Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
1117 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015 


Discussion... 
issued at 346 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015 


Tonight - friday: 


Our long awaited warm-up starts tonight. A large area of high 
pressure extending from WI through East Texas will shift east tonight 
while pressure falls over the High Plains represent the approaching 
warm air advection. Looking at a non-diurnal temperature curve over 
the western 1/2 of the County Warning Area with an initial quick drop after sunset 
and steady to slowly rising temperatures after midnight. 


A weak shortwave embedded within broad northwest flow will track 
southeast through South Dakota/NE/IA/MO tonight with no impact on sensible 
weather. With little moisture to work with should only expecting 
some mid clouds across northern MO overnight. 


Southwest winds with a pronounced downslope component will yield a 
nice warm-up on Friday. Dismissed NAM guidance as its boundary layer 
is excessively wet and generates low clouds which greatly impacts 
temperatures. This has been a common occurrence during the cold 
season. Favor the much drier GFS. 


Saturday - thursday: 


Models are in good agreement depicting broad northwest flow aloft 
from the Canadian rockies through the Great Lakes subtly backing 
during the period. During this period a positively tilted upper 
trough is progged to evolve from the southern rockies into the mid 
Atlantic states. Our County Warning Area will be caught in no man's land with a 
couple of non-descript shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow 
sending weak cold fronts through, the first one Saturday late 
afternoon and the second one Sunday night. However, expect dry 
frontal passages with minimal cooling. 


Looking more at 925mb temperatures as indicator for degree of warm 
air advection as not quite able to mix down from 850mb yet. 925mb 
temperatures of 4c-6c should yield above average temperatures over 
the weekend. After a minor cool down on Monday models bring back 
extensive southwesterly boundary layer winds with 925mb temperatures 
from 6c-10c. This should send readings well into the 60s Tuesday 
through Thursday, maybe even a few 70 degree readings on Wednesday 
if the warmer GFS solution proves true. Not going out on the limb 
this far out as confidence is low for that at this time. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night) 
issued at 1116 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015 


VFR conditions are expected through the entire period with only 
scattered high-level clouds moving across northern Missouri late 
tonight/early Friday morning. South winds will increase through the 
overnight hours and then veering more to the south-southwest during the day. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...mj 
aviation...cdb 



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