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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
330 am MST Tue Jan 24 2017 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 330 am MST Tue Jan 24 2017 


Latest satellite analysis shows upper low spinning just west of 
Casper Wyoming, with another piece of energy now pushing northeast 
from The Four Corners area. The main cold front has hung up in 
east central Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle as some pressure 
falls were still noted into southeast Wyoming. Better falls were 
seen under the short wave in The Four Corners. As that shortwave 
lifts out, should see stronger pressure rise/fall couplet develop 
finally allowing front to surge southward through northeast 
Colorado. Behind that, shallow anticyclonic upslope develops in a 
slightly unstable atmosphere, so expect scattered snow showers to 
develop across the plains and I-25 corridor later this morning. 
Still not entire sure about how this unfolds but feel at least 
scattered pops would be warranted in this scenario. Any showers 
that develop may drop brief moderate snowfall with a quick dusting 
to 1 inch possible. 


Into late this afternoon and evening, the anticyclonic upslope 
component would have a tendency to increase and deepen. While most 
synoptic scale energy is departing and low levels begin to dry, 
there still appears to be sufficient instability under the upper 
trough to keep the chance of snow showers in the forecast. Most 
likely during this time frame there would be a focus toward the 
Front Range foothills from Boulder southward. On the northeast 
plains it should turn drier but as system organizes in Nebraska 
would expect some wrap around moisture to bring an inch or so of 
snow to the far northeast corner of the state. Chance of snow on 
the plains will decrease late this evening. 


In the mountains, expect mostly light snow off and on through 
tonight with modest orographics and moisture. Will leave existing 
advisory for zone 31 in place, while most mountain locations 
should pick up another 1-4 inches through tonight. 


Long term...(wednesday through monday) 
issued at 330 am MST Tue Jan 24 2017 


Drier and warmer conditions for the extended period. Wednesday 
will see increased moisture behind the trough with mostly cloudy 
skies through the morning slowly scattering out by the late 
afternoon as increased subsidence returns. Flow from the north on 
the plains provided by the exiting surface low over eastern Kansas 
could bring a slight chance of snow to the far NE plains counties 
and the mountains into the evening hours. Some light accumulation 
will be possible in the mountains with little to none on the 
plains. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday behind the front 
with highs hovering right around freezing and overnight 
temperatures into Thursday in the single digits to low teens. 


Thursday will see the building in of a surface high that will 
dominate the mesoscale picture for most of the extended period. 
There will be enough moisture in the mountains for a slight chance 
of snow on Thursday but probability of precipitation will decrease substantially by the 
evening. Temperatures on Thursday will increase into the upper 30s 
and then to normal by the weekend with a chance of above normal 
temperatures in the 50s by Monday under a moderately strong ridge. 
With the surface high dominating most of the western portions of 
the Continental U.S. With strong flow out of the north provided by the trough 
over the Great Lakes some increased winds will be possible over 
the plains with gusts reaching into the 30s by the weekend. 
Otherwise conditions will be dry under partly cloudy skies. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning) 
issued at 330 am MST Tue Jan 24 2017 


Patches of stratus with IFR conditions had developed across 
portions of the Front Range including kden. Given the patchy and 
weakly forced nature of this stratus, appears this may come and go 
through 15z before cold front pushes in and locks a more 
persistent MVFR ceiling into place. With the front, also expect 
scattered snow showers to develop with potential for isolated to 
scattered LIFR ceilings and visibilities in the showers. Overall 
trend will be for gradual ceiling improvement into the 
afternoon/evening as low levels dry out and lifting condensation 
levels (lcls) rise. However, instrument landings are likely to 
persist at kden til around 06z-08z this evening before ceilings 
sufficiently lift. Any snow showers will be capable of producing a 
dusting to 1 inch of snow, with brief slush on paved surfaces. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for coz031. 


&& 


$$ 



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