Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
621 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016 

issued at 348 PM CDT Friday Sep 30 2016 

Tonight- Monday night... 

Main concern will be fog potential overnight and the extent of 
stratocu through Sunday. Otherwise, rather benign weather with 
overall seasonal temperatures...starting out cooler than average over 
the weekend and then warming up for the start of next week. 

Satellite imagery suggests large closed upper system centered over 
the Ohio Valley has retrograded as far west as it will go. Models 
begin to finally lift it northeast and out of our hair tomorrow. 
However, extensive low clouds circulating cyclonically around this 
system will still pinwheel southwest overnight and linger into 
Sunday morning. Temperatures will plummet where skies remain clear 
and as they approach or cross over the afternoon dewpoint 
temperatures fog could begin to form. Believe the far southwest County Warning Area 
is the best candidate for fog. 

Could see some sprinkles over northeast MO Saturday afternoon, 
otherwise, looking dry. 

As the closed upper low moves out an upper ridge will shift east, 
allowing some warm air advection to lift northeast for Monday and 

Tuesday - Friday... 

Medium range models track a large energetic mid/upper level trough 
through The Rockies and lift it northeast through the 
central/northern plains Tuesday through Wednesday night. This will 
bring US our first chance at any meaningful rain in about 2 weeks. 
However, have noticed a trend in the European model (ecmwf) and GFS in that they 
both are lifting the system further north and west. Since the 
associated cold front will be nearly parallel to the upper flow if 
this trend holds it would likely mean a delay in the onset of 
convection and probably a reduction in quantitative precipitation forecast. In collaboration with 
adjacent offices have started this slower trend by lowering pops on 
Tuesday and delaying the eastward extent Tuesday night. Will need to 
see if this trend continues in the models. 

Once the cold front exits to the east we should see only a slight 
cooling as maritime Pacific air moves in so temperatures should be 
close to seasonal values. 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening) 
issued at 603 PM CDT Friday Sep 30 2016 

VFR conditions will continue through the evening with increased 
northeasterly winds weakening after sunset. MVFR stratus will arrive 
from the northwest overnight. This may limit the potential for fog 
formation in the early morning. Areas not influenced by the stratus 
deck will likely see areas of fog, thus will need to monitor the 
progression of stratus layer through the evening. For now, have 
excluded mention in forecast, with the exception of kstj. Cloud 
cover will likely linger through much of Saturday, with gradually 
improving ceiling heights through the day. 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 



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