Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
612 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014 


..updated for aviation... 


Short term...(this evening through thursday) 
issued at 346 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014 


The shortwave trough bringing surface high pressure and cooler 
weather to western Kansas this afternoon will progress southeastward 
from the northern plains today into the Midwest by Thursday. Upper 
level ridging will generally persist across the southern rockies. 
However, a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific northwest this 
afternoon will progress northeastward into Alberta and Saskatchewan 
by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, surface pressures will 
fall across the central and northern plains as a result of downslope 
mid level flow across The Rockies. This will result in a rapid 
return to southerly winds tonight and Thursday along with warmer 
temperatures. Lows tonight will be prevented from falling much below 
the upper 60s by winds that will generally be around 10 kts while 
shifting to the southeast and south. I opted to undercut the NAM 2m 
temperatures for Thursday since this model has a consistent warm 
bias in this wetter Summer. Dodge City may hit 100f or fall just 
short. 


Long term...(thursday night through wednesday) 
issued at 201 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014 


Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the County Warning Area reaching 
100+f degrees. Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to 
the lower 60s east, resulting in heat indices in the 98 to 102f 
range. If surface moisture changes prior to then, a heat advisory 
may be required. The strong upper high pressure over West Texas, 
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and 
Lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and 
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses. 
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and 
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming 
east and southeast near our area. Sunday will see more chances for 
thunderstorms in our west near the Lee side trough, with better 
chances for convection across all of our County Warning Area Sunday night. The 
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back 
across as an upper wave Tuesday. The 40 percent chances for storms 
in day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the 
consall pops for now. 


As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday. As stated 
above, 100+ Max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about 
as hot on Saturday with Max temps at or just above 100f to 101f 
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend 
as clouds and precip chances increase. Highs will be in the lower 
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday. 
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through 
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday 
through Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening) 
issued at 609 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014 


VFR conditions can be expected tonight into Thursday. An upper 
level ridge will dominate the Central Plains with light southeast 
winds becoming south to southwest at 15-25kt after 17z. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 69 99 74 100 / 0 0 10 10 
gck 69 101 73 101 / 0 0 10 10 
eha 70 100 72 101 / 10 0 10 10 
lbl 69 101 73 101 / 10 0 10 10 
hys 69 99 74 100 / 10 0 10 10 
p28 71 98 74 100 / 0 0 10 10 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...Finch 
long term...Burke 
aviation...Kruse 












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