Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
941 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


Synopsis... 
issued at 316 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


In the upper levels we currently have a deep closed low lifting 
over the northeast Continental U.S. With an open wave quickly tracking across 
the northern plains. At the surface...light rain associated with 
shortwave energy is affecting mainly eastern Kansas. A cold front 
extends from northeast Nebraska into northwest Kansas. 


&& 


Update... 
issued at 941 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


Will send out a quick update to end the dense fog advisory as 
surface visibilities slowly rise. May keep some patchy fog in for a 
few hours...but gradual wind shift to the northwest will begin to 
scour out some of the low-middle cloudiness as the morning progresses. 
So will see clouds diminish from northwest to southeast as the daytime progresses. 
Think most of south central and southeast Kansas will stay in the 
cloudiness for until late this afternoon...as low level 
moisture remains fairly high...with moisture transport pushing any 
remnant showers further east of the area this morning. 


Ketcham 


&& 


Short term...(today through saturday) 
issued at 316 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


A few scattered showers will affect southeast Kansas this morning but should 
be east of the forecast area by late morning. As the upper wave 
departs...northwest flow aloft will settle over the plains. This will 
continue to promote well above normal temperatures for today through Sat. 
850mb temperatures and 1000-850mb thicknesses are still supportive of 
temperatures Friday and Sat in the 85-90 degree range...especially over the 
southern half of the forecast area. A downslope component to 
surface winds Friday only adds to the confidence in these very warm 
readings 


Long term...(sunday through wednesday) 
issued at 316 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


European model (ecmwf) and GFS continue to agree well on additional shortwave 
energy coming onshore by Sun morning and across The Rockies Sun 
night. The European model (ecmwf) continues to trend toward the GFS in keeping this 
an open...more progressive wave. Will introduce some small rain 
chances for Monday...but feel the better chances will be Monday 
night...especially over southeast Kansas. Just like this system affecting US 
now...not expecting any heavy rainfall due to the progressive 
nature of this shortwave. A cold front will push across the plains 
Monday into Tuesday and will drop temperatures back to seasonal normals for the 
Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. 


Lawson 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning) 
issued at 632 am CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


For ict-sln-hut-cnu-rsl...widespread MVFR ceilings will prevail 
across much of the area this morning...gradually scattering out 
this afternoon. Thinking most areas will remain above 2000 feet 
above ground level. The exception will be rsl...with LIFR conditions prevailing 
through middle-late morning. Areas of showers will affect far 
southeast Kansas through about mid-morning. 


Adk 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 76 56 87 56 / 10 0 0 0 
Hutchinson 75 55 86 54 / 10 0 0 0 
Newton 75 54 83 55 / 10 0 0 0 
Eldorado 74 56 85 57 / 20 0 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 76 56 85 57 / 20 0 0 0 
Russell 74 54 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 
Great Bend 74 54 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 
Salina 74 55 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 
McPherson 74 55 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 
Coffeyville 73 54 82 56 / 30 10 0 0 
Chanute 73 54 82 55 / 30 10 0 0 
Iola 73 53 82 55 / 40 10 0 0 
Parsons-kppf 72 54 82 55 / 30 10 0 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 



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