Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
408 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015 


Short term...(today through tuesday) 
issued at 407 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015 


Today - tonight: 


Today's weather will be governed by the transition of an upper level 
closed low to an open wave. Latest water vapor satellite imagery 
shows the closed upper low has now shifted east into west central Kansas 
early this morning. A shortwave trough digging into the northern 
High Plains will push this feature and its associated convection 
through the County Warning Area today with the rain ending from west to east this 
evening. 


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany a 
couple mid level vorticity lobes as they rotate northeast across Kansas 
and MO. No severe storms are expected today as less than impressive 
MUCAPES in the 400-800 j/kg range and bulk shear values around 25kts 
will limit the strength of the storms. Like yesterday a few cells 
could produce small hail during peak heating. Temperatures will 
again be negatively impacted by the convection and cloud cover. A 
more organized band of stratiform rain tied to Post-frontal 
frontogenesis and an elongated deformation zone overspreads the 
region during the evening hours. 


Monday - tuesday: 


The northern plains upper trough will gradually sharpen south and 
shift east on Monday with strong subsidence spilling southeast on 
the backside of the trough. Clearing skies will help offset cold air 
advection yielding slightly below average temperatures both days. 


The operational models are showing similar weak signals on Tuesday 
that we'll need to start considering the chance of some shower 
activity. The models generate a series of weak strung out vorticity 
lobes stretching southeast from NE through MO. Moisture will be the 
main limiting factor so if any rain forms it will be light and 
scattered. 




Long term...(wednesday through saturday) 
issued at 407 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015 


Slightly below normal temperatures will stretch through the latter 
half of the week as deep low pressure very slowly transitions southeast 
across the Great Lakes, and northwest flow aloft Ushers cooler 
temperatures into the region. At the same time a surface boundary 
will drift southward through Wednesday, leaving the forecast area in 
north to northeast surface flow and also helping to keep highs in 
the lower to mid 60s. A few light showers and isolated storms are 
possible over the southern tier of the County Warning Area Wednesday and Wednesday 
night as the front heads south, then a period of drier conditions is 
expected on the north side of the boundary Thursday. 


Southerly surface flow will eventually return by the end of the work 
week ahead of a shortwave trough that will eject out of the Desert 
Southwest and into the plains by Friday. Widely scattered showers 
and storms are possible as early as Friday afternoon, but are more 
likely Friday night as the upper trough passes over the County Warning Area. Timing 
of this system is still a bit uncertain, and the probability of any 
embedded storms will depend on how quickly southerly flow and low- 
level moisture return to the region ahead of the shortwave trough. 
At this time, the southern track of the associated surface low and 
the environment in place ahead of the system suggests that the 
potential for strong storms is very low. The clouds and any rain 
associated with the system will keep temperatures down despite the 
transition to southerly flow, so have kept highs mainly in the lower 
60s through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Current 
model trends show the wet weather clearing out by Saturday evening 
and a dry Sunday, but will have to watch the potential for friday's 
system to slow down and impact the coming weekend. 




&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night) 
issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015 


Main concern for the overnight period is fog development with 
periodic IFR conditions possible for the terminal sites. Kstj will 
likely remain IFR to LIFR overnight. Pre-frontal precipitation will 
then become a factor around 09z. Convective activity will be focused 
more to the south, though an isolated thunderstorm or two will be 
possible. As the front draws near, more persistent activity will 
develop for much of Sunday afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings are 
expected within this development. Activity will begin to move out of 
the area toward the end of the forecast period with increased 
northwesterly winds. 




&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...mj 
long term...Laflin 
aviation...Welsh 












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