Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
628 am CDT Fri Oct 31 2014 


Discussion... 
issued at 332 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


In the next 7 days, the main concerns are tonight's temperatures and 
the expected hard freeze, and thunderstorm chances early next week. 


A surge of cold air associated with a deep trough dropping through 
the Midwest is currently pushing into the County Warning Area early this morning, 
and will bring temperatures into the 30s to around 40 degrees by mid 
morning. Although the deck of stratus associated with the colder air 
will move out of the region by mid to late morning, little recovery 
in temperatures is anticipated due to strong cold air advection and 
the arrival of broad, chilly surface high pressure later in the day. 
Highs today will likely top out only in the low to mid 40s, setting 
the stage for an easy fall into the lower to mid 20s tonight under 
clear skies and the surface ridge axis. These conditions will result 
in the first hard freeze of the season tonight, and has prompted the 
issuance of an area-wide freeze warning for tonight and Saturday 
morning. 


Temperatures will begin to rebound Saturday and especially Sunday as 
the trough dives into the southeastern U.S. And then exits off to 
the east, allowing ridging build over the central U.S. And southerly 
flow to return at low levels. This pattern will allow moisture to 
head back into the region as well, which will be important early 
next week as the next system arrives. 


Low pressure currently in the North Pacific will move on-shore this 
weekend, and will eventually swing up into North Dakota by late 
Sunday. This system will push a slow-moving cold front into the 
region Sunday and the County Warning Area by Monday, creating a potential for a few 
nocturnal warm air advection storms Sunday night, and showers/isolated storms for 
Monday through Tuesday night. Highest rainfall amounts should be 
mainly southeast of the kc Metro, but at least a period of showers 
and storms is likely for the entire County Warning Area as the front moves through. 
The front will eventually sink south of the region on Wednesday and 
gradually weaken as the parent system departs into Canada, and mild 
zonal flow will fill in behind, preventing any dramatic swing in 
temperatures on the back side. Temperatures next week will be near 
normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but lows should remain mild 
due to cloud cover and precipitation around the area. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning) 
issued at 628 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


MVFR stratus will continue to push southward and scatter out this 
morning, leaving all taf sites VFR by 13z-14z. North winds will 
continue to gust at 15 to 25 kts this morning, then will gradually 
diminish this afternoon, before becoming light and variable around 
sunset. 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...freeze warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 am CDT Saturday for 
ksz025-057-060-102>105. 


MO...freeze warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 am CDT Saturday for 
moz001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. 


&& 


$$ 


Discussion...Laflin 
aviation...Laflin 



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