Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
304 am EDT Friday Jul 29 2016 


Synopsis... 
a weak frontal boundary was stalled from central New England 
through the Gulf of Maine. This front will slowly slip further 
offshore today as low pressure tracks east along it. A secondary 
cold front extended from northern Maine through the Saint Lawrence 
valley. These boundaries will produce a few showers and isolated 
thunderstorms across the area today. The best chance for a steadier 
and heavier rain will be across far southern New Hampshire and southwest 
coastal Maine. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures return for the 
weekend with dry conditions Saturday and another chance for showers 
on Sunday into Monday. Mainly dry weather with a gradual warming 
trend is expected for Tuesday through much of next week. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
at 06z...a stalled frontal boundary extended from central New 
England through the Gulf of Maine. A secondary cold front 
extended from the rooftop of Maine through the Saint Lawrence 
valley. GOES water vapor imagery showed a shortwave impulse racing 
east-northeast across the mid Atlantic states. For today...a weak 
wave will ride northeast along the stalled boundary to our south 
and east. The steadiest showers and embedded thunder with this 
impulse will brush southern New Hampshire into adjacent southwest 
Maine this morning. Otherwise...the secondary cold front just 
north of the international border will gradually drop southeast 
and provide a focus for scattered convection across the remainder 
of the area today. Clouds and convection today should limit high 
temperatures to a few degrees either side of 80f. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through 6 PM Saturday/... 
high pressure and drier air will build into the area from the 
north tonight. The clear skies and light winds should allow areas 
of stratus and fog to form overnight mainly across the interior 
valleys. Lows tonight will range from the 50s across the 
mountains to the lower and mid 60s across southern New Hampshire 
and the Maine coastal plain. A mostly sunny Saturday as the 
surface high center builds by to our north. Highs will be mainly 
in the lower and mid 80s...with a few upper 70s across the 
mountains. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/... 
an broad-scale upper level trough will gradually move east Sunday 
through Tuesday. Models differ on the progression of this trough 
and the associated precipitation with the European model (ecmwf) faster than the 
GFS. As a consequence, sunday's forecast is still a bit uncertain 
with the European model (ecmwf) indicating a rainy day and the GFS holding the rain 
off until Sunday night and Monday. The current forecast is a 
compromise between these two solutions with precip reaching 
southwestern areas in the afternoon...then spreading 
northeastward. High temps Sunday and Monday should be in the 
70s...but sundays temps will depend on amount of sun before any 
showers reach the area. 


After the trough shifts east of region late Monday or Tuesday, 
gradual ridging aloft will provide mainly dry weather across the 
region with a warming trend through much of next week. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/... 
short term /through Saturday/...LCL IFR psb through 11z in valley 
stratus and fog. Otw VFR with areas of MVFR in shra/tsra through 
23z. Aft 23z...VFR with LCL IFR dvlpg in valley stratus and fog. 
Aft 12z Sat...VFR throughout. 


Long term...MVFR conditions will spread from southwest to 
northeast Sunday afternoon and Sunday night in clouds and showers 
and continue during the day Monday. Conditions will improve 
Tuesday with mainly VFR conditions Tuesday through Friday, except 
for early morning valley fog. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /through Saturday/...conditions to remain below Small Craft Advisory 
thresholds through the period. 


Long term...winds and seas expected to be below sca criteria. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Schwibs/jensenius 






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