Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
313 am MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014 

Short term...(today through tonight ) 
issued at 315 am MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014 

Another hot day expected across northeast Colorado with only some 
subtle changes expected today. Water vapor imagery showing the 
moisture plume getting shunted slowly south over last 6 hours and 
this expected to shift a bit more south by afternoon. This will 
keep any isolated shower activity confined to higher terrain and 
Palmer Divide. Overall precipitable water levels are slightly 
lower than yesterday at this time. There is a weak cold front 
which will drop down from Wyoming early this morning which will 
shift winds to north and northeast and slightly higher low level 
moisture. Initial frontal boundary already moving into far 
northern Weld County with weak pressure rise noted across south 
central Wyoming. However very little cooling with this front and 
expect temperatures very similar to yesterday. Models show some 
increase in low level moisture later tonight on the plains and 
will adjust some cloud cover for this. 

Long term...(wednesday through monday) 
issued at 129 am MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014 

The upper level high will continue over Colorado on Wednesday and then 
get suppressed southward on Thursday. There will be some influx of 
monoon moisture both days with the European model (ecmwf) showing a couple of 
weak disturbances embedded in the flow. Overall will keep a chance of 
thunderstorms in the mountains both days with a slight chance elsewhere. As for 
highs 850-700 mb temperatures change little either day so expect temperatures in 
the 90s over northestern Colorado. 

By Friday the center of the upper level high will be from southern Colorado 
into northern New Mexico with westerly flow over northern Colorado. Once again there 
could be some monsoon moisture affecting the area so will keep a 
slight chance of thunderstorms. A weak fnt may move into northestern Colorado on Friday but for 
now it still looks like highs will reach at least the lower to middle 
90s once again over northestern Colorado. 

For the weekend the upper level high will may retrograde a bit 
further west with the flow aloft becoming more west-northwest. Both the European model (ecmwf) 
and GFS show a weak fnt affecting the plains on Sat and then a 
somewhat stronger one on sun. The European model (ecmwf) keeps some monsoon moisture 
over the area both days while the GFS basically shifts it further 
south. In addition the GFS shows drier air spreading across northestern 
Colorado in the lower levels both days while the European model (ecmwf) keeps the low level 
airmass more moist. At this point will just keep slight chance of 
thunderstorms in the forecast both days. As for highs readings still look to 
be in the lower to middle 90s on Sat over northestern Colorado but may drop back 
to more seasonal levels by sun. 

By Monday the flow aloft will be more northwesterly as the upper level high is 
supposed to be over Utah and western Colorado. Over northestern Colorado the low level 
flow is southeasterly surface high pressure resides over the central US. If this 
pans out temperatures actually may be a few degrees below normal on Monday 
over northestern Colorado with a chance of thunderstorms. 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 12z Wednesday morning) 
issued at 315 am MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014 

Weak frontal boundary will move through local terminals between 
11z-12z as winds shift northerly. Winds will then gradually shift 
northeast by middle morning and then easterly by late in the day. 
Most of the showers activity expected to remain anchored over 
higher terrain so will not include any thunder at terminals. Could 
be some outflow towards evening which may result in some erratic 
and gusty winds. 


issued at 315 am MDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014 

Only isolated showers and thunderstorms in the mountains and 
higher terrain today with any amounts under a quarter of an inch. There 
will be a chance of afternoon thunderstorms in the mountains both Wednesday 
and Thursday with a slight chance elsewhere. Overall rainfall amounts 
will generally be light although a few spots could receive up to a 
half inch. 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...entrekin 
long term...rpk 

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