Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
551 am CDT Tue Sep 30 2014 


Discussion... 
issued at 355 am CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014 


Short term (today through Thursday night): 


The short term will provide several rounds of showers and 
thunderstorms Tuesday night through Thursday night with the 
potential for severe storms on Wednesday night and again Thursday. 
However, today will bring one more warm and (mostly)dry day. This 
morning, a back door cold front is sinking southwestward from the 
upper Mississippi River valley. This front is expected to sink into 
the northeastern County Warning Area backing winds to the east-northeast. It is across the 
northeastern County Warning Area where high temperatures will only reach the mid 70s 
where most other locales across the rest of the forecast area will 
reach into the low to mid 80s. Our first weather maker, in what will 
be a one-two punch, is an upper level trough which is evident on 
water vapor imagery this morning centered near the western NE/South Dakota 
border. This upper level trough will continue to move north-northeast through 
the northern plains today. This will send a weak cold front into the 
plains. Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon out ahead of the 
cold front from eastern NE to central Kansas. A few of these showers may 
clip extreme northwestern Missouri late this afternoon however the 
bulk of the thunderstorm activity is expected to hold off until 
tonight when a southwesterly 30-40kt low level jet is expected to increase 
across eastern Kansas nosing into southeastern Nebraska. This will 
fuel thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front however they are not 
expected to be severe. These showers and thunderstorms will 
overspread the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 


Wednesday afternoon the nearly stationary cold front across central 
Nebraska and Kansas will be the focus for afternoon thunderstorms 
west of the area but will move eastward into eastern Kansas in the 
evening. Also, Wednesday evening the second system, in the form of a 
upper shortwave, will dig as it moves into the eastern rockies. This 
upper level system will force the cold front into eastern Kansas as 
a 40-50kt low level jet develops. Steep mid-level lapse rate and 1500-2000j/kg 
of cape will support the potential for large hail and damaging winds 
Wednesday night. 


There will be another chance for severe weather Thursday but this 
threat becomes more conditional as 1) early morning convection may 
limit instability 2) and strength and speed of the upper level 
trough will also play a role. The trend amongst models has been to 
slow the upper level shortwave down as it digs into the Western 
Plains Wednesday night into Thursday. This would keep the associated 
cold front across the northwestern County Warning Area by Thursday afternoon. If 
skies can clear out from early morning convection and instability 
depicted by the NAM of 1500-2500j/kg cape can be realized then 
severe weather would again be possible with the main Mode of 
convection being a squall line with damaging winds and large hail 
possible. The front will exit the area Thursday night with showers 
continuing as the upper level trough shifts through the region. 


Long term (friday through monday): 


The extended time frame will be quiet with a cool start before 
moderating into the latter half of the weekend into early next week. 
As the upper level trough moves east of the area it will continue to 
dig. Upper level ridging will build across the western Continental U.S.. this 
will leave the local area under northwest cool northwest flow aloft. 
Friday's and saturday's highs will be in the low to mid 60s. The 
upper level flow then shifts to a more zonal pattern by Monday with 
seasonable highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning) 
issued at 551 am CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014 


VFR conds will prevail through tonight. Bkn high cirrus and sct cu 
around 5-6kft will prevail this afternoon and tonight. Showers and a 
few thunderstorms will develop west of the terminals tonight and 
move eastward into the terminals btn 07z-09z. Conds should remain VFR 
at the terminals despite showers and vicinity thunder with bkn-ovc 
cigs around 6kft and no vis restrictions. Winds will be out of the 
south-southeast through the period btn 7-12kts. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...73 
aviation...73 



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