Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
835 PM MDT Tuesday may 24 2016 


Update... 
issued at 820 PM MDT Tue may 24 2016 


Tornado Watch has expired at 02z. Last severe storm is staying 
just south of Phillips County so mainly just heavy rain and small 
hail across eastern Phillips County through 9 PM. There is still 
isolated weaker showers and storms further west but these are not 
expected to become severe and most of this should diminish by 
midnight. Only minor changes to current grids based on evening 
trends. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 240 PM MDT Tue may 24 2016 


As a shortwave moves overhead, several storms have formed in the 
moist airmass as cape values are between 1500 and 2000 j/kg and 
good shear. Dewpoints near the urban corridor are in the mid to 
upper 40s with higher dewpoints to the east. These storms have 
already produced hail stones up to golfball size, this will 
continue with even larger hail possible through the afternoon and 
early evening. The southeasterly surface winds veer to the 
southwest with height providing good shear for storm growth. 
Surface boundaries may take advantage of the shear and produce a 
few tornadoes this afternoon and evening. The current Tornado 
Watch GOES until 8pm. Hi- res models continue to show the best 
chance for strong storms mainly from Denver County then to the 
north and east. Models continue to show drier dewpoints pushing up 
from the south, which values are in the mid 30s south of Palmer 
Divide. This may provide additional focus for storms. Storm 
activity will be pushing northeast out over the plains and likely 
be done by 5 PM over the Metro areas then last over the far 
northeastern corner through 9 PM. Though some models keep storms 
forming over the far corner past midnight, have kept a slight 
chance of storms out there. Otherwise, skies will be clearing 
tonight over the area which may allow some patchy fog to develop, 
most likely along the South Platte River Valley. 


A shortwave ridge will push overhead tomorrow over the area to 
bring warmer and drier weather. Only a slight chance of showers 
and thunderstorms are expected over the mountains and the far 
northern plains near the state border. Highs tomorrow will be a 
few degrees warmer over the plains, but a few degrees cooler over 
the mountains where cooler air will be dropping down from an upper 
low over the Great Basin. 


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) 
issued at 240 PM MDT Tue may 24 2016 
there are still strong thundestorms 
the next weather system in this unsettled weather pattern will 
begin to impact the area Thursday. Large scale lift will increase 
through the day. At the same time, low level moisture is expected 
to increase with persistent easterly flow with a Theta-E ridge 
developing over northeast Colorado. Not exactly sure how much 
surface heating will occur with the large scale lift, but still 
enough instability near 1000 j/kg to produce a threat of severe 
weather, including hail and a tornado or two depending on where 
low level boundaries set up. 


The precipitation is expected to transition to more widespread 
rain showers/embedded thunderstorm event Thursday night into at 
least Friday morning with persistent large scale lift and q-g 
ascent. Will increase pops into the likely category for most of 
this period from the foothills east onto the plains. Widespread 1 
inch rainfall amounts a good bet during this period but no 
significant hydrology issues expected at this time. 


Drier weather will then work in for Friday night into most of 
Saturday with weak subsidence. Can't rule out an isolated storm 
drifting out of the mountains late in the day or evening, but 
overall looks like a pretty dry and mild Saturday shaping up. 


Sunday looks mild as well with southwest flow aloft. Enough 
heating and moisture to support a few more afternoon showers and 
storms, but coverage still limited. 


By Monday and Tuesday, upper level support and moisture is 
expected to increase again with another weak wave noted. That 
should support a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening) 
issued at 820 PM MDT Tue may 24 2016 


A few showers east and north of terminals so don't expect any 
impacts at taf sites tonight. Surface winds are generally light 
from the northwest and this will gradually turn more southwest 
after midnight. Should see less thunderstorm activity Wednesday 
afternoon. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...entrekin 
short term...kriederman 
long term...barjenbruch 
aviation...entrekin 






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