Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
926 PM EDT Friday Aug 1 2014 


Synopsis... 
high pressure builds in from the east tonight and lifts north 
tomorrow morning. A warm front lifts north from the middle Atlantic 
tonight and will stall off the New England coast on Saturday. 
Several areas of weak low pressure will track northeast along the 
front over the weekend. The front will shift east Sunday night and 
Monday as weak high pressure builds in from the west. A weak cold 
front pushes in from the northwest Tuesday night. High pressure 
builds in from the west Wednesday through Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /through Saturday/... 
update... 
have updated the grids based on current radar/observational 
trends. A few weak showers continue to pop up over southernmost New Hampshire 
or the offshore waters at times...but quickly dissipate in a 
stabilizing environment. 


However...as winds back late tonight and Saturday aloft...some of the 
precipitation over southern New England and the middle Atlantic region will 
begin to spread northward over time. The GFS and somewhat the 
latest mesoscale models are somewhat agressive with the northern 
extent of any precipitation over southern portions of New Hampshire later 
tonight and into SW Maine by Saturday...with a couple other models 
in a drier Camp. Will compromise with the timing of any increased 
probability of precipitation late tonight into Saturday morning. Have coordinated probability of precipitation 
with weather forecast office box. 


Previous disc... 
scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms now 
drifting into the southern counties of New Hampshire and these will be 
typical of the convection we will see this afternoon/evening over 
New Hampshire and SW Maine in weak isentropic lift as a warm front nears from 
the south. Expect other showers to develop over the New Hampshire and western 
Maine mountains with the help of daytime heating and upper level 
support as upper trough nears. This activity will dissipate after 
dark. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s with 
increasing cloud cover. Expect spots of dense fog overnight and 
early tomorrow morning especially in the CT River Valley and in 
spots that get a heavy shower tonight. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday night/... 
the warm front stalls just south of the Gulf of Maine but will be 
near enough to support shower activity offshore and along the 
coast tomorrow as low pressure lifts north along the middle Atlantic 
region. Elsewhere...orographic lift and continued spokes of upper 
level energy will keep scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms in the mountains and foothills. Inland areas will 
have less of a chance of precipitation...but increased precipitable waters  will 
keep the chance of a shower in everywhere. Highs reach the middle to 
upper 70s with the warmest readings inland. Saturday night skies 
remain cloudy but shower activity dies with the loss of daytime 
heating. Expect lows in the middle 50s. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Friday/... 
any remaining rain showers from weak coastal wave will quickly end Sun 
morning. Weak high pressure will build in...with mean troffing to our 
west. This combination will remain in place for several days. The 
broad SW flow through the column will promote warm temperatures...with 
moderate humidity. As a result each afternoon...peak heating 
should yield scattered thunderstorms. These will mainly be tied to the terrain 
heating in the absence of large scale forcing. 


Trough axis will cross the region Wednesday or Thursday...with a more 
concentrated threat for convection. Forcing will be stronger...so 
will have to monitor frontal timing along with advection of 
steeper lapse rates from the west. If we can get some near 7 c/km 
lapse rates aloft...there would be a severe threat with this 
frontal passage. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
short term...clouds will increase and thicken overnight as a warm 
front nears from the south. Most terminals will see at least brief 
MVFR or lower conditions in fog with mountain terminals and 
anywhere receiving rain this evening the most likely locations. 
South winds will become light and variable or calm overnight with 
light south winds returning through early tomorrow afternoon. 
Light showers should begin to spread from west to east beginning 
late in the morning/early afternoon. 


Long term...VFR conditions to prevail for the majority of the 
extended. Broad SW flow will promote afternoon rain showers/thunderstorms most 
days...with local MVFR or lower conditions possible. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...winds and seas will stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria. 


Long term...winds and seas will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory 
thresholds. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 



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