Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
1055 am MDT Wednesday Jul 27 2016 


Update... 
issued at 1055 am MDT Wed Jul 27 2016 


Current forecast on track. Will add a mention of thunderstorms 
over Lincoln County for this afternoon where convergence along a 
boundary may trigger a few storms. Models have generally been 
convection free along the Front Range and over the higher terrain. 
With a drier airmass in place, this looks reasonable. Plan on 
lowering pops for these areas. 


&& 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 331 am MDT Wed Jul 27 2016 


An upper level ridge of high pressure will be centered 
over the Great Basin....with a northwesterly flow aloft over 
northern Colorado. In the mid levels...the plume of subtropical 
moisture is progged to get shifted more to the south and east with a 
drier mid level flow expected. At the surface however...a weak 
frontal boundary will push into the northeast plains from the east 
this morning and will settle along the Front Range/Palmer Divide 
regions by this afternoon. As a result...low level moisture will 
increase as higher dewpoints advect into the cwa from the 
east/southeast. Nam12 boundary layer convective available potential energy are progged to range 
from 1500-3000 j/kg east of a line from New Raymer to Last Chance by 
00z this evening. As a result...the strongest storms may develop 
further east along the Kansas/Nebraska borders this evening. Some 
directional shear to work with and should be sufficient to produce a 
couple of severe thunderstorms if the cap can get broken. The front 
will help infuse the low levels with more moisture by late this 
afternoon with temperatures will be similar to yesterday. Should 
see isolated high based thunderstorms in the high country...with 
better tstms coverage over the northeast plains. Spatial cross 
sections should sufficient boundary layer moisture around 
overnight to support fog/stratus as well...so will add at least 
patchy coverage in the grids after 06z. 


Long term...(thursday through tuesday) 
issued at 331 am MDT Wed Jul 27 2016 


The center of the upper ridge is forecast to remain just to our 
west through the end of the week, keeping weak northwesterly flow 
aloft across Colorado. The ridge axis is then expected to shift 
eastward to the Southern Plains by early next week. In the 
meantime, the pattern with warm days and afternoon showers will 
continue. It appears that a significant upper disturbance will 
pass over the state Thursday afternoon and combine with abundant 
low level moisture over western Kansas to produce a significant 
convective outbreak that gets its beginning over far northeast 
Colorado. Have increased the pops over the northeast corner of the 
state for the Thursday evening period. Cooler temperatures are 
expected for Friday after a significant outflow push from Thursday 
night's convective outbreak moves over northeast Colorado. High 
temperatures may only be in the mid to upper 80s across northeast 
Colorado, and the stage may be set for another convective outbreak 
Friday afternoon. 


Over the weekend, as the upper ridge axis transitions to the 
Southern Plains, temperatures across Colorado are expected to rise 
again. A monsoonal moisture plume may also develop early next week 
which may begin producing more diurnal shower activity to the 
western and central parts of the state. The general Summer pattern 
over northeast Colorado with afternoon thunderstorms is also 
expected to continue. Will need to keep an eye out for heavy 
rainfall from the afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the 
entire forecast period. The threat of damaging hail will be 
somewhat reduced due to the airmass being so warm, but severe 
weather can not be ruled out entirely. Storm motions will be the 
key to rainfall amounts that are produced. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon) 
issued at 1055 am MDT Wed Jul 27 2016 


Winds will turn easterly after 18z. Isolated thunderstorms are 
expected over eastern Colorado after 21z. This activity is 
expected to stay well east of the Denver airports and will not 
mention ts in any of the tafs. There will be slight chance for low 
clouds in the Denver area early Thursday morning. Latest models 
have backed off on the low clouds will likely just go with 
scattered low clouds in the tafs after 10z. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...meier 
short term...Cooper 
long term...dankers 
aviation...meier 






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