Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
1215 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014 


..updated synopsis and aviation discussion... 


Synopsis... 
issued at 1211 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014 


At 00z Saturday a -17c 500mb trough was centered over Idaho with 
a 300mb jet streak extending from the base of the this upper 
trough north northeast into the Central High plains. Further south 
near the right exit region of the upper level jet another upper 
level disturbance across southwest New Mexico. Just east of this 
upper level system a wedge of higher 700mb and 500mb dew points 
were observed across West Texas and western Kansas. Scattered 
convection which was ongoing across the Texas Panhandle and 
southwest Kansas appeared to relate well to the 700mb moisture 
axis ahead of the approaching New Mexico upper level system. At the 
surface at 00z Saturday a trough extended from northeast New 
Mexico into southwest Kansas. A cold front was located from 
eastern Colorado into south central Nebraska. 850mb temperatures 
varied from 22c at North Platte to 27c at Dodge City to 29c at 
Amarillo and +13c 700mb temperatures were reported at Dodge City 
and Amarillo at at 00z Saturday. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through saturday) 
issued at 352 PM CDT Friday Aug 22 2014 


Subtropical high pressure will continue along the Gulf Coast while a 
progressive upper level long wave trough gradually progresses toward 
the central part of the country by mid week. Temperatures will 
remain well above seasonal averages through the weekend with only 
brief cooling behind a weak cold front Saturday night and Sunday. 
The numerical models are in good agreement in the near term and 
appear reasonable, although they have struggled with the position of 
the weak surface trough/stationary front extending from southeast 
Colorado into northeast Kansas. The biggest challenge for the short 
term is anticipating evolution of thunderstorms tonight and timing 
the northward progression of the weak front as a modest low level 
jet develops this evening. 


Very rich mid level moisture covered the central United States this 
morning with 700 mb dewpoints near 5c in the tropical plume extending 
from old Mexico to the Central Plains. A vigorous upper level trough 
was evident in central New Mexico early this afternoon, and the 
upper level trough will progress across western Kansas to central 
Nebraska by Saturday morning. An upper level vorticity maximum 
evident in eastern Arizona will progress into Kansas Saturday 
morning as the vigorous northern stream upper level trough over the 
Pacific northwest drops into the mean long wave trough position. A 
subtropical jet streak with h25 winds in excess of 60kts will move 
into eastern Colorado early tonight and into western Nebraska 
Saturday morning. Upper level divergence in the entrance region of 
the jet streak will support large scale upward vertical motion this 
evening, especially across eastern Colorado into northwestern 
Kansas. 


Scattered thunderstorms with little organization developed early 
this afternoon across far southwest Kansas, where surface 
temperatures near 100 degrees overcame residual cin on soundings. 
Mid level flow in western Kansas was weak, and limited shear with 
backing winds in the mid levels is not favorable for development of 
rotating updrafts. The potential exists for microbursts with 
inverted v soundings through the late afternoon and evening hours. 
The better potential for more organized thunderstorms will exist 
later this evening in northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas as 
shear increases over rich low level moisture north of the surface 
boundary. The boundary likely will lift northward slowly this 
evening, and the best baroclinic zone likely will extend from 
northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska by 06z. Upward vertical 
motion in the entrance region of the jet will support another area 
of thunderstorms that will move from eastern Colorado into western 
Kansas this evening. Divergence aloft should be sufficient to keep 
scattered showers and thunderstorms going well into the night in 
western Kansas, and some high based showers may persist until 
sunrise. South winds 10 to 15 knots will keep temperatures warm 
tonight, and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be expected. 


Saturday will be very warm again with 800 mb temperatures from 25c to 
30c during the afternoon hours. Weak upward vertical motion in 
advance of the Arizona upper level trough likely will be sufficient 
to support development of widely scattered thunderstorms during the 
afternoon hours. Instability will be marginal on Saturday with 
dewpoints only in the 50s in southwest Kansas, but inverted v 
soundings will support the potential for microbursts. 


Long term...(saturday night through friday) 
issued at 404 PM CDT Friday Aug 22 2014 


Hot temperatures and periodic tstorm chances will continue for the extended 
period. On Sunday, a weak front will move across the region, although 
temperature advection associated with the front is not that strong. 
The net result is continued temperatures in the 90s. A few thunderstorms 
may develop towards the afternoon and evening hours along the front. 
This front will stall out across the region towards the beginning of 
the next business week. The European model (ecmwf) does continue the trend of keeping 
at least 2/3rds of the County Warning Area in the warm sector, so not confident on 
much of a cool down in averaging the area as a whole. Tstorms during 
this period will remain isolated/widely scattered. The highest chance 
for storms is during the middle portion of next week as a trof with 
upper level dynamics moves across the western Kansas. We could also 
see the "coolest" temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, but really, temperatures 
will be slightly below or near normal. Beyond that, stuck with the allblend 
temperatures. The 12z European model (ecmwf) would suggest slightly cooler temperatures 
than compared to the official grids to close out the next business week. 
This would not last long though, as warm air advection returns ahead 
of the next synoptic trof approaching from the northwest. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night) 
issued at 1211 am CDT Sat Aug 23 2014 


Scattered convection will gradually taper off through the predawn 
hours as the right exit region of an upper level jet lifts north 
towards the Nebraska border. 00z NAM bufr soundings indicating 
that ceilings overnight and early Saturday will be between 7000ft 
and 15000ft above ground level. A trough of low pressure will be located near the 
Colorado border during the day on Saturday which will keep the 
surface winds southerly across western Kansas. Wind speeds will 
increase into the 15 to 20knot range by late morning. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 70 94 69 96 / 20 10 20 20 
gck 67 93 67 95 / 10 10 10 20 
eha 66 93 67 94 / 10 10 20 20 
lbl 69 95 69 96 / 10 20 20 20 
hys 69 94 68 95 / 20 10 20 30 
p28 73 98 70 98 / 10 20 20 10 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...burgert 
short term...ruthi 
long term...Sugden 
aviation...burgert 



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