Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
634 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015 


Short term...(this evening through Friday night) 
issued at 353 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015 


Post-frontal activity has diminished over the County Warning Area as the cold front 
continues to push south over southern Missouri and northern 
Arkansas. Behind the boundary, northeasterly winds will continue 
bring dry air into the region as surface high pressure moves in from 
the northwest. As a result, dew points will top off in the low to 
mid 60's, making for much more pleasant conditions throughout the 
next few days. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80's Wednesday 
afternoon and Thursday, gradually increasing to the upper 80's by 
Friday. 


A shortwave trough on the periphery of the southern ridge axis will 
trigger convective activity over central Kansas and southern 
Missouri on Thursday. Surface high pressure should keep this 
development out of the area, though the extreme southern County Warning Area could 
see thunderstorm development Thursday morning. A deepening trough 
currently positioned over southwest Ontario and extending south into 
the northern plains will continue to undergo development through the 
end of the work week. This in turn, will cause the ridge over the 
Southern Plains to retrograde by Friday evening, bringing northwest 
flow over the County Warning Area once again. As the upper-level trough moves 
southeast near the Great Lakes, a cold front will approach northern 
Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. This could trigger 
convection during the overnight hours, though models are in 
disagreement with the southern extent of the frontal boundary. With 
existing saturated surface conditions, flooding issues over northern 
Missouri could become an issue. However, dry air near the surface 
and below the mid-levels should help to mitigate any flooding 
potential along this frontal boundary. As the weekend progresses, 
additional convective activity is possible as several shortwave 
features affect the area. 


Long term...(saturday through wednesday) 
issued at 353 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015 


The start of the weekend should continue to be benign as compared to 
recent patterns and trends, although model discrepancies are 
becoming evident from the start of the long-term, particularly in 
the lower third of the atmosphere. What can be agreed upon is 
general northwesterly flow aloft with perturbations running through 
the overall flow. Additionally, does appear that a frontal boundary 
will provide a focus for convection chances early next week with 
unsettled weather returning in general by the middle of next week. 
Models really disagree at the end of this forecast period with the 
upper-level pattern but are fairly consistent in showing the 
unsettled weather chances between each other as convection fires up 
along the periphery of ridging. 


As for temperatures, they will be rather seasonable with highs in 
the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s and 70s. At 
this time, there is no clear indication that the humidity/dewpoints 
will drive afternoon heat indices back up to where they've been in 
recent weeks but it is still too far out to have decent confidence 
in those details. Moisture return looks meager compared to past 
events, with hints of pwats remaining closer toward seasonal 
climatology. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening) 
issued at 633 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015 


VFR conditions expected at the Kansas City terminals as high pressure 
moves through the area tonight and through the day tomorrow. Only 
high level clouds are expected to spread of the terminals. This will 
keep winds light and variable overnight but as the high begins to 
shift to the east tomorrow, winds may become light from south. 


For the stj terminal, cool overnight lows with light winds may help 
to induce River Valley fog so have lowered visibility to 3 sm to 
account for this possibility. 




&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...Welsh 
long term...lg 
aviation...cdb 






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