Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
525 PM CST Monday Mar 2 2015 


..updated aviation section... 


Short term...(this evening through tuesday) 
issued at 140 PM CST Monday Mar 2 2015 


An area of low pressure at the surface will deepen along the Lee 
of The Rockies early tonight which will keep a tight surface 
pressure gradient in place across western Kansas. These gusty 
winds will keep the atmosphere near the surface mixed and based on 
expected cloud cover the temperatures overnight are not expected 
to fall much. Lows tonight across western Kansas will be around 32 
degrees. The southerly winds tonight will also draw more humid air 
back into the southwest Kansas which will result in areas of fog 
developing, especially after midnight. At this time dense fog is 
not anticipated given the mixing expected near the surface 
overnight. 


A cold front will cross western Kansas on Tuesday as an upper 
level trough crosses the Central High plains. The low clouds and 
areas of fog ahead of this surface boundary will shift east early 
in the day as the south winds become northwest at 20 to 25 miles per hour. 
Subsidence and drying the the lower levels may give rise to some 
brief clearing late morning, however afternoon clouds are expected 
to return based lingering moisture in the 900 to 850mb level and 
some afternoon warming. Models do indicated some cooling will 
occur during the afternoon behind this front so will favor an 
early high around 40 across north central and west central Kansas. 
Given a later frontal passage the highs will be warmer further 
south. 


Long term...(tuesday night through monday) 
issued at 345 PM CST Monday Mar 2 2015 


A change of importance was made in the forecast regarding Tuesday 
night and Wednesday -- that being the increase in snow chances. 
The entire new 12z suite of models, including both global an 
limited area high- resolution, show anywhere from five-hundredths 
of an inch of quantitative precipitation forecast to two-tenths of an inch, primarily across far 
south central Kansas near the Oklahoma border. All the models are 
apparently still trying to play catch up to what the real 
atmosphere is wanting to do...since two air streams are involved. 
The phasing/interaction between the northern and southern branch 
jet streams is always a problematic challenge, even two days out. 
As such, it appears more jet energy from the northern branch may 
become involved with the southern branch late Tuesday and Tuesday 
night, effectively slowing the entire trough axis down enough to 
delay the onset of the 700mb front. 


A slower 700mb Arctic front passage would mean more time for 
Pacific and Gulf moisture to work its way far enough northwest to 
realize precipitation...and it appears that is what the models are 
all trying to do now. From late Tuesday night through midday 
Wednesday, the GFS, nam12, and European model (ecmwf) all show a tight 700mb 
baroclinic zone moving fairly slowly south through the period...with 
a moistening of the 800-600mb airmass to the Point of saturation, 
especially by 12z Wednesday as the moist southwest momentum 
reaches the advancing front. This southwest to northeast 
orientation of increased frontogenesis would support the lift 
necessary to produce at least sustained light precipitation, if 
not a corridor of banded heavier precipitation. All this is 
justification enough to increase probability of precipitation across the board, including 
some 55+ likely probability of precipitation across far south central Kansas along the 
Oklahoma border. At this time, one to two inches of snow is in 
the latest official forecast for this next event in the likely 
probability of precipitation area (mainly Ashland to Coldwater to Medicine Lodge and 
kiowa) with a half into to inch farther north. 


Beyond this storm, a warming trend is still anticipated late in the 
week as we enter a west-northwest downslope flow regime. Widespread 
50s appear likely by Friday which would continue into the weekend. A 
very minor northwest flow disturbance will likely rotate through the 
pattern at some point during the upcoming weekend, but there will be 
negligible baroclinicity and moisture to work with to produce any 
precipitation. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening) 
issued at 524 PM CST Monday Mar 2 2015 


MVFR conditions will prevail overnight as low levels of the 
atmosphere remain saturated. There could be a few hours of IFR 
conditions after midnight as clouds aoa005 and lower visibilities 
develop. Winds will generally be from the south at 15 to 20 knots 
with some gusts throughout the overnight. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 32 45 15 27 / 10 10 40 40 
gck 32 42 13 25 / 10 10 30 30 
eha 34 46 15 25 / 10 10 40 40 
lbl 33 50 16 26 / 10 10 60 60 
hys 31 41 12 27 / 10 10 20 20 
p28 30 49 18 29 / 10 10 60 60 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...burgert 
long term...umscheid 
aviation...hovorka_42 






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