Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
535 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014 


Discussion... 
issued at 321 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014 


Tonight: low stratus has remained in place through the day, with 
pockets of patchy drizzle and fog. Little change is expected 
overnight, with low clouds remaining in place. Patchy fog will be 
possible across the forecast area tonight, although the most 
widespread and dense fog should be to the west of the County Warning Area over 
portions of central Kansas and central Nebraska. Model cross 
sections reveal the deepest low-level moisture to remain over the 
eastern half of the forecast area. Additionally, this area will be 
collocated with periodic weak low-level ascent overnight, suggesting 
the highest potential for drizzle will remain over the southeast 
half of the County Warning Area. Temperatures across the area will remain fairly 
steady, only falling a few degrees overnight from current values. 
Areas with the highest probability of drizzle (se 1/2 cwa) should 
generally remain at or above freezing overnight. Will closely 
monitor outskirts of highest drizzle potential where slightly colder 
temperatures will reside, but believe the overall threat/impact of 
freezing drizzle appears low tonight based on anticipated minimum 
temperatures and primary drizzle domain. 


Saturday/sunday: the upper pattern flattens on Saturday with low 
clouds expected to remain in place through much of the day. There is 
a slight chance some areas may mix sufficiently to allow a few peaks 
of sun by tomorrow afternoon as the low-level saturation becomes 
shallower. Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, with 
highs reaching the upper 30s to middle 40s. The majority of any 
remnant drizzle or fog should end by mid morning, with patchy 
drizzle not returning until late Saturday night into Sunday as 
additional warm air advection and ascent arrive. Highs on Sunday 
will continue to warm into the middle to upper 40s, along with 
surface moisture steadily increasing. 


Sunday night through tuesday: the upper pattern will transition by 
early next week, with a 140+kt upper jet diving towards the Front 
Range of The Rockies. An upper trough will amplify with a series of 
vorticity maximums rotating around the upper low. Precipitation 
chances will increase Sunday night and especially on Monday as 
strong upper ascent and a surface cold front moves through the area. 
Precipitation is expected to be in the from of rain as all the 
lowest 6kft will remain above 0c within the warm sector. Drier air 
will move in behind the front Monday evening, bringing an end to the 
most widespread precipitation. There is a chance for some 
Post-frontal light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, and 
model soundings show much of northwest Missouri to support snow or a 
rain-snow mix during this time. With model differences and details 
still unresolvable, it is too early to determine snow specifics, but 
accumulations look to be on the light side, if any. As for 
temperatures Tuesday, a much colder day is expected with afternoon 
readings generally in the 30s with cloudy skies and breezy 
northwesterly winds. 


Extended: temperatures Wednesday through Friday will initially be 
near seasonal averages, with readings gradually warming. The 
forecast is expected to remain dry through much of mid-week. Models 
have diverged with the behavior of the shortwave trough that moves 
from northern California on Wednesday and moving into the plains on 
Thursday and Friday, with a large spread on the degree of 
amplification over the region by Friday. Likewise, this has a 
significant determination to the anticipated weather and 
precipitation chances. The general track of the system would keep 
the forecast area in the warm sector, yielding warmer temperatures 
and primarily a rain-type event. Still, a good deal of uncertainty 
remains and will closely watch the evolution of the system. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening) 
issued at 535 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014 


Ceilings and visibilities are expected to deteriorate this evening 
and overnight into the IFR or LIFR categories at all taf sites. Some 
light patchy drizzle is possible along with the patchy fog, but 
should slide east of the terminals with time and is not expected to 
create any impact. Ceilings will gradually lift during the late 
morning hours Saturday, but will likely remain IFR through most of 
the day. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...Blair 
aviation...Laflin 



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