Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
548 am CDT sun may 24 2015 


Discussion... 
issued at 317 am CDT sun may 24 2015 


..rainfall totals to continue to climb throughout today... 


Moderate to heavy rainfall has been falling across the forecast 
area early this morning with a bit of drying observed on the 
western edge of the main axis of the stratiform rain. Even outside 
of some of the better reflectivity echoes on radar this early am, 
drizzle and light rain has still been reported at area 
observational sites, along with lowered cloud bases. Despite any 
brief window of drying, copious amounts of moisture is still 
abundant across the region as the continued moisture feed from the 
Gomex remains uninhibited. Impressive precipitable water values of 1.54 inches 
from top's 00z sounding lines up fairly well with model soundings, 
with elevated values looking to remain in place through early 
tonight. The influx of warm, moist air will finally get 
interrupted tonight as an upper-level shortwave trough axis moves 
through. The upper wave with a reflection at the surface will 
tighten up as it crosses the forecast area, and as it moves off 
toward the NNE, will take the bulk of the precip with it. 
Basically what the forecast is looking like for today through the 
Holiday tomorrow is continued chances for moderate to heavy 
rainfall with thunderstorms possible as the rain transitions to 
more of a convective nature, finally beginning to wane as Monday 
morning approaches, and quite possibly some decent drying out on 
Monday with only slight chances of thunderstorms during the day. 
Memorial Day will see mid- to upper-level dry air working its way 
into the area and with run after run of model soundings 
continuing to indicate a cap remaining in place during the 
afternoon, could keep convection from firing up. That said, if the 
cap breaks down, noteworthy warming temps and plentiful surface- 
based instability that will have moved in, along with respectable 
shear values, could allow for some feisty storms to be created. 


Next shortwave trough traverses through Monday night into Tuesday, 
welcoming back at least chance pops to the forecast. For the rest 
of the forecast period, unsettled pattern remains locked in place 
with perturbation after perturbation trekking through the region 
and precipitable water values over an inch commonplace through the upcoming 
week. This equates to mentionable pops throughout the rest of the 
forecast period, but doesn't equate to a washout throughout the 
week. 


Highs today region-wide should be able to reach into the 70s 
despite any cloud cover or rain. Temps tomorrow will reach up into 
the upper 70s to lower 80s and while these temps may be welcomed 
by some, the caveat is that it'll feel humid outdoors with 
dewpoints well into the 60s. For the rest of the week, 70s and 80s 
for highs will be seen each day with lows generally in the upper 
50s to 60s throughout the period. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning) 
issued at 535 am CDT sun may 24 2015 


Observations this morning at the area terminals have been 
teetering back and forth between MVFR and IFR conditions as rain 
and lowered ceilings cruises through periodically. General overall 
trend throughout the taf period is for this teetering to continue, 
predominately in MVFR status with drops into the IFR category when 
showers/storms traverses over a terminal. Moderate to heavy 
rainfall will continue to be a threat through tonight. Southerly 
winds will continue to prevail with occasional gusts possible. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ksz025-057-060- 
102>105. 


MO...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for moz012>014-020>023- 
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. 


&& 


$$ 


Discussion...lg 
aviation...lg 












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