fxus63 kddc 241100 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
500 am CST Tue Jan 24 2017 

..updated aviation... 

Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 308 am CST Tue Jan 24 2017 

A fairly vigorous storm system across the Great Basin continued to 
move toward The Rockies very early this morning. Not much change in 
the thinking this shift, and the forecast for today is largely just 
an update from the previous with the exception that temperatures 
will be warmer across the Red Hills portion of our forecast area. 
The WRF-arw model was preferred and followed since it handled 
yesterday's warm temperatures in the southwest the best. Barber 
County should see highs in the mid 60s with a decent west-southwest 
wind at 20 to 25 mph. Elsewhere, temperatures will top out in the 
upper 40s to upper 50s from northwest to southeast with a gradual 
shift in wind direction to the northwest by mid to late afternoon. 
The track of the surface low will prevent precipitation chances 
across southwest Kansas with dry downslope winds prevailing. When 
winds turn around to the northwest, mid level subsidence will be 
working in, and this will also prevent precipitation, so the 
forecast for all areas will remain dry. It is not impossible to rule 
out some sprinkles or a very light, brief rain shower, but mostly 
what we will see with the mid level cold advection this afternoon 
will be virga. Winds should remain around 20 mph through the tonight 
period as we remain in a fairly decent mslp gradient, and this will 
drop the wind chills to the +8 to +14f range by very early Wednesday 

Long term...(wednesday through monday) 
issued at 308 am CST Tue Jan 24 2017 

The long term forecast from Wednesday through the weekend will be a 
dry one with fairly seasonal temperatures. There is no indication of 
any Arctic airmass coming this way with positively-tilted ridging 
into the Canadian rockies leading to sustained downslope lower 
tropospheric momentum up and down The Rockies from Colorado to 
Alberta. We will likely see daytime temperatures slowly recovering 
to upper 40s to lower 50s by late weekend. 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning) 
issued at 500 am CST Tue Jan 24 2017 

VFR is expected for much of the pd. The exception to this is for 
khys through the overnight where MVFR cigs will be possible. Otherwise, 
a fropa is expected today with 15-25 SW/west winds ahead of the front and 
15-25 kt northwest winds behind it. Fropa timing is noon to afternoon period. 
Again, some stratus and reduced cigs (particularly for khys) will be 
possible on the backside of the system. 


Fire weather... 
issued at 308 am CST Tue Jan 24 2017 

Elevated fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon, 
generally along and south of the Arkansas River to the Oklahoma 
border. West southwest winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph, gusting 
to over 30 mph at times by afternoon. This will combine with 
temperatures warming into the 50s to lower 60s, especially in the 
Red Hills, leading to afternoon relative humidity values around 20 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 56 24 39 20 / 0 0 0 0 
gck 51 23 39 18 / 10 0 0 0 
eha 56 24 39 20 / 10 10 0 0 
lbl 59 26 41 20 / 0 0 0 0 
hys 47 26 36 19 / 10 10 10 0 
p28 66 29 42 23 / 0 0 0 0 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 


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