Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
304 am EDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015 


Synopsis... 
weak high pressure will crest across the area today before 
another low pressure system approaches from the west late today 
through Wednesday. The system will bring showers and thunderstorms 
to the region on Wednesday before high pressure moves in on 
Thursday. High pressure then remains in place into the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /today/... 
we'll see weak ridging today ahead of the impulse currently 
diving southeast into the Great Lakes on GOES water vapor imagery. 
Clouds were scattering out over southern sections of the forecast 
area as of 06z with approach of the ridge. With our narrow 
temperature/dewpoint spread...that should spell some early morning 
fog and stratus. Early morning fog and stratus will burn off...and 
we'll see several hours of sunshine before the ridge exits the 
coast and opens the door for clouds to overspread the area in 
advance of the next system. Warm air advection may give rise to a 
few showers...isolated thunder vicinity of the Connecticut valley 
towards evening...otherwise a dry day anticipated for much of the 
region. Highs will be mainly in the 70s with a few 80 degree 
readings extreme southern New Hampshire. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through 6 PM Wednesday/... 
warm air advection clouds and precipitation continues to spread 
slowly north and east tonight across the region in the form of 
showers and isolated thunder. Lows will range from the middle 50s to 
the lower 60s. The warm front will then lift to our north Wednesday 
morning...with a second round of showers and thunderstorms ahead 
of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening. While instability 
looks marginal...there should be sufficient shear for a few strong 
storms with potential for isolated damaging winds. For now i've 
limited enhanced wording to gusty winds given continued 
uncertainty. Highs on Wednesday should be in the 70s. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/... 
upper trough axis and surface cold front will move east Wednesday 
night... bringing any lingering shower/thunderstorm activity to an 
end. High pressure gradually builds eastward out of the Midwest 
and Great Lakes through the weekend. Temperatures generally in the 
70s during the day and 50s at night... a little below seasonal 
normals. 


Surface low pressure tracks off the middle Atlantic coast Friday 
night and offshore of Cape Cod on Saturday. This feature looks 
quite weak and will track far enough south to avoid significant 
rain chances for Independence day Saturday. With elongated surface 
high pressure axis across the area expect light winds and a sea 
breeze to develop. Southern New Hampshire will warm into the upper 
70s to near 80 while coastal Maine tops out in the low 70s. Should 
be a pretty nice day for all those who may be choosing outdoor 
activities to celebrate the 239th anniversary of United States 
Independence. 


Amplifying ridge aloft will allow for building warmth over the 
area Sunday and Monday with temperatures warming into the 80s for 
most of the area by Monday... though an onshore southerly flow 
keeps coastal Maine cooler. The next trough will bring rain 
chances toward the middle of next week. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
short term /through 00z Thu/...isolated brief IFR/LIFR possible in 
fog through 11z otherwise VFR through 22z. Scattered MVFR after 22z 
in showers and isolated thunderstorms. Widespread MVFR expected 
on Wednesday in showers and scattered thunderstorms ahead of a 
cold front. 


Long term...high pressure builds in behind the cold front 
Wednesday night leading to an extended period of VFR conditions. 
Cannot rule out nighttime valley fog at Whitefield and Lebanon. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /through Wednesday/...quiet today as a weak ridge 
traverse the waters. A warm front crosses the area late tonight 
and Wednesday morning...followed by a trailing cold front late 
Wednesday. 


Long term...high pressure stretches across the northern United 
States and into the Gulf of Maine Wednesday through Saturday. Low 
pressure passes southeast of Cape Cod on Saturday but will not 
have much of an effect on Gulf of Maine weather. Fairly tranquil 
conditions expected through the weekend with fairly light winds 
and seas generally less than 3 feet. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Kimble/schwibs 






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