Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
331 am EDT Sat may 23 2015 


Synopsis... 
high pressure builds in from the west today and then shifts to our 
south on Sunday. This will provide fair and cool conditions 
today...with much warmer weather on Sunday into Memorial Day. A 
warm front will cross the areas Monday night and 
Tuesday....providing a chance for showers and storms. Warm and 
more humid conditions are expected middle to late week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
cold front has crossed the forecast area this morning...and a 
seasonably cold air mass continues to pour into the region. This 
cold air advection is keeping winds fairly gusty across the area this morning. As 
a result...temperatures have only slowly and steadily fallen. High pressure 
is building in quickly from the west...so western zones may be able to 
decouple before sunrise and allow a quicker drop in readings. 
Elsewhere expect the current freeze warnings to work out 
well...with frost advisories remaining in place as well. 
However...any wind will likely make widespread frost difficult to 
attain this morning. 


The other concern today is the fire danger. BUFKIT soundings 
continue to show mixed layer through at least 825 mb. Dewpoints at 
this level indicate the potential to mix down low teens values by 
afternoon. This would bring widespread relative humidity values below 20 percent. 
Winds in the boundary layer are not overly strong...but gusts of 
20 to 25 kts will be likely. Finally recent dry weather has ensured 
that fine fuels remain ready to burn despite green up being under 
way. The combination of these factors will lead to red flag 
conditions this afternoon. The added aspect of the Holiday weekend 
and outdoor activities like bonfires and grilling will only 
elevate the risk further. Would rather have a red flag warning out 
than not at this point...so have upgraded the watch everywhere to 
a warning. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Sunday/... 
tonight return flow quickly begins...and for that reason we will 
see a warmer night for most areas. By sun temperatures will warm quite 
nicely on the backside of the high pressure...with 70s for much of the 
interior. With west to west-southwest flow in the boundary layer...the favored 
warm spots like kash could reach the 80s. Also expecting some 
dewpoint recovery in the return flow regime...but could still see 
widespread relative humidity values below 30 percent in the afternoon. That 
probably rules out another round of red flag conditions...but an 
elevated fire danger will still exist. 


Will also have to watch a weak cold front skirting the top of the 
ridge. Will probably try and touch off a few showers in the northern 
zones during the afternoon. The probably is low at this 
time...but Storm Prediction Center sref guidance does hint at a small chance at 
thunder but will leave it out of the grids for now until 
confidence is higher. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Friday/... 
blocky Summer-like pattern at 500 mb expected next week as 
ridging develops over the eastern Continental U.S. And western Atlantic and 500mb jet 
retreats poleward. This will lead to warm and more humid 
conditions...with potential for scattered thunderstorms and rain...at times...as we are 
on the southern periphery of impulses moving by in the stronger 500 mb 
flow to our north. 


Sunday night will be about 5-10f warmer than tonight under mainly 
clear skies with lows in the middle-upper 40s in the mountains and low-middle 
50s closer to the coast. Monday should start off mainly 
sunny...but will see middle-high clouds move in from the west during 
the afternoon. Theres a slight chance for a shower in the mountains in the 
afternoon...but the real threat of any rain holds until Monday night. 


Decent middle-level warm air advection will move through Monday night into Tuesday 
morning...and should produce a period of rain or some convective 
showers during this timeframe. Dew points rise quickly behind this warm 
front shooting up into the middle 50s to low 60s. Southern zones should 
break out into sun fairly early ion the day and will see highs 
soar into the low-middle 80s here..with 70s elsewhere as clouds 
linger through the morning. Wednesday-Thursday will be warm and humid...with 
highs in the 80s inland...and in the 70s on the coast. Models move 
a wave or two over the top of the ridge...so there will be the 
threat of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain in the northern zones. 


Better chance for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will be at the end of the week and into 
Sat as models try to break the ridge down with some weak waves in 
the 500 mb flow. The Euro holds the ridging and warm air in place 
across northern New England through next weekend. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
short term...VFR conditions to prevail through sun. Northwest wind gusts of 
25 kts are possible through this afternoon at all terminals. Westerly wind 
gusts of 20 to 25 kts are possible again sun. 


Long term...VFR Sun night and Monday. Flight restrictions are 
expected Monday night into at least Tuesday morning in showers and 
lowering ceilings...with a return to VFR Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue over the waters until 
this evening when winds and seas begin to gradually diminish. 


Long term...SW flow persists Monday through Wednesday and could flare to 
near Small Craft Advisory levels Monday afternoon and evening. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
very dry air mass will be in place today...with relative humidity 
values dropping below 20 percent by afternoon. Gusty northwest 
winds of 15 to 20 miles per hour will create some dangerous fire behavior 
conditions. Green up is underway...but recent dry weather will 
ensure that fine fuels remain ready to burn. There will be some 
relative humidity recovery tonight...but similar conditions 
Sunday could lead to elevated fire danger again. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for mez012>014. 
Red flag warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for 
mez007>009-012>014-018>028. 
Freeze warning until 8 am EDT this morning for mez007>009. 
New Hampshire...frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for nhz006-008-009- 
011-015. 
Red flag warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for 
nhz004-006>015. 
Freeze warning until 8 am EDT this morning for nhz001>005-007. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for 
anz150>154. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...legro 
short term...legro 
long term...cempa 
aviation...cempa/legro 
marine...cempa/legro 
fire weather...legro 






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