Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
952 am MST Thursday Nov 27 2014 

issued at 952 am MST Thursday Nov 27 2014 

Mild and dry day will prevail under a west-northwest flow aloft. 
Temperatures have climbed in the upper 50s where the wind is 
blowing near the foothills. In lower locations across the 
northeast plains temperatures are in the upper 20s and 30s. May 
need to lower temperatures in a few areas that have been slow to 
warm. Appears the waves clouds will this should hold 
temperatures some too. 

Still looks windy in the mountains and higher foothills tonight 
where gusts to 60 to 70 miles per hour will be possible. 


Short term...(today through tonight ) 
issued at 315 am MST Thursday Nov 27 2014 

The flow aloft will become more west-northwest as some higher level moisture is 
embedded in the flow. There will be some wave clouds through the 
day which may have some impact on high temperatures over northestern Colorado. With 
downslope low level flow in place if skies were clear highs would 
likely rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s along the Front Range 
however with lower sun angle high cloud deck can alter temperatures quite a 
bit in some cases. For now will keep readings in the middle 60s along 
the Front Range with upper 50s to lower 60s near the Wyoming-NE border. 
Meanwhile gusty winds will continue in the higher foothills and mountain 
areas with gusts up to 60 miles per hour at times. 

For tonight there is some potential for high winds in the higher 
foothills and mountain areas after midnight as Cross Mountain flow increases 
to 60-65 kts. Mountain wave is not well defined based on current data so 
not sure how if they will stay above timberline or will mix down to 
the the higher foothills. 

Long term...(friday through wednesday) 
issued at 315 am MST Thursday Nov 27 2014 

Models have flat upper ridging over the County Warning Area Friday into Saturday 
..then just zonal flow aloft. Anyway...jet level winds are 
prognosticated in the 75-100 knot range from the west Friday through 
Saturday night. The qg vertical velocity fields have benign 
synoptic scale energy for the County Warning Area until Saturday...when upward 
motion is prognosticated continuing Saturday night. The boundary layer 
winds are downsloping west or southwesterly over all the County Warning Area for 
all four periods. There is a bit of mountain wave set on the 
cross sections for the foothills and mountains Friday and 
Saturday night...but not highlight worthy. Moisture is very sparse 
all four periods. There is a slight increase Saturday night...but 
not very substantial. Doubt there will be enough moisture for a 
decent wave cloud. None of the models show any measurable 
precipitation for the County Warning Area Friday through Saturday night. No probability of precipitation 
through Saturday night. For temperatures...friday's highs are 
1.5-3.0 c warmer than today's expected highs. Saturday's are a 
tad...0-1.5 c...cooler than friday's. Both day's MOS guidance 
numbers from the NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show record or near record 
highs for Denver. Readings will be 20-25 degrees f above normal. 
For the later days...Sunday through Wednesday...models have a weak 
upper trough pushing eastward to our north on Sunday. It brings in 
a cold front and some upslope for the plains but moisture is still 
insignificant. There is zonal flow on Monday. For Tuesday...the 
European model (ecmwf) has a weak upper trough... the GFS is zonal moving to 
ridging by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. There is more weak 
upper troughing on the European model (ecmwf) for Wednesday. As a 
result...temperatures vary quite a bit between the models. The 
European model (ecmwf) has a bit of measurable quantitative precipitation forecast Sunday night late through 
Tuesday but mainly in the mountains. The GFS has none through that 
time. The GFS brings a tiny bit into the mountains on 
Wednesday...the European model (ecmwf) is dry. Not good agreement...but the current 
pattern looked wildly different between the two models 5 to 7 days 
ago too. The GFS won that battle. May go with some minor alpine 
probability of precipitation some of the time...but nothing significant. For temperatures 
will mostly split the difference. 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 18z Friday morning) 
issued at 952 am MST Thursday Nov 27 2014 

Middle and high clouds will continue to stream across Colorado today 
and tonight. Winds will generally be south to southwest the next 
24 hours and less than 25 knots. However at kbjc...westerly wind 
gusts to 40 knots will be possible at times as winds move off the 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 


short term...rpk 
long term...rjk 

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