Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
548 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


..updated for aviation... 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 123 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


Short range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure 
drifting slowly east across the western High Plains today. Along 
with a weak flow aloft, dry conditions will persist across western 
Kansas through Friday night. Temperatures will climb well above 
normal today as weak Lee side troughing helps direct a 
southwesterly downslope flow across western Kansas. The NAM/GFS 
show 850 mb temperatures up around 20c across central Kansas to near 
25c in extreme southwest Kansas by this afternoon. Even with some 
higher clouds likely, expect highs well up into the 80s(f) this 
afternoon. Temperatures will drop back down into the 50s(f) for 
lows late Friday night. 


Long term...(saturday through thursday) 
issued at 223 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


Dry and warm weather is on tap for the weekend ahead of the next 
large scale upper level trough moving into the western U.S. An upper 
level ridge will build into the Central Plains on Saturday, with dry 
southwesterly upper level flow on Sunday, pushing very warm air 
across the plains. Highs for the weekend look to be into the middle to 
upper 80s and lows in the 50s with light southwest to south winds 
and mostly clear skies. 


On Monday, as the upper level trough begins to move into the plains, 
a cold front will move across western Kansas. Winds will shift to 
the west and northwest with increasing clouds. Highs will range from 
around 70 over far western Kansas to the middle and upper 70s over 
south central Kansas. Some light rain showers or sprinkles are 
possible on Monday night as the main wave axis and upper cooling 
pushes across the Central Plains. Model quantitative precipitation forecast is very limited however, 
and many areas will not see any measurable rainfall. The European model (ecmwf) has 
backed way down on previous quantitative precipitation forecast and now more in line with the dry 
GFS. 


For Tuesday into Thursday, a dry forecast continues with dry upper 
level northwesterly flow. A cooler period is forecast with highs in 
the 60s and lows in the 40s. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning) 
issued at 545 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


Areas of light fog with visibilities from 2sm to 4sm will persist until 
14z with light downslope winds. Then VFR conditions will remain 
with some cirrus. Light downslope winds will become light 
southerly from kgck to kddc tonight. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 87 53 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 
gck 86 49 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 
eha 87 50 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 
lbl 87 51 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 
hys 86 50 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 
p28 87 57 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...jjohnson 
long term...Kruse 
aviation...Kruse 






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