Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
543 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015 


..updated for the aviation discussion... 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 242 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015 


Middle to upper level moisture will increase today from west to east 
allowing cloudy skies to envelop western Kansas by this afternoon. 
There looks to be enough lift across the area in the afternoon for 
precipitation to start to fall in the middle levels. However, with 
the low levels remaining dry this precipitation will most likely 
evaporate before it reaches the ground leading to virga to be 
observed. The better chance of precipitation occurs overnight as 
the lower portions of the atmosphere becomes saturated. This 
precipitation should be light in nature, possibly only falling as 
drizzle at times. Temperatures fall near freezing after midnight 
and this is when the precipitation could mix or turn over to snow 
by sunrise tomorrow. Little to no accumulation is expected as 
ground temperatures will remain warm and most likely melt on 
contact. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies to continue 
overnight. Highs today look to range from the middle 40s across far 
southwestern Kansas to around 50 degrees across the I-70 corridor. 
Lows tonight look to dip to around freezing (32f). 


Long term...(saturday through thursday) 
issued at 324 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015 


The cold front coming through this weekend has slowed a little, and 
will not clear our southern border until Sunday evening. 
Therefore, there will likely be a prolonged period of a rain/snow 
mixture into early afternoon Saturday. Then the southerly flow in 
the south will allow for a change to all light rain Saturday 
afternoon. However, the cold air will settle in Saturday night and 
the precipitation will go back to a rain/snow mix Saturday night. 
This will continue into Sunday morning as an upper trough drags 
across the plains. Precipitation chances will be highest in the 
eastern County Warning Area Saturday, and diminish on Sunday as the system clears 
to the east. Saturday should be a little warmer than previously 
thought, due to the slowing of the front's southward progression. 
Highs should top out in the lower 40s north of I-70, and the 
middle 40s down south along the Oklahoma border. Sunday will be 
considerably colder with clouds, early precipitation and wind shifting 
sharply to the north and increasing into the 18g28mph range. 


Monday should see the upper flow transition from a northwest to a 
more westerly zonal flow. Surface conditions will start to warm 
and the western edge of Kansas will reach to the middle 50s in the 
afternoon, while the east will be considerably cooler in the grip 
of the cold high pressure, with highs in the lower 40s. Tuesday 
may be the next good with highs in the middle to upper 50s. Winds 
Tuesday will be shifting from the southwest in the morning at 
around 10 miles per hour to northwest in the afternoon at 10 to 20 miles per hour. 


Another cold front will surge southward through the plains and 
should cross southwestern Kansas early Wednesday, and bring in 
abundant clouds and cold air with it. No precipitation associated with 
this frontal passage, but there may be few flurries across our 
southern half of the County Warning Area by Wednesday night. The supermodel only 
place 15 percent pops, basically south of Highway 50, and I think 
that is about right. An upper broad trough will be developing over 
the Midwest, and we may see a little synoptic lift over the cold 
air settling in. 


Thursday and Friday will go into warming trend, with thursday's 
high's again ranging from the middle 50s in the west to the lower 
40s in our eastern zones near Saint John and Pratt. If the pattern 
does not change, next Friday could be in the 60s in many 
locations. 


This is the last shift of my 34 year career. It has been nice. 
Signing off.... 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning) 
issued at 540 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015 


Overall, you can expect VFR flight conditions today. Nearly clear 
skies will start out this morning, then some middle level clouds will 
move in. After 03z this evening, some rain and snow will start 
forming, from west to east. Ceilings in this precipitation will likely 
fall to MVFR at first, and trend downward overnight. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 47 33 44 28 / 30 70 50 60 
gck 47 33 43 27 / 40 60 40 50 
eha 44 32 45 29 / 50 60 40 40 
lbl 46 33 46 29 / 50 70 50 60 
hys 48 32 42 25 / 40 80 60 60 
p28 48 34 44 30 / 20 60 70 80 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...hovorka_42 
long term...Burke 
aviation...Burke 



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