Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
802 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014 


Update... 
issued at 759 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014 


There is still some convective cloudiness around right now over 
the eastern 2/3rds of the County Warning Area. In fact there area a few showers 
around over the eastern half of the plains moving eastward. Winds 
are trying to go all drainage in most places. The convective 
cloudiness is on the way out...but there is a bit of upper level 
cloudiness moving our way in the northwesterly flow aloft. Will 
make some minor changes with probability of precipitation and clouds. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through thursday) 
issued at 313 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014 


There are a few thunderstorms over the mountains...and a few 
showers have developed over the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridge. 
Expect showers and thunderstorms to linger into early 
evening...then skies will clear later this evening. An upper ridge 
will move over the state tonight...along with a dryer and more 
stable airmass. With warmer air aloft...it will be a warmer day 
tomorrow...with middle to upper 70s across much of the plains. 


Long term...(thursday through tuesday) 
issued at 313 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014 


Still looks like a warm end to the work week and first half of 
the weekend. A strong warm ridge will dominate weather across the 
southwestern quarter of the country and Colorado on Friday and 
Saturday. High temperatures Friday and Saturday could approach or 
exceed daytime records. Sunday will be a transition day as a 
strong upper trough makes its way toward the northern and central 
rockies. Moisture will be increasing over Colorado as the chance 
for showers begins increasing in the mountains. Temperatures could 
be almost 10 degrees cooler on Sunday. Monday will see additional 
cooling and the chance of rain and snow across the forecast area. 
High temperatures on the plains will be almost 20 degrees cooler 
than Sunday. The European model (ecmwf) solution is back to showing higher 
amplitude than the GFS and Canadian model solutions. Each of the 
models agree that the pattern will be very progressive...with the 
trough moving across the state very rapidly. Mountain areas may 
still see about 24 hours of shower activity...but the plains will 
only get 9-15 hours of precipitation as the trough axis speeds 
eastward. Mountain areas could pick up a decent batch of snow 
while precipitation on the plains remains in liquid form. 


Tuesday and Wednesday will see a return to dry weather across the 
state as upper ridging re-develops over the western U.S. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Thursday evening) 
issued at 719 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014 


Weak drainage winds have already kicked in at dia. The lower 
convective cloudiness should be dissipating in the next hour or 
so. No ceiling issues the rest of the night. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...rjk 
short term...rtg 
long term...dankers 
aviation...rjk 






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