Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
650 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015 


..updated aviation section... 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 322 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015 


Main issue this morning is unforecast fog. Visibilities continue 
to crash and several sites have been at dense fog advisory. Have a 
dense fog advisory along and east of Ellis to Comanche counties. 
It might need to be expanded a bit west towards Dodge City, but 
not sure of this just yet. Fog should erode around 9am or so. 


Otherwise, Summer continues with hot temperatures and southerly 
winds. Smoke may hamper temperatures a bit, but winds will not be 
from the northeast either. Lows will be in the 60s for Monday 
morning. 


Long term...(monday through saturday) 
issued at 322 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015 


European model (ecmwf) continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for 
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with 
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot 
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a 
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night, 
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height 
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and 
25-30c 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues 
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow 
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops 
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall 
synoptic pattern suggests hot. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning) 
issued at 648 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015 


The ending of dense fog will be the main forecast challenge this 
morning. Prevailing LIFR category fog conditions were carried at ddc 
and hys where conditions have oscillated between one half and one 
quarter mile the last few hours. 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery 
indicates the fog bank is moving near gck as well, however this 
occurrence is not yet certain. One the fog lifts mid morning VFR 
category will prevail through the remainder of the day. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 92 65 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 
gck 94 65 98 68 / 0 0 0 10 
eha 94 68 98 68 / 0 0 10 20 
lbl 94 67 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 
hys 95 67 98 68 / 0 0 0 0 
p28 95 70 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for ksz031-046- 
064>066-078>081-088>090. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...99 
long term...99 
aviation...Russell 



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