Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
1200 PM CDT sun Apr 19 2015 

..updated aviation... 

Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 328 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015 

A closed upper level low will gradually move across western 
Kansas this morning and then weaken as it progresses into eastern 
Kansas by this afternoon. A well defined batch of "wraparound" 
rainfall over eastern Colorado this morning will progress eastward 
and weaken as it does. Nevertheless, due to respectable lapse 
rates, some showers are possible with even an isolated 
thunderstorm or two. The precipitation will start out near the 
Colorado border around 6-8 am and then shift eastward through the 
morning. Another batch of showers and thunderstorms will develop 
in south central Kansas this morning ahead of the upper low. None 
of these storms are expected to be severe. Strong northwest winds at 
25-35 miles per hour with gusts to 45 miles per hour can be expected behind the cold front 
today. Clearing is expected this afternoon, allowing temperatures 
to rise into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Surface high pressure 
will move across western Kansas tonight; but winds will be out of 
the west to northwest at 5 to 10 kts instead of light and variable. 
Also, some middle level cloud cover will develop across far western 
Kansas late tonight; and this may also help prevent temperatures 
from dropping to their potential. Nevertheless, some readings in the 
lower to middle 30s are likely from Dodge City north and west by Monday 
morning. Due to the wind and possible cloud cover, opted not to 
issue a frost advisory yet, and will defer to the day shift. We did 
introduce patchy frost into the forecast. 

Long term...(monday through saturday) 
issued at 309 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015 

For Monday, a weak disturbance in northwest flow aloft could bring 
some light showers to the Elkhart area, then slight chances 
overnight across much of southwest and south central Kansas. Not 
alot of rainfall is expected however. Highs Monday with increasing 
cloudiness will be in the low to middle 60s. Overnight lows will range 
from the upper 30s to lower 40s. 

For Tuesday, a few lingering showers are possible mainly east of 
Dodge City in the morning. Highs will be in the middle to upper 60s, 
with overnight lows in the low to middle 40s. 

For the period of Wednesday into next weekend, increasing chances 
for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday as Gulf moisture 
moves into western Kansas. For Thursday an upper level ridge moves 
into the plains with only some sprinkles possible. For Friday, a 
shortwave trough is forecast by the European model (ecmwf) while the GFS lags behind 
with the wave. If the European model (ecmwf) is correct we could see a fairly decent 
shot for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall potential, or if the GFS 
is correct this scenario delayed until Saturday. High temperatures 
will be mainly in the 60s with lows in the 40s. 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon) 
issued at 1200 PM CDT sun Apr 19 2015 

MVFR ceilings will continue through middle afternoon. -Shra also likely, 
although aviation impacts are less likely as activity is fairly light. 
This is in response to a departing synoptic disturbance. Flight conditions 
will improve to VFR after 20-21z. Other concern is northwesterly winds 
of 25-35 knots. These winds will subside down to around 10-15 knots by middle 
evening. Another minor disturbance moves across tomorrow. Some low 
VFR ceilings possible with this second disturbance. 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 59 34 63 40 / 50 0 10 20 
gck 58 33 62 39 / 50 0 10 20 
eha 58 33 64 40 / 30 0 20 20 
lbl 59 34 65 41 / 30 0 20 20 
hys 58 34 62 37 / 60 0 10 10 
p28 63 37 64 42 / 60 0 10 20 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...Finch 
long term...Kruse 

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