Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
755 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016 


Update... 
issued at 755 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016 


Another quiet night under clear skies and light winds. Only 
change to the forecast was to drop low lying areas a couple 
degrees. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 324 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016 


Weak flow around a 700-500 high centered over western 
Colorado makes very slow eastward progress next 24 hours. 
Strong subsidence and drying on the east side of this 
high will keep skies clear overnight. Rising heights 
responding to warming aloft will equate to slightly warmer 
surface temperatures overnight. With the high slighting 
over eastern Colorado on Wednesday the light northwest flow 
aloft will transition to more of a southwesterly component 
which will begin to advect mid and high level moisture up 
into the state. By late in the day could see cirrus spreading 
over area and perhaps a few ac and/or cumulus clouds forming over 
the high terrain with strong diabatic heating. Temperatures 
tomorrow about the same as those today with lower 80s on the 
plains and 60s/70s in the high country. For your information...normal high 
temperature for the Denver Metro area this time of year is 
in the lower 70s. 


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) 
issued at 324 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016 


High level moisture will increase from the southwest Wednesday 
night and Thursday due to modest southwest flow aloft and a 
subtropical jet streak moving into the central rockies. Airmass 
remains pretty stable though as there is still pretty warm air 
aloft. Low levels moisten a bit, but not enough to really 
encourage convection. Main threat of showers/storms is probably 
with the jet streak Thursday night over the mountains and then 
with the slight cooling aloft on Friday when the meager 
instability should be the greatest. On Saturday and Sunday the air 
will be a bit drier, though there still could be some slight 
instability. Just a slight chance of diurnal showers/storms looks 
good. 


A stronger trough will move through on Monday or Tuesday. This 
should bring a bit more cooling and stronger westerly flow aloft, 
but it will be moving through a pretty dry environment. Most ec 
ensembles and about half of the GFS ensembles today were slower 
than the operational GFS. Fastest solutions have the cold 
advection and lift with the trough Sunday night, while the slower 
ones are Monday or even early Tuesday. Consensus trend toward 
cooler temperatures with only low pops is fine at this range. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening) 
issued at 755 PM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016 


Mostly clear skies will continue to prevail tonight and 
Wednesday. Light northerly winds are expected to become normal 
southerly drainage direction by 06z. For Wednesday, light winds in 
the morning will become easterly after 18z. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...meier 
short term...Baker 
long term...gimmestad 
aviation...meier 



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