Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
234 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014 


Discussion... 
issued at 203 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014 


The inherited forecast appears to be on track for the next several 
days with the latest model guidance. Late tonight the area should 
see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a 
low amplitude middle-level trough moving in from the northwest coupled 
with modest isentropic ascent / warm air advection. Instability and 
shear profiles are support for the possibility of small hail with any 
of the stronger storms...severe storms are not anticipated. The best 
chances to see precipitation exists across the western half of the County Warning Area. The 
activity should persist into the middle-morning hours before another 
low amplitude trough moves through. Additionally a warm front will 
slowly mix into the region from the west serving as the focus for the 
redevelopment of thunderstorms during the day tomorrow and continue 
into the evening. As with tonight's activity the best chances of 
seeing any precipitation will be across the western half of the County Warning Area. 


Thursday and Friday should be dry with moderating temperatures 
heading into the weekend. On Saturday a deep trough will move across 
the northern plains and upper Midwest. As it does some of the 
moisture from the remnants of Odile will be advected into the system. 
Furthermore, moisture advection out of the Gulf of Mexico will be 
rather robust thus setting the stage for the possibility of 
widespread rainfall...some locally heavy. Dprog/dt of the GFS and ec 
have backed off on quantitative precipitation forecast amounts with the bulk of the precipitation remaining 
well south of the County Warning Area. At this time I stayed the course of a wetter 
solution but obviously something to monitor should the latest drier 
trends continue. On Sunday the area clears out with drier weather and 
near normal temperatures to start the new work week. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon) 
issued at 1230 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014 


VFR conditions through the afternoon ahead of a developing 
frontal zone that will increase the cloud cover tonight. At this time 
think the ceilings should remain VFR overnight but MVFR is not out of the 
question. Near dawn isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are 
anticipated to develop along and north of the frontal zone with the 
chance for the precip to last well through the day on Wednesday. At 
this time what does develop should be hit-or-miss so hence the vcsh 
for this fcst issuance. The surface winds should be fairly steady out 
of the southeast and under 15 kts. 




&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...pietrycha 
aviation...pietrycha 



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