Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
1012 PM EDT Monday Mar 30 2015 


Synopsis... 
a secondary cold front will cross the region tonight and will push 
offshore by Tuesday morning. High pressure will gradually build in 
from the northwest Tuesday through Wednesday. High pressure will 
crest over the region Wednesday night and will shift offshore on 
Thursday as a warm front approaches from the southwest. The warm 
front will be quickly followed by a cold front early Friday. The 
front will stall south of the area Friday and low pressure will 
track northeast along it Friday night and Saturday. Another area 
of low pressure crossing southern Canada Saturday night will drive 
a cold front through the region by Sunday morning. High pressure 
will build in from the west behind the front on Sunday. 


&& 


Near term /until 7 am Tuesday morning/... 
10 PM update...downsloping behind the front has cleared out 
clouds south and east of the mountains...so updated sky cover 
based on latest satellite. Upslope snow showers will continue in 
the mountains during the overnight hours. Temperatures were also 
updated based on latest observation and trends...with clearing south of 
the mountains...these areas will radiate quite nicely so adjusted 
low temperatures a bit lower than previously forecasted. 


7 PM update...did a quick update to sky and temperatures based on current 
observation/trends and satellite data. Also boosted pop in the mountains 
where upslope snow showers can be expected into the morning hours. 


Previous discussion... 
precipitation associated with the 1st in a series of cold fronts 
will be departing the forecast area to the east late this 
afternoon. May see some breaks in the overcast developing during 
the evening hours downwind of the mountains but clouds will once 
again be on the increase toward midnight as a secondary cold 
front swings through the region. Expect much of the area to see a 
dry night but snow showers will continue in the mountains 
overnight and into Tuesday morning where an inch or two of 
accumulation will be possible. Overnight lows will generally range 
through the 20s from north to south. 


&& 


Short term /7 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/... 
skies will clear early Tuesday setting up a mostly sunny day 
across the forecast area as high pressure builds in from the 
northwest. Sunshine and downsloping winds will help boost temperatures 
into the lower to middle 40s in southern and central Maine and New 
Hampshire. Highs will range through the 30s in the north. 


Tuesday night looking mostly clear and quiet as high pressure 
continues to build in from the west. Low temperatures will dip to between 
5 and 10 degrees north and will range through the teens to lower 
20s south. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Monday/... 
a progressive pattern will develop through the week. 


On Wednesday the colder air and trough will move out of our area. 
As it does a weak storm will pass through southern New England, 
brining cloud cover into the southern portion of our area. Clear 
skies to the north will allow for overnight temperatures to once 
again fall into the single digits in the north and middle 20s south. 


By Thursday morning temperatures will begin to warm aloft as an 
upper level ridge builds into the region. Southerly flow will 
develop around a high situated off the Carolina coast. For New 
Hampshire south of The Notches and the CT River Valley this south 
flow will allow temperatures to climb to near 50. Along the Maine 
coast from Portland through Penobscot Bay that same south wind 
will flow over the 37 degree ocean, keeping temperatures below 40 
for the immediate coast. 


Friday will see more warming... with southern New Hampshire reaching 60 
degrees. A cold front will approach from the west through the late 
afternoon bringing showers. That front will stall across the 
region Friday night before another low redevelops along it on 
Saturday. Still a bit of a spread on timing with the showers, 
front looks to stall off shore which would keep just southern 
sections in rain showers while the mountains see just clouds, 
however exact location is a bit suspect and would not be surprised 
to see the mountains hold onto the rain a bit longer. No matter 
the timing, the result is an extended period of showers Friday 
night into Saturday. With warm temperatures Friday... it will fall as 
rain for all but the highest summits. But as the cold front moves 
further through on Saturday afternoon cold air will switch the 
precipitation over to upslope snow showers in the mountains. Sunday will 
see colder high pressure again move into the region for the start 
of next week. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
short term...00z update...cold front will be pushing offshore 
tonight and all areas should return to VFR other than hie where 
upslope snow showers will continue into the early morning hours. 


Previous discussion...areas of MVFR ceilings/visibility early this 
evening... improving to VFR. VFR Tuesday through Tuesday night. 


Long term... conditions will deteriorate to IFR on Thursday 
night... with LIFR in fog possible for coastal sites. Will see a 
mix of MVFR and IFR through the day on Friday before returning to 
VFR late Saturday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...sca's in effect through early Tuesday afternoon. 


Long term...Small Craft Advisory possible for the outer waters Thursday into 
Friday. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Tuesday for anz150>154. 


&& 


$$ 
Near term...kistner 
aviation...kistner 






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