Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
306 am CDT sun may 24 2015 


..updated long term section... 


Short term...(this evening through sunday) 
issued at 236 PM CDT Sat may 23 2015 


A minor shortwave trough was ejecting northeast across Kansas this 
afternoon and was responsible for a round of showers and 
thunderstorms this morning. This feature was on the front side of 
an upper level trough over Utah. An effective surface stationary 
front was situated across Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma, 
with rain cooled air to the north of the front over western 
Kansas. Another embedded shortwave trough over New Mexico will 
progress eastward this evening and set off another round of 
thunderstorms over the Southern Plains tonight, most likely 
to the south of western Kansas. However, there is a chance that 
some surface based thunderstorms activity in Colorado will move 
into far western Kansas this evening before dying off later 
tonight. These storms could contain small hail. Fairly high 
dewpoints and mostly cloudy skies should keep temperatures 
from falling a lot, varying from the upper 50s along the Colorado 
border to the lower 60s in south central Kansas. Given the moist 
airmass across the plains and south-southeasterly upslope flow, 
low cloud ceilings will develop this evening after the loss of 
daytime heating and perhaps even fog later tonight. 


As the main trough axis approaches on Sunday, a surface dryline 
will be situated across western Kansas. With moderate surface 
based cape values and strong shear, any storms that develop could 
be capable of very large hail. With more sunshine in far western 
Kansas including Ulysses and Liberal, temperatures ought to warm 
well into the 70s there. However, if low clouds persist from Dodge 
City eastward, then highs there may only reach the upper 60s. 


Long term...(monday through saturday) 
issued at 306 am CDT sun may 24 2015 


A significant amount of uncertainty remains with respect to 
convective chances through this medium range forecast period. 
Perhaps the best looking day for severe weather on a greater scale 
will be Wednesday/Wednesday evening, when the models develop a 
stronger surface low near Elkhart. In the meantime, a conditionally 
unstable environment will still be in place on Monday. The NAM 
signals potential for eastern Colorado late day convection moving 
into far western KS, however the GFS and ec are not as optimistic, 
leaving our area in subsident flow into Tuesday. By Wednesday the 
precipitable water increases significantly into central Kansas, in 
addition to good shear and convective available potential energy for supercells and heavy rain. With 
respect to temperatures, the still recently better performing European model (ecmwf) 
MOS was relied upon heavily for temperatures in the days 2 through 4 
periods. Overall there was not a large spread of solutions. The 
model consensus continue to provide at least chance category 
precipitation probabilities into late in the week, as southwest flow 
aloft and a large positive vorticity advection region into the Southern Plains returns. By 
the weekend and early next week, the setup could become more 
subsident as a large ridge build across The Rockies, lasting into 
early in the week. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night) 
issued at 1239 am CDT sun may 24 2015 


Another messy aviation period anticipated for the ddc, gck, and 
hys terminals. Initially for the remainder of tonight, a stalled 
boundary over Oklahoma will allow a moist east to southeast 
upslope flow to persist over western and central Kansas. This will 
result in IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities. Attention then 
shifts toward Sunday afternoon to evening as widely scattered 
thunderstorms will roll into western Kansas from eastern Colorado. 
Coverage appears to small to mention at ddc and hys but will 
include vicinity storms at gck. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 72 54 78 55 / 30 30 20 30 
gck 72 52 74 52 / 30 40 20 30 
eha 76 51 75 53 / 20 10 20 20 
lbl 74 53 76 54 / 30 20 30 40 
hys 69 54 78 53 / 30 30 30 20 
p28 72 59 81 58 / 30 30 20 30 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...Finch 
long term...Russell 
aviation...ajohnson 






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