Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
536 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015 


..updated for 12z aviation discussion... 


Short term...(today through sunday) 
issued at 327 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015 


Main forecast challenge is precipitation amounts and type tonight 
through early Sunday morning. Satellite water vapor loop 
showed a fairly impressive fetch of subtropical moisture 
with an eastern Pacific upper trough which will impact the 
area this weekend. Low level moisture flux will lag the 
middle and high level moisture plume...though fairly decent 
isentropic lift should result in scattered light precipitation 
development over central Kansas by later this evening. 
Persistent isentropic lift through a deeper layer later 
tonight into Saturday and increasing low level moisture 
will result in more numerous to perhaps widespread precipitation 
at times across the area. While some mixed phase precipitation/snow 
is possible at onset tonight over central Kansas...model 
trends in the soundings continue to support mainly a chilly 
light to moderate rainfall event for most of the area on 
Saturday. A northern stream upper trough will drop southeast 
across the northern plains and Midwest Saturday night into 
Sunday...driving a strong polar front south across the area. 
A changeover to snow is expected across portions of central 
and far eastern Kansas before the better moisture and lift 
is shunted east of the area by midday Sunday. While a period 
of snow is expected...it still appears residence time and 
rates will only support an inch or less of accumulation... 
mainly to the north and northeast of greater Wichita. Brisk 
and occasionally strong north winds and much colder air will 
follow for much of Sunday with falling temperatures into the 
afternoon. 


Darmofal 


Long term...(monday through thursday) 
issued at 327 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015 


Little change to outer periods will be made with this 
forecast cycle. Some moderation in temperature is expected 
by Tuesday...before another shot of cold air overspreads 
the area by mid-week. Except for Tuesday...temperatures 
look to average a bit below seasonal climatology next week with 
chances for measurable precipitation low at this time. 


Ked 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning) 
issued at 534 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015 


A storm system approaching from the southwest will cause ceilings 
to lower as we move through the evening and tonight with light 
rain developing during the evening hours. Some of this light rain 
may mix with snow...especially across portions of central Kansas 
where temperatures will approach freezing. Further south and 
east...light rain showers and areas of MVFR ceilings are anticipated 
by late evening and persisting through the overnight hours. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 48 34 42 32 / 0 70 80 80 
Hutchinson 47 33 41 29 / 10 70 80 80 
Newton 47 32 41 30 / 0 70 80 80 
Eldorado 47 33 41 31 / 0 60 80 80 
Winfield-kwld 48 35 43 33 / 0 60 80 80 
Russell 47 32 40 26 / 10 70 60 70 
Great Bend 47 32 40 27 / 10 70 70 70 
Salina 48 33 40 28 / 0 70 80 80 
McPherson 47 32 41 28 / 10 70 80 80 
Coffeyville 48 34 44 34 / 0 30 80 80 
Chanute 46 32 43 32 / 0 40 80 80 
Iola 45 32 42 31 / 0 50 80 80 
Parsons-kppf 48 33 43 33 / 0 40 80 80 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 






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