Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
343 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


..updated for short term discussion... 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 259 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


A shortwave trough will progress across The Rockies into the 
plains by Wednesday. Ahead of this feature, low level moisture 
will remain in place, with dewpoints in the 50s. Middle to high level 
moisture will spread from the southern rockies across the Southern 
Plains as well. With the rather moist middle levels, capping will be 
very weak; but surface based cape values will only be about 
500-700 j/kg. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in western 
Kansas and progress eastward across the remainder of southwestern 
Kansas and into central Kansas during the afternoon and evening. 
There is some question about the coverage of precipitation given 
the limited instability; but the current forecast looks on track, 
with the highest rain chances in central Kansas. Temperatures 
tonight will probably not fall below the 50s due to the lower 50s 
dewpoints and south wind. Highs on Wednesday should reach into the 
middle to high 70s despite the middle level cloud and possible afternoon 
showers. 


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) 
issued at 222 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


Precipitation will be exiting the region through late Wednesday night 
as an associated synoptic wave moves east. That is pretty much the last 
shot for rain through the rest of the long term domain. 


The rest of the forecast is fairly tranquil as upper level ridging builds 
across the southern and Central Plains through the rest of the business 
week and into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will be above normal 
and warm for this time of year. The warmest day is forecast Friday 
as the ridge is in the closest proximity to the forecast area of 
responsibility along with associated warm 850-hpa temperatures - low 
20cs! Low to middle 80s low reasonable at this time. 


The next change in the synoptic pattern and resultant cooler temperatures 
is possible next Monday in association with a frontal passage. Temperatures 
will then trend to near or perhaps slightly below normal - depending 
on the actual strength of the cold front. Moisture ahead of this boundary 
is forecast to be limited, so models aren't showing much in the way 
of quantitative precipitation forecast. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon) 
issued at 1256 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


A Lee trough will strengthen in the Lee of The Rockies through the 
period, resulting in south winds at 10-13 kts. With the loss of 
the low level upslope flow, low clouds and fog are not expected to 
return. Some middle to high level cloud aoa100 is expected by 12-18z 
as an upper level disturbance approaches; but any shower and 
thunderstorms should hold off until after 18z. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 55 75 53 77 / 10 40 50 0 
gck 53 76 49 77 / 10 30 20 0 
eha 52 73 49 78 / 10 20 10 0 
lbl 53 75 52 79 / 10 30 20 0 
hys 55 75 51 73 / 10 60 70 0 
p28 56 77 56 79 / 10 40 50 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...Finch 
long term...Sugden 
aviation...Finch 






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