000 
fxus63 kddc 200005 
afdddc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
605 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017 


..updated for aviation discussion... 


Short term...(this evening through monday) 
issued at 224 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017 


Boundary layer moisture continues to increase this afternoon, as 
observed with dew points across our south central Kansas counties 
making it to the 50 degree threshold. Fog and expanding stratus 
could redevelop just as the loss of isolation begins across that 
region. Additionally, the NAM family of models has been in general 
agreement with spreading showers and embedded thunderstorms north 
across the area from western OK around 00 UTC and though central 
Kansas though midnight, with precipitation generally ending after 
that. As the precipitation moves off to the east towards early 
Monday morning, the hrrr at this time developing another round of 
advection fog through the Highway 183 corridor, which may cause 
travel problems in those areas as was the case last night and this 
morning. With a wave moving through the region, the fog won't linger 
anywhere near as long as it did this morning, as westerly downslope 
surface winds develop by around 12 UTC Monday. 


On Monday, an 850 mb ridge shifts across western Kansas with breezy 
northwest surface winds preceding light winds heading into the 
evening and overnight. Temperatures may be similar to what we've seen 
on Sunday. The initial 850 mb cold pool will quickly be replaced 
with adiabatically warmed air with NAM taking surface temperatures 
into the 60s by mid afternoon. 


Long term...(monday night through sunday) 
issued at 224 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017 


Moderation right back into the climatological abnormally warm regime 
through mid week is expected starting Tuesday. Looking like 80 
degrees can't be ruled out any of the days Tuesday through Thursday 
near the OK line. The next wave continues to be advertised by the 
models by late Thursday and Friday timeframe, with a chance for snow 
and rainshowers precluding a colder and windier Friday. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening) 
issued at 600 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017 


The wind will gradually shift from the south to southwest toward 
12z ahead of a cold front. The front will pass around 15-16z 
with a wind shift to the northwest at 15 kts. VFR conditions 
are expected to persist at ddc/gck but MVFR ceilings will return 
for a few hours at hys along with a few showers between 04z 
and 08z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
issued at 224 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017 


Hamilton and Kearney counties were added to the Fire Weather Watch 
primarily covering northwest Kansas and northeastern Colorado for Monday 
afternoon. Any combination of slightly warmer temperatures or 
drier dew points than the models are showing could easily send 
the area (or more) into the red flag criteria for around 3 hours 
or so late Monday afternoon. Notably the European model (ecmwf) has much drier dew 
points than our current mesoscale model runs. Other than that, dry 
fuels and breezy winds it the afternoon would discourage outdoor 
burning across the entire area west of Highway 283. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 46 71 37 75 / 30 0 0 0 
gck 40 69 32 76 / 10 0 0 0 
eha 39 68 35 76 / 10 0 0 0 
lbl 40 71 33 77 / 20 0 0 0 
hys 48 69 36 75 / 30 0 0 0 
p28 52 74 39 74 / 60 10 0 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for ksz061-062. 


&& 


$$ 






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