Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
353 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014 


Short term...(this evening through Friday night) 
issued at 353 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014 


Late this afternoon an elongated area of showers and isolated 
thunderstorms extends from the Dakotas southward into north central 
Kansas and further south scattered into central Texas. This 
activity is associated with an upper trough propagating through the 
northern plains along with a secondary vorticity maximum in the 
southern stream moving into western Oklahoma. Short range models 
such as the hrrr and local WRF seemed to be doing a good job with 
the timing of the precipitation into the forecast area. Still 
expecting rain to spread into the area first in northwest Missouri 
later this evening, then gradually across the rest of the forecast 
area after midnight. 


Upper features and weak surface boundary gradually exit the area 
tomorrow bringing an end to the precipitation from west to east. A 
few of the model time sections try to hold on to some cloud cover 
during the day tomorrow especially over northeast Missouri, however 
still anticipating seeing improving conditions in the afternoon 
particularly over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. 


Air mass behind the surface boundary moving through on Thursday not 
significantly different than air mass currently over region so if 
clouds can clear would still expect temperatures to rebound to above 
seasonal values tomorrow. Significant warming of the lower and 
middle layers of the atmosphere is forecast for Thursday night and 
Friday. 850hpa temperatures approach +18c by 00z Saturday in eastern 
Kansas and western missoui and as a result surface temperatures 
should warm into the middle and upper 70s on Friday. 




Long term...(saturday through wednesday) 
issued at 353 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014 


A very pleasant weekend in store as a broad upper level ridge builds 
into the country's mid-section. This puts the County Warning Area under northwest 
flow aloft and surface winds shifting around from more northerly at 
the start of the weekend to southeasterly by Sunday. With 850mb 
temperatures progged to be in the mid teens, and thermal ridge axis 
across the County Warning Area Saturday afternoon, wouldn't be surprised to see a 
few locations reach 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. The upper level 
ridge will shift eastward and over the area by Sunday, and allow for 
another beautiful fall day with highs reaching the low 80s. However, 
these reminiscent summerish days won't last long given an 
approaching trough that will bring another chance for rain and a few 
thunderstorms. Southerly winds will help advect higher dewpoints 
into the region Sunday and Monday increasing instability across the 
region. With 500-1000 j/kg of cape forecast, cannot rule out a 
rumble or two Monday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough. 
Long-range models refuse to come to an agreement on the timing and 
southern extent this trough will take. The ec takes a more aggressive 
and slower approach by deepening the low as it moves across nm and 
the Texas Panhandle. The GFS is less aggressive and keeps the main 
trough across the northern plains with flow becoming more zonal by 
Tuesday. 




&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon) 
issued at 1231 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014 


Main challenge for the 18z forecast cycle is timing of precipitation into 
the taf sites. In general...prefer the scenario painted by the most 
recent hrrr and local WRF run which hold off precipitation until 06z 
or later. Should see MVFR conditions linger well into the early morning 
hours tomorrow until conditions improve towards the end of the 
forecast. 




&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...Mitchell 
long term...pmm 
aviation...Mitchell 












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