Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
1121 PM CST Wednesday Feb 10 2016 


Discussion... 
issued at 408 PM CST Wednesday Feb 10 2016 


Quite a temperature gradient across the County Warning Area this afternoon with 
highs in the 20s and low 30s throughout the northeast half and 40s 
and low 50s across the southwest. A quick little clipper system 
moving through strong northwest flow aloft brought a quick inch of 
snow to much of north-central and central Missouri. This snowband 
will rapidly taper off over the next several hours. Further to the 
southwest, moderate mixing down of 850 mb temperatures have led to 
gusty southwest winds advecting much warmer temperatures into eastern 
Kansas and western Missouri. This has also helped to erode much of 
the cloud cover across this area. 


Low stratus deck will build back over the County Warning Area tonight as surface low 
drops southward into Oklahoma and surface high migrates southward 
out of the northern plains. Winds will become more northerly tonight 
behind the departing system and will allow for sufficient mixing in 
the boundary layer to mitigate the potential for fog. Another quick 
moving clipper type system overnight Thursday will bring another 
shot for light snow across northeast portions of the County Warning Area through 
Friday morning. The coldest day this week will arrive Saturday as 
Canadian high pressure surges down into the central US. High 
temperatures will only make it to the teens across the northeast 
half of the County Warning Area with 20 to maybe low 30s further south and west. 


The next system to keep an eye on will impact the region Saturday 
night and Sunday with the potential for rain, snow, and a wintry mix 
throughout the day. Long-range models still have a few differences 
in timing and location of the system, and this will affect the 
timing of precipitation and potential precip types. Right now 
temperatures look to stay near or slightly above freezing late 
Sunday morning and afternoon, so timing will be an important factor 
in precip impacts. For now have kept a rain/snow mix in the forecast 
for areas that look to reach near to above freezing. 


After the weekend system moves out, above normal temperatures return 
to the region and might lead to a bit of Spring fever as highs 
approach the 50s and 60s. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night) 
issued at 1120 PM CST Wednesday Feb 10 2016 


Overnight low level stratus still on tap, but it looks like the 
saturated level will be rather thin so there could be off and on 
periods of breaks in the clouds. Some mixed signals about when the 
clouds will scatter, but right now it looks like the favored time for 
VFR conditions to return will be shortly after sunrise on Thursday 
morning. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...pmm 
aviation...Leighton 






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