Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
836 am EST Sat Nov 28 2015 

high pressure moves in behind a cold front today with cooler 
temperatures. The high remains over the region through early next 
week. The next chance of precipitation will come towards the 
middle of next week with a potential storm system moving east from 
the Great Lakes. 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
830 am update...still a broad area of rain across the southern 
forecast area so adjusted pop to account for this. The front will 
continue to drift southward and current thinking is that the 
showers will be out of the area within the next 2 hours. 

6 am update...cold front is offshore and temperatures continue to 
fall. Have adjusted probability of precipitation a bit for the next few hours based on 
latest trends and coverage of rain shield. This shield of rain 
will affect southern zones over the next several hours. 


A cold front will move off the coast by 5 am. Unfortunately this 
front has anafrontal characteristics which means clouds and shower 
activity will linger long after the surface front moves offshore. 
High temperatures for the day have already been reached...and we 
expect the readings to fall through the morning hours. Highest 
probability of precipitation for rain showers today /high chance to likely/ will be 
across our central and southern zones where belt of moisture and 
weak ascent remain in the wake of the surface front. While clouds will 
linger across the southern half of the County Warning Area today...improvement is 
foreseen across northern and eastern zones where sun should be 
seen today. The sun should come out late this afternoon even 
across southern zones. 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/... 
high pressure will continue to build into the region tonight. 
Cold and fair weather is expected as a result. A secondary cold 
front will move across the region Sunday with little 
fanfare...perhaps a period of clouds. However...colder weather 
will follow in its wake...along with the possibility of some gusty 
winds late in the day. 


Long term /Sunday night through Friday/... 
northwest flow aloft brings a large and cold Canadian high pressure 
system south into the area Sun night. This surface high becomes 
centered over northern New England Monday before moving offshore 
Tuesday. Fair and below normal temperatures are expected early in the 
week. The nights will be very cold with clear skies and calm winds 
allowing radiational cooling. By late Tuesday this high moves off the 
coast due to an approaching upper low approaching the Great Lakes. 
Warm air advection overrunning precipitation begins to develop late Tuesday night in advance 
of this system. Ptype at the onset may be tricky where the r/S 
line develops but during the day Wednesday with boundary layer temperatures 
move above critical levels so any mixed precipitation should change to 
rain except in the mountains where some cold air being trapped may 
allow a mix to continue. Models still differ some but prefer to 
stick with slower and more closed low scenario of the Euro as it 
moves across northern New England. On Thursday the cold air advection returns on the 
back side of the system so any precipitation will change back to snow 
showers. Some light accumulations of snow possible in the 
mountains before ending Thursday night. Another broad area of high 
pressure returns for Friday with dry and seasonable temperatures. 

Stayed very close to superblend but made some adjustments higher 
for temperatures late Tuesday night through Wednesday night which affected ptype over 
to rain vs the somewhat colder scenario using the superblend. 


Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
short term...VFR conditions will be the main theme through about 
18z-19z or so as band of clouds and showers slowly sags southward 
through our region in the wake of a cold front. VFR conditions are 
expected later on this afternoon through Sunday. 

Long term...VFR conditions Monday and Tuesday. Mixed precipitation 
arrives Tuesday night and then changes to rain Wednesday except 
remaining a mix in the mountains. Conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday 
will become IFR. 


short term...small craft conditions will continue today on the 
ocean waters...mainly for seas at or above 5 feet. On the 
bays...expect any Small Craft Advisory conditions to subside this morning. May need 
small crafts once again late Sunday afternoon as winds pick up 
again in association with another cold front. 

Long term...strong cold air advection continues into Sun night so Small Craft Advisory conditions 
are likely over the outer waters but should subside by Monday morning 
as high pressure settles over the area with winds becoming light 
and seas subsiding. 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for anz151- 
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for anz150- 


near term...kistner 
short term... 
long term... 

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