Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
1200 PM CDT Tuesday may 24 2016 

..updated aviation... 

Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 415 am CDT Tue may 24 2016 

There is a lot of uncertainty in the mesoscale details of the 
forecast today. The big convective cluster that has been nearly 
stationary since midnight in northern Kansas still had not 
developed enough of a cold pool to organize into a forward 
propagating mesoscale convective system as of 09z. Most of the short term convective 
allowing models suggest that the cluster will begin propagating 
southeast during the early morning hours with outflow spreading 
back west of Dodge City by late morning. A subtle upper level 
trough that appears in WV imagery in central New Mexico should 
propagate into western Kansas by early afternoon. A surface 
cyclone in southeast Colorado should remain nearly stationary, and 
the models suggest that a dryline will mix east into southwest 
Kansas and may reach a line from Garden City to Liberal by mid 
afternoon. A subsynoptic cyclone likely will exist near the 
intersection of the old outflow boundary with the dryline 
somewhere near Dodge City late this afternoon. Extremely moist air 
will continue to flow into western Kansas, and the mid level warm 
pool will keep convection from firing until late afternoon. 
Convergence along the old outflow boundary and the dryline with 
afternoon heating and some marginal upper level divergence with 
the weak upper level trough should be sufficient to initiate 
thunderstorms. Although high level flow is not terribly strong, 
30-35 knot shear from surface to 6 km should support rotating 
updrafts. As such, a few supercells are likely late this afternoon 
before the thunderstorms organize upscale into a mesoscale convective system that will 
propagate across southern Kansas during the evening hours. A 
tornado is possible where low level shear is maximized near the 
intersection of the outflow boundary and the dryline. 

The vigorous upper level trough evident on satellite imagery over 
California early this morning should eject rapidly northeast as 
the next trough rotating around the gyre in the western United 
States drops southeast from near 40n/130w into Southern California 
by Wednesday morning. The trough currently over California should 
reach the Dakotas by Wednesday morning, and falling pressures in 
the northern plains will veer the low level flow in western Kansas 
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The deep moisture should be scoured 
out of western Kansas on Wednesday, and temperatures likely will 
warm to near 90 with 800 mb temperatures in the mid 20c range. The 
potential for thunderstorms Wednesday is minimal. 

Long term...(wednesday through monday) 
issued at 415 am CDT Tue may 24 2016 

An active flow regime will continue with a mean long wave trough 
in the western United States and ridging in the eastern part of 
the country through early June. Minor waves will continue to 
ripple through the southwest flow aloft and provide opportunities 
for thunderstorm development nearly every day. The upper level 
cyclone that digs into California Wednesday will move into eastern 
Colorado by Friday morning. Surface cyclogenesis will occur in 
eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon, and low level moisture should 
surge back into southwest Kansas by Thursday afternoon. Another 
round of thunderstorms is likely Thursday afternoon near and east 
of the dryline position and near a weak stationary front across 
northern Kansas. A Pacific cold front will move into western 
Kansas Friday, and additional thunderstorm development can be 
expected under the cold pool with the upper level cyclone. 
Saturday probably will be quiet, but another minor wave in the 
southwest flow will approach the Central Plains on Sunday. Yet 
another minor wave should approach Kansas Monday afternoon. 

Temperatures will be above seasonal averages with highs in the 
80s and lows in the 50s and lower 60s through the week. There is 
little indication that a strong subtropical high will build into 
the plains through at least mid June, although there may be a 
brief period of anticyclogenesis in the central part of the 
country around 9-11 June. An active flow regime characterized by a 
mean trough in the western United States and ridging in the 
eastern part of the country appears to be the base state of the 
atmosphere for the foreseeable future. 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon) 
issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue may 24 2016 

Kddc is slowly improving out of LIFR conditions this morning and should 
be MVFR by 19z. Kgck/khys will remain VFR. Attention then turns to afternoon 
convection. Latest guidance has the dryline east of kgck, so don't have 
ts/cumulonimbus in the taf. Do have cumulonimbus/ts first for kddc and then later for khys 
this afternoon and evening. Kddc stands the best chance for seeing +tsra. 
Otherwise, winds will be east-southeast to south-southeast 12-25 kt. 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 84 61 89 56 / 50 50 10 0 
gck 87 58 89 53 / 10 10 10 0 
eha 88 55 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 
lbl 89 56 91 54 / 20 10 0 0 
hys 80 62 88 57 / 50 30 10 10 
p28 84 65 91 66 / 40 50 10 10 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...ruthi 
long term...ruthi 

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