Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
628 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014 


Discussion... 
issued at 422 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014 


Today - tuesday: 


Excessive heat and high humidity will continue to be the primary 
theme/concern into the early portion of next week. 800 mb temperatures 
will be little changed during this period while dewpoints in the 
low/mid 70s today will drop off into the middle to upper 60s owing 
to deeper mixing. So, while daily highs through Tuesday will not see 
much day-to-day change the relative humidity is expected to fall 
sufficiently to keep heat index readings below advisory criteria 
after today. 


A pronounced upper level ridge currently runs north-south through MO 
while a sharp upper level trough lies over the northern 
intermountain region. This latter feature is progged to lift 
northeast through Sunday forcing the northern portion of the upper 
ridge to lean eastward. A quasi-stationary boundary lies across 
northern MO this morning with scattered convection along and north 
of it. A low-level jet over the Central Plains is progged to veer to 
the southwest today and enhance isentropic ascent on the 310k 
surface. This may be sufficient to overcome minimal cin and generate 
widely scattered convection over west central MO this morning with 
the activity shifting quickly northeast. 700 mb temperatures warming to 
12c this afternoon should then effectively cap the airmass and end 
the convective threat. 


As the intermountain upper trough lifts into the northern plains on 
Sunday it will likely force a cold front east across NE and Kansas. This 
front may reach into northwest MO Sunday night and then stall over 
this region on Monday before lifting back north. 


Tuesday night - thursday: 


Still looking at this time period when we finally break the back of 
the heat/humidity. Another sharp upper trough is expected to move 
into the northern intermountain region but this time the medium 
range models March it due east and push a cold front into the County Warning Area 
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Scattered convection is expected to 
accompany the front. The European model (ecmwf) and Gem models are signaling a 
stronger and slower system which would prolong the rain threat into 
Thursday. The current modest pops are a bit conservative but there 
is plenty of time to increase them in future forecasts. High 
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected during this 
period. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning) 
issued at 625 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014 


Scattered convection this morning across northern MO with isolated 
storms near the terminals through mid morning. Expect broken mid 
clouds to scatter out as thunderstorm threat ends. Could see a few 
hours of gusty southerly winds by late afternoon but confidence on 
occurrence too low to mention in forecast. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ksz025-057-060- 
102>105. 


MO...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for moz001>008-011>017- 
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. 


&& 


$$ 


Discussion...mj 
aviation...mj 



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