Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
614 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014 


..updated for 00z aviation discussion... 


Short term...(this evening through sunday) 
issued at 228 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014 


Main concern is return of the heat and potential for a heat 
advisory the next couple of days...followed by slight precipitation 
chances and cooler weather by Saturday night and Sunday. 
Upper ridge axis from New Mexico into western Kansas will 
become elongated across the southern Continental U.S. By Saturday...as 
westerly flow aloft increases across the northern plains in 
response to an upper low moving from the Canadian rockies 
across the southern prairie provinces. A hot south to 
southwest low level flow regime will develop across much of 
Kansas Friday into Saturday...ahead of a cold front which will 
gradually sink south into the area. This boundary should creep 
into portions of central Kansas by Friday night...as an initial 
weak shortwave aloft ripples east across the northern plains. 
Convective chances look slim...though any activity will likely 
influence the movement and potential southern extent of the 
surface front into Saturday. For now most of the forecast area 
is expected to remain along/south of the approaching front 
into Saturday...with maximums around the century mark and heat 
indices near or exceeding heat advisory levels. 


As the Canadian upper low drops southeast across the upper 
Midwest and western Great Lakes into Sunday...the cold front 
will push south across the entire area with somewhat cooler 
and drier air overspreading central and southeast Kansas. 


Darmofal 


Long term...(monday through thursday) 
issued at 228 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014 


A stretch of relatively cooler weather is expected for much 
of next week with temperatures averaging below late July climatology. 
Main challenge is with precipitation chances in the north to northwest 
flow regime aloft. Somewhat better chances across western into 
central Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday with shortwaves topping 
the western ridge and riding southeast across the plains. 


Ked 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening) 
issued at 608 PM CDT Thursday Jul 24 2014 


Pressure gradient and a 50 knot south-southwesterly low-level jet 
should keep boundary layer mixy overnight west of I-135. Gusts 
around 25 knots appear likely there...while southeast Kansas will be decoupled. 
Deep mixed layer (surface-700 mb) on Friday expected across most 
of the forecast area...which will keep southwesterly winds gusting 
to 30 knots in central/south central Kansas for much of the day. A few 
middle-high level clouds are expected during the forecast 
period...but otherwise VFR will prevail. 


Jmc 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 10 10 
Hutchinson 75 102 75 102 / 0 10 10 20 
Newton 75 101 76 101 / 0 10 10 20 
Eldorado 73 99 74 100 / 0 10 10 10 
Winfield-kwld 74 100 75 101 / 0 0 10 10 
Russell 75 103 73 100 / 0 10 10 20 
Great Bend 76 103 74 101 / 0 10 10 20 
Salina 75 105 75 102 / 0 10 10 20 
McPherson 75 102 75 102 / 0 10 10 20 
Coffeyville 72 97 74 99 / 0 0 10 10 
Chanute 69 97 73 99 / 0 0 10 10 
Iola 69 97 73 99 / 0 10 10 10 
Parsons-kppf 70 97 74 99 / 0 0 10 10 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
heat advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ksz032-033- 
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. 


&& 


$$ 



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