Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
303 am CDT Wed Jul 30 2014 

issued at 302 am CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014 

A few light, widely scattered showers are possible early this 
morning through early afternoon as a shortwave trough heads east 
southeast across portions of southern Kansas and southeast Missouri. Any 
precipitation amounts should be fairly light in our cwa, and should 
be confined to areas southwest of the kc Metro. By early to mid 
afternoon, a decent push of dry air between 700-500 mb will head 
southward, cutting off precipitation chances and eroding cloud cover 
from north to south. Temperatures are still expected to rise into 
the lower 80s this afternoon, but highs may be reached a bit later 
in the day as cloud cover diminishes. 

Synoptic models continue to produce spurious convection through the 
week as a series of weak shortwave troughs dip southeastward, but a 
fairly deep layer of very dry air entrenched across the region 
should keep precipitation chances very minimal. Have kept a dry 
forecast from this evening through early next week, when the pattern 
finally starts to change. Continued northwest flow aloft will keep 
temperatures several degrees below normal this week through the 
weekend, holding high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and lows 
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. 

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will eventually depart early 
next week, allowing ridging to shift eastward across the plains and 
southerly flow to return at low levels. This should allow slightly 
warmer temperatures and higher low-level moisture to be ushered back 
into the region, slightly raising the chance for precipitation with 
any systems that traverse the County Warning Area. Currently, long-range models 
drape a nearly stationary surface boundary near or slightly north of 
the County Warning Area Tuesday into Tuesday night, and allow this feature to sink 
southward with time. Have added some lower-end pops for the end of 
the forecast period Tuesday night through Wednesday, but timing and 
position of any storm chances will need to be refined more in future 
forecast issuances. 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night) 
issued at 1209 am CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014 

VFR conditions expected through the period at mci/mkc. Have continued 
brief period of MVFR visibility at stj as warm water temperatures may 
allow for shallow river fog to develop prior to sunrise. A few cu may 
persist after sunset with some increase in mid-level clouds during 
the morning hours. Winds will generally be northerly, with some 
variability in direction. 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 



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