Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
402 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 

..updated long term section... 

Short term...(this evening through thursday) 
issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 

A large mid-upper tropospheric ridge will prevail through 
Thursday, and this will lead to continued above-average 
temperatures. A high pressure ridge will shift from northwest to 
southeast across the Central Plains tonight, and this will result 
in a prolonged period of light winds tonight. The drier airmass, 
very light winds, and clear skies should allow temperatures to dip 
down to the lower to mid 40s most locations (especially 
along/north of Arkansas river). On Thursday, the leeside trough 
will redevelop with a shift in the surface wind back to the 
south/southwest. Strongest corridor of winds will be from Baca 
County, Colorado into far west central Kansas with 15 to 25 mph winds 
forecast by midday into the early afternoon. For temperatures, 
the latest superblend initialization looks good, which is above 
the warmest guidance and makes sense given the dry conditions 
(lower atmosphere and ground). 

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday) 
issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 

The anomalously warm temperatures (again) for this Friday still look 
to be on track. The superblend initialization looks pretty good, and 
is taking into account the bias-correction to the gridded output and 
MOS -- as superblend is a good 3 or 4 degrees warmer than even the 
warmest traditional guidance. Therefore, no upward change was 
required. That said, if the downslope warm plume extends northeast 
ahead of the approaching front as anticipated, there should 
certainly be a corridor of 90+ near the Oklahoma border in the Red 

The cold front Saturday will have at least a slight effect in 
temperatures, but the front will struggle to reach much past 
southwest Kansas, and as a result, the coldest air behind the front 
will remain up in Nebraska and far northern Kansas. There are 
indications from the European model (ecmwf) that the cold wedge (well, cool) will stay 
locked in through Sunday preventing much of a warmup. If the cold 
(cool) wedge is as strong as the European model (ecmwf) suggests, we may not get much 
above 70-72 across much of southwest Kansas. The cool wedge will be 
eradicated quickly as an intense shortwave trough ejects through The 
Rockies into the Dakotas Sunday night through Monday. Yet another 
very warm plume will expand northeast across western Kansas on 
Monday, so expect much warmer temperatures on Monday. The next cold 
front will move down late Monday night leading to a cooler Tuesday. 
Throughout all this frontal drama, precipitation chances will be 
next to zero with no moisture trajectories into southwest Kansas ahead 
of these front. 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon) 
issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 

Quiet aviation weather will continue. Winds will decrease to less 
than 10 knots by late afternoon as high pressure moves in from the 
northwest. Winds will remain very light through the night with 
widespread VFR forecast in the dry atmosphere. Winds will switch 
around to the south/southwest by midday Thursday. 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 48 80 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 
gck 44 82 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 
eha 47 80 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 
lbl 46 81 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 
hys 48 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 
p28 49 78 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...umscheid 
long term...umscheid 

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