Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
337 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014 


..updated long term section... 


Short term...(this evening through sunday) 
issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014 


Tonight: 


Forecast concern for this evening is dense fog and dense freezing fog. 
BUFKIT plumes and well as model guidance from the NAM and both cores 
of the WRF all show dense fog forming across the forecast area after 
midnight. As a result, have issued a dense fog advisory from midnight 
until 9 am CST. There is more uncertainty for the fog extent on the 
western and northern edges of the advisory, but have decided to be more 
Liberal with areal coverage and later shifts can trim down if necessary. 
There also could be some patchy drizzle towards morning near Pratt and 
Medicine Lodge, but soundings suggests more of stratus and/or fog rather 
than drizzle. Will maintain the low probability of precipitation for now. Otherwise, lows will 
be in the 20s west where there is no cloud cover/fog to middle to upper 
30s east/southeast where winds, slight higher dewpoints, and cloud 
cover will keep mins up a bit more. 


Tomorrow: 


Other than some morning fog, fairly tranquil conditions are expected 
tomorrow. Lee troughing will continue across the High Plains. Went with 
slightly lower maximums from Dodge City to Stafford areas where lingering 
clouds/fog will slow the rate of heating just a bit more. 40s here and 
50s elsewhere. 


Long term...(sunday night through saturday) 
issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014 


An intense upper tropospheric jet coming on shore the Pacific 
northwest will lead to deep trough development through the early 
part of this period (monday and tuesday). The trough will develop 
over the central Continental U.S. (Versus the southwest conus), which does not 
favor accumulating precipitation across southwest Kansas. The 
airmass behind the storm will also not be all that cold on Tuesday. 
Nevertheless, we will be carrying some slight chance for rain 
showers as the 700mb cold front moves through late Sunday 
night/early Monday, but again, cyclogenesis at this level will be 
well off to the northeast across northern Iowa and southern 
Minnesota (monday night). Onset of strongest cold advection on north- 
northwest winds will occur late Monday night and continue through 
the day Tuesday. A very tight height gradient will occur in the 850- 
700mb layer which will support strong winds at the surface. In fact, 
we will likely be looking at sustained winds during the late morning 
through afternoon Tuesday time frame of 25+ knots. We have boosted 
the wind grids a few knots with the increased confidence in the 
strong north winds. 


The deep trough will finally pull away middle-week with flat ridging 
building in to The Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains. This 
will favor lower tropospheric downslope warming again toward 
Wednesday and especially Thursday. Another synoptic trough will take 
shape across the intermountain west on Christmas day, however 
Christmas day itself should be rather mild with the Lee trough in 
place (and strengthening) with south to southwest winds. It is 
still fairly unclear how this late-week storm system will evolve, 
but latest trends suggest it will also develop and mature to our 
north, leaving our region dry. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon) 
issued at 1111 am CST Sat Dec 20 2014 


Forecast concern is the probability of dense fog. Have inserted 1/4sm 
and fog for kgck/kddc. Confidence is lower for khys. The LIFR conditions 
should begin to improve by 15z tomorrow. Winds will be southerly 
to southwesterly 5-10 knots. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 33 45 35 52 / 0 10 10 20 
gck 27 50 34 51 / 0 10 10 20 
eha 27 57 35 51 / 0 0 20 20 
lbl 31 51 35 53 / 0 0 10 20 
hys 31 48 35 50 / 0 10 20 10 
p28 37 47 37 54 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
dense fog advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am CST Sunday for 
ksz030-031-043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...Sugden 
long term...umscheid 
aviation...Sugden 






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