Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
242 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


..update to long term... 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 307 am CDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


Forecast challenges for today will revolve around the amount of 
stratus that materializes as well as the extend of falling 
temperatures this morning. With six hours to go with increasing cold 
air advection, plenty of time for radiational cooling exists with 
temperatures only about 10 degrees away from meeting the freezing 
point. Freezing temperatures would be most likely across the 
northern half of the forecast area and least likely near the Oklahoma 
line. The latest hrrr and hires WRF runs suggest it will be 
marginal for souther portions of the current freeze warning 
headline, however we won't discount the colder MOS products with 
lean to the freezing point for most of the warned area. 


A much colder day is in store given the cold advection that will be 
ongoing through the peak heating of the day. Temperatures will 
struggle through the 40s for much of the day, and probably not 
exceed middle 40s through the Smoky Hill region. Low to possibly even 
upper 50s may be achievable farther west in places like Syracuse 
Elkhart and Meade. As the Cold Ridge axis settles farther east over 
the Missouri and Mississippi valleys tonight, the colder air over 
the eastern half of the forecast area will have a high probability 
of radiating out to well below freezing all the way to the Oklahoma 
line. 


Long term...(saturday night through friday) 
issued at 242 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


A warm day is expected Sunday as warm air advection continues ahead 
of the next synoptic trough. Sunday will be a fairly breezy day with 
a tight pressure gradient forecast and surface winds in the 20 to 30 miles per hour 
range from the south. Highs will range from the upper 70s across the 
west to the upper 60s across the east. 


Monday morning will be quite mild as moisture advection continues in 
association with a strengthening low across the Central Plains. The 
upper level synoptic trough will start to influence the region Monday 
evening with the surface reflection in the form of a frontal passage. 
The 12z European model (ecmwf) is drier than compared to its 00z counterpart, and most 
of the warm conveyor belt could be displaced to the east or southeast. 
The 12z NAM shows precipitation further to the west, so there is uncertainty. 
Stuck with the superblend solution to account for this uncertainty and 
also to blend in with the days 4-7 solution. The best place for the 
most precipitation will be across the southeastern zones. To the west, 
locations may be short changed on precipitation if the European model (ecmwf) verifies and there 
is too much southwesterly momentum along with the displacement of the 
warm sector and moisture advection the east and southeast. 


Beyond Monday, will see cooler temperatures as high pressure and a cooler 
air mass traverses across Kansas Tuesday with highs only in the upper 
50s to near 60. And for the rest of the period, will see continued moderating 
temperatures as split flow develops across western Kansas with a lack 
of significant synoptic disturbances traversing the region. The superblend 
has slight probability of precipitation in a week from now in association with a disturbance 
moving across the Southern Plains. This feature location is forecast 
fairly far south, so the low probability of precipitation look good for now. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon) 
issued at 1257 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


Winds will gradually shift around to the southeast then south and 
increase in speed during the period as cold high pressure moves 
off to the east and surface troughing develops in the Lee of The 
Rockies. VFR conditions will prevail. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 30 56 42 70 / 0 0 0 10 
gck 31 62 42 75 / 0 0 0 10 
eha 39 66 44 76 / 0 0 0 10 
lbl 33 63 39 73 / 0 0 0 10 
hys 27 53 42 71 / 0 0 0 10 
p28 28 54 41 67 / 0 0 0 10 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
freeze warning from 2 am to 10 am CDT Saturday for ksz030-031- 
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...Russell 
long term...Sugden 
aviation...Finch 



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