Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
323 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014 


Synopsis... 


Low pressure moving through the Gulf of Maine will push off to the 
north and east tonight. As northerly flow develops tomorrow it 
will bring gusty winds and much drier conditions to the region. 
High pressure will build over the area Thursday night. High 
pressure will move off to the east Friday. Low pressure and a 
trailing frontal system will approach from the west Friday night 
then slowly cross the region Saturday before heading into the 
Maritimes on Sunday. A weak area of high pressure builds in on 
Monday. Low pressure moving in from the southwest brings a threat 
of rain Tuesday and Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... 
low pressure currently moving through the Gulf of Maine will 
continue to generate showers along coastal areas through the 
evening hours. Expect to see some clearing overnight...especially 
in areas the may experience some downsloping. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/... 
as low pressure system begins to pull off to the east and north 
late tonight and tomorrow morning we will see a tight pressure 
gradient move over northern New England. This will couple with 
cold air advection to produce some very gusty winds. Expect winds 
to gust to around 40mph at most locations...with some gusts to 
45mph over higher terrain. Think they should hold just shy of 
advisory criteria. See the fire weather section for discussion on 
dew points and relative humidity values. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Wednesday/... 
models move high pressure quickly off to the east Friday...but still 
keep US dry through much of the day...though some showers may arrive 
late in the day over New Hampshire. Low pressure and a trailing frontal system 
will approach from the west Friday night then slowly cross the 
region Saturday before heading into the Maritimes on Sunday. This 
will spread prcp across the region from west to east Friday night and continue 
through Saturday night. Prcp ends from SW to NE Sunday. A weak area 
of high pressure builds in Sunday night and Monday giving US a brief 
break in prcp. Low pressure moving in from the SW brings a threat of 
rain Tuesday /most likely later in the day/ and Wednesday. 


Used a blend of various models...previous forecast and climatology for 
the long term forecast. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/... 
short term...expect VFR conditions through the period with the 
possibility of some low level wind shear tomorrow...especially in 
the afternoon. 


Long term /Friday through Monday/...IFR conditions possible in 
periods of showers late Friday through Saturday night...with showers 
ending and conditions improving from SW to NE on Sunday. 




&& 


Marine... 
short term...northerly flow on the back side of exiting low 
pressure will generate gale force winds over the waters tomorrow 
before subsiding tomorrow night. 


Long term /Friday through Monday/...northwest flow picks up behind 
departing surface low and fnt Sunday through Monday with Small Craft Advisory wind gusts 
possible. Seas may reach minimal Small Craft Advisory levels over the outer waters 
as well. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
pressure gradient will tighten up dramatically tomorrow over 
northern New England. Expect widespread wind gusts to 40 miles per hour. The 
winds will also usher in much drier air. Locations over southern 
New Hampshire will likely meet meteorological red flag criteria. 
However...New Hampshire Forest service is telling US that fuels 
are still too wet to burn so we will hold off on a Fire Weather 
Watch for now. Expect afternoon relative humidity values to drop 
to between 20 and 30 percent tomorrow. Will mention fire weather 
concerns in the severe weather potential statement also. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for 
anz150>154. 


&& 


$$ 


Pohl/capriola 








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