999 
fxus61 kgyx 241012 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
512 am EST Tue Jan 24 2017 


Synopsis... 
a storm system tracking up the coast will bring wintry 
precipitation to the area today into tonight. A cold upper trough 
will remain over the area through the latter part of the week with 
a return to colder temperatures. Scattered snow showers in the 
mountains and foothills can be expected through the latter part of 
the week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
510 am update: mixed ptype has changed to all freezing rain over southeast 
New Hampshire and southwest coastal ME and adjacent inland areas, so have 
changed the headlines from winter wx advisories to freezing rain 
advisories. Up to a .25 inch of ice accretion possible through 
the morning across these areas. 


Previous discussion: 
the center of the coastal low south of the southern New England 
coast will continue deepening as it moves northeast into the Gulf 
of Maine this afternoon. A mixed bag of snow sleet and freezing 
rain has already overspread New Hampshire and southern/central ME. Models 
continue to agree on tracking the low over or just east of the 
40n/70w benchmark which keeps on the north side of the low with a 
continued north to northeast wind keeping cold air damming 
drainage winds across the area. BUFKIT sounding profiles show a 
deep warm layer pushing west aloft in the 5000-9000 ft heights 
while cold air with temps just below freezing will reamin at the 
surface. Along southern and coastal areas the mixed bag will go 
over the freezing rain and then eventually rain especially along 
the coast. Further inland after some light snow/sleet 
accumulations the ptype should become more of a freezing rain 
event. Ran numerous scenerios of model possibilities using various 
forecast tools and many of them are pointing to more of a freezing 
rain event as the day moves forward. Surface temps will be 
difficult to reach above freezing over all inland areas. Ice 
accumulations over many inalnd areas may range between .25 to .35 
inches which may cause some power outages. All winter weather 
advisories will remain in place and some over southern New Hampshire were 
extended in time into the late morning. Total quantitative precipitation forecast will range from 
near one inch in the mountains to over 2 inches along the coast. 


During the morning some consideration will need to be made to 
change the winter weather advisories to freezing rain advisories. 
If trends continue it could be possible to consider that we may 
end up in an ice storm situation in some the areas well inland. 


Winds along the coast will become strong and gusts to near 40 mph. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Wednesday/... 
the low moves into the Gulf of Maine tonight but plenty of 
wraparound qpf occurs into central and northern areas well into 
the evening with light amounts continuing elsewhere. Will probably 
need to extend some headlines further into the evening due to some 
icing concerns. Temps will remain at or below freezing the rest of 
tonight. 


Wednesday conditions finally improve as the low moves well to the 
northeast. As the low pulls away, temps will become mild as 
clearing occurs from southwest to northeast. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/... 
quiet weather is expected through much of the extended forecast. A 
weak low pressure system will quickly move through the region Wed 
night and Thu with some light snow or mixed precip. 


&& 


Aviation /10z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
short term /through Tuesday/...IFR/LIFR conditions today into 
tonight in precipitation. Freezing rain will become more of a 
concern over much of the area during the day as warm air moves in 
aloft. The areas of snow/sleet this morning well inland will 
gradually change to freezing rain with ice accumulations expected. 
Along the coast northeast winds will gust up to 35 kts during the 
day with less wind further inland. 


Long term...mainly VFR expected Wednesday night into the the 
weekend. MVFR conditions in light mixed precipitation possibly 
Thursday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /through Tuesday/...storm and gale warnings remain in 
effect for today into tonight. Strongest winds and highest seas 
will occur this morning. Seas will build to the 500mb hemispheric 
pattern, continues to trend away from its chaotic split flow to 
something, eventually, that resembles a +pna pattern, if not quite 
getting there. Still, it looks to be more stable, but colder, 
especially over the weekend into next week. For days 5-7, the 
trend is more toward normal, which is colder, but beyond that we 
could see below normal temps sometime next week. 




Long term...Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected Wed night - Thu. 


&& 


Tides/coastal flooding... 
despite being in the low portion of our 
astronomical tide cycle, large building waves may produce some 
erosion and splash-over south of Portland near the times of high 
tide this morning. Farther south, the seacoast of New Hampshire 
may see water levels rise to near flood stage. Preliminary storm 
surge values appear to be around 1.5 to 2 feet with a persistent, 
strong easterly wind developing. A coastal flood advisory and 
coastal flood statement have been issued. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for 
mez007-008-012>014-020-021. 
Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for mez018- 
019. 
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for 
mez022-025>028. 
Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for 
mez023-024. 
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for mez009. 
Coastal flood advisory until 10 am EST this morning for mez023. 
New Hampshire...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for 
nhz004-006. 
Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for nhz007>009- 
011-012-015. 
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for 
nhz001>003-005. 
Freezing Rain Advisory until noon EST today for nhz010-013-014. 
Coastal flood advisory until 10 am EST this morning for nhz014. 
Marine...Gale Warning until 11 am EST this morning for anz151-153. 
Storm Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for anz150-152-154. 


&& 






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