Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1136 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015 


..updated for 06z aviation discussion... 


Short term...(this evening through tuesday) 
issued at 220 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015 


Widespread snow returns continue across eastern Kansas early this 
afternoon in area of broad and deep isentropic upglide. Several 
bands of moderate-heavy snowfall persist over southeastern Kansas in 
association with instability and middle-level frontogenesis. The brunt 
of this more intense snowfall is expected to occur through about 00z 
before tapering off in southeast Kansas this evening. 


Another round of wintry precipitation is possible later tonight into 
Sunday morning...as an upper jet streak intensifies from Nebraska 
into Iowa. Confluent flow develops at 700 mb in response to the 
right rear quadrant of this upper jet. This may support a narrow band of 
moderate-heavy snowfall. Based on the NAM-WRF...this band may set up 
in a roughly 50 mile wide corridor from a Hutchinson to Emporia 
line. Since this would be a mesoscale band...the placement could be 
off some this far out. Nevertheless...thinking a quick 1-3 inches 
could occur in that band before it shifts east out of the forecast 
area by midday. Further south...will carry a chance of light snow or 
light freezing drizzle tonight into Sunday am...with cloud ice 
aloft in question. Plans for now are to continue the Winter 
Weather Advisory through 18z Sunday with overall storm totals in the 
3 to 6 inch range in the south...and 1 to 3 inch range in central 
Kansas toward I-70. The precipitation should end Sunday afternoon 
with dry weather for Sunday night. 


Upper level troughing will dig southeastward into the north central 
Continental U.S. From western Canada Monday into Tuesday. Lee troughing will 
occur Monday-Monday night...with increased southerly flow in the 
low-levels allowing moisture return and moderating temperatures 
northward into Kansas. Forecast soundings support a chance of 
drizzle Monday...followed by rain chances Monday night into 
Tuesday morning...ahead of the approaching Arctic front. Weak 
elevated instability creeps up into southeast Kansas later Monday night 
into Tuesday am...and will maintain a chance of thunder there. The 
Arctic front will blast southward through the forecast area during 
the daytime Tuesday...with falling temperatures likely behind the 
frontal passage. Much colder air will once again infiltrate 
southward into the Central Plains Tuesday night...with wind chill 
readings falling to zero to minus 5 in central Kansas late Tuesday 
night/early Wednesday am. With much of the deep moisture getting shunted 
east of the area...there will only be a slight chance of light 
snow Tuesday night behind the front. 


Jmc 


Long term...(wednesday through saturday) 
issued at 220 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015 


Longwave upper troughing from eastern Canada into the north central 
Continental U.S. At the beginning of this extended period...will translate 
eastward by the end of the week. This will support much colder than 
seasonal temperatures for midweek...with moderating temperatures to 
closer to climatology by the end of the week. At this juncture...most if 
not all...of this extended period looks dry. 


Jmc 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night) 
issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015 


IFR or MVFR conditions will prevail across most of central 
and southeast Kansas overnight...improving to VFR by midday 
on Sunday. A period of a light wintry mix is expected early 
Sunday morning as an upper jet streak induces transient lift 
across the area. Snow is primarily expected across central 
Kansas with light snow or freezing drizzle over southern 
Kansas. 


Ked 


&& 


Fire weather... 
issued at 220 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015 


Fire weather concerns will remain very low through Monday with 
widespread snowcover over much of the area and colder than seasonal 
temperatures. 


Jmc 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 19 32 21 37 / 70 70 10 20 
Hutchinson 19 32 20 36 / 70 70 10 20 
Newton 19 32 19 37 / 70 80 10 20 
Eldorado 19 32 21 37 / 70 70 10 20 
Winfield-kwld 20 32 22 38 / 60 60 10 20 
Russell 16 34 18 38 / 50 50 10 20 
Great Bend 18 33 19 37 / 60 70 10 20 
Salina 18 33 20 37 / 60 70 10 20 
McPherson 19 33 19 37 / 70 70 10 20 
Coffeyville 23 33 24 39 / 90 60 10 20 
Chanute 20 32 22 38 / 80 80 10 20 
Iola 20 32 21 39 / 80 80 10 20 
Parsons-kppf 21 33 23 38 / 90 70 10 20 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for ksz032-033- 
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. 


&& 


$$ 






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