Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
647 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016 


Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night) 
issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016 


The main portion of a strong upper low/trough over the northern 
rockies will lift northeastward across the northern/Central Plains 
and upper Mississippi Valley tonight through Sunday night, while the 
southern portion of this trough breaks off and shifts southwestward 
into northern Mexico and the baja region. An attendant, Pacific 
front stretching from the Texas Panhandle through central Kansas to 
eastern Nebraska will remain quasi-stationary into this evening, 
before a surge of stronger cold air advection arrives late tonight 
from the northwest. This surge will push the front through 
central/south-central Kansas late tonight, and southeast Kansas on 
Sunday. 


850-300 mb mean south-southwesterly flow will persist along/east of 
the front, maintaining a corridor of anomalously high precipitable 
water air. Forcing for ascent from the right-rear quadrant of an 
upper jet streak, and low-level convergence near the front will be 
focused in this high moisture corridor. This will support numerous 
showers/thunderstorms in especially central/south-central Kansas 
through about 06z tonight, with the higher rain probabilities 
then shifting to the Flint Hills/southeast Kansas late tonight into 
midday Sunday. Will mention locally heavy rainfall given the deep 
mean-layer flow parallel to the front, and anomalously high 
moisture content. A widespread rain total ranging from 0.50 inch 
to 2 inches is likely by midday Sunday. Localized amounts of 3 
inches or greater are possible where echo training occurs, which 
could lead to localized flooding. 


Pockets of moderate instability may yield isolated strong to 
marginally severe wind gusts through early this evening, however 
the primary concern will be heavy rainfall/localized flooding. 
Rain chances will diminish from northwest to southeast Sunday 
into Sunday evening as the front progresses through the region, 
with cooler and drier air following in its wake through Monday and 
Tuesday. 


Long term...(wednesday through saturday) 
issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016 


Mid-level ridging over the Central Plains Wednesday-Thursday is 
progged to flatten late in the week, as an upstream upper trough 
pushes into the Pacific northwest. A weaker shortwave trough is 
progged to eject out of The Rockies across the Central Plains late 
in the week ahead of the upstream, main upper trough, with some 
timing differences between the operational GFS and European model (ecmwf). Southerly 
return flow and moisture return looks meager, and only slight 
chances for thunderstorms remain in the picture for late in the week. 
Temperatures will be around seasonal averages. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening) 
issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016 


Tough call at all sites throughout the night as initial band of 
rain showers/thunderstorm moves across most sites early this 
evening. Expect second band to develop in the vicinity of krsl 
around midnight and then sweep across the area. This will be in the 
vicinity of the cold front and trailing/stronger shortwave. MVFR 
ceilings appears probable in the vicinity of front and IFR is 
possible. Will stick with MVFR ceilings for now. Much drier air on 
gusty northwest winds should scour out clouds quickly. Kcnu will 
be slowest to clear with lower end VFR or MVFR ceilings likely for 
most of the period. -Howerton 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 63 73 51 73 / 80 50 10 0 
Hutchinson 61 73 48 72 / 70 30 0 0 
Newton 62 73 50 71 / 90 40 0 0 
Eldorado 64 72 51 72 / 90 60 10 0 
Winfield-kwld 65 73 52 72 / 90 60 10 0 
Russell 55 73 44 72 / 20 10 0 0 
Great Bend 57 73 45 72 / 30 10 0 0 
Salina 60 74 47 72 / 60 20 0 0 
McPherson 60 73 48 72 / 70 30 0 0 
Coffeyville 68 74 54 72 / 80 80 20 0 
Chanute 66 72 52 71 / 80 80 10 0 
Iola 66 72 52 70 / 80 80 10 0 
Parsons-kppf 67 73 53 72 / 80 80 20 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...jmc 
long term...jmc 
aviation...pjh 



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