Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
820 PM MDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 

issued at 814 PM MDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 

Line of storms moving southeast through metropolitan area...with some 
good rain...and wind gusts into the 30s. More storms are upstream 
and headed our way from raised probability of precipitation a bit for the 
remainder of the evening. Question is how late will convection 
continue...with the exception of the NAM the other models show 
convection ending. For now will leave earlier idea of clearing 


Short term...(this evening through friday) 
issued at 320 PM MDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 

There is some mountains and foothills convection going right 
now...about 15% coverage. Nothing on the plains so far. There is 
still some cin to overcome. The dew points are in the 50s f over 
the plains and foothills. Models keep northwesterly flow aloft 
over the County Warning Area tonight and Friday. There is a weak upper trough in 
the flow on Friday with a bit of speed maximum to move across the 
eastern County Warning Area around 18z. On the qg vertical velocity fields there 
is little in the way of any synoptic scale energy for the County Warning Area 
tonight or Friday. Models continue to show an easterly component 
to the boundary layer flow this evening. There are east- 
southeasterlies prognosticated on Friday afternoon. For moisture...there 
is quite a bit prognosticated much of tonight...with a bit less on 
Friday. The dew points are expected to be in the upper 40s to 
lower 60s tonight and Friday with precipitable water values in the 
0.50 to 1.2 inch range. The cape is fair this evening...nothing 
over 1000 j/kg...but there are higher numbers on Friday...more so 
out on the plains. There is a middle level stable layer over the 
plains this evening on the lapse rate fields...there is also one 
prognosticated on Friday. The quantitative precipitation forecast fields have limited amounts of 
measurable rain this evening...with a bit more for Friday 
afternoon. Will go with "chance"s this evening and Friday 
afternoon for the high country..."slight chance"s elsewhere. For 
temperatures...friday's highs are 0-2 c warmer than today's highs. 

Long term...(friday night through thursday) 
issued at 235 PM MDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 

Friday night through Thursday 

Friday night the upper trough is centered over southern Utah and 
northern Nevada...with a northwest flow aloft over Colorado. The 
upper flow becomes more westerly over the the upper 
ridge shifts into the southern rockies. This should allow some 
subtropical moisture to increase across the region by Sunday. 
Temperatures will be very warm over the weekend with Saturday being 
the warmest day. Most locales on the plains should see temperatures 
with temperatures in the 90s. 

Models show a cold front moving into northeastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. Upslope flow behind the front...combined with increased subtropical moisture should produce scattered showers and storms Sunday afternoon and evening. The GFS sounding has precipitable waters above 1.25 inches in Denver Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Therefore the potential exists for very heavy rainfall. 

Monday morning looks to be cool and cloudy...with morning fog and 
drizzle possible on the plains. Scattered afternoon and evening 
showers and thunderstorms may develop later in the day...most 
numerous over the mountains...southern foothills and Palmer Divide. 

Drier weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday...with a gradual 
warming trend. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers 
and storms will be possible each day...most numerous over the 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 00z Friday late afternoon) 
issued at 235 PM MDT Thursday Jul 2 2015 

Winds should quickly go back to easterly this evening...then 
southerly late evening. Another batch of thunderstorms will be 
possible between 10 and midnight...will update tafs to mention 
thunderstorms in the vicinity. For tomorrow scattered thunderstorms are expected again 
after 22z. 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 


short term...rjk 
long term...jk 

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