Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1206 PM CDT sun Jun 26 2016 


Synopsis... 
issued at 340 am CDT sun Jun 26 2016 


Cold front that had been fairly well-defined by prognostics the 
past 3 nights had become very diffuse during the night, due in no 
small part by the numerous showers & thunderstorms that had been 
occurring from wrn Kansas to extreme southeast Nebraska & SW Iowa. Coverage & 
intensity have diminished since about 1 am, although a cluster of 
thunderstorms have visited SC Kansas since around mid-night but they, 
too, have diminished. It remains quite warm & humid as temperatures 
are ranging from the upper 70s in ern Kansas to around 70 along the wrn 
corridor of the County Warning Area. 


&& 


Short term...(today through Tuesday night) 
issued at 340 am CDT sun Jun 26 2016 


Today & tonight: 
with a very warm & moisture-laden airmass entrenched across the Kansas 
neighborhood, scattered thunderstorms will continue across the 
region. Airmass will of course destabilize this afternoon but with 
strong mid-upper high pressure covering the lower & mid MS valley 
deep-layer shear will continue to be weak. As such, the severe 
thunderstorm potential would remain marginal at best. With such 
high octane moisture entrenched across the region, locally heavy 
rains would continue to be the primary product, especially across 
SC & southeast Kansas where precipitable waters will reach into the 2 to 2.25 
range late this afternoon & tonight. 


Mon-Tue night: 
the intense mid-upper cyclone that had crossed the Saskatchewan/ 
Manitoba border Sat evening has begun to occlude as it crosses the 
Manitoba/Ontario border, however, the character is now expected to 
transition into an open wave as it pushes east/southeast the Ontario/Quebec 
border Mon morning. This would cause the strong & massive mid-upper 
high that has been covering the srn U.S. To slowly retrograde 
across the desert SW Mon & Mon night & with a 2nd upper-deck short 
wave quickly strengthening as it surges southeast toward, then across, the 
Great Lakes Mon night, the neighborhood would be under a deepening 
northwest regime. This, in turn, would drive a weak cold front S/southeast across 
Kansas Mon night. Convergence is weak & with the greatest upper support 
targeting the upper Midwest & Great Lakes the severe thunderstorm 
potential across the Kansas neighborhood would remain in check. 


Long term...(wednesday through saturday) 
issued at 340 am CDT sun Jun 26 2016 


With the northwest regime dominating the Great Plains and occasional weak 
shortwaves moving southeast into a predominantly moist environment, 
scattered thunderstorms would continue across the region throughout 
the week. As such, the forecast for these periods remains 
unchanged. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon) 
issued at 1207 PM CDT sun Jun 26 2016 


A weakening surface cold front was situated from northeast Kansas 
into south central Kansas. Convection should continue to develop 
and gradually increase in coverage this afternoon with the 
front and/or mesoscale boundary pushing the effective front south 
toward or into far northern Oklahoma this evening. While mainly 
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast valid period, 
periods of MVFR or even brief IFR can be expected in convection 
this afternoon though early tonight. However will relegate tempo 
groups to areas where near term confidence is highest. Some patchy 
MVFR fog and or stratus ceilings are possible early Monday morning, 
though confidence is not high enough yet to insert in the 
terminals. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 90 71 91 70 / 50 60 40 30 
Hutchinson 88 68 91 68 / 50 40 40 30 
Newton 88 69 90 68 / 50 50 40 30 
Eldorado 89 69 90 69 / 50 50 40 30 
Winfield-kwld 91 71 91 70 / 50 60 40 30 
Russell 87 67 91 66 / 40 20 40 30 
Great Bend 87 67 91 66 / 30 30 40 40 
Salina 89 68 92 68 / 40 30 40 30 
McPherson 88 68 91 68 / 60 40 40 30 
Coffeyville 91 71 91 68 / 50 60 40 20 
Chanute 89 70 91 67 / 50 60 40 20 
Iola 88 70 91 67 / 60 50 40 20 
Parsons-kppf 90 70 91 68 / 50 60 40 20 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...eps 
short term...eps 
long term...eps 
aviation...ked 






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