Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
319 am CDT Sat Aug 27 2016 


Discussion... 
issued at 319 am CDT Sat Aug 27 2016 


Main forecast challenge in the short term will be precipitation 
chances this morning and again this afternoon as an area of showers 
and storms continues to March across central Kansas. The weak wave which 
forced the area of convection has since lifted to the northeast, and 
support from the low level jet has also waned from west to east, leaving the 
system without much support other than from its own cold pool 
propagation. Some of the trailing stratiform has shown signs of 
dissipation particularly on the western edge; however, recent cloud 
top cooling and a resurgence in lightning activity does not Bode 
well for its near-term dissipation, and some sort of weak mesoscale convective vortex is now 
evident on radar near the northwest side of the precipitation shield 
near Hastings. The general pattern and the development of the mesoscale convective vortex 
should support a more northeastward trend and hopefully a downswing 
in intensity through the morning, so have still trended pops downward 
as the showers and storms progress toward the County Warning Area... but will keep 
a wary eye on any precipitation that tries to impinge on areas that 
have already experienced quite a bit of rainfall in the last few 
days and particularly last night. 


As precipitation dissipates later this morning, some remnant outflow 
boundaries may linger somewhere in the vicinity of northeast Kansas and 
northwest MO, depending strongly on when and where the precipitation 
falls apart. Instability and deep moisture will continue to support 
convection if some sort of feature can spark initiation, so will be 
looking for boundaries to serve as a focus for isolated to widely 
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, and have generally 
broadbrushed the area with 25-40 pops during the afternoon and early 
evening hours. Large-scale forcing will not be as supportive of 
continued convection as the entire pattern shifts north and upper- 
level high pressure becomes more prevalent across the eastern 
plains, so do not expect precipitation to become widespread or to 
persist into the overnight hours tonight; and while very localized 
flash flooding is definitely possible should a thunderstorm pass over 
areas that are already very saturated from recent rain, the heavy 
rain threat looks too marginal and too isolated to warrant any kind 
of Flash Flood Watch. 


A few models indicate the potential for some nocturnal convection to 
develop on the edge of the broadening upper-high on late tonight 
into early Sunday morning, which could then push eastward and pull a 
repeat performance of this morning's challenges on sunday; then, the 
deja vu continues with little forcing but the possibility of outflow 
boundaries and/or general warm-sector convection sparking showers 
and storms throughout the afternoon and early evening Sunday and 
again on Monday. The pattern breaks down a bit by Monday night or 
Tuesday as low pressure dives into the Great Lakes region and allows 
a bit more focused potential for storms during the daylight hours 
Tuesday, but ridging builds in behind for the remainder of the 
forecast period and makes precipitation chances more nebulous for 
Wednesday through the remainder of the period. Temperatures will 
linger around or slightly above normal with the upper-level pattern 
supporting very warm conditions but with some moderation by clouds 
and possible precipitation. 




&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night) 
issued at 1240 am CDT Sat Aug 27 2016 


Main concern in the short term for all taf sites will be the possible 
development of IFR stratus and patchy fog due to local moisture 
pooling from recent rainfall. Have tempo'ed the ceilings as they 
develop over the next few hours, then gone prevailing IFR at mci and 
low-end MVFR at the other sites, but will need to watch and see how 
low ceilings go and how far visibilities can drop as the situation 
develops. Stratus and fog will gradually dissipate after sunrise as 
south southwest winds begin to increase, then another round of 
isolated thunderstorms will become possible as early as 20z Saturday 
afternoon. 




&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...Laflin 
aviation...Laflin 



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