Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
1200 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015 


..updated aviation... 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 400 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015 


Water vapor loop + rap analysis during the overnight hours revealed 
a split jet synoptic setup across western North America with ridging 
in the northern branch across the central/northern rockies. South of 
the northern Branch Ridge, an upper low in the southern stream was 
moving through central Baja California California with high level cirriform 
cloud spreading into southwest Texas. Western Kansas was influenced 
by a fairly weak northwest flow in the upper troposphere downstream 
from the aforementioned ridge axis. A storm system in the northern 
branch was moving into the Pacific northwest region, which will 
allow a deepening Lee trough across the northern and Central High 
plains late today. This will result in a veering of surface winds 
from the east-northeast this morning to the southeast by afternoon 
across western Kansas. The really weak front that pushed through 
overnight will dissolve completely with southeast winds developing 
all the way down into the Southern Plains by tonight, this will open 
the floodgates to some fairly abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture into 
Kansas. Surface dewpoints will rise to the Lower-Middle 50s, 
particularly east of Highway 283 after 06z tonight. This abundance 
of moisture should result in some very low stratus and/or areas of 
fog. We will keep the fog mention out of the forecast for now, but 
the day shift will need to re-evaluate this. As far as temperatures 
go today, highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide are forecast, 
which is no change from the previous forecast. Tonights temperatures 
should be mild with the increase in low level moisture with lows in 
the lower to middle 50s along/east of Highway 283. 


Long term...(wednesday through monday) 
issued at 400 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015 


Some of the warmest temperatures of the season so far, if not the 
absolute warmest will be felt across central answer southwest Kansas on 
Wednesday afternoon. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS are in good agreement with a 
broad surface low pressure developing over western KS, drawing a 
Colorado airmass downslope across western Kansas and promoting strong 
adiabatic warming in addition top strong insolation. At this time 
even the blend solutions suggest middle to upper 80s across all of 
western and central Kansas, which probably suggests 90 degrees might 
be possible especially in the Red Hills region. Overall the area 
appears too dry for convection in the western sections of the ddc 
forecast area on Wednesday. However a cold front is expected to 
arrive late, which will be the focus for showers and storms well to 
the east of the region, and cannot be ruled out along the front into 
central Kansas if surface moisture convergence becomes strong. For 
this reason, we've left the probability of precipitation unchanged in the 20 to 30 percent 
range for this timeframe. Moreover the mesoscale convective allowing 
models indicate convection could start much earlier along the 
diffuse dryline and better moisture zone, which would lend itself 
to a favored chance for a few severe storms with hail. 850-500 mb 
MUCAPES on the order of 1500 j/kg and potentially 30+ knots of 
bulk shear may spawn a few mainly hail producing supercells east 
of a WaKeeney to garden line. A limited portion of central Kansas 
is currently outlooked for a slight risk of severe. 


Diurnal high temperatures will slide through the 60s on Friday and 
into the 50s by Friday influenced by cold advection, clouds and 
rain Thursday night. Snow showers are possible as well far west, 
although at this time a large degree of uncertainty exists with 
respect to surface temperatures. Any snow developing would be highly 
dependent on the surface wet bulb cooling. The left front exit 
region of the upper jet should intersect a middle level baroclinic zone, 
during this timeframe, promoting higher confidence and thus 
increased probability of precipitation Thursday night. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon) 
issued at 1200 PM CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015 


Moisture from Oklahoma should continue to advect northward through the 
overnight period. The main question for now is how low visible will get 
in association with the increasing moisture and br. For now, will trend 
down and put MVFR conditions for kddc for tomorrow morning. Some guidance 
is lower than MVFR and will let later shifts adjust as certainty increases 
with time. Not confident enough to have lower flight conditions for 
kgck/khys at this time. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
issued at 400 am CDT Tuesday Mar 31 2015 


Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Wednesday, although 
red flag conditions do not appear likely to occur. A dry airmass 
will descend across the plains into central Kansas early Wednesday 
allowing temperatures to soar and relative humidities to plummet to 
20 percent and lower. Single digit relative humidities are possible 
in the far west where well cured fuels are still found. The level of 
uncertainty is focused really only on wind speeds which at this time 
do not appear strong enough to warrant Fire Weather Watch headlines. 
A cold front Thursday bears watching, however temperatures should be 
significantly cooler. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 83 54 89 46 / 0 10 40 50 
gck 82 51 89 42 / 0 0 40 40 
eha 80 51 86 43 / 0 0 20 10 
lbl 82 52 89 45 / 10 0 30 10 
hys 83 53 86 44 / 0 0 40 50 
p28 83 55 87 52 / 10 10 30 30 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...umscheid 
long term...Russell 
aviation...Sugden 
fire weather...Russell 






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