Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
336 PM MDT Friday Jul 25 2014 


Short term...(this evening through saturday) 
issued at 332 PM MDT Friday Jul 25 2014 


Current convective coverage is about 15-20% in the mountains and 
foothills Palmer Ridge and Western Plains. Nothing very strong 
yet. East-southeasterly winds are most common over the plains and 
foothills right now. The latest acars soundings are showing a 
fairly decent cap around 450 mb. The upper ridge center is south 
of Colorado tonight and Saturday...with westerly flow aloft for 
the County Warning Area. The synoptic scale energy remains benign. The boundary 
layer winds are all downsloping tonight...then a front moves in on 
Saturday morning with upslope behind it. There is still some 
moisture prognosticated overnight and Saturday. Precipitable water values 
remain in the 0.7 to 1.3 inch range for the plains and foothills 
tonight and Saturday. Boundary layer dew points are in the 45 to 
55 f range tonight and Saturday. On Saturday afternoon...the NAM 
is very excited with the cape values for most of the County Warning Area...the GFS 
has very little. Models continue to show some fairly decent cape 
over the eastern half of the County Warning Area this evening. The quantitative precipitation forecast fields have 
a tad of measurable rainfall this evening...mostly over the 
western half of the forecast area. There is more prognosticated on 
Saturday afternoon and it covers more of the County Warning Area. Will keep the 
current probability of precipitation going for this evening. The plains look stable on 
Saturday...so the best probability of precipitation will be over the mountains and 
foothills. For temperatures...saturday's highs could be a tad 
below this afternoon's. 


Long term...(saturday night through friday) 
issued at 332 PM MDT Friday Jul 25 2014 


Some storms will be possible across the mountains...foothills and 
adjacent plains Saturday evening...before ending around midnight. 
Storms could produce brief moderate rain and gusty outflow winds. 
There are some hints in the model boundary layer wind and relative humidity 
fields of low level moisture increasing slightly across the plains 
overnight. This may be the result of some convection over Kansas 
and Nebraska. For now will not mention any low clouds or fog...but 
will continue to monitor. On Sunday...the flow aloft becomes 
northwest. Models show another surge of cooler air moving into 
northeast plains during the morning...with cross cross sections 
indicting some low level moisture behind this surge. This may be 
sufficient for some stratus to develop along the urban corridor. 
Otherwise scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to 
develop across the mountains and foothills by the afternoon and 
continue into the evening. These storms will be capable of 
producing brief moderate rain and gusty winds. Plains may end up 
being too stable for any convection...but will maintain a slight 
chance along the urban corridor and adjacent plains in case a few 
storms survive away from the foothills. Highs across the plains 
may be 5 to 10 degrees cooler from saturday's readings. By 
Monday...low level flow becomes southeasterly as the northwest 
flow aloft continues. Low level moisture will be on the increase 
as a Theta-E begins to develop. Combination of instability and 
moisture will lead to an increasing chance for thunderstorms. Best 
chance still looks to be across the mountains and foothills... 
though chances for storms could increase along the urban corridor 
in the favored upslope areas. Some storms may produce brief heavy 
rainfall. There looks to be enough shear for a few severe 
storms...with hail and wind the main threats. On Tuesday... 
northwest flow aloft to continue with the models indicating a middle 
level shortwave moving across northeast Colorado. Upslope looks to 
deepen to around 700 mb with decent low level moisture. 
Thus...most locations should see a good chance of showers and 
thunderstorms. Precipitable water values fairly high...so storms 
will be capable of producing locally heavy rain. Shear not all 
that favorable for severe storms...though one or two storms could 
become severe. 


For the later days...Wednesday through Friday. Weather pattern 
still looking a bit unsettled for Wednesday and Thursday with 
temperatures remaining below normal. Best chance for storms look 
to be across mountains and foothills as plains may have a bit too 
much subsidence behind the tuesday's wave for much convection. 
Highs across the plains may only be around 80 degrees both days. 
By Friday...both European model (ecmwf) and GFS show the upper ridge building into 
Colorado with a slightly warmer airmass over the region. Airmass 
looks a bit drier but enough moisture for a slight chance of 
thunderstorms...mainly across the mountains. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 00z Saturday late afternoon) 
issued at 332 PM MDT Friday Jul 25 2014 


A few storms could affect the area airports through 01z...though 
ceilings should remain above 6000 feet above ground level. Outflows will dominate 
the winds at the Airport for the next few hours. Downsloping winds 
are expected overnight. Upslope winds are expected by late 
Saturday morning. Ceilings below 6000 feet are not expected. 




&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...rjk 
long term...d-l 
aviation...rjk 






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