Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
500 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 

..updated aviation... 

Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 321 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 

Early today a stationary front that was located near the Nebraska 
border at 00z Tuesday will lift north as an upper level 
disturbance crosses the Central Plains. No major change in this 
air mass expected today across western Kansas and given the 950mb 
to 850mb temperature trends it looks like another afternoon with 
highs climbing back into the 60s. The main exception will be where 
some lingering snow cover remains in west central Kansas. In this 
area temperatures will once again be up to 10 degrees cooler. 

A southerly flow today and tonight will begin to draw more humid 
air back into south central and portions of western Kansas which 
will result in increasing clouds, mainly east of Highway 83. At 
this time model sounding still do not indicating the depth of this 
moisture will be deep enough for drizzle to develop, however cloud 
cover and increasing dew points suggest overnight lows will be in 
the upper 30s to mid 40s. Further west lows are expected to be 
similar to the past few night with temperatures bottoming out into 
the upper 20s to lower 30s 

Long term...(thursday through tuesday) 
issued at 321 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 

Early Wednesday morning another cold front will drop south back 
to near the Nebraska border. This front is forecast to cross 
western Kansas during the day and by late day this front is 
forecast to extend from north central Kansas to extreme southeast 
Colorado, as another upper level disturbance approaches the 
Central High plains from the west. Also on Wednesday a surface 
trough will be crossing western Kansas. This surface trough will 
be located ahead of the southward moving cold front. As this 
boundary moves east the low level moisture that returned to 
portions western Kansas Tuesday night will get shunted east into 
central Kansas. Highs on Wednesday should have no problem 
rebounding back into at least the mid to upper 60s south of the 
cold front. Near the Oklahoma border highs around 70 will not be 
out of the question. North of this cold front will keep afternoon 
highs 5 to near 10f cooler. 

Wednesday night precipitation chances will begin to improve, 
especially near and east of these two surface boundaries given the 
moisture return and warm air advection developing ahead of the 
approaching upper level disturbance. North of these boundaries 
isentropic lift will be improving, especially after 06z Thursday 
so precipitation here may hold off until midnight or a little 
later. At this time some dependencies exists between models on 
magnitude of the lift north of this boundary but even given this 
it does appear some light precipitation will be possible. 

At this time given the temperature profiles precipitation type 
appears to support mainly rain. The exception will be towards 12z 
Thursday in north central and west central Kansas. In this area as 
temperatures fall freezing rain and sleet look more likely. 

Widespread precipitation is then expected to develop across all 
of western Kansas early Thursday and then continue through 
Thursday night as moisture and 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis 
develops and then very slowly sinks south across western Kansas. 
Boundary layer temperatures are expected to be cooling through the 
day on Thursday which will result in the freezing and frozen 
precipitation to spread south and become more widespread. 

Given the latest temperature profiles Thursday and Thursday night 
freezing rain and sleet are expected to over spread all of western 
and south central Kansas late Thursday and early Thursday night. 
Based the the latest top down approach an extended period of 
freezing or frozen precipitation is expected southeast of a Hays 
to Liberal line. In this area ice accumulations are expected. At 
this time there still uncertainty on how much ice will accumulate 
but it does appear that sufficient ice accumulations will exist to 
cause some travel problems. Given this will issue an Special 
Weather Statement. 

Friday and Friday night some light snow will still be possible 
but lift will briefly weakens as a surface ridge axis crosses 
western Kansas.. towards daybreak on Saturday a southeasterly 
upslope flow will begin to develop across western Kansas and 
isentropic lift will be improving in the i290 to i305 level. Upper 
level dynamics will also be improving early this weekend based on 
the latest track of the next upper level wave which will be 
located near the left exit region of a 250mb jet. 

The coldest day of the week will be on Friday when highs that day 
are expected to be around 30 degrees. Saturday will be a little 
warmer but through the weekend period highs are expected to be 
mainly in the 30s. Temperatures may approach 40 degrees in a few 
locations on Sunday in far southwest. Kansas. 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning) 
issued at 500 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015 

LIFR conditions expected for kgck/kddc in association with dense fog. 
Conditions should improve around 15z-16z. VFR should then prevail. Winds 
will be S/SW this morning then eventually become north/NE tonight as a cold 
front traverses across the terminals. 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 63 39 39 24 / 0 50 80 80 
gck 62 34 34 21 / 0 20 80 70 
eha 69 36 36 21 / 0 20 50 70 
lbl 69 42 44 22 / 0 30 70 70 
hys 57 35 35 23 / 10 50 80 80 
p28 66 54 57 28 / 10 70 100 90 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 am CST /5 am MST/ Thursday to 
midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Thursday night for ksz030-031-043>046- 

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday 
for ksz065-066-078>081-086>090. 



Short term...burgert 
long term...burgert 

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