Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
408 am MDT Wednesday Jun 29 2016 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 400 am MDT Wed Jun 29 2016 


County Warning Area is mainly storm free at the time but there has been some 
generation of stratus overnight across the urban corridor and 
over the Palmer Divide. Stratus expected to diminish and shift 
east through the early morning hours as moisture depth is rather 
shallow and drier west winds develop. 


Main concerns again today revolve around the threat of severe 
storms over the northeast plains. Main change to note today over 
the past 24 hours is the moisture increase across the mountains 
and western Colorado. Precipitable water values have increased 
about a quarter of an inch at gjt and GOES sounder total precipitable water 
values confirm this. Not much change in precipitable water values across eastern 
Colorado although surface dewpoints are 3-5 degrees lower than 
yesterday. Would expect a more normal start to convection over the 
mountains by late morning and then beginning to drift east and 
southeast over the adjacent plains during the afternoon. Since 
surface moisture is rather shallow expect some low level drying as 
dewpoints lower. Forecast soundings would mainly support gusty 
winds...brief rain and small hail as surface based CAPES drop to 
under 1000j/kg. This was the thinking yesterday as well but we 
did have the big storm over Denver which appeared to develop on a 
narrow band of higher dewpoints and pseudo dry line over north 
Denver and Boulder areas. We shall see. 


High res models today shift dry line further east across far 
eastern Colorado...mainly from near Cope to Sterling and points 
east. This might be too far east and Storm Prediction Center does have the slight 
chance for severe line a bit further west. Latest hrrr develops a 
complex over Larimer and Weld counties after 20z but not a lot of 
consistency amongst the models. Of course there is the forecasted 
mesoscale convective system which drops down from Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle this 
evening. Overall, best chance for severe storms will be over the 
northeast plains with the Richer low level moisture...higher CAPES 
and stronger shear profile. Still, can't rule out a strong storm 
further west. 


As in last several nights...outflow from convection will likely 
result in areas of stratus developing on the plains later tonight. 
Mild temperatures and fair amount of clouds will likely develop 
towards Thursday morning. 


Long term...(thursday through tuesday) 
issued at 222 am MDT Wed Jun 29 2016 


On Thursday, upper level high pressure is centered over West Texas, 
with subtropical moisture flowing into Colorado from the south and 
southwest. Models also show a weak cold front moving into 
northeastern Colorado late morning with a moist upslope flow 
developing by afternoon. NAM and GFS show the atmosphere becoming 
saturated by Thursday evening, with pw's above 1.20 inches across 
the northeastern plains including Denver. In addition, models show 
an upper level shortwave moving over northern Colorado through the 
day. All of these ingredients should result in cooler and wetter 
weather across north central and northeastern Colorado Thursday and 
Thursday night. The high pw's combined with slow storm motions 
should result in areas of heavy rain. The main focus for heavy rain 
and localized flash flooding looks to be over the Front Range 
foothills due to the easterly to southeasterly upslope flow. One 
thing to note is that yesterday's models showed deeper easterly 
upslope flow, slightly higher pw's along with higher quantitative precipitation forecast along the 
Front Range foothills, adjacent plains and Palmer Divide. Despite 
this trend, still think we should see still see a good chance for 
precipitation and areas of heavy rain. 


On Friday, the upper high shifts further east into central Texas, 
with the flow of subtropical moisture continuing to flow into 
Colorado. The upslope flow diminishes which should decrease storm 
coverage. However, a moist south to southeasterly flow at the 
surface, combined with increased shear, could result in a better 
chance for severe weather across the plains and Palmer Divide. Heavy 
rain will also be possible as pw's remaining above 1.10 inches. 


On Saturday, models show a shortwave moving across Colorado, with a 
little bit of drying at the surface and aloft. However, there should 
be enough moisture, instability and lift from the short wave to 
produce scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms across 
the region. 


On Sunday, the upper ridge of high pressure re-establishes over the 
Desert Southwest, with a drier westerly flow aloft over the Rocky 
Mountain region. This pattern should result in warmer and drier 
weather across north central and northeastern Colorado. There should 
still be enough moisture around, combined with daytime heating, to 
produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and 
storms, mainly over the higher terrain. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night) 
issued at 400 am MDT Wed Jun 29 2016 


Stratus is decreasing from west to east and now is on a line from 
Parker to kden and gxy. Current movement would have some clearing 
at kden around 11z. Will indicate some earlier clearing at kden. 
Scattered storms expected to drift off the foothills during the 
afternoon. Appears main impact would be gusty winds and brief 
rain. Outflow from this evening convection likely to result in 
more stratus again later tonight. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...entrekin 
long term...Kalina 
aviation...entrekin 






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