Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
738 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014 


Update... 
issued at 728 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014 


Showers decreased across the urban corridor behind the first band 
that has shifted into the far northeast plains. Another area of 
showers is forming as the upper trough over northwestern Colorado 
continues it track to the east. Will stick with the mention of 
thunder in the mountains...but have opted to go with just rain 
showers for the urban corridor the rest of this evening. The hrrr 
suggests precipitation persisting through 07-09z then diminishing. Will 
stick to midnight in the zones...with decreasing probability of precipitation thereafter. 
Will continue with the Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains 
through midnight. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through thursday) 
issued at 300 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014 


The upper level low with surface front has moved over the western 
portions of the state switching warmer southwest flow to west-northwest 
bringing cooler air down to the surface. These cooler temperatures 
combined with decreasing wet bulb zeros through the afternoon have 
brought snow down to 8000-8500 feet. The snow will continue through 
the evening in the mountains and higher foothills with an 
additional 1-2 inches overnight over the higher mountains where 
you have decent qg vertical velocity and upslope. The Winter Weather Advisory 
will end at midnight when the snow tapers off. 


At lower elevations with the cold front and secondary surge of 
cooler air from a disorganized front that will drop down into 
Colorado later this afternoon showers with only isolated 
thunderstorms will be possible. There is decent lift through the 
period with lapse rates over Denver of 8.6 c/km but due to lack of 
much heating this afternoon and very little cape widespread 
development is not expected. Gusty winds are possible with the 
showers with wind speeds gusting up to 25 miles per hour over the plains and 
40 miles per hour over the higher mountains above timberline. Clouds will 
linger over the plains and higher mountains...especially on the 
western slopes and valleys through the evening with skies clearing 
by morning with subsidence moving in. 


Long term...(thursday night through wednesday) 
issued at 300 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014 


Initially...a quick moving cold front will be sweeping across the 
northeast plains Thursday evening. The NAM and GFS both show a 
strong thermal gradient marching across the northeast corner of 
the state from 00z through 12z...but both models also limit any 
area of precipitation to southeastern Wyoming and western 
Nebraska. Quasi-geostrophic diagnostics show only a few hours of 
rising vertical motions as the front moves through...but then 
additional subsidence. Will mention isolated rain showers over the 
northeast corner of the forecast area Thursday evening...in case a 
line of showers develops in Wyoming. The cool air moving into the 
state will linger over the plains through Friday morning. With 
skies becoming mostly clear late Thursday night...it is possible 
that morning lows on Friday could be nearing the freezing mark. At 
this time...only the Palmer Divide region is expected to be lower 
than 32. After Friday morning...strong upper level ridging will be 
building over Colorado and the southwestern U.S. Which will 
continue through the first half of next week. Temperatures will be 
gradually warming through the period as skies remain mostly clear. 
Dry and mild will be the primary message. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Thursday evening) 
issued at 728 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014 


MVFR ceilings...with a lower potential for IFR ceilings/MVFR visibilities at 
Denver for any rains showers that redevelop this evening. Some 
banded rain showers appear to be developing to the south and east 
of Denver and will be moving into kden. Best window will be 
through 06z then increasing stability will develop with the focus 
for precipitation shifting to the east. As a result should see ceilings slowly 
improve after 06z. With some middle level ceilings around toward 12z have 
opted to drop vcfg from the taf but still some scattered low clouds 
around. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for coz031- 
033-034. 


&& 


$$ 


Update...Cooper 
short term...Bowen 
long term...dankers 
aviation...Cooper 






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