Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
415 am MDT Monday may 25 2015 


Short term...(today through tonight ) 
issued at 410 am MDT Monday may 25 2015 


Water vapor imagery showing upper low over northeast Colorado and 
this feature will continue to move into Nebraska by afternoon. 
Wrap around moisture is resulting in scattered showers over far 
northern Colorado bordering Wyoming and Nebraska. Expect this 
trend to continue through much of the morning hours. There are 
also some snow shower activity in the mountains with modest west-northwest 
orographic flow. 


For this afternoon despite weak subsidence behind the low there 
will be enough residual moisture and instability for scattered 
coverage of showers and thunderstorms...especially higher terrain 
and across the far northeast in closer vicinity to the upper low. 
Surface based convective available potential energy only up to 500j/kg so not expecting and severe 
storms today. Should see storms dissipate rather quickly this 
evening with lack of upper air support and expect better clearing 
tonight as well. 


Long term...(tuesday through sunday) 
issued at 410 am MDT Monday may 25 2015 


In for a roller coast of a ride this week. Starts out warmer and 
drier on Tuesday after a wet and coolish Holiday weekend. Upper 
ridge builds over the region from the Great Basin. But plenty of 
moisture still around with a steady stream of moist Pacific air 
across the region. Should still see isolated to scattered 
showers/T-storms Tuesday afternoon and evening with the help of 
strong solar heating. Though not as much coverage as the day before. 
Temperatures also on the rise with warming aloft with the ridge passing 
overhead. By Wednesday upper ridge shifts east of the state 
according to models and flow aloft GOES southwesterly. Models show a wave 
embedded in this flow passing over the forecast area during the 
afternoon and Erly evening hours. Southerly low-level flow out ahead of 
this shortwave will increase low-level moisture across the northestern 
corner of the County Warning Area...favoring storm development out that way late. 
Could see a supercell or two form along a northeast moving north- 
south shear axis. Wave lifts out overnight taking some of this 
moisture with it. On Thursday...flow aloft becomes more southerly as 
the next in the series of upper troughs drops in over the Great 
Basin. Models slowly swing the trough across Colorado Thursday and 
Friday and with it comes plenty of moisture and cooler air. 
Precipitation chances will likely rise on Thursday but its Friday when 
models esply the GFS paint a wet and unsettled weather pattern 
across the forecast area. Moist upslope flow east of the mountains Friday 
into Friday night would potentially result in widespread low 
clouds...light to moderate stratiform precipitation and chilly temperatures for 
the plains and foothills. Based on the GFS...we may even see 
hydrology issues. Trough is forecast to move out late on Saturday and 
be well east of the state on Sunday. And with an upper ridge 
moving in...should see a couple of days of dry conditions and 
above average temperatures starting Sunday. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 12z Tuesday morning) 
issued at 410 am MDT Monday may 25 2015 


Current shower activity will stay north of the 
terminals...generally near the Wyoming border areas of Weld 
County. Expect a light north to northeast wind component along 
developing this afternoon with scattered showers and storms. 
Storms generally weaker than the previous few days and should end 
by early evening. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
issued at 410 am MDT Monday may 25 2015 


Lower flash flood threat today as moisture levels are lower while 
airmass is more stable. Scattered light showers over the northern 
border this morning but amounts will be under a tenth of an inch. 
Still expect scattered coverage of storms this afternoon and 
evening but heavy long duration storms not expected. 


Current flood warnings will continue along the Cache la poudre in 
Weld County and South Platte rivers through Weld..Morgan and Logan 
counties. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...entrekin 
long term...Baker 
aviation...entrekin 
hydrology...entrekin 






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