Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
904 PM MDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016 

issued at 904 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016 

Skies cleared late afternoon after the showers moved east, 
resulting in thunderstorms forming over the mountains where 
instability was highest. The High Plains continue to be stable 
this evening and storms that moved east of the foothills weakened 
quite a bit and were unable to generate much rain nor any gusty 
winds. Latest model trends again initiate convection over the 
mountains by 18z and bring a chance of some of those showers 
making it east and eventually across most of northeastern Colorado 
overnight Thursday. Forecast grids have this well handled and no 
updates needed. 


Short term...(this evening through thursday) 
issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016 

Water vapor imagery continues to show corridor of increased 
moisture streaming through central Colorado combining with 
ongoing easterly upslope flow to produce prolonged showers over 
the County Warning Area. To the southeast portions of Lincoln County and the higher 
terrain could see some thunderstorm development by the late 
afternoon as breaking in cloud cover has helped to increase 
instability. Elsewhere heating has been hindered combined with 
less than ideal 700 mb temperatures to not allow for good 
instability and cape. Light rain showers will be possible this 
evening over the urban corridor and out to dia. 

As the upper level trough continues to make its way eastward it 
becomes disorganized with lack of upper level support and flow 
turns more westerly. Weak qg vertical velocity continues Thursday 
with less cloudy cover and increased cape on the plains. This will 
help to fire off convection over the higher terrain by the 
afternoon with increased southeast flow at the surface. Moderate south-southwest 
700mb flow will help to funnel moisture as well as help to push 
some storms over the foothills possibly over the urban corridor by 
early evening. Temperatures will be slightly warmer then today 
with highs on the plains in the mid to upper 70s and 50s at higher 

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday) 
issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016 

As upslope low level wind continues Thursday evening, scattered 
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain and 
urban corridor will move further east over the rest of the area 
through the night as 700 mb flow turns west to southwesterly. This 
will likely diminish convective activity along the urban corridor 
by or just after midnight. Forcing and cooling aloft and upward 
qg vertical velocities will help sustain cape, and sustain showers 
and thunderstorms through most of the night over the rest of the plains. 
As Friday morning rolls around, the far northeast plains will 
likely continue to see convection. 

The upper trough axis will swing over the state Friday to continue 
the scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be 
slightly warmer at the surface, while temperatures will be cooling 
aloft with the trough passage. This will bring higher cape values 
to the area, 1000-1500 j/kg or more possible over the eastern 
plains. Storms that direction may grow strong to severe Friday 
afternoon and evening with hail and strong outflow winds. 

As the main trough axis pushes east Saturday, higher heights will 
be building over the area. However a weak trough on the backside 
will push slowly across the area this weekend to keep some 
diurnal convection possible but with less coverage. Temperatures 
will be increasing back to near to slightly above normal readings 
for this time of year. 

Ridging aloft will continue Monday and Tuesday while high surface 
pressure will be over the Great Plains. Just enough moisture under 
the ridge should allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms for 
the high country. Expecting warmer than normal temperatures. 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening) 
issued at 904 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016 

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with light winds at the 
surface, generally out of the south from 04-12z at apa and den, 
while at bjc expect westerly winds from 06-12z. Mostly cloudy 
slides this evening will give way to scattered mid/high clouds by 
12z. On Thursday there looks to be enough instability to warrant a 
mention of thunderstorms in all the tafs after 21z. 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 


short term...Bowen 
long term...kriederman 

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