Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1241 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014 


..updated for 18z aviation discussion... 


Synopsis... 
issued at 320 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014 


Currently have two shortwaves affecting the Continental U.S.. one over the 
northeast and another approaching the central/northern rockies. At 
the surface...Lee troughing continues to strengthen with high 
pressure extending from the western Great Lakes down through the 
lower Mississippi Valley. 


&& 


Short term...(today through friday) 
issued at 320 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014 


Theta-E advection in the 850-700mb layer has resulted in some isolated- 
scattered showers/storms over mainly central Kansas. This activity is 
expected to linger this morning and may expand further south 
around/after sunrise. Limited elevated instability will limit this 
activity to just some showers and isolated storms. 


Wind Advisory still looks like a good bet this afternoon and will 
leave the area as is. Upgraded most of the Fire Weather Watch to a 
warning. Please see fire weather section for more details. 


As the shortwave approaches moisture will quickly work north with 
a dryline expected to setup over western Kansas by late this 
afternoon. Storms are expected to develop late this afternoon 
along the dryline and also along the cold front over south central 
Nebraska. After sunset the areal coverage will increase as the 
better upper dynamics start to lift out with much of the area in 
the right entrance region of an upper jet where plenty of 
diffluence will be in place. The most likely storm Mode for most 
of the forecast area will be to line up along the Pacific cold 
front as it surges southeast. This storm Mode will limit the 
tornado potential with hail and winds being the main threats. Areas 
along and west of I-135 will have the best shot at severe storms 
due to limited instability further east. With the exception of a 
few counties in central Kansas...the majority of the storms will 
affect the area after dark. 


Line of storms will be exiting the forecast area Thursday morning with 
mainly areas southeast of the Kansas Turnpike having a shot at storms 
prior to 15z Thursday. By the afternoon hours sunny skies will be in 
place. Not expecting any cool down behind the weak front with 
above normal temperatures expected for both Thursday and especially Friday. 


Long term...(friday night through tuesday) 
issued at 320 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014 


These extended periods continue to look active with one or more 
severe weather episodes likely. 


Scattered storms will be possible over southeast Kansas Friday night as moisture in 
the 850-700mb layer surges quickly north. At a minimum at least 
some strong storms would be possible. 


GFS and European model (ecmwf) continue to be in good agreement regarding the deep 
upper trough to affect the area for the weekend. By Sat morning 
this feature will be over the Desert Southwest and approaching the 
southern rockies by Sat evening. Both models have slowed the 
progression of this feature compared to last night's runs which is 
an expected trend with these deep digging systems. Low level 
moisture will quickly surge north Sat with a dryline setting up 
just west of the forecast area by late Sat afternoon. The GFS 
does have the warm front through at least the northern half of the 
forecast area with the European model (ecmwf) lifting it well north of the forecast 
area. This dryline is then expected to retreat west Sat evening. 
The main question for Sat will be how much storm coverage can we 
get on the dryline or warm front with the large scale lift and middle 
level cooling well west of the area. However...storms that do 
develop will quickly become high end severe and with the dryline 
retreating...will have plenty of juice and an increasing low level 
jet to work with. At this point the best severe chances Sat 
afternoon/evening look to be along and west of I-135. 


The main upper shortwave is expected to lift out across the plains 
on sun which will surge the dryline east. By 18z sun the dryline 
should be along or just east of I-135. At this point feel fairly 
confident that storm coverage will be higher on Sun 
afternoon/evening due the upper dynamics kicking out along with 
less capping due to cooling middle level temperatures. However...deep shear 
vectors will be more parallel to the boundary which should result 
in more line segments and less discrete supercells. On sun...areas 
east of I-135 will have the best shot at severe storms. 


Monday and Tuesday look cold and damp as the upper trough starts to close 
off as it moves very slowly to the east. This will keep the 
forecast area in the wrap around region of this system as well 
below normal temperatures spill south. 


Lawson 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon) 
issued at 1236 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014 


Main issue will be thunderstorm chances this evening and 
overnight. Frontal boundary will move to the southeast this 
evening and overnight bringing about a decent chance for 
thunderstorms at all taf sites except kcnu. We are going to 
continue strong winds from a southerly direction ahead of the 
front with some gusts approaching 40 miles per hour in north central Kansas. 
Storms will develop out to the west and then as the sun sets...we 
should expect the storms evolve into a linear mesoscale convective 
complex with straight line winds being the main threat. This 
should move into krsl and khut by 03z to 04z and then progress 
east hitting ksln and kict around 06z give or take an hour. It 
will be hit or miss at kcnu. With frontal passage storms you can 
expect the ceilings to dip below VFR levels before lifting during 
the middle morning. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
issued at 320 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014 


Fire danger will be elevated over the next few days. 


Very strong south winds will elevated the grassland fire danger 
this afternoon into the very high category with extreme fire 
danger anticipated for areas west of I-135. Rh's across the area 
this afternoon will be in the upper 30s to around 40%. Sustained 
wind speeds will be in the 30-35 miles per hour range with gusts around 45 
miles per hour...especially along and west of I-135. 


Gusty northwest winds will bring very high fire danger on Thursday 
afternoon over mainly central Kansas. Winds will again flip around to 
the south for Friday and will increase...producing very high fire 
danger across most of the forecast area. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 82 55 75 49 / 20 70 20 0 
Hutchinson 83 52 74 47 / 40 90 10 0 
Newton 82 53 73 49 / 50 80 20 0 
Eldorado 82 56 74 49 / 20 60 20 0 
Winfield-kwld 84 57 76 49 / 20 50 20 0 
Russell 84 48 73 45 / 40 90 10 0 
Great Bend 84 50 73 45 / 30 90 10 0 
Salina 82 51 74 47 / 50 90 10 0 
McPherson 82 52 74 47 / 50 90 10 0 
Coffeyville 82 60 72 47 / 10 40 50 0 
Chanute 81 59 72 46 / 10 50 60 0 
Iola 80 60 73 46 / 10 60 60 0 
Parsons-kppf 82 60 72 47 / 10 50 60 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ksz032-033-047>052- 
067-068-082-083-091-092. 


Red flag warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ksz032-033-047- 
048-050-067. 


&& 


$$ 



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