Area forecast discussion...correctedd 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
422 am MDT sun Apr 20 2014 


Short term...(today through tonight ) 
issued at 422 am MDT sun Apr 20 2014 


Upper low continues to make slow northeastward progress across 
northern New Mexico at this hour. Cyclone well evident on 
satellite imagery. Also evident is the thick cloud shield 
backwashing over south central and southeast Colorado. Skies have 
cleared along the Front Range from Denver northward in the past 
couple of hours as drier air filters down from Wyoming. However 
should see a reversal in this trend over the next several hours 
with moisture wrapping back into northestern Colorado as the upper low 
tracks across southeastern Colorado. Partial sunshine this morning should 
manage to destablize the boundary layer sufficiently to spark a few 
light rain showers over the Front Range and Palmer Divide by middle 
to late morning. Rain chances look even better across the southeastern 
corner of the County Warning Area where the airmass will be more moist and 
unstable. Further heating and upslope flow this afternoon should 
have little problem generating scattered showers and isolated 
T-storms over the Front Range and Palmer Divide. Whereas the 
plains airmass does not look as unstable for thunderstorms... 
particularly north of Interstate 70...but enough to allow for 
isolated rain showers by middle to late afternoon. 


With the upper low moving away this evening...should see a quick 
end to showers and clearing from northwest to southeast through 
the evening. Later tonight...model 850-700 mb relative humidity and wind fields 
show another surge of relatively cool and moist air backing into 
northestern Colorado. Cross sections indicate a bank of low cloud across 
the northestern corner of the state around 09z...and up against the Front 
Range by 12z. Have added that to the forecast grids. Highs today 
should be a few degrees above those observed yesterday with upper 60 
to middle 70s on the plains...and upper 40s to around 60 in the high 
country. 


Long term...(monday through saturday) 
issued at 422 am MDT sun Apr 20 2014 


For Monday...northeast Colorado will be in Post frontal regime as 
winds shift east to southeast by afternoon. Could be some stratus 
Monday am along with some moisture and a relatively stable 
airmass. Some pooling of moisture over east slopes in the 
afternoon with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. 


For Tuesday...broad upper trough moves inland off West Coast with 
increasing downstream southwest flow over Colorado. This will 
result in warmer temperatures and gusty southwest winds. Closer to 
the Colorado and Kansas border could be a marginal severe weather 
potential as low level winds will be more south and southeast 
with higher dewpoints streaming northward. Best chance for storms 
will be over in Kansas but still bears watching for far eastern 
Colorado. With the gusty winds and warmer temperatures may lead to 
some fire weather issues for Tuesday afternoon and evening. 
Highest impact would be over the Palmer Divide and possibly 
further east depending on how much low level moisture can remain 
or gets flushed out. 


The broad upper trough sweeps across the region on Wednesday and 
Wednesday night with an associated cold front moving over 
northeast Colorado Wednesday afternoon. With some possible cooling 
may lower any fire weather concerns. Moisture looks rather sparse 
with this system over Colorado and keep most of the probability of precipitation over the 
mountains and over far northeast Colorado. 


Thursday looks to be cooler and breezy following the upper trough. 
The ridging moves in for Friday with dry and warmer conditions. 
Late Saturday may get interesting again as next strong upper trough 
moves into the Great Basin with possible storms over the far east 
plains with increasing moist...southeast flow. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 18z Monday morning) 
issued at 422 am MDT sun Apr 20 2014 


Scattered middle and high level clouds over the Denver area 
terminals early this morning will increase in coverage late this 
morning and afternoon as moisture wraps back into northeast 
Colorado around an upper low in southeast Colorado. Ceilings 
should remain VFR today even with isolated rain showers which are 
expected to develop after 19z today. Showers will form first near 
the foothills then drift southeast over portions of the metropolitan 
area. Rain amounts should be light...generally less than a tenth 
of an inch. Winds will start out south-southwesterly at 6-12kts 
early this morning...then swing counter-clockwise to a northwest- 
northeast component at 7-14 kts after 17z this morning. Could 
see brief gusts to 20kts with passing showers. This 
evening...showers should end early in the Denver area with 
clearing through midnight. Then another surge of relatively cool 
and moist air is forecast to back up against the Front Range after 
09z. Could see cloud bases in the Denver area lowering to around 
4000 feet above ground level by 12z/Monday...but no precipitation. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...Baker 
long term...entrekin 
aviation weather...baker| 






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