Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
633 am EST Friday Nov 28 2014 


Synopsis... 
a trough of low pressure over the Gulf of Maine will shift 
eastward today. Any snow showers and flurries this morning will 
end this afternoon. Cold high pressure will build in from the 
west this afternoon and will shift offshore on Saturday. A warm 
front will lift north through the region Saturday night. A cold 
front will approach from the west Sunday and will cross the region 
Sunday night. High pressure will gradually build in from the west 
Monday through Tuesday. High pressure will shift offshore Tuesday 
night and will be followed by a cold front on Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
630 am...chasing the light snow associated with the inverted 
trough this update. Based on latest radar trends it looks like 
middle level trough has picked up the surface trough...and convergence is 
shifting eastward. Have expanded probability of precipitation a bit to the north and east to cover 
this. Definitely seeing an eastward progression to the back of the snow 
as it moves across New Hampshire...and still the NAM picks up on this nicely. 
Should see all accumulate snow move through the County Warning Area by 14-15z. 


Previously...main forecast challenge will be the inverted trough 
that has developed over the Gulf of ME and into New England. 
-Sn/shsn being reported from central New Hampshire southeast to the seacoast. 
Continue to favor the nam12...which is also supported by the 
hrrr/rap...although the NAM is doing a better job with quantitative precipitation forecast and 
looks to linger it through about 15z...although most precipitation will fall 
by 12z. Some accumulating snow possible in central and southern 
New Hampshire...and parts of York County ME...maybe an inch in some spots. 
Not much quantitative precipitation forecast with this system but ratios are in the 15-20 to 1 
range. Once the 700mb trough clears the County Warning Area to the east by 
midday...trough breaks down and ridging starts to develop...so 
skies become partly to mostly sunny during th afternoon. Highs 
will be below normal...ranging from middle-upper 20s to low-middle 30s 
south and coast. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/... 
surface high builds in from the SW tonight and should very good rad 
cooling night...especially with snowpack in place. While MOS 
guidance generally overdoes rad cooling...a fresh snowpack may 
make it more reasonable. Have used a trad blend of models for mins 
but have given the mav/met more weight...which bring lows in the 
mountains valleys close to zero...and even the warmer southern zones 
will see single digits to lower teens for mins. 


Saturday looks generally fair with light winds and sunny skies in 
the morning...with increasing middle to high clouds in the 
afternoon. The listed mixing will lead to another day with high 
in the upper 20s to middle 30s. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/... 
the models are in general agreement on the long wave pattern 
through late next week. Several impulses rotating around an upper 
low vicinity of Hudson Bay will bring brief shots of Arctic air to 
the forecast area. We begin the period with a broad west-southwest 
flow aloft and milder temperatures as we wait for the next impulse 
to dive southeast into the Great Lakes before racing east into New 
England. This impulse will drive an associated cold front through 
the region early Monday followed by a brief return of below normal 
temperatures for Tuesday. A warm up follows for midweek before the 
next impulse drives yet another cold front through the area late 
Wednesday. In the dailies...a warm front will cross the area 
Sunday followed by a trailing cold front early Monday. High 
pressure will cross the region Tuesday. Another cold front will 
cross New England late Wednesday followed by high pressure for 
Thursday and Friday. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/... 
short term...MVFR conditions due to -sn and low clouds at 
kpsm/kcon/kleb/khie will continue into the first part of this 
morning...with some periods of IFR in steadier shsn. Improvement 
to VFR expect by midday at all terminals. VFR conds then expected 
through Saturday. 


Long term... 


Sat night - Monday...scattered MVFR possible in rain and snow showers. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...still seeing seas of 5-6 feet....although this is 
mostly due to swell...some wind waves are being generated by NE 
jet along the SW ME coast...but seas will continue to subside through 
the morning. Otherwise winds/seas remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. 


Long term... 


Sun - Tuesday...small craft winds and seas are likely. 


Sun and Tuesday...wind gusts outside the bays could approach gale. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis... 
near term...cempa 
short term... 
long term... 
aviation... 
marine... 



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