Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
1234 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015 


Discussion... 
issued at 259 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015 


The main concern in the short term will revolve around morning 
thunderstorms and the possible affects on temperatures today. The 
aforementioned thunderstorms have developed in an area of isentropic 
ascent which will weaken through the mid morning hours with showers 
diminishing. It is possible an additional half an inch to one inch 
could fall across northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern 
Kansas where these storms have developed. There will be additional 
cloud cover that will exist over the northwestern County Warning Area through the 
morning hours however, skies should clear this afternoon and 
temperatures should quickly warm. Highs across the County Warning Area today will 
range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. 


The remainder of the short term continues to look warm and dry as a 
upper level ridge builds over the area. The ridge axis will reside 
over the area on Thursday and Friday keeping conditions dry and 
allowing highs to rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. The ridge 
will begin to weaken on Saturday as a upper level trough digs into 
the West Coast and moves into the intermountain west. Conditions, 
however, should remain dry and warm on Saturday with highs remaining 
in the upper 80s and lower 90s. 


Sunday, the upper level trough will move into the northern High 
Plains forcing a cold front into the plains. Warm air advection out 
ahead of the front will keep temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 
90s despite an increase in cloud cover. Sunday night the upper 
trough moves into the northern plains and the cold front will 
approach the area with thunderstorms moving into the area from the 
west. This Marks the beginning of an active weather pattern across 
the area. By Monday, the upper level trough lifts northeastward into 
Canada allowing the cold front to stall across the County Warning Area. Several 
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the 
middle of the work week as several upper level shortwaves move 
through the area sparking convection along the stalled front. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon) 
issued at 1234 PM CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015 


With precipitation dissipating over the area, there should be no more 
impacts to visibility or ceilings. So VFR conditions are expected 
through the forecast. Winds may increase later this afternoon and 
diminish some overnight. Winds should be stronger and gustier by 
tomorrow afternoon with winds mainly from the south. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...73 
aviation...cdb 



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