Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
232 PM CDT sun Jun 26 2016 


..update to long term... 


Short term...(this evening through monday) 
issued at 1242 PM CDT sun Jun 26 2016 


Thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern portions 
of southwest Kansas tonight even as the flow aloft remains fairly 
weak across the western High Plains. Short range models indicate 
a frontal boundary just to our south remaining stalled out across 
the northern Texas Panhandle eastward into extreme northern 
Oklahoma this evening before generally washing out overnight while 
a subsequent southeasterly upslope flow returns to western 
Kansas. Considering an already weak cap present, ample 
moisture/instability will be sufficient enough to support 
thunderstorm development early this evening in the vicinity of the 
frontal boundary, particularly across south central Kansas. The 
weak flow aloft and less than favorable 0-6km shear will limit 
severe potential to marginal levels at best with gusty winds the 
primary concern. Additionally, precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches 
will continue to support the potential for periods of heavy 
rainfall causing localized flooding. Low temperatures tonight will 
drop back down into the 60s(f) tonight with little change to the 
air mass across the High Plains. Highs Monday will once again push 
near 90f. 


Long term...(monday night through sunday) 
issued at 223 PM CDT sun Jun 26 2016 


Thunderstorm chances will exist nearly each day through the latter 
part of the week as upper level ridging builds across the 
intermountain west, setting up a northwesterly flow aloft across 
the western High Plains. As a prevailing southeasterly upslope 
flow continues to draw low level moisture into Kansas, a series of 
500 mb vort maxima will cycle off the ridge axis into the High Plains 
during the period setting the stage for diurnally driven 
thunderstorm development Lee of the Front Range late each day. 
The focus for thunderstorms Monday will be in an area of increased 
lift in the vicinity of a developing frontal boundary expected to 
extend northeast off a surface low in the Colorado rockies into 
western Nebraska. Storms are likely to drift off the higher 
terrain into western Kansas Monday evening. Although typcial 
damaging wind gusts and some damaging hail may play a role, the 
potential for locally heavy rainfall will also exist considering 
the amount of available moisture present. This could lead to 
localized flooding issues, especially for areas already receiving 
rainfall the past few days. This pattern is forecast to persist 
through the rest of the week setting up portions of western and 
central Kansas for additional periods of appreciable rainfall. 


Temperatures are expected to remain fairly seasonal across the 
western High Plains through mid week as southeast upslope flow 
persists across western Kansas through much of the time frame with 
periods of rainfall and increased cloud cover also contributing 
factors. Highs generally in the 80s(f) to near 90f can be expected 
through at least Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon) 
issued at 1202 PM CDT sun Jun 26 2016 


VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites through late tonight. 
However, a developing east to southeasterly upslope flow, high 
relative humidity, and residual moisture from recent rainfall may 
lead to areas of ground fog development toward daybreak Monday 
morning. MVFR vsbys will be possible in the vicinity of all taf 
sites generally after 08z. Light easterly winds early this afternoon 
will become more southeasterly 5 to 15kt this evening as surface 
high pressure moves from eastern Nebraska southeast across the 
Central Plains. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 67 90 66 87 / 30 30 40 20 
gck 65 89 66 88 / 20 30 40 10 
eha 65 89 65 88 / 20 30 40 10 
lbl 67 90 66 88 / 30 30 40 10 
hys 67 90 66 87 / 20 40 50 20 
p28 70 92 69 89 / 40 40 40 20 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...jjohnson 
long term...jjohnson 
aviation...jjohnson 



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