Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
1008 am EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build east across the region through Thursday, 
before setting up over the western Atlantic by the weekend. This will 
lead to mainly fair conditions into early next week. A cold front 
will drop into northern Maine on Friday, but will not make it 
further south than that. Look for seasonably mild temperatures and 
low humidity through Friday, followed by warming and increasing 
humidity over the weekend and into early next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 8 PM this evening/... 


1000 am...at 14z a 1024 millibar high was centered near Lake 
Huron. GOES visible imagery showed a few cumulus developing with 
daytime heating...otherwise a mostly sunny day as surface high 
builds eastward. Only minor adjustments to 1st period grids based 
largely on the mesonet. 


Previous disc... 
620 am...after fog/stratus Burns off this morning...expecting 
a sunny day with north winds weakening during the afternoon...as high 
pressure builds in across New England. Sea breeze will kick in along 
the immediate coast...but probably too late to move much inland 
today. Highs will be in 70s County Warning Area wide. 


&& 


Short term /8 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/... 
high pressure will continue to build over New England tonight into Thursday. 
This will make for a good rad cooling night...despite the fact 
that we are experiencing the shortest nights of the year. Fog is 
almost a given in the sheltered spots...but will have to watch for 
some frost as well in the mountain valleys. Thinking is that it will 
be limited...given the short night...and the tendency toward fog 
prior to frosting...with dew points in the upper 30s. 


Look for another mainly sunny day on Thursday...with temperatures a few 
degrees warmer than today. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/... 
nwp in general agreement that trough lifts out of the 
northeast...and heights begin to rise through the weekend. This means 
a couple things for the County warning forecast area in the long term portion of the 
forecast. 


First...this will allow heat dome to build eastward through the 
period. We/ll be on the fringe at first...with temperatures near to above 
normal. With time ensemble guidance points towards anomalously 
high heights and middle level temperatures for early next week. This would 
translate to more Summer like feel to temperatures. 


Second...this will place the County warning forecast area near the transition zone of air 
masses. As ridge builds eastward with time and begins to flatten...shortwave 
troughs within the flow...and convectively induced...will begin to 
spill over the top. Any of these could bring a chance of rain showers or 
thunderstorms...but the development and timing of these is poorly handled 
by guidance. There is some indication that one or two may try and 
brush the County warning forecast area late this week and over the weekend. These will 
struggle to make a meaningful push through the area...as they battle 
building heights. Possibly a more substantial shortwave will work 
towards the area by the middle of next week. As such it will be 
tough to rule out a chance of rain showers/thunderstorms most days near the 
baroclinic zone...but overall the forecast is for drier conditions 
than recent weeks. 


In addition...with heat building into the area and west-northwest flow 
aloft...we/ll have to keep an eye out for stronger convection 
given that this is a favorable set up for such activity in northern New 
England. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
short term...fog and stratus have developed at 
kleb/khie/kcon...and will persist through about 12z. Looks for 
another round of fog at this same terminals tonight/ otherwise 
expect VFR. 


Long term...VFR conds to prevail...but scattered MVFR cannot be ruled 
out in rain showers/thunderstorms over the weekend. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...waters will be quiet as seas/winds will remain below 
Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday. 


Long term...winds look to remain at or below Small Craft Advisory thresholds...but 
prolonged S to SW flow may build seas above 5 feet for the weekend. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Es