Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
616 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016 

issued at 319 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016 

Quiet weather pattern dominating this afternoon as a sfc ridge axis 
associated high pressure across the upper Mississippi rvr Vly 
extends south into our region. The presence of this feature has kept 
monday's frontal boundary well south of our fcst area and any 
associated convection confined to areas along/south of I-44. With 
time tonight...aforementioned high pressure will continue tracking 
east into the western Great Lakes which will allow for the front to 
begin lifting north as a warm front as southerly flow is 
reestablished. With little to no low level jet to work with however...and lack 
of any identifiable shortwaves of interest...the passage of this 
boundary should be marked with little more than a windshift and the 
return of more humid conditions as wednesday's highs reach back 
into the lower 90s across most areas. These temperatures along with 
low 70 degree dewpoints should allow heat indicies to reach the upper 
90s across most areas...and considering the recent values with last 
week's "heat wave" heat headlines are anticipated at the present 

Next chance for shwrs/storms looks to arrive overnight 
Wednesday/early Thursday when the next upstream shortwave dives 
southeast in northwest flow aloft. From this Vantage Point...precip 
should start entering northwest Missouri around/after 03z with precip 
gradually extending southeast with time. Overall threats for severe 
look fairly low at this time considering marginally strong mid-level 
wind fields. That said however...cannot rule out an isolated strong 
cell or steep low-level lapse rates may support a strong 
convective wind gust or two...especially across the far northwestern 
zones. Beyond this...our region becomes well-entrenched in northwest 
flow aloft and lingering outflow boundaries along with the passage of 
several reoccurring shortwaves all supporting continued chances for 
shwrs/storms through the remainder of the week. At this venture...its 
hard to pin down any specific details aside from the fact that 
weather impacts on the mesoscale will certainly play a factor going 
forward this week and likely right through the upcoming weekend. And 
beyond this...models are now signaling the return of broad upper- 
level ridging across the Heartland which should allow temperatures to 
rebound to above normal early next week along with the return of 
drier conditions. 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening) 
issued at 616 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016 

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with winds going 
from a east to southeast direction throughout the night. There is the 
possibility of MVFR visibility at kstj in the morning, but with no 
fog formation last night and a whole day of mostly sunshine it is 
unlikely. Some fair weather cumulus may form over the area during 
Wednesday afternoon around 4 kft, but little to no vertical extent is 
expected with a solid cap in place. 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 



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