Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
903 PM MDT sun Oct 23 2016 

issued at 900 PM MDT sun Oct 23 2016 

Tranquil weather conditions dominate the fcst region this evening 
beneath an upper level ridge and light zonal flow aloft. As this 
ridge slowly migrates eastward overnight should see winds aloft 
turn southwesterly. High-level moisture upstream over Utah will 
also gradually spread eastward over northwest Colorado overnight... 
potentially reaching northwest corner of the forecast area...I.E. 
Jackson...grand and western Larimer counties by morning...if not a 
few hours sooner than that. Do not expect to see any precipitation 
with this advancing cloud cover. Otherwise it will continue dry 
and mild elsewhere with the usual nocturnal drainage wind set up. 
Made minimal adjustments to the forecast grids this evening. 


Short term...(this evening through monday) 
issued at 126 PM MDT sun Oct 23 2016 

Upper ridge remains over the area through Monday. Some high 
clouds streaming over but mainly thin tonight, then thickening 
from west to east on Monday. Expect the clouds to have a slight 
effect on temperatures, combining with a little wind on the plains 
to keep it mild tonight, and restraining highs a couple degrees on 
Monday. With slightly warmer air off the ground, temperatures 
should still get to near what we have this afternoon. With the 
low/mid level air moistening a little from the west there could be 
just enough instability for a few light showers over the mountains 
in the late afternoon. More likely they will wait for evening. 

Long term...(monday night through sunday) 
issued at 126 PM MDT sun Oct 23 2016 

There is southwesterly flow aloft Monday night, then a weak upper 
trough moves across the County Warning Area early Tuesday. West-northwesterly 
flow aloft is progged from late Tuesday afternoon well into Wednesday 
with an upper ridge to be over Colorado Wednesday night. The qg 
Omega fields have weak upward energy for the County Warning Area Monday night into 
midday Tuesday, then weak downward motion is in place through 
Wednesday night. The boundary layer winds are mostly normal 
diurnal trends Monday night and Tuesday. There is northwesterly 
downslope progged much of Tuesday night and southeasterlies 
Wednesday. Moisture-wise, models seem to have a bit more with the 
Monday night/Tuesday upper trough than the last model runs 
indicated. The moisture is fairly deep in the mountains and there 
is no low level moisture over the downsloping plains. By Tuesday 
afternoon there is decent drying. Tuesday night through Wednesday 
night look pretty dry. The qpf fields had some measurable 
precipitation Monday night and Tuesday, but it is mostly in the 
mountains. Tuesday night through Wednesday night are dry. For pops 
will go with 40-70%s in the mountains Monday night into mid day 
Tuesday. There will be lesser pops for the foothills and maybe 
10%s for the immediate plains. For temperatures, tuesday's highs 
are 1.0-2.5 c colder than monday's. Wednesday's highs are close 
to tuesday's. For the later day's, Thursday through Sunday, models 
have the upper ridge in place for the County Warning Area Thursday into Friday. 
The European model (ecmwf) hints at a weak upper trough late Friday into Saturday, 
the GFS does not. The GFS has a weak upper trough Saturday 
afternoon and night, the European model (ecmwf) doe snot. Both have an upper ridge 
on Sunday. Will keep things dry much of the time, with just a tad 
of alpine pops Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures stay warm. 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening) 
issued at 900 PM MDT sun Oct 23 2016 

The usual nocturnal drainage wind pattern has setup across the 
Denver Metro area at this hour. Would expect little change in 
this wind configuration for the remainder of the night. Speeds for 
most of the Denver Metro area should remain under 12 kts...although 
the hrrr and rap indicate a band of stronger southerly winds 
across the southeast corner of the Metro area between 05z -09z 
tonight. Speeds in this area may be as much as 3-6 kts 
greater...with speeds not expected to be more than 20 kts during 
this 4-hour period. Overwise...should see a gradual increase in 
cirrus overnight as high-level moisture continues to feed in from 
the west and through the Lee Slope Mountain wave. 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 


short term...gimmestad 
long term...rjk 

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