Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
100 am CST Thursday Nov 27 2014 


..update to short term... 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 100 am CST Thursday Nov 27 2014 


Short range models indicate a northwesterly flow aloft persisting 
across the western High Plains today as the upper level ridge in the 
intermountain west edges slowly eastward. A weaker flow aloft 
combined with a very dry air mass across the region will keep precipitation 
out of the area through Thursday night. Temperatures will be well 
above normal today as a Lee side trough develops across eastern 
Colorado later this morning. This will turn the low level flow 
southerly for much of the day, drawing warmer air northward into 
western Kansas. The NAM/GFS show 850 mb temperatures ranging from 
around 10c in central Kansas to the lower teens(c) closer to the 
Colorado border. Along with the help of some downsloping in 
extreme southwest Kansas by this afternoon, look for highs up into 
the 50s(f) across central Kansas this afternoon where cirrus may 
linger to the 60s(f) in extreme southwest Kansas. Low 
temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer with lows down into 
the upper 20s(f) in central Kansas to the lower to middle 30s(f) in 
extreme southwest Kansas. 


Long term...(thursday night through wednesday) 
issued at 310 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014 


There isn't a whole lot that has changed in the overall thinking 
regarding sensible weather in the long term (this weekend into early 
next week) across southwestern Kansas. Friday and Saturday appear to 
still be on track for very mild weather. The GFS has trended toward 
the European model (ecmwf) regarding Saturday temps, and we have boosted the highs 
Saturday to around for much of the region west and south of a Garden 
City to Dodge City to Greensburg to Coldwater line. With the broad 
Lee trough axis generally over the western Kansas region both Friday 
and Saturday, winds will be relatively weak. The Arctic air will be 
awaiting, though, up north this weekend. The timing of the Arctic 
front is a big challenge, as it now appears it may hold off just 
long enough to squeeze in one more (at least half) day of mild 
temperatures before the other shoe falls. The front will likely move 
through late morning now (instead of pre-dawn like it was thought 
earlier), with the robust temperature drop lagging behind an hour or 
two, such that we will now likely see our highs around noon for most 
locations. When the temperature falls afternoon Sunday, it will be 
abrupt on strong north-northeast winds. We will probably see 
temperatures fall some 30 degrees over the span of just 3 to 5 
hours. The official hourly temperature grids for Sunday will try to 
reflect a non-diurnal curve with temperatures falling in the 
afternoon. Monday temperatures were dropped about 5 to 7 degrees 
across the board, and that may not be enough. It does not appear 
there will be much in the way of cloud cover Monday, so insolation 
will help some, otherwise we would certainly be stuck in the middle 20s 
all day. This Arctic air will likely not last, as it will be 
shallow, thanks to continued strong Cross-Mountain momentum helping 
re-establish the Lee trough up and down the High Plains. Tuesday 
temperatures may rebound back to the upper 40s to around 50, 
although a secondary cold front will bring some of this (modified) 
airmass back into southwestern Kansas mid-week. The forecast will 
remain dry through the entire period as this fast, zonal pattern 
does not favor precipitation on the central and southern High Plains 
this time of year. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night) 
issued at 1102 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014 


VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites through Thursday 
evening. Light and variable winds overnight will become southerly 5 
to 15kt toward daybreak as surface high pressure in the northern 
plains continues to shift eastward. The southerly winds will then 
increase up to around 15 to 25kt through early Thursday afternoon as 
a Lee side trough of low pressure develops across eastern Colorado. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 60 30 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 
gck 65 28 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 
eha 68 33 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 
lbl 67 30 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 
hys 53 28 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 
p28 57 30 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...jjohnson 
long term...umscheid 
aviation...jjohnson 






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