Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
601 am CDT Wednesday may 4 2016 


Synopsis... 
issued at 242 am CDT Wednesday may 4 2016 


Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy diving over the western 
Great Lakes region with another impulse stretching from the 
Tennessee Valley into the arklatex region. At the surface...low 
pressure is centered over the Great Lakes region with a cold front 
stretching from the northern Mississippi Valley into the northern 
High Plains. 


&& 


Short term...(today through Friday night) 
issued at 242 am CDT Wednesday may 4 2016 


North/northwest upper flow is expected to remain over the plains through 
Thursday as the area remains stuck between a deep trough on both 
coasts. Upper ridge will start to break down Friday as the deep 
closed low approaches the southern rockies. This pattern will 
promote a warming trend with 850mb temperatures supporting middle and upper 
80s by Friday. Also shouldn't see much in the way of clouds through 
Friday. 


Long term...(saturday through tuesday) 
issued at 242 am CDT Wednesday may 4 2016 


This time frame is starting to look active as the slow moving 
upper low finally migrates out into the plains. 


By Sat afternoon...there is good model agreement that the upper 
low will be centered over the central Great Basin with some of the 
energy starting to lift out across the High Plains of eastern Colorado. 
Any surfaced based convection on Sat should be well west of the 
forecast area...closer to the upper dynamics and loose dryline. 
Will introduce storm chances Sat night as some of the better 850-700mb 
moisture works east...which should generate some elevated 
convection. Will keep the modest storm chances in for sun through 
Monday as the dryline sets up across the western flank of the 
forecast area. There are some significant differences that show up 
between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) by Monday...with the European model (ecmwf) more 
progressive in lifting this feature northeast. The main question 
for convection sun into Monday will be if there will be enough 
convergence on the dryline to get storms to develop in our 
forecast area. If storms develop...there should be enough 
instability and shear to get supercells. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning) 
issued at 559 am CDT Wednesday may 4 2016 


VFR conditions will prevail across central and southern Kansas for 
the next 24hrs...as surface high pressure builds into the region 
with clear skies. Northerly winds will increase for late this 
morning and afternoon. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 75 47 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 
Hutchinson 75 45 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 
Newton 74 47 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 
Eldorado 74 46 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 76 46 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 
Russell 75 46 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 
Great Bend 76 47 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 
Salina 75 45 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 
McPherson 75 45 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 
Coffeyville 75 45 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 
Chanute 73 44 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 
Iola 72 44 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 
Parsons-kppf 74 45 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...rbl 
long term...rbl 
aviation...cdj 



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