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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
530 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 


Discussion... 
issued at 336 PM CST Monday Jan 16 2017 


A well-earned and prolonged January thaw is expected through most of 
the forecast period with temperatures expected to be Spring-like. 
This afternoon, both winter and Spring conditions are evident across 
the County Warning Area as a warm front bisects the County Warning Area. Temperatures south of the 
warm front have risen into the mid 50s to lower 60s with 
temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s north. The system that 
brought the weekend rain and freezing rain is still to west of US in 
the formed of the stacked low across east central Kansas. This low 
will move into northwestern Missouri this evening and through 
northern Missouri tonight bringing the likely chance for rain across 
northern Missouri. There will also be the potential for areas of fog 
formation with the recent wet condition as well as drizzle. Rain 
will have exited the area by tomorrow morning as the system finally 
moves of to the east leaving the area in northwest flow aloft. This 
will lead to near normal temperatures tomorrow will highs in the mid 
30s to lower 40s. By Wednesday, split let flow across the Continental U.S. Will 
keep the northern jet well north of the area with the southern jet 
remaining along the southern tier states. This will leave the 
central Continental U.S. Under upper level ridging. This ridging and the onset 
of warm air advection will allow high temperatures to rise into the mid 40s to 
lower 50s. This regime continues on Thursday with high rising into 
the upper 40s to mid 50s. 


Thursday night into Friday will be the next chance for precipitation 
however, it will only be a slight chance. Thursday night into Friday 
a upper level disturbance will ride up the Mississippi River valley 
into the Ohio River valley. The eastern portion County Warning Area may experience 
wrap around moisture from this disturbance. The precipitation will 
be in the form of rain however as highs on Friday will continue to 
be in the 50s. Saturday will stay warm but perhaps a few degrees 
cooler as clouds increase during the day. Highs Saturday will be in 
the upper 40s to lower 50s. The best chance for precipitation beyond 
tonight will come in the Saturday night to Sunday timeframe as a 
upper level trough ejects out from the southwestern Continental U.S. Into the 
Central Plains. Precipitation again will be in the form of rain as 
highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening) 
issued at 529 PM CST Monday Jan 16 2017 


Current VFR conditions in the kc Metro should be short-lived before 
upstream MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions settle into the area later this 
evening and overnight. Showers should conclude in the next few hours 
as the surface low departs. Gradually improving conditions, possibly 
back to MVFR, late morning into early afternoon Tuesday. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...dense fog advisory until midnight CST tonight for ksz102. 


MO...dense fog advisory until midnight CST tonight for moz001>008- 
011>017-020-023>025-032-033. 


&& 



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