000 
fxus61 kgyx 200048 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
748 PM EST sun Feb 19 2017 


Synopsis... 
a weak cold front will move farther offshore tonight. High 
pressure will build in from the northwest Monday and will crest 
over the area Monday night. High pressure will shift offshore on 
Tuesday as a weak warm front approaches from the west. The warm 
front will push east through the region Tuesday night. Weak low 
pressure will move east through the northern Great Lakes on 
Wednesday and will continue east through southern Quebec 
Wednesday night. A trailing cold front will gradually drop south 
through the region on Thursday...stalling over southern New 
England. The front will lift northward as a warm front on 
Friday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/... 
update... 
have updated the grids based on current conditions and model 
data for the overnight period. Cooler air will continue to 
gradually filter into the region on northwest winds after a day 
with high temperatures in the 50s for many areas. 


Clouds have increased in southern areas despite the northwest 
downslope flow. Also, will be monitoring once again for possible 
refreeze from today's snowmelt. 


Have upped pops over northern and central areas. Rain and snow 
showers will continue to slip out of the mountains from time to 
time. Have resent snow probabilities to the web. 


Prev disc... 
surface cold front has moved through the area. The 
wind shift went through Portland at 2pm and we'll see 
temperatures continue to fall this evening as northwesterly flow 
and cold air advection increases. Prior to the arrival we saw 
some very warm temperatures with readings in the 50s common 
throughout the area. Winds will increase overnight as cold air 
advection takes hold. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Monday morning through Monday night/... 
Monday surface high pressure will move in bringing and end to 
the northwesterly winds as the pressure gradient moves off to 
the east. Monday will be mostly sunny although not quite as warm 
as today with highs nearing 40f rather than 50f. By Monday 
night we see increasing heights aloft however the high directly 
overhead with clear skies should allow for good radiational 
cooling. Have dropped temperatures to just below zero in the 
northern mountain valleys. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/... 
above normal temperatures and a continued break from high impact 
weather will continue for much of the extended period. We'll see 
several other days with readings over central and southern 
sections nearing the 50s and even 60 on Thursday. 


High pressure slides offshore Tuesday allowing for warm air 
advection ahead of a frontal system. Warm air will spread over 
colder air at the surface late Tuesday night into Wednesday 
morning creating a wintry mix for a few hours. This may result 
in slick roads and walking surfaces. 


A slight chance of light rain and snow showers will continue 
for the higher terrain off and on with near zonal flow in place 
and another frontal fracture approaching late in the week. The 
next system bringing any widespread precipitation will occur 
next weekend when a deeper short wave spurs coastal low 
development near the Gulf of Maine. 


&& 


Aviation /01z Monday through Friday/... 
short term...VFR conditions will continue through Monday night. 
The one exception will be the mountains where areas from hie to 
b80 will see MVFR with possible shsn. 


Long term...VFR conditions are expected Tuesday. MVFR 
conditions will be possible Tuesday night in light mixed 
precipitation. VFR conditions are then expected Wednesday and 
Thursday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...cold front will cross the waters this evening with 
cold air advection and northwesterly flow moving in behind the 
front. Winds will increase to around 25-30kts and the Small 
Craft Advisory has been extended through Monday. 


Long term...no increased winds or waves over the waters to 
speak of until next weekend when coastal low pressure may 
develop. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 6 am to 5 PM EST Monday 
for anz151-153. 
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for anz150-152-154. 


&& 



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