Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
814 PM MDT Thursday Aug 28 2014 

issued at 814 PM MDT Thursday Aug 28 2014 

Upper level low has moved out of the state and drier air has begun 
moving into the state. Shower activity has come to an end except 
for a few showers over the Continental Divide. Skies should become 
mostly clear overnight as a weak upper level ridge builds over the 
state from the west. The upper level ridge is going to be far 
from a clean one as water vapor imagery is already showing moisture 
from the remnants of Tropical Storm Maria approaching the 
northern California coast. Middle and upper level moisture should be 
increasing over northwest Colorado by tomorrow afternoon. Forecast 
has been updated for dry conditions overnight. The forecast for 
tomorrow remains unchanged. 


Short term...(this evening through friday) 
issued at 220 PM MDT Thursday Aug 28 2014 

Upper level low is centered near the Colorado-Nebraska border. It 
will continue to move off to the east. A moist slight unstable 
northerly flow behind it will continue to bring showers and 
thunderstorms through the early evening. Brief heavy rain will be 
possible the storms. Due to the cool airmass...small hail may 
occur too. Drier air moves in from the north early this evening 
and spreads across the area through the night. By morning...expect 
mostly clear skies. This will allow for good expect 
overnight lows to be the coolest of the season with low in the 40s 
to lower 50s. 

It will be warmer Friday under a northwest flow aloft. Expect mostly 
sunny skies through the morning. By afternoon...airmass will become 
unstable over the higher terrain. Convective available potential energy will be less than 500 j/kg. 
Expect isolated storms to form over the higher terrain. A few of 
these could move onto the Front Range during the afternoon. Will 
have 10-30 probability of precipitation in the forecast for the afternoon with the highest 
probability of precipitation over the mountains and foothills. Temperatures will rebound 
with highs reaching the upper 70s to middle 80s. 

Long term...(friday night through thursday) 
issued at 220 PM MDT Thursday Aug 28 2014 

Despite the weak ridge aloft moving across Colorado on Friday 
evening...there will still be a fair amount of moisture and 
marginal instability over the mountains and plains. Have added 
some low probability of precipitation for the area into Friday evening. 

For this weekend...there will be another upper level wave which 
will move across Colorado late Saturday through early Sunday. 
There is some qg ascent with this trough especially during the 
Saturday night period. Will keep probability of precipitation in the mountain and portions 
of the plains for much of the night with this feature. Drier and 
more subsident air filters into Colorado Sunday afternoon and 
evening. Will cut off any precipitation fairly early Sunday evening. 

A drier west to northwest flow will move into the region from 
Monday through Wednesday. Through this period there could be an 
isolated storm over the far northeast plains with higher low 
level moisture available under a southeast low lvlf low. The 
airmass will be drier further very little if any chance 
of storms over mountains and Front Range. 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Friday evening) 
issued at 814 PM MDT Thursday Aug 28 2014 

No aviation impacts for Denver area airports tonight. Winds will 
become drainage and southerly during the overnight and pre-dawn 
hours. Have included a chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon to 
account for some showers developing over the mountains and 
drifting eastward onto the plains. 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 


short term...meier 
long term...entrekin/meier 

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