Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
636 am CDT Monday may 30 2016 


Discussion... 
issued at 416 am CDT Monday may 30 2016 


Today - wednesday: 


Not much to hang one's hat on to define where/when convection will 
form or move in today. A weak and poorly defined warm front extends 
from central NE through south central Iowa and northeast MO this 
morning. Isolated/elevated convection aided by weak isentropic 
ascent on the 305k surface has sputtered through the night across 
the far northeastern counties. Think this lift will dissipate by mid 
morning. Otherwise, think the County Warning Area will be dry until this afternoon. 
Inspection of local progged soundings reveals a very unstable 
airmass with the cin disappearing this afternoon. Short range 
convective allowing models as well as GFS and NAM paint the picture 
of hit and miss/pulse type convection. 0-6km shear is very weak so 
convection will be sub-severe. 


North Texas mesoscale convective system is heading towards the Gulf and 00z/06z models not 
handling this well which calls into question the vorticity Max the 
GFS and especially the NAM show over OK by 18z. For now will focus 
on diurnally driven/pulse type convection. High temperatures should 
be similar to yesterdays. 


Overnight, convection generated along a weak cold front will likely 
weaken as it heads towards northwest MO after midnight. This 
activity could survive the typical morning dissipation phase and 
sputter around before redeveloping in the afternoon. The 
precipitation and how much/how long the convective cloud debris 
linger will determine the degree of instability and later convective 
potential/coverage. Even if we see moderate instability the severe 
threat will again be muted by weak 0-6km shear in the 15-20kt range. 


The cold front wont reach the region until Tuesday night as it 
awaits the arrival of a moderately strong upstream shortwave. This 
should ensure likely type pops into the evening hours. 


Wednesday will start the transition to a drier period as the cold 
front moves into central MO by late morning. Will keep high chance 
pops over the southeast third of the County Warning Area. 


Thursday - sunday: 


A relatively uneventful and quiet period marked initially by drier 
and more stable air arriving as weak high pressure builds into the 
region. Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal 
readings. 


Faster northwest flow aloft resides across the north central and 
Great Lakes states. Will need to monitor for any buckles in the flow 
signaling a shortwave dropping southeast. GFS picks up on a feature 
forcing a cold front through the mid MO River Valley late Saturday 
whereas the European model (ecmwf) does not. Lacking confirmation and with the 
blended approach only yielding below climatology pops will maintain 
a dry forecast. Do see slightly warmer temperatures and an uptick 
in humidity with the return of southerly flow. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning) 
issued at 633 am CDT Monday may 30 2016 


VFR conditions with light south winds for the morning hours. 
Diurnally driven hit and miss pulse type of afternoon convection. 
Better chance for scattered convection moving into northwest MO after 
midnight. Storms could reach the Kansas City terminals by the pre- 
dawn hours. Ceilings still VFR but lower to the 8-10k agl level. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...mj 
aviation...mj 






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