Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
1257 am CDT Sat Sep 20 2014 

..updated for aviation discussion... 

Short term...(this evening through saturday) 
issued at 343 PM CDT Friday Sep 19 2014 

Models have firmly trended toward a farther south solution for the 
northeast tracking tropical storm remnant. As a result heavy rains 
are unlikely tonight, and it's entirely possible for most of the 
area to have trouble even seeing measurable precipitation until 
Sunday. The Canadian model was an outlier the the GFS/NAM/ec with a 
vorticity track far enough north of heavy rain over locations east 
of Liberal to around Coldwater, but it is an outlier. Even the NAM 
remains dry through Saturday despite a trough moving through the 
area and persistent moisture transport. We will maintain low probability of precipitation 
along the southern border as well as increasing (still relatively 
low) probability of precipitation after 18 UTC Saturday over the entire area. Overnight lows 
will be relatively mild with an increase in surface dew points as 
well as increasing middle level cloudiness which should be expected. 

Long term...(saturday night through friday) 
issued at 354 PM CDT Friday Sep 19 2014 

Precipitation chances will continue to be the forecast problem late 
this weekend into next week as low level moisture will be 
recirculating back to the northwest across the High Plains. The 
first chance for thunderstorms will come overnight Saturday 
night/early Sunday morning as the primary polar front moves south 
overnight. Both WRF cores (arw and nmmb) and nam12 have a fairly 
decent convective quantitative precipitation forecast signal in the 06-15z time frame along the 850- 
700mb front, and as a result have bumped up probability of precipitation to 35 to 45 
percent, especially in the 06-12z Sunday time frame. These storms 
will begin to weaken and dissolve after 15z as they approach the 
Oklahoma border, with the remainder of Sunday seeing recovering sky 
cover (especially central and south-central kansas) with 
temperatures warming through the 70s, topping out 80-83f over much 
of the area. Clouds will likely hang on through a longer period of 
the day near the Colorado border as Post-frontal upslope develops, 
helping maintain low level cloudiness. 

A Pacific jet streak will be moving across Southern California into 
The Four Corners region Monday, resulting in further Lee trough 
deepening Monday. This will draw up more low level moisture, 
enhancing the low stratus even more close to the Colorado border. 
This will likely keep temperatures from reaching above lower to middle 
70s. This is also where probability of precipitation will be maintained as deeper moisture 
will likely yield some showers. By late in the day Monday, depending 
on degree of warming and if stratus scatters out, some more vigorous 
thunderstorms will be possible. The directional wind shear through 
the Lower-Middle troposphere will be very good, but the limiting of 
instability due to persistent low cloudiness will prevent widespread 
severe weather risk. The upper level low will travel from northern 
Utah to South Dakota from early Monday morning through Tuesday 
night. Until the trough axis clears western Kansas, high chance probability of precipitation 
will be in the forecast from Monday night through late Tuesday. This 
system will not result in a frontal passage with this first low 
lifting quickly northeast middle-week with a much deeper trough 
developing across the West Coast. A very impressive polar jet will 
impinge on the western Continental U.S. Enhancing the Lee trough late in the 
week with fairly warm lower tropospheric temperatures developing as 
a result. High temperature forecast has been increased Wednesday 
through Friday of next week with forecast highs in the 80s. 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night) 
issued at 1255 am CDT Sat Sep 20 2014 

A cold front will pass across the taf sites between 19-21z, 
resulting in a wind shift to the north/northeast at 10-13kts and 
small chances for thunderstorms at kgck/kddc. Before then, winds 
will be southerly to southwesterly at around 10 kts and VFR 
conditions will prevail. 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 64 82 57 80 / 30 40 10 10 
gck 62 81 58 77 / 30 30 10 20 
eha 61 79 60 75 / 20 30 20 40 
lbl 64 82 60 80 / 30 30 20 20 
hys 60 77 53 76 / 30 20 10 10 
p28 67 85 57 81 / 30 40 10 10 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...Russell 
long term...umscheid 

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