Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
347 am CDT Mon Jul 28 2014 

..updated short term and long term sections... 

Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 343 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014 

Lower tropospheric ridging will continue to prevail across the 
Central Plains today with a secondary cold front attempting to 
backdoor into central Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. 850mb 
temperatures behind yesterday's frontal passage (which was now 
centered across the Texas Panhandle into southern oklahoma) will 
remain fairly cool by late July standards (upper teens to around 
+20c). The high temperature forecast for today will be a bit of a 
challenge, mainly across far southwest Kansas where lingering 
showers and clouds will likely persist through midday, supporting 
afternoon highs in the 80 to 83f range. Elsewhere, afternoon 
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s, especially north 
and east of Dodge City where more abundant insolation is expected. 
We will keep some low chance pops across far southwest Kansas this 
afternoon, with pops increasing late tonight as the 850-700mb 
frontogenetic zone becomes better established, leading to more 
precipitation development. 30 to 40 pops will be confined to areas 
generally along/west of Highway 283. Global and mesoscale models 
both suggest a ramp-up in precipitation signal in the 06-12z time 
frame, and pops will show an increase toward daybreak Tuesday with 
the frontogenesis continuing to increase. 

Long term...(tuesday through sunday) 
issued at 343 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014 

A continued trend toward much cooler and wet is in place for the 
beginning of the extended period, followed by moderating, but 
generally cooler than climatological normals continuing through the 
latter half of the extended. Remarkable continuity and agreement 
appears in the global and mesoscale models in the days 2-3 time frame 
(tuesday and wednesday). As the upper high over the southern rockies 
is flattened out by the upper jet, a strengthening mid level 
baroclinic zone over the Central Plains in general by specifically 
across Kansas. Models indicate convection ongoing or developing 
around 12 UTC Tuesday, spreading east through the morning hours. 
This idea/solution has good agreement across the GFS/European model (ecmwf) and NAM 
models, with only minor differences. Stratiform rains with 
scattered/numerous thunderstorms induced by S vigorous shortwave 
moving though the baroclinic zone should then become the main 
concern by Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which again the models 
are in good agreement on spatially and temporally. Pops for this 
period were significantly increased following the consensus of the 
raw model output. With this pattern severe weather may not be as 
much of a threat as frequent lightning and moderate to heavy 
rainfall. Temperatures will be impacted significantly Tuesday and 
more so on Wednesday where the model consensus temperatures remain in 
the upper 60's f through the day for a large portion of the 
southwest Kansas. Moderate to heavy rainfall followed by light 
easterly upslope flow though the day will promote stratus after the 
precipitation ends. 

The remainder of the week will see a slow moderation back into the 
80s, which are still on the cool side of climatology for early 
August. Convection is much more difficult to forecast in this period 
as mesoscale features become more muddled, however weakly steered 
storms moving out of the Front Range region should be a daily 
occurrence as deep northwest flow remains in place. 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night) 
issued at 1206 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014 

Light winds will prevail through most of the day Monday (10 knots 
or less) especially at hys and ddc as a surface high pressure 
ridge will be centered across central Nebraska and Kansas. A leeside 
low will eventually develop over eastern Colorado late in the day 
with winds at gck increasing to 12 to 15 knots by mid to late 
afternoon out of the south-southeast. Terminals should be 
convection-free through the day Monday and even into Monday 
evening with most of the convection remaining over eastern 
Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas. 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 86 64 75 62 / 10 80 90 90 
gck 85 64 75 61 / 10 80 90 90 
eha 81 65 80 61 / 30 40 70 100 
lbl 82 65 76 62 / 30 60 70 100 
hys 85 63 82 62 / 10 30 30 50 
p28 89 66 79 63 / 10 50 100 90 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...umscheid 
long term...Russell 

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