Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
915 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015 


Update... 
issued at 915 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015 


No big changes to the forecast products this evening. A few 
showers are moving across Larimer and northern Weld County...as 
well as the far northeast plains. Gusty winds will be the main 
product of the showers over the next hour or so. Decreasing clouds 
are expected after that. Later tonight a dry cold front will move 
in from the north with a couple hours of gusty north winds and 
cooler temperatures through the day tomorrow. All these features 
are handled by the current forecast suite. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through sunday) 
issued at 247 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015 


Upper level shortwave trough in tandem with a surface cold front now 
making their way across northwestern Wyoming and northern Utah. Do not see much 
in the way of moisture/precipitation with this system at this time...and qg 
vertical velocity fields are indicating only modest deep layer 
ascent behind the surface front. Deterministic models and synthetic 
satellite imagery show this upper air feature racing sewrd across 
Wyoming early this evening and down across north-central and northestern Colorado 
overnight. Meanwhile models differ on the arrival time of the surface 
front. WRF...rap...GFS...ECMWF and Canadian models all show boundary 
layer winds on the plains turning gusty from the northwest with 
frontal passage late this evening. Whereas the NAM delays the 
arrival of the front and its wind shift until sometime between 
06z and 09z. Most of these same models show a narrow band of low- 
level convergence and steep lapse rates across the northeast 
plains late this evening and hints of a triple point just beyond 
the northestern corner of the state just ahead of the cold front. Cross 
sections and model soundings show middle-levels saturating with weak 
qg ascent sufficiently to generate a few high based showers and 
perhaps a weak short-lived T-shower over the northestern corner. 
Otherwise only gusty north-northwesterly winds...falling temperatures and 
rising humidities under mostly clear/partly cloudy skies expected 
with passage of this weak system...and perhaps a few light snow 
showers over the northern mountain ranges. 


Sunday...looks dry and cooler within the Post-frontal environment 
with gusty northerly winds on the plains and strong/gusty northwesterly winds in 
the Front Range mountains during the morning hours. Flow aloft weakens 
during the afternoon as the upper ridge building out west moves 
closer to the state. Should then see wind speeds subsiding even in 
the high country with hardly a cloud in the sky with strong middle- 
level subsidence. Highs tomorrow are expected to run 10-15 degree f 
below those observed today. That/S still above average for the 
date. 


Long term...(sunday night through saturday) 
issued at 247 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015 


A relatively dry and warm period through next Wednesday with ridge 
of high pressure aloft over portions of the western U.S. The 
ridge will shift into the plains by middle week as flow shifts west 
and southwest for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be way 
above normal with readings in the 70s across lower elevations 
through Wednesday. There is only a slight chance of afternoon and 
showers in the mountains...mainly south of Interstate 70 and 
across Park County with a bit better moisture there. 


As the flow turns zonal on Wednesday there is a weak frontal 
boundary which moves through Wednesday am along with a slight 
chance of showers. A stronger system develops over the Great Basin 
on Thursday before slowly shifting across Colorado sometime in the 
late Thursday and Friday time frame. There are some timing differences 
between European and GFS solution so for now will just keep low 
probability of precipitation and cooler temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Sunday evening) 
issued at 915 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015 


Winds will be out of the west to southwest for the next few 
hours...ahead of a cold front that is expected to move through in 
the pre-dawn hours. A wind switch to the north along with some 
gusts up to 20 miles per hour or so are expected between about 3 am and 5 am. 
No other aviation impacts are expected. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
issued at 915 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015 


Red flag warning that was out earlier today was allowed to expire 
at 6 PM. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...dankers 
short term...Baker 
long term...entrekin 
aviation...dankers 
fire weather...dankers 






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