Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1237 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014 


..updated for 18z aviation discussion... 


Update... 
issued at 1036 am CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014 


Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms have been fairly 
persistent this morning...extending from roughly central Kansas...into 
north-central and northeast Kansas...northeastward into eastern NE. 
They are being sustained by modest/strong 800-600mb moisture 
transport within a zone of rich middle-level moisture...ahead of 
shortwave energy over the High Plains giving a glancing blow as it 
progresses to the northeast. Thinking this activity should 
gradually diminish by early to perhaps middle-afternoon as it 
progresses northeast. Rainfall amounts will remain generally less 
than one-quarter inch. 


By late this afternoon and evening...there is a chance for a few 
isolated surface-based thunderstorms to develop across central 
/south-central Kansas...in a zone of weak/modest convergence along 
a diffuse dryline. Marginal instability...weak convergence and 
lack up upper support should preclude widespread severe 
activity...although strength of deep layer shear would support a 
few strong storms. 


Adk 


&& 


Short term...(today through thursday) 
issued at 233 am CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014 


Current water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level wave 
moving northeast across Nebraska...with a line of showers and 
storms ahead of the wave moving eastward. Expecting some scattered 
showers/storms to affect central Kansas this morning and it could 
linger into the afternoon hours...with weak isentropic lift in the 
310-315k layer persisting through the day. Meanwhile...a second 
upper level wave currently over Oregon will race southeast across 
The Rockies today and reach western Kansas by this evening. This 
next wave could spark off re-newed thunderstorm development along 
the dryline over western Kansas later this afternoon if enough 
low-level convergence can materialize. Moisture transport will 
increase ahead of this second wave which should generate more 
elevated showers/storms for central/south central Kansas tonight. 
Not expecting severe weather tonight but could see a few strong 
storms. 


A third upper level wave will move across The Rockies on 
Wednesday and deepen the upper trough axis...which will then sweep 
eastward across the Central Plains for Wednesday night and 
Thursday. Once again could see some lingering showers and storms 
during the day...but the focus will switch to the afternoon where 
instability should be higher due to Richer Gulf moisture moving 
into the region. The key will be if we can see some breaks in the 
clouds to help boost instability even more. Storms should fire 
where low-level convergence will be maximized along the warm front 
boundary over central Kansas...could also see a few storms develop 
along the dryline but convergence is not as pronounced. Once 
storms develop given the expected environmental shear/instability 
severe thunderstorms will be possible. The storms should increase 
in coverage for Wednesday night as the upper wave approaches the 
area. The activity will linger into Thursday as the cold front 
sweeps eastward across Kansas. There could be a chance for more 
strong/severe over southeast Kansas Thursday afternoon depending 
on the timing of the cold front clearing the area. 


Long term...(friday through monday) 
issued at 233 am CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014 


The upper level trough axis will slide eastward towards the East 
Coast with a northwest flow regime setting up over Central Plains 
this period. This will bring drier cooler air into Kansas for 
Friday with a gradual warming trend for the weekend into Monday. 


Jakub 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon) 
issued at 1236 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014 


For ict-hut-sln-rsl-cnu...showers should exit north/northeast of 
sln by 19-20z or so. Otherwise...dense middle-level cloudiness will 
gradually scattered out. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are 
possible by this evening over central/south-central Kansas. Not 
anticipating widespread coverage...although enough to include thunderstorms in the vicinity 
in all tafs except cnu by 00-03z. Activity may tend to increase 
in coverage some during the evening/overnight as low-level jet 
increases. Not anticipating severe storms. 


Adk 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 85 65 87 64 / 20 50 30 50 
Hutchinson 82 64 86 61 / 40 50 30 50 
Newton 83 65 84 62 / 30 60 40 50 
Eldorado 84 65 86 63 / 20 50 50 60 
Winfield-kwld 87 66 86 65 / 20 40 50 50 
Russell 79 59 80 55 / 60 40 30 50 
Great Bend 80 60 80 56 / 60 40 30 40 
Salina 80 63 84 60 / 60 50 40 60 
McPherson 81 64 84 61 / 50 60 40 50 
Coffeyville 86 65 86 67 / 10 40 50 60 
Chanute 85 64 85 66 / 10 50 60 60 
Iola 85 64 85 66 / 10 50 60 60 
Parsons-kppf 86 65 86 66 / 10 40 50 60 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 



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