Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
1258 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015 

..updated aviation section... 

issued at 848 am CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015 

Updated pops to be more representative of the current trends which 
are really focusing along the Highway 56 and 54 corridors in the far 
SW to just south of garden and Dodge City. Probabilities will be 
higher than 80 percent in these regions with scattered 
thunderstorms for most of the rest of the morning. The blended 
short term consensus basically cut highs a solid 5 degrees or 
more, with only low 70s forecast in the South West, owing mostly 
to rain cooled boundary layer and lingering clouds this afternoon. 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 112 am CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015 

Skies will become mostly cloudy this morning as mid level moisture 
advects into western Kansas. This along with a weak shortwave 
moving in from New Mexico will bring a slight chance of showers 
across a majority of western Kansas during the morning hours. 
Precipitation chances should end around noon with a few breaks in 
the clouds this afternoon. Winds will generally be from a 
southelry direction throughout the day due to a trough of low 
pressure located across eastern Colorado. Skies look to be partly 
cloudy overnight with winds shifting to more of a southwesterly 
direction ahead of a cold front progged to move through Thursday. 
As for temperatures, highs today look to top out around 80 degrees 
with lows tonight ranging form the lower 50s across west central 
Kansas to around 60 degrees across south central Kansas. 

Long term...(thursday through tuesday) 
issued at 255 am CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015 

An upper level low spinning over the southern rockies will be 
pushed south Thursday as a shortwave plows through the northern 
plains. This will help push a surface cold front through western 
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. There will be 
enough lift and moisture as this front moves through to create a 
few thunderstorms, first starting along the I-70 corridor in the 
afternoon, then spread southward as the evening and overnight 
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloudiness with winds 
shifting to more of a northerly direction behind the front. The 
front should move into Oklahoma before sunrise Friday with 
precipitation chances ending in our County Warning Area. Winds quickly shift back 
to a southerly direction by Friday night as a ridge of high 
pressure moves southeast of the area. The remainder of the 
extended forecast looks dry as an upper level ridge builds above 
the western United States. In addition, a cold front looks to move 
through the area Sunday or Monday, but with the lack of moisture, 
no precipitation is expected. As for temperatures, highs should 
generally be in the lower to mid 80s with two exceptions. They are 
Friday when highs will only reach into the lower to mid 70s behind 
the first cold front and Monday behind the second cold front where 
highs are anticipated to range from the upper 70s across west 
central Kansas to lower 80s across south central Kansas. Lows 
throughout the extended period will generally be in the 50s. 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon) 
issued at 1256 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015 

In the near term, monitoring ceilings will be the main focus as this 
precipitation event tapers down Ward through the afternoon. Gck and 
ddc for certain can expect at least vcsh for a few more hours, with 
not as much probability at the hys terminal. As the soil has 
moistened up well around the ddc terminal, overnight fog might be 
favored. However the surface wind toward 12z look to increase and 
are predominantly from the southwest. The only ceilings of any impact 
in the lav data at this time are conditional, so we will keep a VFR 
forecast going for now. 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 71 58 83 52 / 80 10 10 20 
gck 70 56 83 51 / 60 10 10 20 
eha 70 55 80 51 / 50 10 10 10 
lbl 70 57 82 53 / 90 10 10 20 
hys 74 59 83 50 / 20 10 30 30 
p28 80 60 85 56 / 30 10 10 40 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 


short term...hovorka_42 
long term...hovorka_42 

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