Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
946 am MDT Sat Aug 29 2015 


Update... 
issued at 945 am MDT Sat Aug 29 2015 


Smokey skies this morning the product of numerous active wildfires 
scattered from west through north of Colorado basically the only 
weather to talk about at this hour. Thickest smoke in Colorado 
based on visible satellite imagery now over northeast and east 
central sections of the state...roughly east of the I-25 urban 
corridor. However skies along the foot of the Front Range still 
looking quite milky. Should see gradual improvement in 
visibilities on the plains later this morning once the convective 
temperature in the lower 80s is reached and as the northwest fringe of 
this smoke plume begins moving over the area. Otherwise rest of 
the forecast appears to be on track. 


&& 


Short term...(today through tonight ) 
issued at 339 am MDT Sat Aug 29 2015 


Upper level ridge axis will be shifting east across the forecast 
area today and tonight. This will result in warmer temperatures 
with highs pushing into the lower 90s over most of the 
plains...upper 70s/80s foothills...and upper 60s/70s mountains. 
Mainly sunny skies will prevail with further warming aloft and a 
drier airmass. Only chance for storms will occur from the 
mountains roughly along/south of I-70 into Park County where there 
is slightly better moisture. 


Southerly breezes will increase on the plains increasing the fire 
danger...but both humidities and wind speeds fall short of red 
flag criteria. 


Mountain convection will come to an end this evening with the 
loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures will be a few degrees 
above normal with the warm airmass in place. 


Long term...(sunday through friday) 
issued at 339 am MDT Sat Aug 29 2015 


The persistent upper level ridge pattern over the southern Continental U.S. 
Continues for the extended. Small perturbations in the 
positioning of the ridge combined with increasing monsoonal 
moisture due to a long wave trough over the western Pacific will 
keep a slight chance of storms in the forecast through Tuesday. 


Sunday will be a transitional day with the ridge moving south and 
east with a strong trough moving through the Pacific northwest. 
Subtropical moisture will increase over the state through the day 
bringing increased chances of precipitation to the higher terrain 
through the day. Temperatures on Sunday will be above seasonal 
normals with highs in the lower 90s. 


Monday through Tuesday will see a series of small disturbances 
moving through the dominant SW upper level flow. Precipitation 
chances will increase in the mountains with some storms moving off 
the higher terrain and over the plains by the afternoon and late 
evening. Precipitable water values increase on the plains to around 1 inch with 
increasing moisture. There is minimal cape but some convection 
will be possible by Monday and Tuesday afternoon with brief heavy 
rain being the main threat with increasing gusty winds by Tuesday 
afternoon. Temperatures will cool a bit into the middle 80s for 
Monday and upper 80s for Tuesday. 


Wednesday through Friday will see strong upper level SW flow 
continuing with enough low level moisture to keep a slight chance 
of convection in the mountains through the period. The GFS has 
some light quantitative precipitation forecast on the plains but the ec remains dry. Will maintain 
a slight chance for Wednesday and Thursday with some lingering 
moisture as monsoonal flow progresses eastward while keeping 
conditions drier for Friday. Temperatures will fluctuate around 90 
for the remainder of the week with a possible drop into seasonal 
normals by the weekend. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 18z Sunday morning) 
issued at 945 am MDT Sat Aug 29 2015 


Marginally reduced visibilities due to smoke from upstream 
wildfires will gradually improve through the morning as the main core 
of smoke drifts southeast away from the Front Range. Thus ils 
approaches at dia may not be necessary by late morning or early 
afternoon once strong mixing of the boundary layer kicks in. A 
shift from light northwesterly mountain top flow to a light 
10000-12000kt mean sea level southwesterly flow this afternoon should further aid in 
clearing out much of this smoke...at least in the Denver area. 
Otherwise current terminal forecasts appear to be on track with 
light S-southeasterly surface winds rest of today going to light S-southwesterly surface 
winds by this evening under clear/mostly clear skies. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...Baker 
short term...barjenbruch 
long term...Bowen 
aviation...Baker/barjenbruch 



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