Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
604 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 30 2016 


..updated aviation... 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016 


Precip chances will persist tonight into Wednesday regardless of 
an upper level ridge of high pressure moving out of the northern 
rockies into the northern plains. Although the flow aloft will 
remain fairly weak, ample instability combined with steepening 
lapse rates may be sufficient enough to support isolated 
thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening. 
Considering the rich moist air mass, periods of heavy rainfall 
will be possible with some areas seeing in excess of 1 to 2 inches 
of rain, increasing the potential for localized flooding. 
Otherwise, weak vertical shear profiles will hinder the potential 
for severe. 


Once again, the air mass will change very little during the period 
while surface dewpoints remain primarily in the 60s(f). Lows are 
expected back down into the 60s(f) across much of the area with the 
lower 70s(f) possible in south central Kansas. Depending on wetter 
ground and increased cloud cover, highs are only expected to 
reach the 70s(f) in some locations Wednesday afternoon with the 
lower to mid 80s(f) possible in south central Kansas. 


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) 
issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016 


Precip chances will lessen Thursday as an upper level ridge of high 
pressure shifts further east across the northern plains while surface 
high pressure across the upper Midwest helps usher drier air 
southwestward into central and portions of western Kansas. A weak flow 
aloft and a lack of instability will likely limit precip chances across 
much of the area through the end of the week. However, thunderstorm 
chances return to extreme southwest and west central Kansas Friday 
evening as a southwesterly flow aloft develops across the central 
rockies ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Diurnal 
thunderstorms are expected to develop Lee of The Rockies within a 
southeasterly upslope flow Friday afternoon with storms potentially 
drifting into extreme western Kansas Friday evening. 


Temperatures will remain a little below normal Thursday as a slowly 
developing southeasterly upslope flow is slow to erode the cooler 
air mass across the High Plains. The NAM/GFS show 850 mb temperatures 
around the mid teens(c) across central Kansas to near 20c closer 
to the Colorado border. Highs can be expected up into the lower 
to mid 80s(f) Thursday afternoon. A general warming trend is then 
likely through the weekend as the low level flow gradually becomes 
more southerly, drawing warmer air northward into the High Plains. 
Highs may reach the lower 90s(f) by Sunday afternoon. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening) 
issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016 


Tricky forecast period because of high uncertainty in how scattered 
showers and tstorms will evolve. Current radar has storms not impacting 
the terminals right now. Will watch and amend as necessary. Not clear 
how storms will evolve. There may be additional activity through the 
overnight and have prob30 to cover basis. Otherwise, winds will be north 
to NE 5-15 kt and cigs should primarily be VFR, except near heavy precip 
for only localized periods. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 65 80 62 79 / 60 50 40 30 
gck 63 80 61 80 / 60 40 30 30 
eha 62 80 60 80 / 70 40 40 30 
lbl 65 80 62 80 / 70 40 40 40 
hys 63 77 60 79 / 60 50 20 10 
p28 68 83 65 82 / 60 60 40 20 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...jjohnson 
long term...jjohnson 
aviation...Sugden 






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