Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
824 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014 


Synopsis... 
cool and dry Canadian high pressure will continue to build and 
remain over the region into the weekend. An inverted trough will 
try to push into the ridge come Thursday...but at the moment it 
appears that its effects will only reach into southern New 
England. A significant warming trend expected by Friday and cool 
clear nights through at least Monday. A back door cold front may 
pass into the region on Monday with a chance of showers and cooler 
temperatures. 


&& 


Near term /through Wednesday/... 
update...have increased sky cover a bit across western zones...as 
stratocu is slowly eroding. Otherwise...no changes. 


Previous discussion...a fair weather night is expected overnight 
with mostly clear skies for much of the night. A weak short wave 
trough is expected to move across the area during the night and 
this may provide for a few hours of broken cloudiness. This may 
keep temperatures from falling to frosty levels overnight despite 
high pressure building overhead late. This combined with the 
potential to fog in has made ME decide against a frost advisory 
tonight for zones where the season ended yet. However...have added 
patchy frost to interior Cumberland County northeastward. 


&& 


Short term /Wednesday night/... 
high pressure will dominate Wednesday and Wednesday night with 
fair weather in store. Some lower-level moisture trapped 
underneath a subsidence inversion may allow for periods of broken 
cloudiness across southern and western zones Wednesday. Light 
winds and temperatures well into the 60s should make for a 
pleasant day for most. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/... 
high pressure looks to remain in place through the weekend...with 
a possible hiccup on Thursday as low pressure moving up the 
Atlantic coastline may push some precipitation in for the southern most 
areas of the forecast area. At the moment it appears that the high 
overhead will hold it off...but it will need to be watched to see 
how it unfolds over the next few model runs. At most just going 
with some low end slight chance probability of precipitation across those areas for now. 


Temperatures will continue to increase with time. Expect widespread 
70s during the day by the Friday and some 80s likely for Saturday 
and Sunday. I bumped temperatures up a few degrees than what was 
previously forecasted for this time frame...as Euro ensembles show a 
mean of about 80 for the area and based on t850 of 15-18c I believe 
that highs in the 80s is certainly warranted...so get out the surf 
boards and head to the beach to enjoy the return of Summer for a few 
days. 


Operational models and ensembles are still showing a backdoor cold 
front may crossing the region early next week...so confidence is 
building that the summerlike weather will be confined to the 
weekend. High temperatures on Monday will likely only climb into the low 
to middle 60s and a showers will be possible...but good news is that 
high pressure will build back in and temperatures should recover 
quite nicely by the end of the period. 


&& 


Aviation /01z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
short term...tonight through Wednesday night...other than the 
usual River Valley fog...we are expecting VFR conditions tonight 
through Wednesday night. 


Long term...high pressure will remain anchored over the region 
during the long term. This will allow for mostly VFR 
conditions...however patchy dense late night fog may allow for 
isolated LIFR conditions across some of the interior 
valleys...especially at leb and hie. Also watching the chance for 
some tropical moisture moving in on Thursday which could provide 
southern areas with some clouds and possible a few 
showers...however right now the thinking is that no worse than 
MVFR conditions is expected with this system. 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...high pressure building over the waters later tonight 
through Wednesday night will allow for sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. 


Long term...winds and seas are expected remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...legro 






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