Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
556 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014 


..updated for 00z aviation discussion... 


Short term...(this evening through tuesday) 
issued at 326 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014 


Persistent moist southerly flow coupled with diurnal cooling 
should result in widespread clouds and patchy fog once again 
tonight. Best chance for more widespread dense fog will be 
generally west of Hutchinson-Salina...where low-level inversion 
should be strongest...although patchy intermittent dense fog 
cannot be ruled out elsewhere across the region overnight due to 
areas of stratus build-down. Deeper moisture building in from the 
south may allow for areas of drizzle by Sunday morning...possibly 
persisting through much of the day...generally east of Hutchinson- 
Salina. Widespread clouds should keep temperatures in the 40s 
Sunday. Shortwave energy approaching from the northwest may allow 
for a few showers Sunday night...with chances increasing over far 
southern and southeast Kansas Monday...as zone of stronger middle-level 
frontogenesis materializes and sweeps southeast. Mostly light 
amounts are expected...although far southeast Kansas could pick up 
around one-tenth of an inch late Monday-Monday night. Despite the 
clouds...Monday highs should warm to at least the upper 40s to low 
50s. A deepening longwave trough over the central Continental U.S. Will allow 
a strong cold front to sweep south across the region Monday night- 
Tuesday. Strong northwest winds and Tuesday highs in the 30s to 
low 40s are expected. 


Adk 


Long term...(wednesday through saturday) 
issued at 326 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014 


GFS is slower and more amplified than the European model (ecmwf) with 
central/eastern Continental U.S. Middle-week trough...which would result in 
colder Wednesday temperatures than European model (ecmwf). Ensembles support both 
solutions...so for now will split the difference. Rapid warm-up 
into the 40s and 50s expected for Thursday...as another shortwave 
approaches from the northwest and southerly flow increases. 
Thereafter...another strong cold front moves southeast across the 
region...resulting in blustery and chilly conditions by late 
Thursday night/Friday. Cannot rule out areas of light rain/snow 
Thursday night/early Friday...but precipitation should remain 
light due to meager forcing and moisture. Near to below normal 
temperatures should continue into the weekend. 


Adk 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening) 
issued at 548 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014 


Main aviation concerns will be low clouds and fog. 


South winds will remain in place across the forecast area as upper 
energy approaches from the west. MVFR clouds have been on the 
increase over south central Kansas the last few hours and am expecting 
this area of MVFR ceilings to continue to expand east tonight. While 
confidence in some fog is high tonight...especially in the 2-4sm 
range...confidence in dense fog is not that high. At this point 
feel the best shot at less than 2sm will be west of I-135. Should 
start to see some IFR ceilings after 10z as moisture continues to 
slowly advect into the region. Would expect the low clouds to 
persist into at least the early afternoon hours for locations 
along and east of I-135. 


Lawson 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 37 46 41 52 / 10 10 10 20 
Hutchinson 35 46 40 51 / 10 10 20 10 
Newton 36 45 41 51 / 10 10 20 20 
Eldorado 36 46 41 51 / 10 10 20 20 
Winfield-kwld 37 47 42 51 / 10 10 10 20 
Russell 32 46 36 51 / 0 0 20 10 
Great Bend 32 46 36 51 / 10 10 20 10 
Salina 35 46 39 52 / 10 10 20 20 
McPherson 35 45 39 51 / 10 10 20 20 
Coffeyville 37 49 43 53 / 10 10 10 40 
Chanute 35 47 42 52 / 10 10 20 40 
Iola 35 47 42 51 / 10 10 20 40 
Parsons-kppf 36 48 42 52 / 10 10 20 40 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 






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