Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
538 PM MST Friday Feb 12 2016 


Update... 
issued at 538 PM MST Friday Feb 12 2016 


Fog showing up in Sidney Nebraska currently...further west than 
hires models had it. Models also showing slightly more potential 
for fog pushing further west over the plains...mainly into Weld 
County and possibly cycloning down into the Denver area. For now 
will spread fog west into Morgan and Weld counties. Will keep 
watch on model and observational trends to see if it needs spread 
further west and south. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through saturday) 
issued at 1258 PM MST Friday Feb 12 2016 


Main issue is the cold air oozing into Colorado from the east 
tonight and then washing back out on Saturday. This has been a bit 
slow coming in today...but it is coming and should spread stratus 
and fog and colder air into the eastern portion of the plains by 
midnight. Low level flow should be turning southerly this evening 
which should arrest the westward motion. Expecting a weak Denver 
cyclone to form by morning but expecting areas north and northwest 
of Denver to be fog free...so expect the threat of stratus/fog 
wrapping into Denver to be low. 


Cool air washes back out on southerly flow Saturday...though there 
will still be quite a gradient from Denver to the eastern border. 
Overall temperatures a few degrees warmer. Could be some moisture 
approaching from the west...but no probability of precipitation yet. 


Long term...(saturday night through friday) 
issued at 1258 PM MST Friday Feb 12 2016 


For Saturday night...the flow aloft will be zonal as the ridge 
shifts to the east and a weak system approaches Colorado from the 
northwest...and brushes northern Colorado around 06z Sunday. 
Nam12 spatial cross-sections show an amplified mountain wave 
developing. Strongest winds appear to be 06z to 15z Sunday. Could 
see gusts in excess of 60 miles per hour above timberline. Although 
windy...the shear aloft may be too strong aloft to support warning 
criteria winds...so will keep gusts in the foothills in the 50-60 
miles per hour range. For Sunday and Sunday night...strong northwesterly flow 
aloft. In the mountains moisture deepening. Middle level lapse rates 
in the 7-8c km range in the afternoon. Moisture in the mountains will 
be deepest Sunday afternoon and evening. Good instability and favorable 
orographics will favor the higher northwest facing slopes. Could 
see 1 to 4 inches of snowfall there. Downslope will negate the 
snowfall east of the Continental Divide...so probability of precipitation will drop off 
quickly there. As far the the northeast plains in concerned...will 
see little if any showers along the urban corridor near the 
foothills. Further east across the plains away from the 
downslope...enough middle level moisture coupled with moderate lapse 
rates to produce a slight chance of rain showers in the late 
afternoon/evening or a brief mix of rain/snow showers by late Sunday 
evening. An upper level ridge will build over the west for the 
first part of next week. Aside from some diminishing snow showers in 
the mountains on Monday...it will be warmer and drier through the 
week. Temperatures across the urban corridor and northeast plains 
will be well above normal...climbing into the 60s. && 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon) 
issued at 1258 PM MST Friday Feb 12 2016 


VFR through Saturday. Areas of low clouds on fog on the plains 
east of Denver Saturday morning...but less than a 20 percent 
chance of fog or low clouds in the Denver area. Light east winds 
will become southerly at kden/kapa this evening...then likely 
turn northwest as a Denver cyclone develops early Saturday. Some 
uncertainty about the last part. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening) 
issued at 538 PM MST Friday Feb 12 2016 


Hires models showing areas of fog pushing further west over the 
plains...at least into Weld County overnight...and possibly 
cycloning south into the Denver area. Believe for now that the 
southerly drainage winds will keep it away from kden. Areas of 
low clouds on fog on the plains east of Denver Saturday 
morning...but less than a 20 percent chance of fog or low clouds 
in the Denver area. Light east winds will become southerly at 
kden/kapa this evening. There is a small chance they turn 
northwest as a Denver cyclone develops early Saturday...which 
would lead to possible fog...but still uncertain about that. Winds 
will turn westerly Saturday afternoon and become stronger possibly 
out of the northwest through 00z. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...kriederman 
short term...gimmestad 
long term...Cooper 
aviation...kriederman 






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