Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
730 PM EDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014 


Synopsis... 
two weak cold fronts will affect the region through the end of the 
week. One moves in from the west and one from the northeast. Both 
will produce little more then an isolated shower or 
thunderstorm...and an increase in clouds. However...an onshore 
flow will return the region to cooler weather through the end of 
the week. A ridge of high pressure will anchor over Maine and New 
Hampshire over the weekend and early next week...with a gradual 
warming trend. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 730 PM update...have updated the 
forecast based on latest trends in observational data. One main 
change later tonight and tomorrow morning was to increase probability of precipitation for 
showers and southwestern New Hampshire as models starting to come around to a wetter 
/albeit minor/ scenario. 


Previously... this evening will stay mostly clear...with light to 
calm winds. Dew points are a little higher than last night...and this will 
keep mins a few degrees higher than previous nights...and closer to 
normal...generally in the 50s. Will see patchy valley fog once a 
gain...but TI looks to be more prevalent...developing in some of the 
valleys at the edge of the coastal plain. 




&& 


Short term /Thursday through Thursday night/... 
500mb closed low the west begins to fill on Thursday...as another weak 
low closes off the Gulf of ME. This will act to weaken and stall 
the surface front approaching from the west...but will also pu;; 
cooler air from the NE...which will set up another weak surface 
boundary...enhanced by the onshore density flow. Look for clouds 
to increase over northestern zones and in the CT valley region during the 
day...perhaps bordering at M/cdy in both places during the 
afternoon...with the threat of rain showers and maybe a thunderstorms and rain...especially 
in the ME mtns/foothills. Coastal areas should remain part-mostly 
sunny through the day. Highs will be limited to 70 to 75. 


Thursday night will see some clearing as any clouds and rain showers will be at 
least partially driven by diurnal heating. Some moisture pooling 
between the two fronts will keep mins from dropping too much below 
the middle to upper 50s. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Wednesday/... 
a frontal boundary will remain southwest of area through early 
next week as a series of waves move along the front. This will 
bring more clouds into the region for Thursday night and Friday. 
A strengthening surface ridge over Maine will gradually push 
frontal boundary southwest leading to partly cloudy skies over the 
weekend and early next week with pleasant temperatures. A cold 
front will approach the region middle week next week. New Hampshire 
and the western mountains of Maine could see a shower late 
Thursday night or Friday....otherwise dry weather is expected 
across the region through early next week. Derived outlook period 
from the superblend model. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/... 
short term...mainly VFR through Thursday night...except for valley fog at 
khie/kleb...and perhaps a brief period around sunrise at 
kcon/kaug. 


Long term...VFR conditions expected except for morning fog in 
favored areas. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...winds and seas to remain well below small craft 
levels. 


Long term...winds and seas expected to be below small craft 
criteria. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Near term update...mle 
near term...cempa 
short term...cempa 
long term...marine 
aviation...cempa 
marine...cempa 



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