000 
fxus63 keax 251718 
afdeax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
1118 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017 


Discussion... 
issued at 248 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017 


Despite some cloud cover early this morning, the precip has exited 
the area and will remain dry through tonight. However, precip 
chances look to return tomorrow as a vort Max traverses through 
behind an upper-level jet. Despite the similarities in the mid- to 
upper-levels of the 00z European model (ecmwf) to the GFS, Canadian, and NAM, the 
European model (ecmwf) keeps the forecast area dry tomorrow while the other three 
models are all indicating that enough moisture will be available 
to produce precip. As for precip type, while initial precip type 
could be snow early Sunday, temperatures will quickly rise, 
reaching the mid to upper 40s by midday, thanks to warm air 
advecting in under southerly to southwesterly surface flow. Much 
of the precip should be out of the area by about midnight tomorrow 
night, so other than a potential brief wintry mix once temps drop 
after sunset, the dominant precip type for much of Sunday will be 
in liquid form. Unfortunately, quantitative precipitation forecast values look low for this quick 
shot so not anticipating the precip to make any real dents in the 
continued dry conditions. 


The next chance for precip arrives overnight Monday, ahead of a 
developing surface low. Again though, quantitative precipitation forecast values look low late 
Monday into Tuesday. With low temps forecast to be in the 40s for 
much of the forecast area late Monday into early Tuesday, followed 
by highs Tuesday well into the 50s and 60s, precip type will 
likely be rain overnight and of course rain during the day. 
However, as colder air pushes in late Tuesday into early 
Wednesday behind a cold front, coupled with another round of 
precip chances thanks to a shortwave trough rotating through, 
precip types could transition to wintry in nature, with model 
soundings indicating snow. The wintry precip chances look to be 
short-lived though with high temps forecast to rebound well into 
the 40s and lower 50s during the day on Wednesday. Dry conditions 
are forecast to resume for the latter half of next week. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon) 
issued at 1118 am CST Sat Feb 25 2017 


VFR conditions are expected through the period as surface ridging 
moves through. This will also keep winds relatively light as they 
transition from mainly northerly this afternoon to southerly 
overnight. A weak system will move through Sunday morning with the 
only impact on the terminals being low VFR cloud bases. 
Precipitation should stay south and east of the terminals, 
affecting mainly southern to central Missouri. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 






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