Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
240 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016 


..updated short term and long term discussions... 


Short term...(this evening through sunday) 
issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016 


Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop early this evening 
near the surface boundary in southeastern Colorado as an upper 
level disturbance moves into the Central High plains. Should 
stormsdevelop late today they will move east southeast into 
western Kansas towards sunset. If any of these storms do move into 
far western Kansas early tonight these storms are not expected to 
severe, however wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph may be possible. As 
the upper level disturbance crosses western Kansas after sunset 
the chance for thunderstorms will improve given improving 850mb 
warm air advection located on the northeastern edge of the 700mb 
warm layer. Given this along with 850mb to 700mb moisture that is 
forecast to be located in the 8c to 12c 700mb temperature gradient 
will continue to favor a better chance for chance for scattered 
thunderstorms northeast of of a Garden City to Dodge City line 
during the overnight hours. Once again wind gusts up to 55 will be 
the main hazard along with the chance of some small hail. 


There will be a chance for thunderstorms this evening across 
north central Kansas. Better instability and shear will be present 
as the 850mb warm air advection begins improve. Cooler mid level 
temperatures along with some higher 850mb to 700mb moisture. Any 
storm that may develop in this area between 00z and 03z Sunday may 
be strong or even marginally severe. Wind gusts of 60 mph and hail 
up to the size of quarters will be the main hazards. 


On Sunday an upper level ridge axis will build east into the 
Central High plains and the 24 hour 850mb temperatures change from 
00z Sunday to 00z Monday will warm 6-8c . Given this warming trend 
will not stray far from the previous forecast with highs Sunday 
afternoon ranging from 95 to near 100 degrees. 




Long term...(sunday night through saturday) 
issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016 


Models to various degrees continue to suggest an upper level wave 
rotating across the central rockies on Sunday, and as this upper 
wave crosses the Central Plains Sunday night there will be chance 
for evening and overnight convection again. At this time however 
given the warming in the mid level and where the better low level 
forcing will be located late day any thunderstorms that do develop 
will likely occur along the surface Lee trough located in eastern 
Colorado. The probability for precipitation in western Kansas will 
be small but am leaning towards inserting some small chances of 
isolated overnight convection in the far western Kansas. 


On Monday a trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen 
over eastern Colorado as the westerly flow across The Rockies 
continues. Highs around 100 degrees still looks on track for much 
of western Kansas given the warming 850mb to 700mb temperatures. 


Monday night into Tuesday a cold front will drop south towards 
southwest Kansas as an upper level trough crosses the northern 
plains. Models today differing on how far south this front will 
move before lifting back north as a warm front late Tuesday or 
early Wednesday...but all the models agree the precipitation 
chances will improve as this front moves into western Kansas. 


A brief break in the warming trend will be possible north of this 
front on Tuesday but given the uncertainty on where this front 
will be will not lower temperatures much cooler than the latest 
guidance at this time. Temperatures will then rebound back to near 
100 mid week as this frontal boundary lifts north. 


The next chance for precipitation and more seasonal temperatures 
will be late week as another cold front approaches western Kansas. 






&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon) 
issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016 


A south to southeasterly wind at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon 
will gradually veer to the southwest overnight as a weak surface 
boundary moves northeast across western Kansas. Ahead of this 
frontal boundary this evening there will be a slight chance for 
thunderstorm late today and early tonight...mainly in the Hays 
area. The rap and NAM model soundings both suggesting cloud bases 
late today and early tonight with being in the 850mb to 700mb 
level. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 70 98 72 98 / 20 0 10 20 
gck 68 97 70 97 / 20 0 10 20 
eha 69 97 71 97 / 20 10 10 20 
lbl 70 98 72 98 / 20 0 10 20 
hys 69 97 73 99 / 20 10 10 20 
p28 73 100 74 101 / 20 10 10 10 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...burgert 
long term...burgert 
aviation...burgert 






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