Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
1009 am MDT Sat Apr 30 2016 


Update... 
issued at 1002 am MDT Sat Apr 30 2016 


Areas of light snow continue this morning. With temperatures 
slowly rising over the northern urban corridor...likely with 
northerly flow off the Cheyenne Ridge...will continue to introduce 
areas of rain mixing in with the snow over the next couple hours. 
With current cloud cover and expecting it to remain cloudy with 
precipitation around today....went ahead and lowered maximum temperatures a 
degree or two. May need to further cool them down....will continue 
to monitor. 


Slightly more instability shown in models over the central mountains 
later today...have added a slight chance of thunderstorms. 


&& 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 238 am MDT Sat Apr 30 2016 


The upper trough over northwestern Kansas this morning will make 
its way into south central Nebraska this afternoon. The showers 
have lessened in coverage across the County Warning Area early this morning. Will 
keep a chance of some light snow however in the grids this 
morning. Will mention patchy fog as well through 15z. Limited 
synoptic scale support today with weakening qg ascent prognosticated 
across the northeast plains this morning then weak subsidence 
this afternoon. However forecast soundings for this afternoon 
still show shallow instability present this afternoon below 700 
mb. In addition...wrap around moisture is prognosticated to advect back 
into the northeast plains this afternoon. Not much in the way of 
snow accumulations today...but cool and unsettled with scattered 
to numerous rain and snow showers this afternoon. For tonight...drier air 
aloft with continued downward qg through 06z...but lingering low 
level moisture and some shallow upslope. For this reason will 
continue probability of precipitation overnight. Weak qg ascent will start to develop over 
western Colorado late tonight ahead of the next system. 


Long term...(sunday through friday) 
issued at 238 am MDT Sat Apr 30 2016 


A secondary weaker upper level low will develop near The Four Corners 
on sun and then weaken into a split elongated system by Sun night. 
Overall forcing with this feature will be weak at best on sun. However 
persistent low level upslope flow combined with moisture up to 700 mb 
will bring some light precipitation to some areas. At this time best focus 
appears to be in and near the foothills and across east facing slopes 
of the mountains precipitation chances should be lower over the far northestern 
plains through the afternoon hours. With high sun angle and temperatures remaining above 
freezing any accumulation at lower elevations will stay on grassy 
areas and be an inch or less in most places. Accumulations in the 
foothills may range from 2 to 4 inches in a few spots. 


As for highs readings will remain well below normal across northestern Colorado 
with readings in the upper 30s to middle 40s although the far northestern 
corner could rise into the upper 40s. 


By Sun night the low level flow becomes light southeasterly in the evening 
and then weak southerly overnight. There is still quite a bit of moisture 
below 700 mb so still can not rule out some light rain/snow in the 
mountains and in and near the foothills sun evening but precipitation chances 
should gradually end by midnight in most places. 


For Monday a blocking upper level high will be over the northern rockies as 
weak disturbance possibly affects the area in weak westerly flow. Best 
moisture and instability will be over the higher terrain so will 
keep in a chance of mainly afternoon and early evening showers with a slight 
chance across the Palmer Divide. As for highs should see some 
moderation in temperatures with readings in the upper 40s to middle 50s over 
northestern Colorado. By Tuesday an upper level ridge will begin to build across the 
area with weak flow aloft. There may still be enough instability to 
produce a slight chance of afternoon showers in the mountains across northestern Colorado 
it will be dry with temperatures rising into the upper 50s to middle 60s. 


On Wednesday the upper level ridge will strengthen over Colorado with less 
moisture and a more stable airmass. Thus should see a dry day with 
warmer temperatures as readings rise into the middle 60s to lower 70s across 
the plains. By Thursday the upper level ridge will continue over the 
state with southwesterly flow aloft. Some moisture may be embedded in the 
flow which may allow for a slight chance of afternoon showers in the mountains 
across northestern Colorado it will remain dry with temperatures warming into the low 
to middle 70s. 


For Friday the upper level ridge will shift to the east as a storm 
system develops over the southwestern US. Surface low pressure will intensify 
across western Colorado with increasing moisture in south-southeast low level flow across 
the plains. Afternoon convective available potential energy are currently forecast in the 1500-2000 range 
across the plains so could see some strong storms across portions of 
the plains. Across the higher terrain instability will be in place 
as well so will mention a chance of showers with a few thunderstorms. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday night) issued 
at 1002 am MDT Sat Apr 30 2016 


Northwest to north surface winds today...increasing in the 15-20kt 
range this afternoon. IFR restrictions due to light snow and fog this 
morning...will give way to some rain mixing in with the snow 
by midday as daytime warming causes the airmass to become 
slightly unstable. Stratiform precipitation will become slightly more 
showery and MVFR ceiling restrictions are expected this afternoon and 
evening...with the potential for at least patchy fog overnight. 




&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...kriederman 
short term...Cooper 
long term...rpk 
aviation...kriederman 



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