Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
238 PM EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


Synopsis... 
a coastal low will bring a prolonged period of rain through the 
end of the week. The system will finally drift off into the 
Maritimes Friday night. A cold front crosses the region by 
Sunday. High pressure builds in for the beginning of next week. 


&& 


Near term /through 6 am Friday/... 
at 18z...low pressure surface and aloft was centered south of 
Cape Cod. Water vapor and GOES infrared imagery continued to show 
bands of convection with embedded thunder rotating around this 
system and onshore into the County Warning Area. Another 1 to as much as 2 inches 
of rain is possible through the late evening and the Flood Watch 
will remain in place with the new forecast package issuance this 
afternoon. Any additional Hydro issues should be confined to 
smaller rivers and streams and not the larger main Stem rivers. 
The rain will wind down overnight as the low begins to slide 
further offshore to our southeast. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Friday through 6 PM Friday/... 
clouds will linger on Friday...along with a few showers as 
moisture and weak impulses continue to pivot around the upper low 
centered well south of Nova Scotia. It will be another cool late 
fall day with highs only in the 40s and lower 50s. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Thursday/... 
much more tranquil conditions are expected Friday night...as our 
stubborn...cutoff low pressure systems edges slowly through the 
Canadian Maritimes. This will allow Saturday to be a much nicer 
day with less cloud cover and little in the way of winds. 


A strong cold front will cross the region however late Saturday 
night into Sunday morning. Much colder air will be ushered into 
the region on gusty northwest winds. Snow showers will fall over the 
higher terrain during this period as upsloping conditions persist 
in the north and downsloping in the south. 


High pressure will follow with mainly dry conditions for much of 
the middle of the workweek. Thereafter...another...but much weaker 
cold front will cross the region later in the week. 


&& 


Aviation /17z Thursday through Monday/... 
short term...MVFR with areas of IFR through tonight in rain and 
fog. Surface wind gusts up to 25 knots expected along the coast to near 
kaug through 00z. MVFR ceilings with scattered rain showers expected during the 
day Friday. 


Long term...mainly VFR conditions...however ceilings and visibilities may 
be lowering with the passage of a cold front Saturday night and 
early Sunday morning. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...gale force gusts will continue into tonight before 
the surface low slides far enough offshore for the gradient to 
relax. Gales headlined through 06z Friday with Small Craft Advisory conditions 
expected through Friday. 


Long term...Small Craft Advisory type winds likely with the passage of the cold 
front Sunday into Monday. Brisk west-northwest winds. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected. While this 
rain will not fall quickly enough to cause flash flooding...the 
cumulative effect of this much rain over the last several days may 
still be enough to bring some streams and smaller rivers into 
flood. A Flood Watch remains in effect through late evening. 


&& 


Tides/coastal flooding... 
pockets of minor splashover and beach erosion will be possible 
tonight and Friday around the time of high tide. Tides are 
astronomically low and major problems are not expected. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for mez007>009-012>014- 
018>028. 
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for 
mez023>028. 
New Hampshire...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for nhz004-006-008>010- 
013-014. 
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for 
nhz014. 
Marine...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for anz150>154. 


&& 


$$ 
Es/jc 






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