Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
1206 am CDT Wed Sep 3 2014 


Discussion... 
issued at 339 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


Warm front lifting through the area this evening will bring a return 
to Summer-like heat tomorrow and Thursday. Warm air advection 
associated with the front could bring a few elevated thunderstorms to 
eastern Kansas and western MO toward sunrise as a 35-kt low-level jet 
noses into the region. Upper-level support will be quite weak and 
forcing ahead of the low-level jet will not be terribly focused, so 
conditions do not appear favorable for widespread thunderstorms or 
heavy rain with this activity. However, with MUCAPE values as high as 
2500 j/kg a couple of the stronger updrafts could produce some small 
hail tomorrow morning. This activity should gradually thin out 
through the day as it pushes into central MO, but continued warm air 
advection/isentropic lift and increasing instability could allow for 
some straggling storms into the early afternoon. Due to the 
possibility of clouds and a couple of storms lingering into the 
afternoon, highs were nudged down slightly into the upper 80s to near 
90. 


By Thursday clearing skies and 850 hpa temps rising to as high as 24c 
should allow surface temperatures to rise into the lower to middle 
90s across the forecast area. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, this 
will likely lead to afternoon heat index values in the 99 to 103 
range, particularly over north central Missouri where there could be 
a bit of moisture pooling ahead of an advancing cold front. 


A fairly significant late Summer/early fall cold front will swing 
through the area Thursday night and Friday with a good chance for 
showers and thunderstorms along and behind it. Parameters at this 
time do not appear supportive of widespread heavy rain or strong 
storms with this activity, but wouldn't be surprised if some areas 
picked up between a half inch and an inch of rain. 


Conditions behind this front look fantastic for the upcoming weekend 
with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Pattern then gets more 
active heading into early next week as the front retreats northward 
and interacts with a deeper upper-level trough digging into the 
Midwest. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night) 
issued at 1202 am CDT Wednesday Sep 3 2014 


Thunderstorm complex out in central Kansas is making very slow 
progress eastward toward the terminals. Latest model guidance 
regarding these showers is that they will stay west of the terminals. 
Feeling is that they will get close enough to far eastern Kansas and 
western Missouri to continue mention of the vcts, however confidence 
is dwindling in any of the the terminals receiving any showers. Early 
morning could see some MVFR visible at the terminals, which should 
quickly become VFR shortly after sunrise. Thereafter gusty winds will 
continue pick up through the day, bringing S winds around 15 to 25 
mph. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...hawblitzel 
aviation...Leighton 












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