Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
305 PM MST Wednesday Nov 26 2014 


Short term...(this afternoon through thursday) 
issued at 305 PM MST Wednesday Nov 26 2014 


An upper level ridge over the western states will flatten as it 
shifts east over the Great Basin Thursday. This will cause the 
northwest flow aloft over Colorado to become west-northwesterly 
tomorrow. Some clouds are lingering over the mountains and perhaps a 
few flurries too. There is also a slight chance for light snow over 
the northeast plains this evening. The hrrr shows a small band 
reforming this evening. Not sold on this...so will stick to the 
slight chance. If any snow forms...it should be light. 


A surface high pressure over the eastern plains and a 
surface trough along the base of the foothills has kept the cooler 
air over northeast Colorado today. The Lee side trough along with 
higher pressure over the Great Basin has produced windy conditions 
in the mountains and foothills. Temperatures have warmed nicely in 
the lower foothills with readings in the upper 40s. As high pressure 
shifts east of the region and a surface trough deepens over the 
northern rockies...south to southwest winds will flush out the 
cooler air over northeast Colorado and lead to mild temperatures for 
Thanksgiving. There will still be some moisture at the middle and upper 
levels...so wave clouds are expected at times. This may slow warming 
some...but still looks like highs will climb above 60 degrees across 
northeast Colorado. Winds will be gusty in the foothills and 
mountains again with gusts to 50 to 60 miles per hour in the wind prone areas 
of the mountains and foothills. 


Long term...(thursday night through tuesday) 
issued at 305 PM MST Wednesday Nov 26 2014 


..a dry and warm pattern is setting up for Friday through 
Sunday... 


Starting with Friday a dry airmass will be in place with strong 
west-northwest flow aloft. According to model cross-sections a mountain wave 
will form Thursday evening into early Friday. Sustained winds of 
40 to 45 miles per hour with gusts up to 70 will be possible over the higher 
mountain peaks. There is a lack of an inversion layer at mountain 
top so it will difficult to bring those winds down to the surface 
so higher winds should remain within the mountains. 
However...Chinook warming will occur on Friday and aid in getting 
areas close to the foothills well above seasonal normals. Current 
trends have highs in the lower 70s for the Denver metropolitan. This 
would either meet or exceed the current record high for Friday of 
72 set back in 1901. 


Dry pattern continues into Saturday and early Sunday with 
westerly flow becoming more dominant. Winds over the mountains 
will continue with gusting to 70 miles per hour still possible over mountain 
top. Mountain top stability is still lacking so will keep winds 
isolated to the mountains for the time being. Temperatures will 
continue to be well above seasonal normals with highs on Saturday 
in the upper 60s. 


For Sunday...models still indicating a Strong Mountain wave in the 
morning with winds continuing to gust to 60-65 over mountain 
peaks. The main feature however for this timeframe is an elongated 
upper level trough moving through the region bringing a backdoor 
cold front into the eastern portions of the state. This will bring 
high temperatures down significantly with the plains struggling 
to get out of the 40s. Moisture still lacking with this system so 
left probability of precipitation out. 


For Monday and Tuesday...models are still in disagreement with the 
timing of the synoptic features for the next system. The GFS shows 
westerly flow with increasing moisture ahead of the front with 
little precipitation associated...while the ec has a more northwest flow 
with rain moving into the western portions of the state by Monday 
morning. Will keep current probability of precipitation with no changes for this period. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 18z Thursday morning) 
issued at 305 PM MST Wednesday Nov 26 2014 


VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours with middle and high 
clouds at times. Northeast winds are expected to turn southeasterly 
just after 00z at kden and then become southerly by 03z. South to 
southwest winds are then expected to prevail the rest of tonight and 
Thursday through out the Denver area. Wind speeds should remain less 
than 20 knots tonight and Thursday. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...meier 
long term...Bowen 
aviation...meier 






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