Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
1010 am CDT Wed Apr 16 2014 


..update to synopsis... 


Synopsis... 
issued at 1010 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014 


The 16.12z 250/500-hpa map a shortwave trough moving toward the Central 
Plains. Ahead of this feature, warm air advection continued across western 
Kansas with 700/850-hpa temperatures at 5c/10c, respectively. At the 
sfc, a cold front/pre-frontal trough was moving across the Central High 
plains. 


&& 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 345 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014 


A shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale zonal northwesterly 
flow aloft was approaching the northern plains early this morning. 
The disturbance will move rapidly east across the plains today, 
leading to a weak frontal passage across western Kansas during the 
mid to late morning hours. The airmass behind the initial frontal 
surge will not be all that cold, so influence on temperatures today 
will be negligible. Temperatures will still reach the lower to mid 
60s across much of west central Kansas. Areas across south central 
Kansas will see highs in the lower 70s given the later frontal 
passage during the afternoon hours (especially Barber county). With 
the airmass as dry as it is ahead of the front, no precipitation is 
expected during the daytime and early evening hours. 


A secondary disturbance in the northwest flow pattern will approach 
Colorado this evening. The more southern track will favor 
development of 850mb-surface low across West Texas. 700mb 
development will occur by the mid evening hours across far southeast 
Colorado and adjacent far southwest Kansas/western Oklahoma Panhandle. 
This is the favored area for precipitation initially...with light 
precipitation spreading east through the overnight hours. Will 
carry likely pops (60-70 percent) across mainly the western half of 
the forecast area ending 12z Thursday. All the models suggest the 
lower tropospheric thermodynamic profile will be warm enough to keep 
all the precipitation as rain...even along the Colorado border...so 
we removed the mention of snow during the overnight hours. 


Long term...(thursday through tuesday) 
issued at 257 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014 


An upper level shortwave is progged to move through the Central 
High plains Wednesday night into Thursday bringing increased clouds 
with a chance of precipitation. Models are a lot warmer than what 
they were last night and have decided to go with all rain as the 
type of precipitation. There could be a few snow flakes mixed in 
across west central Kansas but no measurable accumulation is 
expected at this time. Winds will generally be from the northeast 
throughout the day with highs in the lower 50s. 


Clouds will decrease in coverage Thursday night with mostly clear 
skies expected on Friday. This is due to an upper level ridge 
building above the plains. Winds will shift back to more of a 
southerly direction during this time frame. However, this will be 
short lived as an upper level shortwave moves through the southwest 
United States and Four Corners region Friday then into the central 
rockies and Central Plains on Saturday. Clouds will be on the 
increase Friday night as this system approaches with a chance of 
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Additional isolated 
thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday with decreasing 
cloudiness in the afternoon as the system exits the area. As for 
temperatures, highs look to reach into the 70s Friday through Sunday 
with lows Friday morning in the lower to mid 30s. Lows Saturday 
morning will generally be in the upper 40s with lows Sunday morning 
ranging from the upper 40s across west central Kansas to mid 50s 
across south central Kansas. 


The remainder of the extended period looks dry with upper level 
ridging building across The Rockies and southerly winds at the 
surface. Skies should be partly cloudy. Highs Monday and Tuesday 
look to be in the 70s with lows around 50 degrees. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning) 
issued at 626 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014 


VFR conditions will prevail today with increasing high clouds. 
Winds will be shifting to the north by late this morning with 
sustained winds around 15 knots with gusts around 25 knots. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 69 40 52 34 / 0 60 70 10 
gck 64 39 53 34 / 0 80 50 10 
eha 66 40 52 34 / 0 70 50 10 
lbl 69 41 53 33 / 0 50 60 10 
hys 66 36 52 33 / 0 50 50 10 
p28 73 44 53 35 / 0 50 70 10 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...Sugden 
short term...umscheid 
long term...hovorka_42 
aviation...hovorka_42 



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