Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
654 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015 


..updated for 12z aviation discussion... 


Short term...(today through monday) 
issued at 220 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015 


Low pressure system over northeast Kansas early this 
morning...will push east across the middle Mississippi Valley today. 
Any lingering showers/thunder should exit our far northeastern 
counties early this morning. In the wake of this departing 
system...a cold front will drop southward into central/eastern Kansas 
this PM/eve. Modest low-level moisture/instability pooling in the 
vicinity of the front underneath cold temperatures aloft...may 
allow for a stray thunderstorm or two during peak heating...then 
waning early in the evening. Expect most places to remain dry 
however...and subsidence behind the departing system may inhibit 
deep convection from developing altogether. 


The next storm system will dig into the southwestern states over 
the weekend...supported by a strong upper jet streak on its 
backside. Cooler air will filter southward into the region tonight 
into Sunday via brisk northeasterly winds. Stratus via upslope 
moistening...is likely to develop across especially central/south 
central Kansas late tonight into Sunday morning. The upper low 
will push from the southern rockies into the Southern Plains 
Sunday night through Monday night...while opening up and weakening 
slightly. Middle-level deformation/forcing on the north side of the 
upper low...will support a chance of showers mainly over south 
central Kansas from Sunday night through Monday night. Very 
marginal elevated instability could support a few lightning 
strikes close to the Oklahoma border. Total rain amounts of 0.20 
to 0.50 inch appear reasonable in our southwest counties...and 
will taper rain chances to none over central/east-central Kansas. Cloud 
cover and possible rain...associated with this low pressure 
system...should keep highs below climatology in the upper 50s-middle 60s 
Sunday-Monday. 


Jmc 


Long term...(tuesday through friday) 
issued at 220 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015 


The upper low is projected to shift east out of the Southern 
Plains Tuesday...in response to shortwave troughing digging 
southeastward out of Canada into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. As 
the upper troughing continues to push through the eastern Continental U.S. 
Middle-late week...upper ridging in the west will spread over the 
south Central Plains. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS ensemble means are in 
decent agreement with this scenario...which will effectively shunt 
the Richer Gulf moisture well south in the Gulf of Mexico. 
Therefore...expecting dry weather middle-late week with temperatures 
moderating to slightly above climatological averages by late week. 


Jmc 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning) 
issued at 654 am CDT Sat Apr 25 2015 


For ict-hut-sln-rsl-cnu...diurnal heating in concert with 
relatively moist low-levels will result in high MVFR to low VFR 
scattered-broken ceilings developing across the area by middle-late 
morning...probably most widespread for sln-rsl. Cannot completely 
rule out a stray shower/thunderstorm this afternoon across the 
region...as a cool front approaches from the north amidst 
marginal instability...but shortwave ridging aloft and weak 
convergence should keep any activity quite isolated. Breezy/gusty 
northeast winds are anticipated in wake of the cool front by this 
evening...with cold advection and moist upslope flow resulting in 
MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings later this evening and tonight for 
all sites. 


Adk 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 79 51 65 48 / 10 10 10 40 
Hutchinson 76 49 63 45 / 10 10 10 30 
Newton 75 48 62 45 / 10 10 10 30 
Eldorado 78 50 65 47 / 10 10 10 30 
Winfield-kwld 81 50 66 49 / 10 10 10 40 
Russell 73 46 58 43 / 20 10 10 20 
Great Bend 75 47 59 44 / 10 10 10 30 
Salina 72 46 61 43 / 20 10 10 10 
McPherson 74 47 62 44 / 20 10 10 20 
Coffeyville 82 50 67 49 / 10 10 10 30 
Chanute 77 49 65 47 / 20 10 10 10 
Iola 75 48 64 46 / 20 10 10 10 
Parsons-kppf 79 50 67 48 / 10 10 10 20 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 






National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations
Back to forecast page
Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)

Units: English | Metric

Find the Weather for any City, State or Zipcode, or Country:

U.S. State List | Severe Weather | Tropical Storms | Ski Conditions
United States | Canada | Central America | South America | Asia | Europe | Australia | Africa | Islands

Weather Underground Copyright© 2015
Weather Underground, Inc.

Questions or Comments? Contact Us