Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
537 am CST sun Dec 4 2016 


..update to aviation... 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 216 am CST sun Dec 4 2016 


Patchy fog will remain present over the first couple of hours this 
morning with mostly clear skies anticipated for the remainder of 
the day through tonight. Winds will generally be from the 
northwest this morning shifting to more of a southerly direction 
by this evening and continuing through tonight. This is due to the 
dome of high pressure sliding into the Southern Plains with 
troughing developing across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, 
highs today look to reach to around 50 degrees with lows tonight 
in the mid to upper 20s. 


Long term...(monday through saturday) 
issued at 216 am CST sun Dec 4 2016 


An upper level disturbance will move into the northern plains 
Monday and help push a surface cold front through western Kansas 
Monday afternoon into Monday night. Southerly winds will be felt 
ahead of this front with gusty northerly winds behind it. No 
precipitation is expected at this time with only a slight increase 
in cloud cover. A more vigorous shortwave will then move through 
the central rockies and into the Central Plains Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. This will bring another shot of cold air to western 
Kansas. The atmosphere above western Kansas will become saturated 
at this time bringing mostly cloudy skies and a chance of 
precipitation. Temperatures in the lower levels should remain 
below zero leading to all snow in the forecast. With the strong 
northerly winds behind this front, blowing snow will be possible, 
especially during the day Wednesday. Dry conditions are then 
anticipated through at least Friday as high pressure dominates the 
region. Another storm system is depicted by the extended models. 
This will need to be monitored as time passes. As for 
temperatures, highs look to reach into the lower 50s Monday then 
plummet into the 30s Tuesday with mid to upper 20s expected 
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs then rebound into the 30s Friday 
with 40s on Saturday. Lows will start out ranging from the teens 
along the Kansas/Colorado border Monday night then down into the single 
digits by Wednesday morning. Lows then rebound into the lower 20s 
by Saturday. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning) 
issued at 532 am CST sun Dec 4 2016 


VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites through late this evening. 
Westerly winds 5 to 15kt will persist across western Kansas through 
late this afternoon as surface high pressure remains situated across 
the Colorado rockies. Winds will then turn southwesterly 5 to 15kt 
this evening as a Lee side trough of low pressure develops across 
eastern Colorado. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 50 29 53 23 / 0 0 0 0 
gck 50 29 54 22 / 0 0 0 0 
eha 49 29 58 21 / 0 0 0 0 
lbl 50 28 56 23 / 0 0 0 0 
hys 48 29 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 
p28 54 28 55 29 / 10 0 0 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...hovorka_42 
long term...hovorka_42 
aviation...jjohnson 



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