Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
636 PM CDT Sat may 28 2016 


Synopsis... 
issued at 253 PM CDT Sat may 28 2016 


Water vapor imagery shows upper-level energy lifting into the 
upper Mississippi River valley this afternoon. With a remnant 
pocket of cooler air aloft lingering across portions of the region, 
diurnally driven cumulus developed this afternoon with ample 
insolation. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night) 
issued at 253 PM CDT Sat may 28 2016 


The main forecast concerns are thunderstorm chances through the 
first part of the work week and the arrival of a cold front on 
Tuesday. Confidence is not particularly high in regards to how warm 
temperatures will get over the next few days given the potential 
for cloudy conditions and precipitation chances across much of 
the area. 


With the remnants of the diffuse surface boundary, that pushed 
across central and southeast Kansas earlier this morning, draped 
across central Oklahoma up into southwest Missouri thunderstorm 
chances have been removed this evening across far southeast 
Kansas. The diurnal cumulus that has developed this afternoon will 
diminish once we lose daytime heating with a pleasant evening in 
store. Sunday morning expect cloud cover to be on the increase as 
low level moisture begins to return northward. Towards daybreak 
models are consistent with 850 mb moisture transport edging northward 
across south central and central Kansas. Lapse rates do not look 
terribly impressive; however, with a pocket of steep lapse rates 
in the mid levels will continue to include mentions of 
thunderstorms beginning in the morning hours. Confidence is 
highest towards the afternoon and evening hours for thunderstorm 
chances as a subtle shortwave is progged to eject out of the 
southern rockies. 


For Monday, there are some discrepancies amongst the models in 
regards to the axis of moisture transport. Therefore, confidence 
is not particularly high in the overall converge of thunderstorm 
activity. Given this uncertainty, have opted to maintain at least 
chance pops for thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity that can 
develop along and west of I-135 may see the potential to become 
strong to severe. With a weakly capped and modestly unstable 
atmosphere overhead, even if storms cannot become surface based a 
few elevated storms will have enough shear and instability to work 
with. East of the I-135 corridor the instability drops off fairly 
dramatically; therefore, the potential for strong to severe storms 
is far less pronounced in those areas. By Tuesday morning as the 
aforementioned cold front approaches central Kansas expect 
thunderstorms become more widespread across central Kansas. As the 
frontal boundary slowly drops southeast during the day on Tuesday 
thunderstorm activity will increase across the area. The speed of 
the cold front is not terribly impressive with the upper-level 
energy lifting across the northern plains. Therefore, with saturated 
soils already in place additional rainfall may exacerbate any 
lingering and/or recent flooding. 


Long term...(wednesday through saturday) 
issued at 253 PM CDT Sat may 28 2016 


By Wednesday morning/afternoon the frontal boundary will push across 
south central and southeast kansas; however, there will still be 
the potential to see lingering thunderstorm activity during the 
morning and afternoon hours. By Wednesday night into Thursday 
morning as a stable Post frontal airmass settles into the region 
things will begin to dry out for the end of the work week. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening) 
issued at 633 PM CDT Sat may 28 2016 


VFR conditions will prevail through the night time hours. 
Meanwhile mid-level clouds and scattered rain showers will be 
possible across far southern Kansas early Sunday morning. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 61 83 63 79 / 10 30 30 40 
Hutchinson 60 82 62 78 / 10 30 30 30 
Newton 60 83 62 78 / 10 30 30 30 
Eldorado 61 83 62 79 / 10 30 30 40 
Winfield-kwld 62 83 63 80 / 10 40 30 40 
Russell 57 81 60 80 / 10 30 30 40 
Great Bend 58 80 60 80 / 10 30 30 40 
Salina 58 83 62 80 / 10 30 30 30 
McPherson 58 82 62 78 / 10 30 30 30 
Coffeyville 63 85 64 80 / 10 30 20 40 
Chanute 62 85 64 81 / 10 30 20 40 
Iola 62 85 63 81 / 10 30 20 40 
Parsons-kppf 63 85 63 80 / 10 30 20 40 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...jmr 
short term...jmr 
long term...jmr 
aviation...cdj 






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