Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
255 PM MDT Tuesday Aug 23 2016 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016 


The upper level trough will make its way east through the state 
through Wednesday. Energy associated with this feature will allow 
for continued propagation of the circulation over The Four Corners 
region to bring showers and thunderstorms to the mountains and 
Park County through the evening and into Wednesday. A cold frontal 
boundary that pushed in from the northwest earlier today brought 
increasing stable conditions onto the plains along with gusty 
winds. This will help to keep storms at Bay for this afternoon and 
evening. Models show persistent qg lift and increasing specific 
humidity and precipitable water values over the SW portions of the state reaching 
into the higher elevations of the County Warning Area and Park County. Expect 
upwards of 1 inch of precipitation possible over a few hours under 
the stronger storms. Overnight wet bulb zero levels will drop 
enough to possibly produce a dusting of snow above timberline. For 
Wednesday temperatures will be cooler with highs only reaching 
into the mid 70s. Cape values increase over the plains with just a 
slight chance of afternoon storms with increasing mid level 
moisture from a surface low that will push north during the day. 


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) 
issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016 


Scattered showers will be continuing over the high terrain 
Wednesday evening...with some able to produce brief heavy rain. 
There will be a slight chance over the urban corridor and nearby 
plains with upslope flow. Forecast soundings look too stable 
further out east. 


Southwest flow aloft will continue Thursday with surface flow 
turning more south-southeasterly. Look for high temperatures to 
warm a few degrees. Again, storms should confine themselves 
mostly to the high terrain and urban corridor in the afternoon, 
then the chance of precipitation will push out over the eastern 
plains that evening as the upper trough with cooler air aloft 
sinks further south toward the area and a jet streak positions US 
in the right entrance. Instability will increase over the eastern 
plains through the evening and overnight, so will keep a slight 
chance going across the area. 


The upper trough over the northern rockies will push into Colorado 
late Friday bringing warmer temperatures. Southerly surface flow 
will bring up increased moisture over the eastern plains as a 
surface low forms over the Colorado/NE state borders. Cape values of 
600-1000 j/kg over the plains will result in higher pop values 
overall with a focus over the far northeast plains. As the trough 
pushes over Colorado overnight, it will send drier air in on its 
heals. 


On Saturday and Sunday, flow aloft will stay southwesterly as 
another weak upper trough over the Great Basin moves slowly into 
the state. Less shower/storm coverage is expected and should 
remain mostly over the high terrain. High temperatures should be 
back toward seasonal norms. Upper ridging for Monday and Tuesday 
will keep the seasonal temperatures around and slight chance of 
afternoon and evening showers/storms, mainly over the high 
terrain. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon) 
issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016 


VFR conditions are expected for the period. Main threat will be 
from gusty winds from cold frontal passage combined with 
increasing convection over the foothills that could send out 
outflows. Model upper air soundings have an increasing broken mid 
level with dry low levels. This will help with potential gusty 
winds between 23 and 03z. Winds will turn to drainage by this 
evening. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016 


Red flag warning will continue to 6 PM this evening for the 
northern plains near the Wyoming border. Current observations have 
winds sustained at 15 gusting up to 25-30 with relative humidity values between 7 
an 10 percent. Elsewhere conditions continue to be close to reg 
flag with low relative humidity values and continued increased gusting. 
Conditions are expected to improve later this evening as moisture 
levels increase. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
red flag warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for coz238-242-248. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...Bowen 
long term...kriederman 
aviation...Bowen 
fire weather...Bowen 






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