Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
1028 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 

another cold front will cross the region overnight. Mountain snow 
showers will continue through Friday...with several inches of snow 
possible north of The Notches. The coldest air of the season will 
move in behind the front...with highs struggling to break freezing 
even at the coast. High pressure will build in for the weekend 
continuing cold temperatures. A low will approach the region on 
Monday with snow spreading across the region and rain mixing in 
along the coast through Tuesday. 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 
1025 PM...just a few minor tweaks based on current obs and 
latest mesoscale models. Secondary cold front still on track to 
cross the County Warning Area in the 06-12z range, with upslope snows increasing 
in intensity in the mountains between and 06-08z. 

740 PM...first cold front now exiting the County Warning Area moving offshore off 
coastal ME attm. Secondary cold front will cross the region after 
midnight, and will usher in the colder air. In between there is a 
little bit of a lull in the shsn in the mountains, although a few 
scattered showers and flurries are possible this evening. The 
better accumulating snow here will begin closer to midnight as the 
the front moves through and the cold upslope flow kicks in. 
Overnight low will drop off some this evening, but will wait for 
the push of cold air, and will range from the low 20s in the north 
to the upper 20s in srn New Hampshire and on the coast. 

Previously...the first cold front is crossing the mtns at this 
time...forcing a broken band of snow showers thru the forecast 
area. Based on area webcams and a small handful of automated 
observations...visibility has dropped to 1/4 mile at times in 
these squalls. Temps are also falling below freezing behind the 
front...especially in the mtns and foothills. So some refreezing 
of minor snow accumulations will likely occur on roadways. I have 
issued a couple spss to handle this threat into the early evening. 
After the passage of the front...temps will gradually decrease 
overnight in a well mixed environment. Upslope snow showers will 
tend to stick closer to the high Froude numbers go 
back towards critical after the initial surge of cold air advection. Then the 
secondary Arctic front approaches the forecast area around 
midnight. Once again deeper mixing will allow some snow showers to 
cross the ridge line and track towards the coast. Snow squall 
parameters do appear favorable for some of these to also be heavy 
at times. The focus of the heaviest precip however will remain 
closer to the highest terrain. 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/... 
cold northwest flow will continue on Fri. Closed mid and upper level lows 
will remain over the Canadian Maritimes...with strongly cyclonic 
flow directed over the high terrain. With a lingering pool of low 
level moisture upstream in Canada...upslope snow showers should be 
favorable for moderate accumulations over parts of nrn New Hampshire and 
adjacent wrn ME. It is not out of the question that a winter wx 
advisory may be needed for a few zones. 

Farther S...high temps will struggle towards freezing with strong 
cold air advection thru the day. Wind gusts will top out around 25 to 30 kts at 
times...making it feel even colder. Cold air advection continues into the mixing will limit the overall cooling off of temps. 


Long term /Friday night through Thursday/... 
a relatively zonal flow will persist through the start of next 
week...with a series of weak waves moving through. By Tuesday a 
long wave trough develops over Hudson Bay and cold air shifts 
southward into the central Continental U.S.. this will allow for a storm 
system to move up the Ohio Valley and into northern New England. 

The weekend begins with cold high pressure building into the 
region. Mountain snow showers will come to an end of Saturday with 
clearing skies. Winds will decrease through the region as the 
pressure gradient decreases. Overnight temperatures will drop to 
near zero through the mountains... with isolated valleys below 
zero. A few clouds remaining in upslope regions would be enough to 
prevent widespread below zero temperatures. 

On Sunday clouds will start to move in from the west in advance 
of a developing system moving up the Ohio River valley for Monday. 
The trend over the past few days has been to push back the timing 
of the storm... with precipitation not moving into our 
southwestern areas until very early Monday morning. Expect 
precipitation to begin as snow region wide and spread across the 
region through the day on Monday. By Monday night the 
possibilities expand with the changing storm track. GFS tracks 
further inland which has the effect of allowing warm air aloft to 
infiltrate through southern Maine. With the high pressure for 
Saturday and Sunday the cold temperatures are likely to remain 
dammed at the surface, so warm air aloft would put a period of 
mixed precipitation into southern Maine coastal plain. While a 
mixed scenario is one possibility, it is not the only one. 
Increasing strength of cold air aloft could also drive the storm 
track slightly further south keeping any above freezing 
temperatures off shore in teh Gulf of Maine. At this point have 
leaned towards a colder solution, in part because of the strength 
of existing cold air mass. 

The track of the storm will also have an impact on the winds, 
with a south track resulting in a more classic Nor'easter type set 
up with gusts too around 30along the coast. A inland and warmer 
scenario keeps the center of the storm over US and results in 
lower wind speeds. Have hedged to the stronger winds in keeping 
with the colder solution. 

The active pattern continues through next week with another 
chance for precipitation on Wednesday. 


Aviation /04z Friday through Tuesday/... 
short term...first cold front is crossing the mtns at this hour 
with a band of snow showers along it. Very brief IFR or lower 
conditions are possible with this front...mostly likely to hold 
together thru Aug...possibly rkd. Northwest flow develops behind the 
front...keeping areas downwind of the mtns VFR tonight. Hie will 
remain MVFR in upslope clouds...and occasional MVFR cigs may work 
into leb overnight. Hie may also see rounds of shsn that drop 
vsbys to IFR or lower at times...especially with Arctic frontal 
passage around midnight tonight. Strong northwest flow continues 
Fri...with surface gusts around 25 kts. Upslope shsn continue at 
hie thru the day. 

Long term... 
Sunday night MVFR clouds moving in west to east. Expect IFR snow 
to develop late Monday. Tuesday may see a period of mixed precip 
along the coast. 


short term...I have upgraded the outer waters to Gale Warning for 
Fri...and made the bays scas beginning this afternoon. First cold 
front will cross the waters this evening...with winds increasing 
to Small Craft Advisory thresholds. The secondary Arctic front crosses the area 
tonight. Gale force wind gusts will begin behind this front. 
Strongest wind gusts will linger into Fri evening before gradually 

Long term... 
storm developing Monday into Tuesday will result in wind and waves 
increasing to near gale. 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Friday for anz151-153. 
Gale Warning from 10 am to 11 PM EST Friday for anz150-152-154. 


near term...cempa/legro 
short term...legro 
long term...Curtis/legro 

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations
Back to forecast page
Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)

Units: English | Metric

Find the Weather for any City, State or Zipcode, or Country:

U.S. State List | Severe Weather | Tropical Storms | Ski Conditions
United States | Canada | Central America | South America | Asia | Europe | Australia | Africa | Islands

Weather Underground

© Copyright 2016
The Weather Company, LLC