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fxus63 kict 192318 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
518 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017 


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night) 
issued at 235 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017 


Main issue will be precipitation chances early and late in the 
forecast. Also warmer than normal temperatures early before 
returning to normal late. 


This evening and tonight... 
the current conditions are showing very moist air migrating or 
advecting north across Oklahoma as I type. Dewpoints are already 
in the 60s in the southern sections of Oklahoma. This northward 
advection will continue tonight. The main region with the highest 
concentration of moisture will be along the Flint Hills region and 
areas eastward. Therefore, I have increased the chances for rain 
accordingly. With fog already occurring this morning, I am 
anticipating patchy and possibly areas of fog towards sunrise 
again. The overnight shift may need to hoist a dense fog advisory 
if conditions warrant. The main hindrance for fog will be the 
frontal boundary moving across the forecast area and developing 
showers and isolated thunder for the region. Some weak instability 
is present overnight, so I have included isolated thunder with 
the showers. 


Monday through Wednesday... 
lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms will slide east out 
of the forecast area by mid afternoon on Monday. Most locations 
west of the Flint Hills should remain dry. On Tuesday, high 
pressure will filter into the region bringing light south winds 
before swinging to the north with a weak frontal boundary passage. 
This weak system should not produce any precipitation. Another 
weak high will settle in on Wednesday before a stronger low 
pressure system moves in from the southwest. 


Long term...(thursday through sunday) 
issued at 235 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017 


Thursday and Friday...a strong low pressure system will invade the 
forecast area during the day on Thursday and exit by Friday 
morning. Colder air will infiltrate the area with temperatures in 
north central sections falling to just below freezing and the 
chance for rain will likely mix or change over to snow. No 
significant accumulations are expected. 


Saturday and Sunday... 
a more seasonable high 
pressure system will then overtake conditions and bring about more 
seasonable weather over the weekend with lows below freezing and 
highs in the 50s. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening) 
issued at 515 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017 


Low clouds are expected to fill in across the region tonight but 
not expecting dense fog due to low levels more mixed and scattered 
showers/storms moving across the area. A line of showers and 
storms will develop over south central Kansas and spread slowly 
eastward later tonight. Meanwhile a cold front will push into 
central Kansas Monday morning and slide east across the state. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
issued at 235 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017 


Even with the rain that is expected to occur overnight and 
tomorrow morning, a high to very high fire danger will occur 
across portions of north central Kansas on Monday and Tuesday. 
This is the area that has the least likely Hood of precipitation 
and the amounts will be much less than locations further to the 
south and east. 


Wind gusts across the high fire danger areas will also see wind 
gusts into the lower 20 mph range with relative humidity values in the lower 20s 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 56 73 41 76 / 60 20 0 0 
Hutchinson 54 72 38 76 / 50 10 0 0 
Newton 55 70 41 74 / 50 20 0 0 
Eldorado 56 71 42 76 / 60 20 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 57 72 41 76 / 70 20 0 0 
Russell 51 70 36 77 / 40 10 0 0 
Great Bend 51 70 36 76 / 40 10 0 0 
Salina 55 73 38 76 / 50 10 0 0 
McPherson 55 72 38 75 / 50 20 0 0 
Coffeyville 59 71 44 76 / 70 50 10 0 
Chanute 58 71 43 75 / 70 50 10 0 
Iola 58 71 43 75 / 80 50 10 0 
Parsons-kppf 59 70 44 76 / 70 50 10 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 



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