Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
1125 am EDT sun Oct 23 2016 

low pressure in Quebec will gradually move further north today. In 
its wake rain and snow showers will continue in the mountains 
while elsewhere cloudy skies in the morning will give way to some 
sun in the afternoon. Windy conditions are expected today. Tonight 
clearing occurs across all areas as the dry west flow continues 
but diminishes. The cool cyclonic flow will continue through 
midweek. By the end of the week another upper trough will approach 
and move through the area with more unsettled weather. 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
have updated the grids based on current conditions and latest 
mesoscale model information. We continue to transition from a 
synoptically driven precip environment to purely an upslope flow 
event. Rain and snow showers will continue today, mainly across 
the west-northwest facing higher terrain. Current radar imagery 
continues to show a very good upslope signature, however some of 
these echoes are not reaching the ground downwind of the 

Made minor adjustments to temperature forecast and tweaks to the 
wind forecast. Winds continue to be very strong over the high 
terrain with over 100 mph winds on top of Mount Washington. 

Prev disc... 
the center of low pressure is now located north of 
Maine along the St Lawrence River valley and moving north. In the 
systems wake a broad cyclonic flow will continue across the area 
today keeping rain and snow showers in the mountains and 
foothills. Above 3000 feet a few inches of snow may accumulate. 
Over southern and downslope areas conditions will gradually dry 
out and the clouds will give way to some sun in the afternoon. 
With the strong westerly pressure gradient lined up vertically 
combined with cold advection aloft, mixing down of winds expected 
thus strong gusty winds today but should remain just below Wind 
Advisory criteria. Some exceptions will be over the higher terrain 
but will be localized. Temperatures will remain steady during the 
day or only rise a few degrees due to the strong cold air 
advection. Used a blend of models for Max temps and for wind 
forecast relied on the wrfems which appeared better. 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/... 
the cool west flow continues tonight and Monday and all areas 
are expected to clear out except for some lingering clouds in the 
mountains due to orographics. Temperatures will be cool tonight through 
Monday. Winds will diminish some overnight but then increase and 
become gusty once again during Monday as a weak short wave exits 
to our south Monday. 


Long term /Monday night through Saturday/... 
in the 500mb hemispheric pattern, any signs of of possible +pna 
pattern break down toward the end of the week, although the ridging 
in the west and the troughing in east do set up a cool spell through 
Wed before large scale troughing over the ern Continental U.S. Breaks down and 
troughs become more Mobile. This will allow for some warmer and 
cooler periods, but generally 850 temps stay with a few degrees c of 
normal late this week into next weekend. 

Mon night and Tue will see decent shot of energy swinging around 
base of the large scale trough, and deepening it while pulling even 
cooler air southward into New England. This will pull sfc and 850 
mb low over the Maritimes a little bit to the south and west and 
will keep decent gradient in the low to mid levels, so look for northwest 
flow to persist with upslope showers continuing in the mountains. 
In fact, will likely see the upslope surge a little bit late Monday 
night into Tuesday as the wave moves through. Lows Mon night will 
be around 30 in the north to the mid 30s along the coast and in 
srn New Hampshire with highs on Tue ranging from the low 40s in the north to near 50 
in the south. 

Tue night will see the northwest flow slacken off a bit and with colder air 
place will see mins drop to the upper 20 north to the mid 30s S, but 
still too much flow to allow for any real rad cooling. Wed should 
be partly to mostly sunny with weakening northwest flow as sfc high builds 
in, and Max temps not all that different from Tue. Next system 
arrives late Thu into Friday, as sfc low tracks to our north and allows 
for some warning, buit also the threat for showers, mainly Thu 
night into Friday. 

Sat remains uncertain with possible weak closed 500mb low in the 
vicinity, but it should cool down a bit for next weekend. 


Aviation /16z Sunday through Thursday/... 
short term...VFR conditions expected in all southern and downslope 
areas today while in the mountains MVFR conditions are expected 
in scattered rain and snow showers. Conditions will improve to VFR 
in the mountains tonight. All areas will be VFR on Monday. 

Long term...mainly VFR Mon night through Thu. Khie could see some 
periods of flight restrictions in shrasn Mon night into Tue. 



short term...a persistent west flow will keep gales over the 
outer waters into tonight. Strong Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected in 
the bays through tonight. On Monday the west gradient winds will 
continue but will not be as strong. A Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters on 
Monday will likely be needed while in the bays, conditions should 
remain just below criteria. 

Long term...Small Craft Advisory conds likely to persist through Tuesday and maybe 
into Tue night, but winds should subside for Wed and Thu. 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for anz151- 
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for anz150-152-154. 


short term...Cannon 
long term...schwibs 

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations
Back to forecast page
Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)

Units: English | Metric

Find the Weather for any City, State or Zipcode, or Country:

U.S. State List | Severe Weather | Tropical Storms | Ski Conditions
United States | Canada | Central America | South America | Asia | Europe | Australia | Africa | Islands

Weather Underground

© Copyright 2016
The Weather Company, LLC