Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
638 PM EDT Friday Apr 24 2015 


Synopsis... 
low pressure will meander over the the Maine and New Brunswick 
through the weekend and into early next week. It will produce cool 
and unsettled weather. The low pressure will shift offshore 
Tuesday...with high pressure building in on Wednesday. Another low 
moves in from the southwest late next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/... 
638 PM update...have increased probability of precipitation a little bit across the Maine 
foothills and the western Maine mountains for this evening as 
light snow /some light rain at lower elevations/ continues to fall 
with minor accumulations. Otherwise...variable clouds for the rest 
of the region. Later on tonight another spoke of vorticity will 
rotate southward around the part upper low and provide some 
enhancement to the precipitation...especially locations adjacent 
to the Canadian border. These areas may pick up a few more inches 
of snow overnight. 


Previously... 


Closed upper low will continue meander over northern New England 
overnight and into Saturday. Next in a series of weak disturbances 
will settle into northern zones overnight with snow likely in the 
mountains. Could see an inch or two of wet snow...especially in 
the higher terrain. Downwind of the mountains from eastern New 
Hampshire through southwest Maine variable cloudiness will 
prevail. Expect much of the Connecticut valley and west central 
New Hampshire to remain mostly cloudy. Lows will range from the 
upper 20s to middle 30s from north to south. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/... 
weak surface trough forecast to drop south from the mountains 
Saturday morning. Any Morning Sun will quickly give way to mostly 
cloudy skies with scattered rain or snow showers. Expect this 
activity to die out in the afternoon as the trough pushes 
offshore. High temperatures will range from the middle 40s north to the middle 
50s south. 


Skies will once again remain mostly cloudy in the north with 
variable cloudiness elsewhere Saturday night. Low temperatures will 
range through the 30s. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Friday/... 
500 mb double barrel closed low will be situated across the northestern 
Continental U.S. And Maritimes on Sunday...and will go through several 
fujiwara wobbles as it shifts slowly eastward through the middle of next 
week. This will keep US in cool and unsettled conds through 
Tuesday...with maxes running 5-10 f below normal through Tuesday. On 
wave will be pushing from NE-SW around the upper low on Sun 
morning...and this will bring a chance for rain showers during the day 
Sunday. 


Models seem to be agree that a more significant wave...which 
closed off off the eastern side of the 500mb low and drags it southward 
out of the Maritimes and into eastern ME Monday into Monday night. This 
looks to be the best timeframe for more widespread 
rain showers...although the GFS/Euro/CMC still varying by about 12 hours 
or so. By Wednesday...GFS/Euro start to build some ridging into the area 
for the middle of the week...so may see more sun and seasonably 
mild temperatures by then. Another trough digs southward toward the end of next 
week...and could produce some rain showers again by Friday...although this 
system may be more progressive and move through quickly. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
short term...VFR tonight through Saturday night with areas of 
MVFR ceilings/visibility in the mountains. 


Long term...VFR...with periods of MVFR in rain showers sun and Sun night. 
Looks like predominant MVFR...with occnl IFR Monday into Monday night in 
more widespread rain showers. Some MVFR conds may linger into Tuesday...with 
VFR expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...a few 25 knots gusts tonight. Otherwise...no flags. 


Long term...mostly quiet on the waters. Could southeast winds briefly 
approach Small Craft Advisory Tuesday into Tuesday night. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
cool weather with scattered rain or snow showers 
and moderate relative humidities will continue into the weekend. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term update...ekster 






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