Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1133 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015 


..updated for 18z aviation discussion... 


Short term...(today through thursday) 
issued at 318 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015 


Today-tonight: 
focus is on approaching front and precipitation chances. Decent 
convergence ramps up between 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC with scattered 
storms likely this evening. Front should exit southeast Kansas just 
after daybreak Wednesday. Will look a bit closer at severe potential for 
hazardous weather outlook...but at least upper end strong storms 
should be possible. There is also the issue of the existing heat 
advisory. Given stiff winds this afternoon...and mixing at least 
as good as yesterday...widespread 105 heat indices appears unlikely. 
However will keep advisory going for consistency. 


Wednesday-Thu: 
while front will likely remain south of the area throughout this 
period...there is a good potential for either elevated storms to 
develop as low level moisture overruns the shallow cooler air...or 
even more likely...storms develop in upslope flow and move into 
the area during the night. Either scenario favors higher 
precipitation chances in the western half of the forecast area. 
Highs will drop into the 80s for most locations both days. -Howerton 


Long term...(friday through monday) 
issued at 318 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015 


No significant changes to initialization grids. Gradual warmup is 
anticipated. Lack of low level focus and weak flow aloft will 
limit precipitation chances this period. GFS does attempt to push 
another on Monday...but European model (ecmwf) keeps it in Nebraska. Outcome will 
likely depend on extent of convection across High Plains. -Howerton 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon) 
issued at 1127 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015 


Cold front stretching from eastern Nebraska to northwest Kansas at 
midday...is prognosticated to reach central/southwest Kansas by early 
evening. The front will then push into far northern Oklahoma 
during Wednesday. Low-level convergence and strong insolation 
along the front should eventually allow...convective updrafts to 
deepen and penetrate the very warm air aloft toward evening. 
Isolated to widely scattered storms should affect central/south 
central Kansas this evening...before weakening late tonight. 
Strong/variable wind gusts and brief downpours with reductions in 
visibility are the main threats with these storms. Winds will 
shift to northerly behind the front. 


Jmc 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 100 72 88 68 / 10 40 30 40 
Hutchinson 101 70 86 66 / 30 60 30 40 
Newton 100 70 87 66 / 20 40 30 40 
Eldorado 99 70 88 66 / 10 30 30 30 
Winfield-kwld 98 73 92 68 / 10 20 20 30 
Russell 94 65 84 64 / 20 30 20 30 
Great Bend 95 67 83 65 / 30 40 20 40 
Salina 100 68 85 66 / 40 50 20 30 
McPherson 100 69 85 66 / 40 60 30 40 
Coffeyville 96 74 93 68 / 0 10 10 10 
Chanute 96 72 89 66 / 0 20 20 10 
Iola 96 72 88 66 / 0 20 20 10 
Parsons-kppf 95 74 91 67 / 0 10 20 10 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ksz049-051>053- 
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. 


&& 


$$ 






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