Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
555 PM MST Friday Feb 27 2015 


Update... 
issued at 555 PM MST Friday Feb 27 2015 


With clearing denoted over some of the northern mountains as well 
as over the plains on satellite and observations...have adjusted 
forecast pop...sky and weather grids. With little midlevel moisture 
over the plains...have changed the slight chance of snow to a 
slight chance of flurries. Seems as though overall...models and 
conditions will slow the chance for snow after tomorrow's expected 
cold front compared to forecast time....have backed off a couple 
hours. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through saturday) 
issued at 126 PM MST Friday Feb 27 2015 


For tonight...a relatively moist westerly flow aloft will be 
over Colorado. Persistant overrunning light snow has continued in 
the mountains with a couple of inches at the ski areas today. 
This will continue into the evening so will keep likely probability of precipitation going 
at least in zone 34 through this evening...with another 1-2 inches 
possible. Across the northeast plains...some nagging stratus and 
pockets of light snow trapped under an inversion through the day. 
Gusty south-southeasterly winds across the northeast plains but Highway cams do 
not show much impact from blowing snow. Denver cyclone will 
continue overnight with the models showing low boundary layer moisture 
wrapping into the Denver area late tonight into Saturday 
morning...10-16z. Not sure if it will be a low stratus deck for 
fog...for now will hedge things towards stratus but also mention 
patchy freezing fog. Weak middle and upper level qg does start to 
advect into the mountains from the west on Saturday as the next 
upper trough drops into the Great Basin. Will keep the mention of 
snow with accumulations in the 1-4 inch range for the mountains... 
favoring zone 34 the most. As for the northeast plains...the cold 
front does slip into Denver in the afternoon...with northeasterly upslope winds 
in the afternoon. Should see light snow developing in and near the 
foothills and Palmer Divide after 21z. 


Long term...(saturday night through friday) 
issued at 126 PM MST Friday Feb 27 2015 


An upper level low will slowly move south across California Saturday 
night through Monday. This will keep a southwest flow aloft over 
Colorado. For Saturday night...a weak wave embedded in the flow 
aloft will move across Colorado. Meanwhile...a surface high will 
move from the northern rockies southeast to the Central Plains 
Saturday night and Sunday. This will keep a weak north to northeast 
upslope low level flow over northeast Colorado. Lift from the wave 
and low level upslope along the Front Range will produce light snow 
Saturday night and early Sunday. May also get some lift from the jet 
axis as it shifts north across Colorado. Expect up to 3 inches along 
the Front Range...with a little less over the eastern plains. 
Mountain top level winds will increase Sunday behind the wave 
helping to produce orographic snow. Expect totals to be a little 
higher in the mountains since it will snow longer...generally 2 to 6 
inches for Saturday night and Sunday time frame. 


On Monday...models showing heavy snow over the mountains of western 
Colorado associated with a deep moist strong southwest flow aloft. 
This is expected bring snow to parts of the north central mountains. 
If flow backs too southerly...the northern central mountains may 
miss out on a good part of the heavy snow. Over the plains... 
southerly flow will warm temperatures and bring dry conditions. 


As the upper level trough fills and moves inland...flow aloft will 
turn more westerly and bring a better chance for snow to the 
mountains Monday night and Tuesday. In the meantime...a strong wave 
will drop south across the northern rockies and into the central 
rockies Tuesday night. A cold front will accompany the wave from the 
north. This is expected to bring a round of widespread snow Tuesday 
and Tuesday night. The airmass behind it will be cold. Snow is 
expected to taper off early Wednesday as the upper level system 
moves east of the area. Highs will struggle to climb above 20 
degrees Wednesday. If it clears out Wednesday night...sub zero lows 
will be possible. 


For Thursday and Friday...there will be a break from the snow and 
cold. An upper level ridge builds over the Great Basin and produces 
a dry northwest flow aloft over Colorado. Temperatures will 
warm...but are still expected to be slightly below normal. The 
warming trend will continue into Friday with highs expected to be 
around normal with upper 40s and lower 50s expected over northeast 
Colorado. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Saturday evening) 
issued at 555 PM MST Friday Feb 27 2015 


Low stratus over the area airports have dissipated. Looking for 
next ceiling to move in from southwest Colorado now. A weak 
Denver cyclone has now moved east-northeast of kden...placing most 
airports in northwest surface wind...with wind speeds expected to decrease 
soon...becoming light and variable which will allow some of the 
earlier low level moisture to hang around. The models do still 
hint at the cyclone remaining nearby overnight allowing for prevailing 
VFR with occasional ils/MVFR ceiling/visibility restrictions due to stratus and 
lingering snow flurries. After 09z tonight...a better area of low 
level moisture gets entrained in the cyclone and funnels into 
Denver. Should get IFR ceilings developing...along with patchy 
freezing fog. For now will go with vcfg wording in the tafs. Low 
clouds will linger through the morning with a front around 
20z...with snow developing afterwards. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...kriederman 
short term...Cooper 
long term...meier 
aviation...kriederman 



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