Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
600 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016 


..updated for 12z aviation discussion... 


Short term...(today through monday) 
issued at 259 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016 


Main challenge remains chances for very light precipitation Sunday morning. 
Cold/dry surface advection continues early this morning with the 
back edge of middle-level clouds clearing from west to east across the 
area. The spirit of the going forecast is on track with maximums well 
below seasonal climatology today and mainly in the 30s. An upper trough will 
move southeast across the northern plains tonight...with low level 
isentropic lift and moisture advection occurring over central and 
eastern Kansas ahead of the associated surface front. A conditional 
chance for some very light pre-frontal precipitation will be maintained in 
the forecast...dependent on sufficient saturation within the low 
level airmass Sunday morning. If so...precipitation type looks to be mainly 
drizzle or freezing drizzle with surface temperatures near the 
critical freezing mark for a few hours. Frontal timing near dawn 
across central Kansas may also support transient freezing fog if the 
near surface moistens sufficiently along the boundary. Otherwise 
dry and milder weather is expected in the wake of the front over 
most areas by Sunday afternoon. A trailing shortwave upper trough will 
drop southeast across the Central Plains Sunday night which will 
amplify the upper trough over the Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys 
on Monday. A few sprinkles or flurries may occur on Sunday night 
with dry and unseasonably mild weather on Monday. 


Darmofal 


Long term...(tuesday through friday) 
issued at 259 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016 


The main challenge next week remains daily temperature trends 
and how warm to go by Thursday. It still appears at least one more 
shortwave will drop southeast into the mean eastern Continental U.S. Upper trough 
on Tuesday...before broad ridging aloft translates eastward over 
the plains during the middle-week periods. Shallow cooler air could 
at least temporarily affect the area late Tuesday into early 
Wednesday....however by Thursday the European model (ecmwf) and GFS continue to 
support a significantly warmer airmass advecting into central and 
eastern Kansas...with temperatures much above seasonal climatology. 


Ked 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning) 
issued at 535 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016 


Challenging aviation forecast this morning as multiple rounds of 
lowering ceilings are expected. The first is expected across 
central Kansas...primarily at krsl where MVFR ceilings will be 
possible early this morning. Forecast soundings show some 
moistening below 1000ft...however confidence was not high enough 
to include ceilings that low this morning but did include mentions 
of scatter 900-1000ft clouds to hint towards the possibility. This 
afternoon winds will gradually veer from east to south-southeast 
with some locations seeing the potential for gusty winds with an 
increasing pressure gradient and afternoon mixing. This 
evening...a second round of lowering ceilings will occur as 
moisture transport and warm air advection increase...primarily 
across south central and southeast Kansas. Therefore have trended 
things towards the MVFR/IFR Route towards the end of this taf 
period...but will allow subsequent tafs to fine tune the timing. 


Jmr 


&& 


Fire weather... 
issued at 259 am CST Sat Feb 13 2016 


Grassland fire danger is expected to remain low to moderate 
through the weekend. However a warming trend will commence 
next week with unseasonably warm air and gusty surface winds 
elevating the grassland fire danger...with Thursday looking to 
be the biggest day of concern. 


Ked 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 38 31 54 33 / 0 10 10 10 
Hutchinson 37 29 54 32 / 0 10 10 10 
Newton 36 29 52 33 / 0 10 10 10 
Eldorado 37 30 53 33 / 0 20 20 10 
Winfield-kwld 40 33 54 34 / 0 20 20 10 
Russell 37 26 52 31 / 10 10 0 10 
Great Bend 38 27 53 31 / 10 10 0 10 
Salina 36 27 52 32 / 0 10 10 10 
McPherson 37 28 53 32 / 0 10 10 10 
Coffeyville 40 31 50 33 / 0 10 30 10 
Chanute 36 28 49 32 / 0 10 30 10 
Iola 34 27 48 31 / 0 10 30 10 
Parsons-kppf 38 30 50 33 / 0 10 30 10 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 



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