Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
330 am CDT Sat Apr 19 2014 


Short term...(today through monday) 
issued at 330 am CDT Sat Apr 19 2014 


Today: 
windy & warmer weather remains slated for all areas as compressional 
warming occurs ahead of approaching cold front. South winds across 
central & south-central Kansas may flirt with advisory criteria but have 
checked swing as increasing high cloudiness may prevent maximum mixing 
potential from being realized. 


Tonight-monday: 
the afore-mentioned cold front will make slow arduous progress as a 
strong middle-level "kicker" is lacking. As such thunderstorms are still 
not expected to encroach upon central Kansas until late tonight. The front 
may even stall in a NE-SW manner from central Nebraska to the Oklahoma 
Panhandle. As such have limited any mention of thunderstorms to 
Russell...Barton & Lincoln counties. The forecast for Sunday & Sunday 
night is getting a bit challenging as nearly all facets of forecast no 
doubt hinge on east/southeast of the middle-level trough & attendant cold front. The 
slow east/southeast translation of the synoptic pattern dictates lowering probability of precipitation 
across southeast Kansas to slight chances. It appears the weak middle-level 
trough may make sufficient eastward progress to spread thunderstorms 
east across most of Kansas Sunday night as currently forecast. The 
approaching middle-level trough...though weak...may induce enough lift for 
the thunderstorms to produce some small hail and locally heavy rains. 
With the middle-level trough beginning to accelerate late Sunday night the 
bulk of the thunderstorms would be confined to southeast Kansas on Monday. 


Long term...(tuesday through friday) 
issued at 330 am CDT Sat Apr 19 2014 


The middle-upper level pattern becomes highly amplified as a much stronger 
middle-upper trough undergoes cyclogenesis as it approaches the northern 
rockies Tuesday night. This would induce the downstream ridge to sharpen. 
As such all to be quiet across the neighborhood Tuesday & Tuesday night. As the 
intensifying cyclone ventures east over the northern rockies southerly 
lower-deck flow will likewise increase markedly to inject rich moisture 
across Kansas. With a stronger cold front surging southeast across Kansas Wednesday night 
the potential for severe thunderstorms would increase Wednesday & Wednesday night. 
Since there is some disagreement between the GFS & European model (ecmwf) solutions with 
respect to timing have kept chances conservative...for now. The end of 
the work-week should be nice as weak ridging spreads east across the 
Great Plains. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night) 
issued at 1122 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014 


Still expecting VFR conditions to prevail for all taf sites during 
the next 24hrs across central and southern Kansas. Southerly winds 
will increase during the middle-morning hours and remain strong and 
gusty through the afternoon on Saturday...meanwhile high clouds 
will stream in overhead. South winds will decrease by early 
Saturday evening and back to more of a southeast direction. 


Jakub 




&& 


Fire weather... 
issued at 330 am CDT Sat Apr 19 2014 


The increasing southerly winds transporting warmer & drier air over Kansas 
will result in a very high grassland fire danger this afternoon. The 
rangeland fire danger should diminish on Easter Sunday as moisture 
increases. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 80 56 76 58 / 0 0 50 60 
Hutchinson 80 56 75 56 / 0 10 60 60 
Newton 78 56 74 55 / 0 0 50 60 
Eldorado 77 56 75 56 / 0 0 50 60 
Winfield-kwld 78 56 76 56 / 0 0 40 60 
Russell 81 58 74 56 / 10 30 60 50 
Great Bend 79 56 73 54 / 0 20 60 50 
Salina 82 58 77 55 / 0 10 60 60 
McPherson 80 57 75 55 / 0 10 60 60 
Coffeyville 77 54 77 59 / 0 0 30 60 
Chanute 76 55 76 58 / 0 0 30 60 
Iola 76 55 76 58 / 0 0 30 60 
Parsons-kppf 77 55 76 60 / 0 0 30 60 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 














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