Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
856 PM MDT Tuesday Apr 22 2014 


Update... 
issued at 855 PM MDT Tuesday Apr 22 2014 


Have decided to drop the mention of thunderstorms across the County warning forecast area 
this evening...otherwise previous forecast looks fine. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 352 PM MDT Tuesday Apr 22 2014 


Isolated convection continues to develop across the area...mainly 
over mountains and northern foothills. Some high based convection 
developing along a weak convergence area from eastern Douglas 
County into eastern Adams County. Activity rather limited at this 
time and mainly high based. Nearest lightning current across 
southern Colorado. Southwesterly winds beginning to increase 
across mountains...foothills and urban corridor...a bit more 
southerly across the rest of the plains. Still expected scattered 
showers across the mountains along with a few storms this evening 
as weak middle level ascent moves over the area. Across the 
plains...appears the convection will be limited this evening with 
the best chance far eastern plains. Will maintain isolated 
coverage for early this evening based on current radar along with 
the mention of thunder. Gusty outflow winds to be the main threat 
with only light rainfall. Overnight...any lingering showers across 
the plains to end by midnight with gradually clearing skies. 
Southwest winds to continue with with increasing southwest flow 
aloft. Some gusts to 20 kts possible over the mountains...any 
storms to end by midnight...though a few showers will linger 
overnight. 


On Wednesday...upper trough moves across Wyoming with axis 
extending south across western Colorado. Models show weak 700 mb 
low over eastern Colorado at that time. Most of the lift will be 
associated with main trough...with some weak lift noted over 
eastern Colorado. Cross sections indicate sufficient moisture 
across the mountains along with weak instability for a chance of 
showers. Airmass cold enough that the snow level looks to be 
around 11000 feet above ground level with some light accumulation across the 
higher passes. There is limited cape...not enough to include 
thunder at this time. Across plains...winds to shift to the 
northwest during the morning as 700 mb flow becomes northwest. 
Cold front moves across the plains during the afternoon. Winds 
behind the front expected to shift to the north over much of the 
plains...while remaining more northwest along the urban corridor. 
Winds to become a bit gusty during the afternoon...possibly 
reaching 30 kts along the Wyoming and Nebraska border and southern 
Lincoln County. Some showers could develop during the afternoon 
with moisture and middle level ascent. There may be enough low level 
ascent for a few thunderstorms though the best chance looks to be 
east of a Fort Morgan to Limon line. If storms develop...they 
will produce gusty winds and brief moderate rain. Temperatures to 
be cooler across the plains with the 700 mb trough...with readings 
expected in the middle and upper 60s. Temperatures look to peak 
around middle day...then slowly drop during the afternoon. Highs 
could reach the lower 70s over southern Lincoln County as front 
may not reach that area until late afternoon. Gusty west to 
northwest winds will help lower humidity readings over southern 
Lincoln County. Green up has been limited in that area...so 
expecting critical fire weather conditions to be met. Will hoist a 
red flag warning for zone 47 from noon until 8pm. 


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) 
issued at 249 PM MDT Tuesday Apr 22 2014 


Cold front will be pushing south across the area Wednesday evening 
with gusts to 40 miles per hour associated with it. As it continues 
south...there will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms 
during the early evening...but then downward qg vertical velocity 
behind the trough will help stabilize and dry out the airmass. 
Lows overnight will be in the 20s in the high country and in the 
middle 30s for the plains. 


Thursday and Friday will feature an upper ridge aloft with a 
surface trough over the eastern plains. Some upper level moisture 
will keep some high clouds around and temperatures are expected to 
be right around average for this time of year...upper 60s for the 
plains and 50s for the mountains. Will have to keep an eye for the 
eastern plains for more fire weather concerns as humidities are in 
the middle teens and winds are 20-25 miles per hour out of the northwest 
Thursday then out of the south Friday. 


Confidence in this weekends system has not been improved since 
last night. The Gem seems to be holding steady with its solution 
but continues to lag all the other solutions. It seemed as though 
the GFS was starting to trend toward the weaker and open wave 
solution of the ec...however the latest runs seemed to go opposite 
with their trends with being slightly deeper. But even with 
slightly deeper solutions...the upper low/trough still seems to 
far north for any sort of upslope to develop. With these 
solutions...believe we'll see more wind then precipitation...with 
more wind south of i70 and a better chance of showers north of 
i70. All three models show a weaker secondary wave moving around 
the backside of the low to bring a continued chance of 
precipitation through Sunday. Kept general forecast from last 
package except decreased probability of precipitation along the Front Range urban corridor 
with no upslope expected. Northerly flow aloft is depicted with 
upper ridging building in from the west for the first part of next 
week...this will bring cooler than normal temperatures and likely 
dry weather. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Wednesday evening) 
issued at 855 PM MDT Tuesday Apr 22 2014 


No significant changes at this time. May stick with a southerly wind 
component at kden until 04z then southwesterly. Otherwise VFR conditions 
with no significant adjustments at this time. 
&& 


Fire weather... 
issued at 352 PM MDT Tuesday Apr 22 2014 


Gusty westerly winds will help lower humidity humidity readings 
over southern Lincoln County during the afternoon. Green up has 
been limited in that area...so expecting critical fire weather 
conditions to be met. Will hoist a red flag warning for zone 47 
from noon until 8pm. Humidity readings to increase at that time. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
red flag warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for coz247. 


&& 


$$ 


Update...Cooper 
short term...d-l 
long term...kriederman 
aviation...Cooper 
fire weather...d-l 






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