Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
307 PM EDT sun may 29 2016 


Synopsis... 
a front stalled to our south will return north as a warm front 
early Monday. This front will be preceded by showers and a few 
thunderstorms through Monday morning. A warm humid air mass will 
follow the warm front on Monday afternoon with another round of 
showers and thunderstorms expected. Tropical moisture from the 
remnants of Bonnie will be entrained in the frontal system and 
could produce heavy rainfall and localized drainage flooding on 
Memorial Day. Two cold fronts will cross the area Monday and 
Tuesday night with high pressure and drier air to follow Wednesday 
and Thursday. An upper level trough could produce some rain Friday 
or Saturday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
at 18z a 1005 millibar low was centered over the upper Great 
Lakes with a warm/stationary front extending southeast through 
southern New England. To the north of this frontal boundary... 
easterly flow persisted with extensive low cloud found across the 
forecast area. With the exception of the upper Connecticut valley...GOES 
visible imagery showed broken to overcast conditions across the 
forecast area. National Weather Service Doppler radar mosaic showed a broken area of 
convection along and to the north of the 850 millibar warm front 
with activity impacting northern and mountain sections at moment. 
Additional activity over western New England could reach the 
Connecticut valley this evening. For tonight...the stalled front 
begins to push northward...but it won't clear most of our northern 
and eastern forecast area until tomorrow afternoon as southwest 
flow in the low levels increases towards dawn. Convection will 
gradually increase in coverage overnight as overrunning increases. 


&& 


Short term /Monday through Monday night/... 
as mentioned above...the warm front will work north and east 
across much of Maine and extreme northern New Hampshire on Monday 
morning leaving the entire forecast area in the warm sector by 
Monday afternoon. Monday morning will feature an area of showers 
and thunderstorms that will push north and east and taper to 
scattered showers and thunderstorms following the warm frontal 
passage. We'll warm into the 70s...with the exception of midcoast 
Maine because of the onshore trajectory...and it'll be a humid day 
with dewpoints rising into the 60s. We should see sufficient 
heating from the Connecticut valley northward through the Maine 
mountains and foothills for scattered showers and thunderstorms to 
developing during the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Locally 
heavy rainfall will be possible as tropical moisture from the remnants 
of Bonnie will be entrained into the frontal system. A few of the 
stronger cells could also produce gusty winds. Any lingering 
convection will end by late Monday evening as the cold front 
sweeps offshore. Low level moisture and clearing skies should 
result in areas of fog Monday night behind the departing frontal 
system. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 
high impact wx: none expected. 


Models continue to trend toward a more zonal jet that will reside 
just N of the US/Canada border. Will see one low wave exiting at 
the start of the long range, and another moving in at the end of 
the week, with ridging in between. Although 850 mb temps will 
generally be above normal, a lack of decent low level flow will 
allow onshore flow to develop, and keep sfc temps closer to 
normal, or even below normal, along the coast. 


The warmest day will be Tuesday, as will have to wait for upper 
level trough to drag the secondary cold front through the cwa, 
which will lower humidity and cool things down a bit. Still, highs 
on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Might see a few 
showers or storms across the far nrn zones...but weak dynamics and 
lack of instability should prevent much else from happening with 
the fropa. 


Wednesday and Thursday should be fair. Both days will feature a 
sea breeze, but Thursday will see the marine lyr move further 
inland as there will be an onshore pres gradient. Highs Wed will 
be from 70-80, and on Thursday mid 60s on the coast to mid-upper 
70s further inland. Overnight lows Wed and Thu night will be in 
the mid 40s to mid 50s, fairly close to normal. 


500 mb trough approaches from the west Friday and moves into New 
England on Sat. Models are lingering remnant tropical system off 
the Carolina coast through most of the week before it gets picked 
up by that trough. A lot of what happens with the front will 
depend on that, and confidence is low in this regard. Have chancepops 
in the forecast for Fri and Fri night, but just kept slight for 
Sat, which leans toward the European model (ecmwf). 




&& 


Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/... 
short term /through 12z Tuesday/...MVFR and local IFR tonight in 
ceilings and fog along with sct -shra/ and isold -tsra. On 
Mon...conds improve to VFR throughout btw 12 and 16z following a 
warm frontal passage with areas of MVFR btw 18z and 02z Tue in 
shra/tsra. Areas of MVFR and LCL IFR aft 06z Tue in valley stratus 
and fog. 


Long term...mainly VFR, with the exception of possible Vly fog 
Wed and Thu night. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /through Monday night/...winds and seas expected to 
remain below Small Craft Advisory threshold. However...there will be periodic vsby 
restrictions in fog, haze, and thunderstorms through Monday 
evening. 


Long term...may see some winds approach Small Craft Advisory Tuesday afternoon, but 
otherwise, fairly quiet on the waters through the rest of the 
week. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
cool...onshore flow will dominate most of the area into tonight. 
Relative humidity values will remain moderate to high region-wide. 
On Mon tropical moisture associated with Bonnie will stream into 
the area. Showers are likely...with some possibly heavy at times. 
A wetting rain looks most likely across southern areas. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Near/short term...schwibs 
long term...cempa 






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