Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
909 PM EDT Thursday Oct 30 2014 


Synopsis... 
high pressure builds over New England tonight and then shifts to 
the east on Friday. A large system in the upper atmosphere will 
produce a series of coastal lows over the weekend...and will 
bring rain to the region Saturday...which could change to snow 
Saturday night in some areas and accumulate by Sunday morning. 
High pressure builds in for early next week. 


&& 


Near term /through Friday/... 
---900pm update--- 
temperatures continue to fall this evening but should slow down 
some over the next few hours before bottoming out in the upper 20s 
to lower 30s. No major changes expected to the forecast for 
tonight. 


---640pm update--- 
rather quiet night in store for northern New England. Weak 
perturbations moving through zonal flow aloft will keep 
intermittant clouds in place across the region. Current 
temperatures are a little bit cooler than forecast by one or two 
degrees. Will update to adjust them for current trends. 
Otherwise...no changes necessary. 


/Previous discussion.../ 
3 PM...upslope/downslope effects continue 
this afternoon answer will start to wane this evening as surface high 
builds in and northwest flow drops off...but unlikely clouds will not 
disappear completely...especially in the mountains...as flow aloft 
remains a little unsettled. So look for skies to become mostly 
clear from the foothills to the coast and partly cloudy late in 
the mountains mind drop into the 30 to 40 range. 


&& 


Short term /Friday night/... 
surface high shifts NE on Friday answer coastal low develops off the 
Carolinas. This will allow for our flow to shift NE which will 
keep maxes several degrees cooler than today...in the upper 40s 
to lower 50s mostly. The day will start partly to mostly 
sunny...but look for clouds to overspread the region in the 
afternoon from both the S and the west as two surface lows 
approach...one form the west and one form the S. Despite the 
clouds...it will remain dry trough Friday evening. 


Could see some rain showers/-ra/dz move in from the coastal low late Friday 
night...mainly across the coast and southern New Hampshire. Mins should occur 
around midnight...with temperatures rising before daybreak and lows will 
be in the middle 30s north to low 40s S. Any signif precipitation looks to hold 
off until after sunrise Sat. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Thursday/... 
the main forecast challenge continues to be the evolution of a 
storm system moving from off the Middle Atlantic States Saturday and 
into the Maritimes Sunday. The evolution of the system as a whole 
continues to be quite tricky as there remains at least two if not 
three strong short wave troughs with short wavelengths that round 
the mean trough. This is allowing shifts in the models from run to 
run in the quantitative precipitation forecast forecast across our area depending on which short 
wave dominates. As of right now...the European model (ecmwf) and GFS are in pretty 
good agreement with bringing a slug of precipitation across our 
area...mainly the coastal plain Saturday afternoon and evening 
with the lead short wave. Have therefore gone with likely/Cat probability of precipitation 
across southern and coastal zones during this time. 
Thereafter...the rest of the energy should miss US to the east 
resulting in a dry scenario after midnight Saturday night through 
Sunday. However...still some uncertainty and changeability with 
this scenario given the complicated short wave setup. 


Much of the precipitation should be in the form of rain Sat and 
Sat night given boundary layer temperatures that should be a 
little too warm for snow. However...a change to snow is possible 
for a few hours toward the end. Across the mountains...a few 
inches of snow could fall depending on how far west any 
precipitation band makes it. Will have to continue to monitor. 


In any case...the wind should be the main issue later Saturday 
night and Sunday as the low strengthens and departs. A Wind 
Advisory may be needed for Sunday. 


Thereafter...quieter and warmer weather is likely. A cold front 
may bring Chancy rain end of week. 


&& 


Aviation /01z Friday through Tuesday/... 
short term...MVFR expected through early Sat morning. Could see 
coastal terminals drop to IFR before daybreak Sat in low 
clouds/-ra/dz. 


Long term...IFR conditions possible in rain and snow Saturday 
afternoon and evening before improving to VFR late Sat night and 
Sunday. Northwest wind gusts around 40 miles per hour likely later Sat night and 
Sunday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...winds/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Friday evening. NE 
winds start to pick up after midnight Sat am...and could get to 
Small Craft Advisory levels by sunrise Sat. 


Long term...a developing coastal storm will affect the waters over 
the weekend. There remains some uncertainty in storm track. 
Currently the storm passes outside the 40n/70w benchmark. However 
gales appear likely over the bays with storm force gusts possible 
over the outer waters Sat night and Sunday. Seas will also climb 
to 8-15 feet in the outer waters. Winds and seas diminish below 
small craft criteria by Monday night or early Tuesday. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Pohl 






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