Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
324 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014 


Short term...(today through saturday) 
issued at 318 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014 


Today-tonight: a rather vigorous shortwave is currently making 
its way across The Rockies at this time. Latest water vapor 
satellite imagery shows a healthy monsoonal moisture plume from 
the southwest US into Kansas. Expect this moisture transport to 
continue to increase across the western half of the forecast area 
for the daytime hours. The combination of the moisture and 
widespread upward vertical motion will lead to increasing chances 
of showers and thunderstorms as the morning progresses. Latest hi- 
res short term models show the showers becoming more numerous for 
areas west of the Kansas Turnpike...before noon. So expecting a rainy 
afternoon...as showers and thunderstorms become more numerous as 
the day progresses. Would not be surprised if a line of 
thunderstorms develops along the western edge of the forecast area 
this afternoon as the shortwave pushes out into the High 
Plains...with a chance of strong to severe storms...as both the 
NAM/WRF and GFS show a moderately unstable airmass developing 
ahead of this shortwave with SBCAPE values possibly climbing into 
the 2000-2500 j/kg range. Bulk shear around 35-40 kts suggests a 
low end severe chance as well...but only moderate to lapse rates 
will keep it from becoming widespread severe weather. 


Expect the showers and embedded thunderstorms to become widespread 
tonight through Friday morning...just ahead of the main shortwave as it 
pulls east into the plains as copious amounts of low level moisture 
continues to push north across the area. This looks like the time 
when most locations will pick up a nice soaking rain. 


Moisture plume and precipitation water values of 150-180 percent suggest 
some localized heavy rainfall will be possible as 850-700h 
fn-convergence increases with this moisture plume over the area. 
This could lead to a subtle heavy rain event for portions of the 
forecast area...with some localized areas possibly picking up 1 to 2 
inches of rainfall by Friday morning. Even with that said...this looks 
like a great chance for most areas to pick up some healthy 
quantitative precipitation amounts...with three quarters of an inch to one 
inch amounts common across the area outside of the heavier amounts 
mentioned above. 


Friday: will see the main axis of heavier precipitation shift into the 
Flint Hills on Friday...as the shortwave plods across the plains. 
Could still see locations across south central and central Kansas also 
see some showers on Friday...as influence and lift from the main 
shortwave pushes across the area. 


One benefit of the widespread cloud cover and showers will be 
cooler temperatures for end of the week. 


Saturday-Saturday night: both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to show rapid 
progress of this shortwave across the area late Friday night into 
early on Sat. This will lead to a rather nice day on Saturday 
afternoon for most locations as the showers and thunderstorms 
shift to the east of the area. 


The middle level baroclinic zone doesnt push very far south for 
Sat...only into northern OK. GFS shows middle level moisture transport 
increasing rapidly over the top of this baroclinic zone back 
across the western sections of the forecast area for late Sat night 
into early sun. This will lead to a chance of elevated showers and 
thunderstorms developing for most of the forecast area for late 
Sat night into early sun. 


Ketcham 


Long term...(sunday through wednesday) 
issued at 318 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014 


Could see a nice warmup for sun...as zonal flow leads to surface 
winds returning to south. Sunday could actually be quite breezy as 
the next shortwave quickly moves across the northern rockies...with 
a surface trough developing in the High Plains. This will lead to 
more seasonal type temperatures in the low 90s for Sunday afternoon. 


This next shortwave will help push a rather vigorous cold front 
into central Kansas and south across the forecast area for sun evening. 
Latest GFS...and to a little lessor extent the European model (ecmwf)...show the 
Sunday morning showers will 'prime the pump'...as this front 
approaches with a very unstable airmass expected to the south of 
this boundary. Will have to keep an eye on Sunday evening...as bulk 
shear is quite strong of 50-60 kts...which may lead to an outbreak 
of severe storms to develop along this boundary as it pushes south. 
Stay tuned. 


Medium range models show this frontal boundary stalling out over 
southern Kansas or northern OK for Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to a fairly 
active pattern of showers and thunderstorm chances to continue over 
the southern half of Kansas for Monday into Tuesday....as low to middle level 
moisture rides over the top of this boundary. 


Ketcham 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night) 
issued at 1153 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014 


Thunderstorms have stayed north of the taf forecast area...north 
of krsl/ksln this evening. However short-term high res guidance 
indicates that krsl/ksln and khut could see some development 
during the overnight hours and have put thunderstorms in the vicinity and tempo groups at 
those locations to account for it. Think activity will become more 
widespread during the day Thursday and later Thursday 
evening/night. Still maintaining VFR but if storms center 
themselves over a taf site...ceiling and visibilities could be 
degraded to MVFR/IFR. Winds will be southeasterly tonight and 
southerly during the day. 


Billings Wright 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 89 69 86 66 / 40 60 40 30 
Hutchinson 85 67 86 63 / 50 60 40 30 
Newton 88 68 85 64 / 40 60 50 30 
Eldorado 91 69 85 66 / 30 60 50 50 
Winfield-kwld 92 70 87 67 / 30 60 40 40 
Russell 84 65 85 62 / 50 60 30 20 
Great Bend 84 65 86 63 / 50 60 30 20 
Salina 84 68 85 65 / 50 60 50 20 
McPherson 85 67 85 64 / 50 60 40 30 
Coffeyville 95 71 87 68 / 10 40 60 50 
Chanute 93 70 86 67 / 10 40 60 60 
Iola 92 69 85 67 / 10 40 60 60 
Parsons-kppf 94 70 87 67 / 10 40 60 50 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 



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