Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
619 am EDT Tue Sep 27 2016 


Synopsis... 
a cold front arrives from the west this morning along with showers 
which will spread from west to east through mid morning. 
Conditions should dry out behind the front on with temperatures 
a few degrees warmer than Monday. Low pressure developing along 
the offshore front will create a northeasterly wind over Maine and 
New Hampshire Tuesday night, bringing clouds back into the area. 
Several waves of low pressure will track northeast along the front 
through the western Atlantic, with an occasional chance of showers 
especially near the coast throughout the week. The best chance of 
rain will be this weekend when the large upper level low pressure 
system over the Great Lakes lifts to the north, spreading rain 
into New England. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
615 am update...rain shield is moving through the area quickly and 
should be offshore by 9 am if not sooner. Some models including 
the hrrr have been too slow with this system. Have adjusted pops 
as well as temperatures and dew points. So far, storm total 
precipitation where it has rained has ranged from one tenth of an 
inch to around a half inch in very localized spots. 


Previous discussion... 
variable cloudiness across the region with warm overnight 
temperatures in the 50s areawide and even 60 degrees this hour in 
Nashua. Rain showers are just moving into New Hampshire and will eventually 
reach Maine in the next 2-3 hours before exiting the coast by mid 
morning. Most areas will see less than two-tenths of an inch out 
of this particular system. Temperatures will rebound into the 60s 
and 70s as skies clear from west to east. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/... 
high pressure builds in quickly behind the front bringing cooler 
and drier air into northern New England. Wednesday's highs will be 
cooler as a result around the upper 50s to the mid 60s. We will 
still have a fair amount of cloud cover with the upper low 
remaining nearby. Even as high pressure wedges against the higher 
terrain, showers will continue to be possible along the coast with 
a mid Atlantic low moving northeast along the coast. Will likely 
see drizzle as well. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Monday/... 
a very large upper low that will be centered over the Ohio Valley 
throughout the latter part of the week will drift slowly 
northeast over the weekend. This will produce a moist unstable air 
mass well to its east. Unsettled weather with several periods of 
rain or showers can be expected late in the week and into the 
weekend. This will be accompanied by a damp onshore flow as a 
broad persistent northeast maritime flow develops. With this 
northeast flow cool temperatures are expected and not much of a 
variation in diurnal temps expected. Models differ some on 
features and timing of some of the periods of precipitation so 
staying with a blend of models appeared best. Although a prolonged 
period of unsettled weather is expected, qpf amounts from the slow 
moving system will likely remain light overall as most models 
generally keep the heavier areas of rainfall south and east of 
the region. 


&& 


Aviation /10z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
short term...conditions have deteriorated this morning in showers 
which will end by mid morning. We will see MVFR conditions with 
IFR possible in heavy rain showers. Lower ceilings are more likely 
along the coast. Tonight into Wednesday morning drizzle and 
stratus will be possible. This could bring IFR conditions after 
00z Wednesday, with the western New Hampshire terminals hie and 
leb least likely to be impacted. 


Long term...MVFR conditions move in Wednesday night through the 
remainder of the period with some IFR conditions likely in any 
fog/stratus that settles over the region at times due to the 
persistent onshore maritime flow. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...a front crosses the region this morning. Winds will 
be variable before becoming easterly tonight. Winds and seas will 
flirt with Small Craft Advisory criteria beginning late tonight. Will let the day 
shift take a look at the possibility of issuing a Small Craft Advisory. 


Long term...winds and seas will remain at Small Craft Advisory levels through the 
outlook period over the outer waters and possibly in the bays due 
to a persistent northeast flow. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...Hanes 
short term...Hanes 
long term...marine 



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