Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
611 PM MST Monday Mar 2 2015 


Update... 
issued at 610 PM MST Monday Mar 2 2015 


Updated aviation section below. 


&& 


Short term...(this afternoon through tuesday) 
issued at 317 PM MST Monday Mar 2 2015 


A strong southwesterly flow aloft has transported warmer air into 
the area. Temperatures in the mountain valleys and foothills have 
warmed into the 40s. Parts of the Denver area and eastern plains are 
under inversion with temperatures in the 30s. Moisture is increasing 
over the southwest Colorado and The Four Corners. This will move 
over the north central mountains tonight. Still looks on track for 
periods of heavy snow over the far northern mountains as the jet and 
a wave move across Colorado. Instability will bring showers this 
evening to most of the mountains with a few making it across The 
Divide. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning going for the northern 
mountains where up to 2 feet will be possible over western Jackson 
County through Tuesday. 


For the Front Range and eastern plains...will be a tricky forecast 
the next 24 hours. Some of the higher res. Models are showing 
downslope west to southwest winds spreading east across the Front 
Range and eastern plains. They may produce blowing snow. Though due 
to the warm airmass above the inversion...temperatures may spike 
into the 40s for a short time tonight and produce some melting which 
may limit the amount of blowing snow. Lows may be reached this 
evening in many locations before the inversion breaks later tonight 
due to the downslope winds. 


The latest high res models show some showers moving off the higher 
terrain and onto the Front Range. Would expect windy conditions and 
light precipitation if this occurs. May be warm enough for rain 
showers. Downslope will quickly kill any showers coming over the 
mountains. 


Cold front will plow south into northeast Colorado after midnight 
and push through the Denver area around sunrise. Upslope and 
moisture will initially be shallow...so it may take until afternoon 
for snow to form. Lift from an upper level trough will bring the 
best snow late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Snowfall 
amounts through Tuesday afternoon look to be light...less than 2 
inches for the Front Range. 


Long term...(tuesday night through sunday) 
issued at 317 PM MST Monday Mar 2 2015 


Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning upper level flow will be 
westerly ahead of the next approaching cold front upstream. An 
approaching surface high from the north over Wyoming will help to 
bring shallow upslope northeasterly flow to the northern 
foothills and portions of the Denver metropolitan area early Wednesday 
morning. After the cold front pushes through...the flow behind it 
will return to a more northwest flow and aid in downsloping off the 
foothills ending snowfall for the region by Wednesday afternoon. 
High temperatures for Wednesday will be up to 30 degrees cooler 
than normal. Lows overnight into Thursday will reach in the single 
digits. 


For Thursday a weak upper level disturbance will move over the County Warning Area 
Thursday afternoon but with minimal moisture will only produce a 
slight chance of snow in the higher mountains with little 
accumulation. 


For Thursday night through the weekend the pattern changes with northwest 
flow increasing due to a deep high pressure system over California and 
ridging over the region. This will help to bring back some sun and 
increased temperatures...however highs will remain below seasonal 
normals until possibly Sunday or Monday when there is a chance of 
reaching into the lower 50s. The models diverge greatly for 
Saturday with the GFS having the high pressure center further east 
than the ec. The ec has the center further west allowing for a 
cold front to drop out of the northwest bringing a slight chance of snow 
to the mountains. Will keep it lower probability of precipitation for now until later 
model runs. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Tuesday evening) 
issued at 610 PM MST Monday Mar 2 2015 


Pilot report from kapa indicates low level winds shear and kftg 
wind profiler does as well. Have updated tafs to include wind 
shear this evening until flow turns more southwesterly. Still not 
sure if/when this happens but convective showers to our west 
should help erode the shallow haze with 3-5sm visibility and more 
stable northerly surface flow toward 04z-05z. 


There may be a line of showers that moves off the foothills this 
evening. They will be short lived due to downslope. Biggest issue 
with them will be gusting winds and blowing snow. Westerly winds 
will likely increase after 06z as a surface low moves northeast 
of the state. Around 11z...a cold front is expected to push 
through the Denver area bringing northerly winds. Ceilings will 
fall below 3000 feet behind the front. Light snow will be possible 
late Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon where up to 2 inches 
will be possible. The best chance for snow will come Tuesday 
evening as an upper level system combines with the front. Total 
snow fall through Wednesday morning is expected to be 2 to 4 
inches with a little more near the foothills. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for coz031-033. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...meier 
long term...Bowen 
aviation...barjenbruch 



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