Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014 

issued at 559 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014 

Not overly impressed on rain chances for this evening. Band of showers 
remains well to the south of the County Warning Area from central OK through south central 
MO while ceilings have improved considerably across most of the County Warning Area. 
Even drizzle chances look puny this evening. Will have to wait for 
the better dynamics to arrive after midnight as a piece of mid level 
energy breaks away from the Texas upper trough and heads northward. 
Under this scenario see no need to carry evening pops so have 
stripped them away for the most part. 


issued at 253 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014 

Stratus and patchy light fog will continue this evening and tonight 
as warm, moist air continues to flow into the region from the south. 
Dense fog still looks possible across northern MO tonight and early 
Sunday morning, but should eventually mix out by mid morning as a 
shortwave trough approaches and the resultant surface low begins to 
deepen over central MO. 

The shortwave trough, currently over SW TX, is still progged to lift 
into central Texas this evening and into southeastern MO by Sunday 
afternoon. Precipitation is still expected to focus near the surface 
low in central to eastern mo; however, the second system that will 
drop southeast out of the northern plains on Sunday has sped up 
slightly, making precipitation along and ahead of its associated 
cold front a bit more likely as it pushes southeastward across the 
County Warning Area Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitation type is still 
expected to be primarily rain with most precipitation occurring where 
surface wet bulb temperatures are around or in excess of +5 c, but a 
brief, light rain/snow mix is possible for any precipitation that 
trails behind the cold front. No snow accumulation is expected due 
to warm ground temperatures and low moisture availability as the 
systems sweep off to our east, and any light wrap-around snow on 
Monday is expected to stay primarily north of our forecast area. 

Temperatures will be chilly Monday and will remain below normal 
through at least Thursday, as several additional shortwave troughs 
dig into the central Continental U.S. And reinforce northwest flow over the 
County Warning Area. Moisture will remain slim as these systems pass through, and 
only a brief window of light snow is possible for far northern and 
northeastern MO Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Otherwise, 
temperatures look like they'll start to gradually recover beyond the 
end of the period as the longwave trough dug out by multiple 
shortwave troughs exits to the east and zonal flow sets up over the 
central Continental U.S.. 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night) 
issued at 1133 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014 

MVFR conditions will prevail initially with gradually diminishing 
conditions expected through the period. Rain chances overnight are 
marginal, but could see some spotty showers into the early morning 
hours. Winds will gradually transition to northwest as a cold front makes 
its way through the area. Expecting to see further reduced ceilings 
and visibilities as increased rain chances set up late Sunday 
afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will pick up coinciding with the frontal 
passage. Also seeing evidence of a rain/snow mix event toward the very 
end of the taf period. 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 



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