Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1142 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


..updated for 06z aviation discussion... 


Short term...(this evening through monday) 
issued at 232 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


In the near term...a weak surface trough axis will slide slowly 
southward across central/eastern Kansas tonight into Saturday morning. 
Very light winds...low dewpoint depressions...clear skies could lead 
to areas of fog over eastern Kansas late tonight into early Saturday. 


A fairly strong upper ridge will move slowly east across the 
central/Southern Plains tonight into this weekend. Anomalously warm 
850-700 layer temperatures will therefore spread northeast across 
our forecast area. This will lead to well above average temperatures 
through this weekend...with highs near record levels Saturday-Sunday 
along with dry weather. Some high-level cirroform cloudiness may 
increase by Sunday afternoon ahead of the next upper trough/jet 
streak pushing through the western states. However...this will be 
countered with stronger south-southwesterly winds and mixing. 


The western states upper trough will translate progressively 
eastward across the Central Plains late Monday into early Tuesday. A 
Pacific cold front will be attendant with this upper trough...with 
south winds shifting to north behind it. However 
moisture/instability transport will be marginal and directed 
mainly across southeastern Kansas into Missouri/Arkansas. So we 
expect the better shower/thunderstorm chances to be targeting 
southeast Kansas eastward...late Monday-early Tuesday. Rain 
amounts should be in the 0.10 to 0.40 inch range there...and the 
probability of strong-severe storms appears low. Across 
central/south central Kansas...rain chances appear very slim with any 
amounts only in the hundredths of an inch. 


Jmc 


Long term...(tuesday through friday) 
issued at 232 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


The main energy from the upper trough will lift northeast into the 
Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday. A secondary 
piece of energy will push from the northern intermountain region 
across the Midwest later Wednesday into Thursday...however moisture 
will be very limited with this wave and any light precipitation 
amounts are prognosticated to remain northeast of our forecast area. By the 
end of the week...longwave ridging will build up over the western 
Continental U.S. With longwave troughing over the eastern Continental U.S.. the net effect 
of the above upper pattern features will be drier air with 
temperatures close to average for the last week of October. 


Jmc 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night) 
issued at 1139 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


A weak frontal boundary will sink southward tonight and stall out 
over the area then lift northward during the day on Saturday. 
Could see some areas of fog develop over mainly southeast Kansas 
towards daybreak...as residual low level moisture remains over the 
area with light winds and clear skies. Winds will veer out to a 
southeast direction during the afternoon hours on Saturday. 


Jakub 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 58 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 
Hutchinson 56 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 
Newton 57 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 
Eldorado 58 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 58 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 
Russell 50 84 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 
Great Bend 52 84 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 
Salina 53 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 
McPherson 55 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 
Coffeyville 57 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 
Chanute 57 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 
Iola 57 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 
Parsons-kppf 57 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 



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