving NE as 
it crosses Kansas. This would keep all of Kansas in a moist environment. As 
such periodic showers/thunderstorms would occur across the 
neighborhood for most of the upcoming work-week. Instability is 
lacking & as such thunderstorms should not achieve severity. Friday & Friday 
night should be dry...but these periods will obviously be covered in 
greater detail next week. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon) 
issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014 


Kcnu has had visibility and ceiling restrictions for much of the 
morning and the low clouds MVFR will persist into the early 
afternoon hours. At the other terminals...low-mid level clouds are 
developing in the moist airmass south of the front. Expect kict 
and khut to have broken skies at low end VFR criteria. 


Thunderstorms remain possible later today and tonight. Confidence 
in location is low. Feel the best chances exist across south 
central and southeast Kansas later tonight along the front...but 
even that may be spotty coverage. Have thunderstorms in the vicinity in the tafs at this 
time with updated timing from earlier forecast...but leaving out 
prevailing ts until there is better confidence. As the front 
moves through winds will become northeasterly. 


Billings Wright 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 91 65 80 55 / 10 40 20 10 
Hutchinson 91 63 78 54 / 10 50 10 10 
Newton 90 62 78 53 / 10 50 10 10 
Eldorado 91 64 80 54 / 10 40 10 0 
Winfield-kwld 91 68 82 56 / 10 40 30 10 
Russell 91 57 77 52 / 20 30 0 10 
Great Bend 91 59 77 53 / 20 40 10 10 
Salina 91 60 79 53 / 20 30 0 10 
McPherson 91 61 78 53 / 20 40 0 10 
Coffeyville 90 68 80 56 / 10 30 20 0 
Chanute 89 66 79 54 / 10 40 10 0 
Iola 88 65 78 54 / 10 40 10 0 
Parsons-kppf 90 67 80 55 / 10 30 20 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 
















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