Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
931 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015 


Update... 
issued at 931 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015 


Isolated storms finally developed in an uncapped airmass over 
extreme southeast Kansas this evening. Storms continue to remain fairly 
stationary...regenerating on any outflow that develops. Do not 
think the storms will last much past sunset...as heating of the day 
is lost and moisture transport isnt all that focused. Will keep a 
isolated storm mention in for another hour or two. 


Next concern will be across northern and central Kansas...as moisture 
transport stays focused in this area overnight...ahead of the main 
synoptic cold front that will push south into Kansas by Monday morning. 
Current gird/forecast has probability of precipitation in central Kansas after midnight...which 
looks okay...possibly a little too fast...given lack of any middle 
level isentropic lift in this area. Will trim back the southern edge 
of the probability of precipitation...as think any chances will be confined to areas north 
of Highway 56 until sunrise on Monday. 


Ketcham 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 309 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015 


Main concern is heavy rainfall placement and duration and the 
resultant precipitation totals Monday into Tuesday. A moderate to 
very unstable airmass will reside along/east of the I-135 corridor 
through early this evening with little if any cap...so may keep 
isolated chances in some of these areas. Otherwise...the rest of 
the night should be dry as we await the approaching surface cold 
front on Monday. This front will move across central Kansas during 
the morning and to along the Turnpike corridor by early evening. 
While forcing for ascent will be weaker along the tail end of the 
northern plains upper trough across Kansas...the combo of diurnal 
heating/strong instability and convergence along the front should 
result in the development of scattered to numerous storms by 
afternoon. This looks to transition from parts of central Kansas 
southeastward into south central and southeast Kansas during the 
evening and overnight hours. A few marginally severe storms can be 
expected before dark...with the relatively weak shear/higher cape 
environment lending to downburst wind potential. Otherwise the 
main threat during the evening and overnight will be locally heavy 
rainfall with high precipitable water values lending to efficient 
rain producers with a period of training convection possible. 
Although there is some support for pushing convection further 
south a bit quicker into Tuesday...will maintain relatively higher 
chances across southeast Kansas with rapid transition to a dry 
forecast over central Kansas. The frontal boundary and instability 
will be confined across far southern Kansas and/or northern 
Oklahoma into Tuesday night...before some northward migration 
across the area during Wednesday. This looks to renew chances for 
convection across the area as the front and returning moisture 
also encounter a migratory shortwave in the weak westerly flow 
aloft. Temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will average much 
below seasonal climatology. 


Darmofal 


Long term...(thursday through sunday) 
issued at 309 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015 


The European model (ecmwf) remains a bit more aggressive with height rises and 
building the upper ridge north into Oklahoma and southern Kansas 
by the weekend. Even so...there is general support for a return 
to more seasonal temperatures and lessening chances for precipitation 
for most areas. 


Ked 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening) 
issued at 556 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015 


VFR conditions expected this evening and tonight...as southerly 
breezes continue across the area. There is a very slim chance of an 
isolated storm developing over extreme southeast Kansas before sunset...but 
this chance appears too small to mention in the kcnu taf. 


Otherwise the main concern will be a cold front expected to push 
into central Kansas during the daytime hours on Monday...reaching krsl and 
ksln by around 17-18z/Mon. Convergence and instalibity looks to 
increase along this front for a chance of showers and thunderstorms 
for Monday afternoon. So will mention a thunderstorms in the vicinity for both krsl/ksln by 
around 18z and shift the winds to the northwest. The cold front will 
continue to push southeast into south central Kansas by late Monday afternoon. 
Will include a thunderstorms in the vicinity for the khut/kict tafs after 20-21z. 


Expect to see a widespread shower/thunderstorm chance for Monday 
evening for most taf locations. But this chance will be beyond this 
taf issuance. 


Ketcham 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 74 89 65 76 / 10 70 90 40 
Hutchinson 73 88 64 77 / 10 80 90 30 
Newton 73 88 64 75 / 10 80 90 30 
Eldorado 73 89 65 75 / 10 70 90 50 
Winfield-kwld 74 91 66 76 / 10 50 90 60 
Russell 72 83 62 79 / 30 70 50 10 
Great Bend 72 84 62 78 / 20 80 60 10 
Salina 74 87 63 79 / 20 80 80 10 
McPherson 73 87 63 77 / 10 80 80 20 
Coffeyville 73 90 69 77 / 10 20 80 80 
Chanute 72 89 67 75 / 10 40 90 70 
Iola 72 89 67 74 / 10 40 90 70 
Parsons-kppf 73 89 68 76 / 10 30 90 80 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 



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