Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
609 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014 


Discussion... 
issued at 328 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014 


It has a very interesting afternoon weather wise, featuring a 200 
mile long band of rain that has an average width of 5 miles. This 
mesoscale banded feature has been handled quite well by the models 
over the past few days, and setup exactly where predicted. The 
elongated area of mid level baroclinity, tied a shortwave impulse 
over western Oklahoma, will gradually shift southeast through early 
this evening. Light rain will continue over Linn and Bates counties 
for the next several hours, with a few sprinkles across surrounding 
counties (cass, Miami, henry), and come to an end by 00z. 


Elsewhere, high clouds streaming northeast from the aforementioned 
trough will steadily clear from northwest to southeast, leaving clear 
skies and light winds overnight. Readings over the nrn half of the 
County Warning Area should bottom out just above freezing at 2m, with areas of frost 
likely in sheltered areas. 


For Friday, upper ridging will amplify just west of the area, with a 
dry light easterly flow at the surface. Despite the chilly start, a 
strong April sun angle will boost afternoon temperatures into the 
middle and upper 60s. Low level southerlies will return on Saturday 
with highs into the middle 70s. 


The upper ridge will pass east of the area Saturday night, and flow 
trajectories suggest that an elevated mixed layer will advect 
northeast from the Southern Plains. The GFS, discounted yesterday for 
its early and very wet forecast for Sunday, has now come around to 
the preferred European solution keeping precipitation mainly west of 
the area during the day. A slow moving southern stream trough will 
meander into the area Sunday night, before being swept eastward by a 
much stronger northern stream wave on Monday. Large scale ascent and 
modest instability should be sufficient for scattered to perhaps 
numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday morning 
(perhaps beginning later Monday afternoon ern Kansas/northwest mo), but the 
degree of instability forecast and weak winds suggest little chance 
of strong to severe storms once the activity progresses into the 
eastern plains. 


In the wake of this system, a touch cooler, but certainly drier, air 
will arrive along the southern periphery of Canadian high pressure 
that will graze the area Monday and Tuesday. Beyond this time frame, 
the focus will shift toward a powerful Spring western Continental U.S. Trough 
that typically suggests that the beginning of severe weather season 
is upon US. In the meantime, the day 7 forecast for Wednesday shows 
unseasonably warm and increasingly humid air surging north into the 
region with a high degree of confidence. Would not be surprised to 
see 80 degree temperatures in many areas as an eml/thermal ridge overspreads 
the area behind some possible morning elevated convection north of 
the advancing warm front. 


As it is the season of change, this will be my last forecast serving 
the great folks of central/northern Missouri and eastern Kansas...as 
I head back east toward Appalachia. It has been a distinct pleasure 
serving you for the past 9 years. I hope these discussions have 
served both an educational and scientific purpose in providing 
you...the media, emergency managers, spotters, first responders and 
the public...the necessary information to be informed and most of 
all, prepared. Best wishes to all of you. 


Bookbinder 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening) 
issued at 605 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014 


VFR conditions and light winds for this forecast period. Back edge 
of the high level cloudiness peeling east and out of eastern Kansas which 
will leave clear skies and nearly no wind overnight. Area of light 
rain moving into central MO will continue shifting east this evening. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...bookbinder 
aviation...mj 












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