Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1133 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 


Short term...(this evening through Sunday night) 
issued at 310 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 


Tonight through friday: 


A strong polar surface high will continue to slide slowly eastward 
across central/eastern Kansas tonight into Friday morning, with the 
high becoming centered over Missouri by late Friday afternoon. With 
mostly clear skies and light/variable winds, this will allow low 
temperatures in the single digits to around 10 degrees. Wind chills 
of zero to 5 below are expected mainly to the northwest of the 
Kansas Turnpike early Friday morning. Despite winds becoming 
southerly on Friday, the proximity of the high center will keep 
temperatures below average for this time of year with highs in the 
upper 20s to middle 30s. 


Saturday through sunday: 


The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian deterministic models were in better 
agreement today, indicating channeled shortwave energy emanating off 
the northeast Pacific, amplifying some as it traverses eastward 
across the Central Plains Sunday into Sunday night. Well ahead of 
this approaching system, Lee cyclogenesis will occur over southeast 
Colorado on Saturday. This will increase the pressure gradient 
across Kansas, with southerly winds increasing with gusts of 30 to 
35 mph. The warm air advection will bring high temperatures back to 
near normal (low-mid 40s). The low will move northeastward across 
Kansas Sunday, reaching northwest Missouri Sunday evening. Low-level 
warm air/moisture advection increases northward into southeastern 
Kansas very late Saturday night into Sunday with dry mid-level air. 
Sounding profiles along with above freezing surface temperatures 
indicate the potential for persistent drizzle (perhaps light rain) in 
the southeast, with considerable cloud cover elsewhere. Strong 
subsidence is progged behind the departing shortwave Sunday night 
which should allow for clearing skies. 


Long term...(monday through thursday) 
issued at 310 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 


The gefs, ECMWF, and Canadian models continue to prog a very strong 
upper low sliding slowly east-southeastward across south-central 
Canada during this period, with a fast, progressive nearly zonal mid- 
upper current across the Continental U.S.. these models are in fairly good 
agreement in depicting an Arctic airmass surging out of southwestern 
Canada into the north-central Continental U.S.. this airmass should arrive in 
Kansas Tuesday then persisting through Thursday, with below to much 
below normal temperatures appearing likely. A period or two of 
flurries or light snow cannot be ruled out once this cold airmass 
arrives. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night) 
issued at 1124 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016 


Main aviation concern will be some mid level ceilings approaching 
from the southwest. 


Surface ridge extends from central ND down through the arklatex 
region. Mid level warm advection has developed some VFR cigs 
several hours ago over the Texas/OK panhandles and is very slowly 
progressing east across SW Kansas. This area of clouds will very 
slowly keep tracking east and will affect areas west of I-135 
around or shortly before sunrise. Confidence is high they will 
stay at VFR levels Fri. Winds will gradually shift to the 
southeast as the surface high pushes into the Mississippi Valley. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 10 32 21 44 / 0 0 0 0 
Hutchinson 7 31 20 44 / 0 0 0 0 
Newton 8 30 19 43 / 0 0 0 0 
Eldorado 8 30 20 43 / 0 0 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 9 33 22 45 / 0 0 0 0 
Russell 6 31 17 42 / 0 0 0 0 
Great Bend 7 33 18 43 / 0 0 0 0 
Salina 6 30 17 43 / 0 0 0 0 
McPherson 6 30 19 43 / 0 0 0 0 
Coffeyville 10 32 21 44 / 0 0 0 0 
Chanute 9 31 19 43 / 0 0 0 0 
Iola 8 30 18 42 / 0 0 0 0 
Parsons-kppf 8 32 20 44 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...jmc 
long term...jmc 
aviation...rbl 



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