Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 836 am EST Sat Nov 28 2015 Synopsis... high pressure moves in behind a cold front today with cooler temperatures. The high remains over the region through early next week. The next chance of precipitation will come towards the middle of next week with a potential storm system moving east from the Great Lakes. && Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 830 am update...still a broad area of rain across the southern forecast area so adjusted pop to account for this. The front will continue to drift southward and current thinking is that the showers will be out of the area within the next 2 hours. 6 am update...cold front is offshore and temperatures continue to fall. Have adjusted probability of precipitation a bit for the next few hours based on latest trends and coverage of rain shield. This shield of rain will affect southern zones over the next several hours. Previously... A cold front will move off the coast by 5 am. Unfortunately this front has anafrontal characteristics which means clouds and shower activity will linger long after the surface front moves offshore. High temperatures for the day have already been reached...and we expect the readings to fall through the morning hours. Highest probability of precipitation for rain showers today /high chance to likely/ will be across our central and southern zones where belt of moisture and weak ascent remain in the wake of the surface front. While clouds will linger across the southern half of the County Warning Area today...improvement is foreseen across northern and eastern zones where sun should be seen today. The sun should come out late this afternoon even across southern zones. && Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Sunday/... high pressure will continue to build into the region tonight. Cold and fair weather is expected as a result. A secondary cold front will move across the region Sunday with little fanfare...perhaps a period of clouds. However...colder weather will follow in its wake...along with the possibility of some gusty winds late in the day. && Long term /Sunday night through Friday/... northwest flow aloft brings a large and cold Canadian high pressure system south into the area Sun night. This surface high becomes centered over northern New England Monday before moving offshore Tuesday. Fair and below normal temperatures are expected early in the week. The nights will be very cold with clear skies and calm winds allowing radiational cooling. By late Tuesday this high moves off the coast due to an approaching upper low approaching the Great Lakes. Warm air advection overrunning precipitation begins to develop late Tuesday night in advance of this system. Ptype at the onset may be tricky where the r/S line develops but during the day Wednesday with boundary layer temperatures move above critical levels so any mixed precipitation should change to rain except in the mountains where some cold air being trapped may allow a mix to continue. Models still differ some but prefer to stick with slower and more closed low scenario of the Euro as it moves across northern New England. On Thursday the cold air advection returns on the back side of the system so any precipitation will change back to snow showers. Some light accumulations of snow possible in the mountains before ending Thursday night. Another broad area of high pressure returns for Friday with dry and seasonable temperatures. Stayed very close to superblend but made some adjustments higher for temperatures late Tuesday night through Wednesday night which affected ptype over to rain vs the somewhat colder scenario using the superblend. && Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/... short term...VFR conditions will be the main theme through about 18z-19z or so as band of clouds and showers slowly sags southward through our region in the wake of a cold front. VFR conditions are expected later on this afternoon through Sunday. Long term...VFR conditions Monday and Tuesday. Mixed precipitation arrives Tuesday night and then changes to rain Wednesday except remaining a mix in the mountains. Conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday will become IFR. && Marine... short term...small craft conditions will continue today on the ocean waters...mainly for seas at or above 5 feet. On the bays...expect any Small Craft Advisory conditions to subside this morning. May need small crafts once again late Sunday afternoon as winds pick up again in association with another cold front. Long term...strong cold air advection continues into Sun night so Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely over the outer waters but should subside by Monday morning as high pressure settles over the area with winds becoming light and seas subsiding. && Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... ME...none. New Hampshire...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for anz151- 153. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for anz150- 152-154. && $$ Synopsis... near term...kistner short term... long term... aviation... marine...
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