Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
521 am CST sun Dec 4 2016 


Discussion... 
issued at 405 am CST sun Dec 4 2016 


A widespread area of rain showers has developed ahead of an 
advancing shortwave now centered over the Central Plains. This 
activity will continue to build over the area through the early to 
mid morning hours Sunday before quickly exiting by the late morning 
hours. Thus far, rain totals have been relatively marginal, 
generally a quarter of an inch or less. Expecting rain totals of 
around half an inch for areas across northwest to north central 
Missouri with lesser amounts elsewhere by the time all is said and 
done. Not anticipating much in the way of wintry mix at this point 
with residual activity through Sunday morning. Dewpoints have 
increased a degree or two above freezing in the most prone areas, 
though some areas far north could still see a mix of rain and snow 
in the early morning hours. 


Conditions will improve from west to east through the late morning 
to afternoon as cloud cover also quickly erodes by the mid 
afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will be slightly warmer than 
Saturday given the clearing skies, particularly for eastern Kansas 
and western Missouri. Values will range from the lower 40s for the 
northern counties into the mid to upper 40s for areas along and 
south of the Missouri River. A weak mid-level ridge will advect over 
the area Monday and push temperatures into the lower 50s across the 
area and will maintain dry conditions through the early week. 


The well advertised significant change in the pattern will then 
occur Tuesday as an Arctic air mass begins to enter from the 
northwest Tuesday morning. Have removed pops along the cold front as 
moisture will remain limited during the frontal passage. The 
southwestern cutoff low will also eject into the lower Mississippi 
River valley and support rain showers across central to southeastern 
Missouri early Tuesday morning. Temperatures behind the frontal 
boundary will begin a downward trend Tuesday and persist through the 
remainder of the work week. 


Models continue to show reasonable agreement with the timing and 
placement of a broad upper trough moving through the Central Plains 
by Wednesday afternoon. The introduction of the NAM solution during 
this time frame also resembles what the ec has advertised over the 
course of the last few days as to the scope of a potential mid-week 
winter weather event. Though the GFS and NAM solution is roughly six 
hours faster than the ec in the placement of a vort Max across south 
central Kansas, confidence is increasing in the development of this 
feature, along with a band of 850 hpa frontogenesis extending west to 
east across eastern Kansas into central Missouri. The typical wild 
card feature being the thermal profile for snow potential, will be 
removed from the equation during this event as the profile would 
support all snow during the entire evolution of the event. Will need 
to continue to monitor this potential setup, though confidence is 
increasing for accumulating snow Wednesday. Beyond this event, cold 
temperatures will remain fixed over the area until a brief warming 
trend begins by the weekend. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning) 
issued at 515 am CST sun Dec 4 2016 


Rain showers will continue to impact all terminal sites early Sunday 
until the mid-morning. Once this activity clears the area from west 
to east, IFR ceilings are possible until low-level cloud cover is 
able to scatter out by the late morning to early afternoon. 
Conditions will then rapidly improve with clearing skies expected 
through the remainder of the period. Winds will then turn southerly, 
though should remain relatively light. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...Welsh 
aviation...Welsh 



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