Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
615 am CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015 

issued at 353 am CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015 

There are few concerns in the short term this forecast package. The 
first issue will be the fog across the area this morning. Mid-level 
clouds over the western County Warning Area should preclude fog there. However, over 
the eastern cwa, clear skies and light winds have lead to areas of 
fog with patchy areas of dense fog locally reducing visibilities to 
1/4 to 1/2 a mile. Fog will persist through mid-morning before 
burning off. High pressure will remain in control over the area 
under partly sunny skies leading the way to mild conditions with 
highs in the mid 70s. Tonight, a upper level shortwave trough will 
move from the northern plains into the upper Midwest forcing a 
trailing cold front into eastern Nebraska and northern Kansas. With 
the better forcing well north of the area on Thursday morning, the 
cold front will slowly sag into the northwestern portion of the 
forecast area. Warm air advection out ahead of this front will allow highs to rise 
into the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday afternoon. Late Thursday 
afternoon, the front will still be stalled across the northwestern 
County Warning Area when a fast moving secondary shortwave will move into the area 
from the Central Plains. This secondary shortwave will force the 
front southward providing lift for showers and thunderstorm 
development. The best moisture and instability (1000j/kg of mucape) 
will be along and south of the I-70 corridor where the best chance 
for thunderstorms will exist. Storms will continue through Thursday 
night before the front clears the southern County Warning Area by Friday morning. 

High pressure will move into the area behind the front on Friday 
with cooler highs in the mid to upper 60s. However, a warming trend 
is expected through the weekend as upper level ridging shifts 
eastward from The Rockies. By Sunday, surface high pressure will 
shift east allowing for modest southwesterly winds as the upper 
ridge moves into the region. This will allow for highs in the upper 
70s to lower 80s. On Monday an upper level trough will dig through 
the northern plains into the upper Midwest forcing a cold front 
through the area. This will cool temperatures a few degrees but with 
no cold air evident behind the front temperatures will continue to 
remain above normal in the mid to upper 70s through the middle of 
the week. 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning) 
issued at 615 am CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015 

The main concern for aviators durg this taf pd will be fog. Fog is 
persisting at the terminals this morning with areas of patchy dense 
fog. Vsbys at stj are 1/4sm and are expected to remain in LIFR thru 
15z before fog finally Burns off. Otrw...vsbys at all other taf sites will 
generally bounce around btn 2sm-6sm thru 15z. Aft 15z expect VFR 
conds to prevail with sct-bkn clouds btn 6-8kft. Fog will again be 
likely at stj aft 05z with vsbys poss again reduced to IFR conds. 
Winds thru the pd will generally be lgt and vrb before picking up 
out of the south around 5kts tonight. 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 



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