Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
510 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015 


Short term...(this evening through Thursday night) 
issued at 341 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015 


In the short term, the main story will be temperatures as a surface 
low slides eastward across the MO/Iowa border and a series of two 
shortwave troughs push into the Great Lakes region, enhancing 
southerly flow tomorrow and then pushing a surface cold front 
through by Thursday morning. 


High temperatures tomorrow afternoon will reach the upper 60s to 
perhaps lower 70s in southwestern portions of the forecast area, as 
a result of 850 mb temperatures in the +12 to +15 range and mixing 
to nearly that level as south southwesterly low-level winds 
increase. Mainly clear skies during much of the day will also 
promote heating, and a dry-ish boundary layer should prevent any 
afternoon cu development, especially across the western half of the 
forecast area. 


The cold front will slide through the County Warning Area between 05z-09z Thursday, 
resulting in steadily decreasing temperatures during the morning. 
Some recovery into the mid 40s is expected as associated cloud cover 
shifts eastward during the afternoon, but cold air advection will 
still keep highs much cooler than wednesday's near record warmth. 
Measurable precipitation with this system is expected to remain to 
the north and east of the forecast area due to generally low deep 
moisture availability, although light drizzle or a few sprinkles 
aren't out of the question for far northeast MO early Thursday 
morning where shallow low-level saturation is a bit more prevalent. 


Long term...(friday through tuesday) 
issued at 341 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015 


Friday - Friday night... 


Shortwave ridging aloft will dampen as it shifts east into the 
Southern Plains as an upper system closes off over southwestern U.S. 
And northwest Mexico. Surface high from Minnesota through MO will retreat 
east as weak warm advection begins to spread east. However, overall 
effect on sensible weather is nil and expect to see near seasonal 
temperatures. 


Saturday - Sunday night... 


While the medium range models, especially the European model (ecmwf) and GFS, are 
converging on a solution which brings an increasing chance for 
precipitation over the cwa, snow and how much are less certain. Once 
the upper system moves inland it will be better sampled and the 
forecast confidence will improve. That being said it appears the 
upper low which closes off over Arizona will not phase with the northern 
stream shortwave trough that sharpens as it dives southeast through 
NE/IA/MO. 


Based on the above scenario would expect to see an initial batch of 
warm advection/isentropically induced precipitation spread across 
the County Warning Area on Saturday. Inspection of the GFS and lower resolution 
European model (ecmwf) sounding profiles shows top-down saturation but with an above 
freezing near-surface layer. The primary question is whether or not 
cold air will be in place prior to the onset of precipitation. With 
a southerly boundary layer and no cooling aloft have to lean more 
towards rain or rain/snow mix until Saturday night when colder air 
arrives with the northern streams attendant cold front. Too early 
plus low confidence to consider snow amounts this far out. Do think 
better chance for accumulating snow is over northern and eastern 
counties of the County Warning Area. Back edge of deformation cloud shield should 
Harbor all snow and will clear from west to east quickly. 


Monday - Tuesday... 


Strong subsidence and arrival of Arctic airmass allows US to lower 
temperatures both days and even then we may be too conservative. 
Fast northwest flow could easily hide a weak impulse or two which 
could generate light snow by Tuesday....if not earlier. For now will 
leave forecast dry with much below average temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening) 
issued at 508 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015 


VFR conditions expected to continue through the taf period. Main 
feature will be the winds as they veer through the overnight period, 
while becoming gusty out of the south by mid-morning on Wednesday. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...Laflin 
long term...mj 
aviation...Welsh 












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