Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
646 PM CDT sun may 1 2016 


Discussion... 
issued at 219 PM CDT sun may 1 2016 


A little wet and cloudy along the Iowa border with comparatively 
nice conditions farther south across east central Kansas into 
central Missouri has been the prevailing pattern for today. However, 
the upper level shortwave trough is sliding northeast out of Iowa 
this afternoon has induced enough of a return flow on the backside 
that low clouds and a few showers are now moving through northern 
Missouri. Areas south of the Missouri River where able to bound in 
the 60s, but cloud cover and northerly winds farther north have kept 
conditions cooler and damper. 


Rest of the afternoon through Monday...cool, cloud, and likely 
damp,conditions will prevail. While the shortwave in Iowa is moving 
away this afternoon, a follow on shortwave trough is expected to 
quickly exit the Desert Southwest late tonight, ejecting along a 
slightly more southern track than the leading shortwave moving 
through Iowa. Ultimately, this should keep the lower clouds and 
potential for scattered showers persisting across the region 
overnight and through the day Monday as a result. Have tossed in 
chance pops for late Monday morning and the afternoon hours as the 
shortwave trough ejects into and through the southern and Central 
Plains. This could make for a soupy day, with low clouds, drizzle 
and scattered showers dominating. However, with the exiting of the 
secondary shortwave that night, warmer temperatures and less cloudy 
skies will prevail in the days afterwards. 


Tuesday on into the next weekend...will be dominated by dry weather 
and nice temperatures. With the secondary shortwave exiting the 
region Monday night into Tuesday the region will quickly get 
dominated by a large amplitude ridge sandwiched between two large 
cutoff circulations; one over the East Coast with the other over the 
Great Basin. Temperatures under the ridge will warm into the 70s 
with lows in the 50s. Otherwise, given the pattern set up later in 
the work week, expect that sometime late in the weekend --but more 
likely early next work week-- the Great Basin trough will start 
ejecting through the plains and likely result in our next widespread 
chance for storms in the region. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening) 
issued at 645 PM CDT sun may 1 2016 


Should see MVFR stratus through most of the forecast period, with 
some degradation toward IFR in a few hours. Expect a gradual 
improvement through the morning hours on Monday, with VFR status 
prevailing by the afternoon hours. 




&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...cutter 
aviation...Leighton 






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