Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
250 am CDT Tuesday Jun 28 2016 


Discussion... 
issued at 250 am CDT Tuesday Jun 28 2016 


Thunderstorms have developed early this morning across south central 
NE/north central Kansas in the vicinity of an elevated cold front that 
stretches from northern Kansas into central MO. Water vapor imagery shows 
a weak upper-level wave over central NE that is providing an enhanced 
area of lift for this convection, and this feature is progged to 
start dropping more south than east this morning. This should keep 
most shower and thunderstorm activity to our west later this morning, 
mostly across central Kansas. However, with the elevated boundary 
stretching well to the east toward central MO, there's still a 
slight chance that an isolated shower or storm could develop along 
this feature through the morning hours as it drops south into the 
Missouri Ozarks. 


Cold front dropping in from the north will provide much more 
comfortable temperatures for the next several days with highs in the 
lower to middle 80s through Sunday. Today and tomorrow will feel 
particularly comfortable with dewpoints only in the upper 50s and 
lower 60s before moisture starts to increase later this week. 


An upper ridge over The Rockies will gradually deamplify through the 
end of the week, placing the area in an active northwest-flow 
pattern beginning Wednesday and continuing into the Holiday weekend. 
Low-level ridging to the east will keep the airmass fairly dry on 
Wednesday so that any precipitation should be light and focused 
mainly across eastern Kansas and points west. This ridging will push east 
Wednesday night and Thursday allowing for better precipitation 
chances to spread eastward into much of the forecast area. 


Active northwest flow continues Friday and into the weekend, when 
a stream of Gulf moisture could set the stage for periods of heavy 
rain. Highest heavy rain potential will be focused near a quasi- 
stationary boundary which is progged to settle across southern Kansas 
into the Ozarks Friday and Saturday and then lift north early next 
week. Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) hint at several inches of rain for some 
areas over the weekend, and this does not seem unrealistic given the 
amount of moisture transport that will be feeding into the boundary. 
Current indications are that the heaviest rain will fall to the south 
of I-70, but there's plenty of time for this to change. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night) 
issued at 1133 PM CDT Monday Jun 27 2016 


Main change to the going forecast was to add thunderstorms in the vicinity group for late 
tonight/early Tuesday morning. Radar is showing increasing returns 
over southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri. This appears to be along an 
elevated cold front that is moving southward and aided by subtle 
upper level forcing. While confidence is still low on how widespread 
showers and storms may get, confidence is high enough for mentioning 
in the forecast. These showers and storms may persist for a few hours 
after sunrise before dissipating. Overall, clouds should be VFR with 
bases in storms down to 4000 feet. If a stronger storm moves over a 
terminal then a brief reduction in visibility is possible. Winds will 
remain light through the period and generally be from the northeast. 




&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...hawblitzel 
aviation...cdb 






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