Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
1251 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


..updated for the aviation discussion... 


Synopsis... 
issued at 1000 am CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013 


The 18.12z 250 hpa radiosonde observation map showed two jet streak across the Continental U.S.. 
one 95 knots streak across the Pacific northwest and another 115 knots streak 
across the northeast. Flow across the Central Plains was westerly around 
60 knots. At 500 hpa, a large 550 dm cyclone was located just offshore 
of Washington state. Fairly cold middle level temperatures around -24 degree 
c were associated with said feature. Downstream, a few shortwave troughs 
were moving across the upper Midwest and into the Ohio River valley. 
Another deep cyclone was located across southeast Canada with middle level temperatures 
around -28 degree c. At 700 hpa, less of an upslope flow pattern was noted 
at kddc. Temperatures were fairly unchanged from yesterdays 12z flight...still 
@ 8 degree c. Slight cooling was noted at 850 hpa @ kddc with the observed 
value at 18 degree c instead of 20 degree c. Again, less of an upslope flow 
pattern was noted in the wind field. At the sfc, a stationary front 
was noted across Colorado extending southward to the Texas Panhandle. 
Tropical Depression Two was located @ 17.9n 90.0w @ 15z. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 100 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013 


Tonight: 


Kddc WSR-88D indicating returned power this afternoon. This activity 
is in response to a weak wave moving out of northwest Kansas and surface convergence. 
Showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening and 
will eventually spread east or southeast. A few severe strong or severe 
storms are possible, however, shear is pretty weak. Overnight lows will 
be slightly higher as dewpoints are a degree or two higher...middle 60s. 


Tomorrow: 


Early convection will still be possible Wednesday morning along a surface 
convergence line and weak upper level wave moving across the region. 
Have precipitation probability percentage points peaking at 18z and 
then tapering through the rest of the afternoon as the wave and resultant 
support moves east. Highs tomorrow will be in the middle 80s to middle 90s. 


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) 
issued at 1243 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013 


Wednesday night through friday: 
a return to hot weather is expected for late in the week as very 
warm 850-700mb downslope-warmed air advects east into western 
Kansas. While organized thunderstorm activity is not 
anticipated...the Wednesday night period will have to be watched 
mainly across central and south-central Kansas as a shortwave 
disturbance moves across Kansas (subtropical in nature as the main 
polar jet trough will be well off to the northwest). The global 
models seem to be fairly persistent in showing a convective quantitative precipitation forecast 
signal rolling east across Kansas Wednesday evening which seems to 
be tied to warm frontogenesis in the 800-700mb layer. Any convective 
threat should be early in the evening across mainly the far eastern 
counties (generally east of Highway 183). The dryline will push east 
a bit on Thursday thanks to increased southwesterly momentum in the 
850-700mb layer. Along and west of the dryline...critical fire 
weather conditions will likely develop as surface relative humidity plummets to the 
Lower-Middle teens percent. Along the dryline both Thursday and 
Friday...an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as convective 
temperature is reached and a continued rather moist airmass east of 
the dryline both Thursday and Friday evenings (dewpoints in the 
upper 50s to lower 60s). A subtropical upper tropospheric jet 45-50 
knots from New Mexico into western Kansas may provide enough deep 
tropospheric ascent and shear for a few severe storms...but coverage 
at this time looks rather sparse... so will only be going with 
slight chance probability of precipitation across the far southwestern Kansas counties for 
now. 


Saturday through tuesday: 
during this time frame...a large upper low across the Pacific 
northwest region/adjacent northern rockies will lift northeast and 
become absorbed in the polar jet stream flow in southern Canada. A 
subtropical (yet rather weak) jet will continue from Arizona through 
New Mexico into the Central High plains. This subtropical jet will 
eventually weaken as middle level anticyclogenesis begins across the 
southern High Plains. This ridge-building will mark the beginning of 
the traditional Summer pattern as a 595+ decameter high at 500mb 
will eventually become a dominant feature across the 
central/south-central Continental U.S.. a surface front will likely approach 
western Kansas on Sunday...however this front should dissolve late 
Sunday/Sunday night (although not before some thunderstorm chances 
along the front). Highs each day in the middle to upper 90s seem 
likely...with the persistent 100-degree heat expected across 
northwest Kansas and into southwestern Nebraska. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night) 
issued at 1246 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013 


An unorganized area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is 
moving across western Kansas this morning. I think this convection 
will be east of the 3 tafs by 09z. Even so, most of these storms 
are high based and ceilings within the -tsra will only lower to 
ovc050. For the most part, winds will be easterly at around 11 
knots, but cut gust higher near thunderstorms. After 09z, expect 
VFR conditions, with south winds picking up to 16g25kt. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 67 99 72 97 / 20 10 10 10 
gck 66 101 72 101 / 10 10 10 10 
eha 66 102 71 101 / 10 10 10 20 
lbl 67 102 72 99 / 10 10 10 10 
hys 67 94 72 98 / 20 10 10 10 
p28 68 95 73 95 / 30 10 10 10 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...Sugden 
short term...Sugden 
long term...umscheid 
aviation...Burke