Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
1050 PM EDT Wednesday may 4 2016 


Synopsis... 
a deep trough of low pressure will evolve over the eastern third 
of the country and remain in place through the end of the week. A 
series of waves will move north along the East Coast and bring 
periods of rain to New England...along with cool...onshore winds. 
One period comes tonight into Thursday. More unsettled weather 
conditions are expected late in the work week and through the 
weekend due to the close proximity of an upper level low pressure 
system. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... 
930 PM update: widespread rain now across all of southern and 
central areas of ME/NH. Sticking with high categorical probability of precipitation over 
southern and east central Maine and southern New Hampshire until very late 
tonight. Increased quantitative precipitation forecast totals some along coastal and adjacent 
inland areas. Temperatures not moving much as forecast but a few minor 
tweaks needed based on observation. 


450pm update: updated grids to include high probability of precipitation across New Hampshire and 
western ME the rest of the afternoon as widespread light rain 
occurring. Further east across the midcoast only cloudy conditions at 
this time and left very low probability of precipitation. Increased probability of precipitation for the early 
evening as well as trajectories and models all point to areas of 
light rain to continue. Radar and water vapor supports this short 
term trend. Minor tweaks to temperatures based on latest observation data. 


Previous discussion: 
low pressure will form off the middle Atlantic coastline tonight in 
response to an approaching upper level low pressure system over 
the southeastern United States. This system will bring periods of 
rain...drizzle and fog tonight as it gradually undergoes 
cyclogenesis and moves northeast...well off the coastline. 


The ptype will mainly be in the form of rain...but sleet or snow 
pellets may continue at times over Mount Washington. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/... 
periods of rain...drizzle and fog will continue Thursday morning 
as the surface low passes southeast of Cape Cod. The Euro appears 
to be the most aggressive with the development of this system as 
it crosses the benchmark Thursday evening. Due to this 
development...heavy rain may occur along the coast...in particular 
the midcoast region where over an inch rainfall is expected. 


The precipitation may taper to showers Thursday night in response to 
winds backing to the northwest. 


Temperatures will continue to be rather chilly...with 40s to lower 
50s mainly for daytime highs on Thursday. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Wednesday/... 
deterministic models and ensembles are in decent agreement that 
mean troughing will remain over or near New England through much 
of the period. This will mean more clouds than sun during the 
period with a some rainy/showery periods. 


In the dailies...onshore flow will keep things cool and cloudy on 
Friday. It won't be a washout but showers will probably occur from 
time to time. The same GOES for Saturday. A cold front looks to 
traverse the region on Sunday with showers likely. We may get a 
break from the real cruddy weather on Monday in the wake of a cold 
front. Looks like a decent shot of a dry day then. 
Thereafter...for Tuesday and Wednesday...a lot of model spread 
exists where a potential warm front sets up. If it sets up over 
southern New England...rainy weather will return. Hopefully it 
sets up south of there and allow for a couple of nice days Tuesday and 
Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation /03z Thursday through Monday/... 
short term...areas of IFR with locally LIFR conditions expected to 
continue tonight as areas of drizzle and fog develop. This will 
continue into Thursday...with a very slow and slight improvement 
later Thursday night as winds back to the northwest. 


Long term...widespread MVFR conditions with local IFR conditions 
can be expected Friday through the weekend as stubborn low 
pressure nearby allows for lower ceilings and visibilities in rain/showers. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...have issued small craft advisories as system moves 
off the eastern Seaboard and east of the Gulf of Maine. Winds and 
seas will be building through Thursday and the scas may need to be 
extended into Thursday night. 


Long term...seas on the ocean waters Friday through early next week 
will probably hold at low-end Small Craft Advisory criteria due to persistent 
onshore flow. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
days of cloudy skies with wetting rains on and off through the 
weekend will keep fire danger low. 


&& 


Tides/coastal flooding... 
very high astronomical tides will combine with a developing 
onshore flow on Thursday as low pressure moves northeast from the 
middle Atlantic region. Coordinated with weather forecast office box and plan to handle 
any possible coastal flood issues with advisories on Thursday...if 
needed...in areas from Portland and points south. Therefore no 
watches will be issued this package. 


Nart based wave runup matrices continue to depict some erosion 
beginning the Thursday evening high tide along coastal York 
County. However...nearshore waves will be around 5-6 feet. It 
should be noted however that the Euro is more robust with this 
system. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 7 am to 6 PM EDT Thursday for anz151- 
153. 
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for anz150-152- 
154. 


&& 


$$ 



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