Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
1230 am EDT Friday Apr 18 2014 

high pressure will shift east into the Maritimes this evening and 
produce an onshore flow for our area through Friday. A cold front 
will cross the region Friday night. High pressure will build into 
the region Sunday and Monday. Another weak cold front will cross 
the region Tuesday. 


Near term /through today/... 
1225 am...have backed off the clouds along the coast coming in 
before there is no sign of them offshore at this time...and 
column remains very dry. Otherwise just some tweaks to the 
forecast based on current observation. 

940 PM update: input latest mesonet data. Skies remain mostly clear and 
temperatures on track with only a few minor tweaks for the next few hours. 
No other changes at this time. 

Previous disc; 
at 18z...the 1045 millibar surface high was situated vicinity of 
the Maine - New Brunswick border. Outside of a few high clouds on 
GOES imagery...skies were clear across the forecast area. Even 
with the strong sunshine...we were struggling to approach 40 
degrees in many locations this afternoon...a good 15 to 20 degrees 
below average for the date. We'll be mainly clear and cold again 
tonight...but a degree or two warmer then last night...with no 
low temperature records likely to be broken. The offshore low 
cloud in the return flow around the surface high...could spread 
into seacoast New Hampshire by dawn. 


Short term /tonight through 6 PM Saturday/... 
on Friday...onshore flow around the surface high limits highs to 
40s at the coast with some low cloud...patchy fog and drizzle 
possible south of Portland. Otherwise...a partly sunny day with 
warmest highs in the Connecticut valley with readings in the lower 

A cold front crosses the region Friday night with some spotty 
sleet...snow...and rain possible across the higher terrain with 
its passage. 


Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/... 
no significant weather 
events expected in the long term with models in fairly good agreement. Any 
lingering mixed precipitation in the mountains early Saturday 
should change to scattered showers before ending as temperatures warm. 
High pressure should provide pleasant Spring weather for Sunday 
into Monday. Warm advection on the back side of the high will 
produce increasing high clouds Monday. Another weak frontal system 
will bring the threat of showers to the region Tuesday. Models 
currently show a low developing south of the region along the 
front Tuesday night and Wednesday. The position of the front and 
track of the low will determine whether showers persist into 
Wednesday. Current model forecasts keep precipitation associated 
with this low south and east of region. High pressure builds into 
area for late in the week. 


Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/... 
short term /through Friday night/...VFR...with scattered MVFR possible 
Friday morning in marine stratus vicinity of kpsm. 

Long term...mainly VFR...with MVFR possible in mountains Saturday 
morning in mixed precipitation and then across all the area in showers 


short term /through Friday night/... 
we have some lingering 5 feet seas south of Portland this evening...then 
seas outside the bays will reach 5 feet again Friday morning in onshore 
flow with small craft seas likely to linger into Friday night. The 
current Small Craft Advisory was converted to an Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas with the 
new marine package this afternoon. 

Long term...Small Craft Advisory criteria possible Tuesday ahead of approaching 
front...otherwise no flags. 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 am EDT 
Saturday for anz150-152-154. 


near term...cempa 
short term... 
long term... 

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