Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
532 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 

issued at 340 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 

The main focus for this forecast issuance remains potential wintry 
precipitation Thursday evening through Friday as a trough slides 
across the northern plains and pushes a surface cold front through 
the forecast area. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture advection 
and isentropic lift will support increasing chances of drizzle or 
very light rain today into this evening, then rain will increase in 
coverage and intensity on Thursday as surface low pressure bulges 
out from the High Plains and the front begins to push southeastward. 
Very minor instability builds Thursday morning & early afternoon 
ahead of the surface boundary, possibly resulting in an isolated 
rumble of thunder or two and periods of heavier rain showers south 
of I-70. In total, widespread rain amounts will reach 1.5" to 2" 
from today through Friday morning, which could result in isolated, 
minor flooding issues. 

Elevated frontogenesis and moisture pooling just behind the surface 
cold front continue to support a broad region of Post-frontal 
precipitation. At the same time, near-surface cold air will surge 
into the region behind the front Thursday evening and night, and the 
combination of cold-air advection and diurnal cooling will help 
temperatures drop while precipitation is ongoing. Precipitation type 
remains very tricky in this Post-frontal regime, for a number of 
reasons. First, warm air will be thoroughly in place ahead of the 
front, with pre-frontal temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 
In addition, the widespread rain ahead of the system will wet the 
warm ground and make ice accumulation more difficult, and without a 
break in rain even as temperatures fall, flash freezing of standing 
rainwater will be unlikely. Finally, model soundings continue to 
show a loss of mid-level saturation as surface temperatures drop 
below freezing, hinting more at a short period of light freezing 
drizzle than any significant freezing rain. As a result, the most 
likely scenario, given the conceptual model for this system and the 
antecedent conditions, is that temperatures will hover a few degrees 
above freezing while Post-frontal rain is occurring, and will not 
drop below the freezing mark until most precipitation has ended late 
Thursday night or Friday morning. The only exception in our County Warning Area 
could be in extreme northwest MO where temperatures will start out a 
bit cooler and could drop a bit more efficiently behind the surface 
front, but the threat for accumulating ice decreases very quickly to 
the south and east. It is, however, important to note that better 
moisture availability and colder temperatures west and northwest of 
our forecast area will make freezing rain and significant ice 
accumulations much more probable, so those with travel plans in 
those directions should exercise extreme caution and plan ahead for 
difficult travel conditions Thursday night and Friday. 

The front may briefly stall near our southern County Warning Area border this 
weekend and into early next week, then cut-off low pressure that 
will linger over the Desert Southwest this weekend will eventually 
eject eastward by the end of the forecast period, allowing low-end 
precipitation chances to linger through the weekend and into early 
next week. Low temperatures will hover around freezing making brief 
periods of mixed wintry precipitation possible, but impactful winter 
weather is not anticipated in the long-range forecast period at this 
time. Diurnal temperature rises will be dampened by clouds and any 
precipitation, resulting in a chilly, damp Holiday weekend and start 
to next week. 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning) 
issued at 532 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 

Ceilings will progressively lower today as moisture builds into the 
region, falling into the MVFR category by mid-morning, and eventually 
to IFR around or shortly after sunset. Patchy drizzle is possible 
this afternoon through tonight, then more widespread, heavier rain is 
anticipated just beyond the end of the forecast period. Winds will 
remain out of the south at 12 to 15 kts throughout the taf period, 
occasionally gusting between 20-25 kts especially during the daylight 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 



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