Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
1227 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014 


Update... 
issued at 544 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014 


Trends on satellite and observations show dense fog across northern 
Missouri building south and west toward northern portions of the kc 
Metro toward Chariton and Carroll counties. Additional fog is 
developing over eastern Kansas spreading into western portions of the kc 
area. Will therefore expand the dense fog advisory into a few more 
counties, although these areas should see fog that is more patchy in 
nature compared to areas further northeast. Meanwhile drying coming 
in from Iowa is causing fog to scour out across northern MO so 
advisory will be dropped for a few counties up that way. 


&& 


Discussion... 
issued at 308 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014 


Fog has developed across much of north central and northeast Missouri 
early this morning where a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9 
am. Fog is more patchy in nature further west toward the Missouri 
River, but with River Valley locations already fogging up and sref 
probabilities suggesting fog will build westward, went ahead and 
expanded the dense fog advisory further west into northwest MO. 


Once fog and any remnant stratus burn off this morning, clear skies 
will be the rule across the region through the day with highs rising 
into the middle and upper 70s. Models have slowed down the surge of 
warmer 925 hpa temps, which makes sense given backed low-level flow, 
so highs were nudged down a few degrees with 80 degree readings 
likely having to wait until Sunday. Veering flow on Sunday will 
bring most areas into the lower 80s except the Kirksville area where 
winds will remain more backed. These readings will be almost 20 
degrees above average but a few degrees shy of records. 


A fairly deep upper-level trough will traverse the center of the 
country Monday and Tuesday, sending a cold front into the area Monday 
afternoon and evening. Despite the warm airmass ahead of the front, 
dry low-levels and a low-level temperature inversion will 
significantly limit instability. Thus the potential for any robust 
storms is low. Broad northwest flow behind the front will keep US dry 
through the remainder of the week while temperatures return to 
seasonable levels. A deep surface high may finally bring the 
first real threat of frost/freeze to the region by Friday night. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon) 
issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014 


VFR conditions expected throughout the afternoon/evening hours 
Saturday with NE winds transitioning to southeast through the forecast 
period. Conditions are once again favorable for fog development at 
the terminals overnight with the moist boundary layer in place. Also, 
expecting to see some low-level cloud formation during the early 
morning hours Sunday ahead of a warm front edging in from the SW. 
This will likely present a case for IFR conditions until the fog and 
low cloud layer scatter out in the mid to late morning hours Sunday. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...hawblitzel 
discussion...hawblitzel 
aviation...Welsh 












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