Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
327 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014 


Short term...(today through thursday) 
issued at 324 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014 


Below normal temperatures will continue through the middle of the 
week...as the Great Lakes upper level trough remains in place with 
a large ridge over The Rockies. This will lead to cooler air 
continuing to drop south out of southern Canada for the foreseeable 
future. 


Expecting shower and embedded thunderstorms to develop over 
southwestern Kansas later today...as monsoonal flow over the SW US 
begins to push further east into the Southern Plains. Expecting this 
area of showers to gradually spread eastward into central and south 
central Kansas very late this afternoon or early this evening as 
moisture transport and middle level lift begins to increase. 


Expect this area of showers and embedded storms to increase in 
coverage for late this evening through Wednesday morning...as 
850-700h moisture transport/isentropic lift increases. Where the 
heaviest band of showers will setup...will be more of a mesoscale 
detail...but heaviest axis of quantitative precipitation forecast will probably be from kddc southeast 
towards koun....where best 850-700h fn-convergence will be 
oriented. Elevated instability looks limited as this moisture 
increases...so thinking more of a showery precipitation with rumbles of 
thunder tonight into Wednesday. 


In our forecast area...expecting the heaviest quantitative precipitation forecast amounts for areas 
SW of kict...with some areas over Harper and Sumner counties seeing 
some rather healthy quantitative precipitation forecast amounts by Wednesday morning. Could see some 
pockets of heavier rain...but expecting more of a sustained rainfall 
for the overnight hours...which could lead to some areas over south 
central Kansas...picking 1 to 2 inches by Wednesday afternoon. Will see lessor 
quantitative precipitation forecast amounts the further northeast you go....but most areas will see 
some rainfall by Wednesday afternoon. 


Do not foresee any flooding issues with this rainfall event...as 
most of the flash flood guidance across south central Kansas is almost 4 
inches in a 3 hour period. But certainly a good soaking. 


The precipitation area will taper off from north to south over south 
central Kansas for Wednesday afternoon/night...as best moisture 
transport shifts south/southeast of the forecast area...which will 
push most of the precipitation activity into Oklahoma by Wednesday night. 


Surface high pressure will be over the area on Thursday with 
very pleasant weather expected...light winds and below normal 
temperatures. 


Ketcham 


Long term...(friday through monday) 
issued at 324 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014 


The main story heading into the weekend will be the continuation of 
slightly below normal temperatures for Kansas as the upper level 
ridge axis stays positioned over The Rockies...with northerly/ 
easterly winds at the surface keeping modified cooler air in place. 


There is a small chance of diurnal precipitation activity for 
Saturday given the cool temperatures aloft and a weakly capped atmosphere 
in place...otherwise dry weather will prevail. 


Ketcham 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night) 
issued at 1147 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014 


VFR conditions through the forecast. Easterly winds will become 
southeasterly during the day Tuesday. Middle-high clouds will 
increase through the night and during the day with Lower Middle-level 
clouds moving in towards the late afternoon/evening. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms will be possible...mainly after 00z 
Wednesday and have included thunderstorms in the vicinity for that possibility in the 
forecast. Generally precipitation will move from west to east. 


Billings Wright 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 84 65 72 64 / 10 60 70 30 
Hutchinson 85 64 73 63 / 20 60 70 20 
Newton 84 63 75 63 / 20 50 60 20 
Eldorado 85 63 74 63 / 20 50 60 20 
Winfield-kwld 84 64 71 65 / 10 60 80 30 
Russell 84 63 76 63 / 20 60 60 10 
Great Bend 83 62 72 62 / 20 80 80 10 
Salina 86 64 79 64 / 30 40 50 10 
McPherson 85 63 75 63 / 20 50 60 10 
Coffeyville 86 63 76 65 / 10 40 50 30 
Chanute 84 63 78 64 / 10 30 40 20 
Iola 84 62 78 64 / 20 30 40 20 
Parsons-kppf 85 62 77 64 / 10 40 50 30 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 














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