Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
952 PM MDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


Update... 
issued at 948 PM MDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


Moisture in the form of middle and high-level clouds continue to 
close in on the forecast area this evening. Bulk of the cloud 
cover presently at or above 25k feet mean sea level. Light 700-500mb zonal 
flow also beginning to veer southwesterly with the 500 mb ridge 
axis shifting east of the Continental Divide. Except for minor 
tweaks to sky cover...winds and min temperatures...current 
forecast appears on track for the remainder of the tonight. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through saturday) 
issued at 230 PM MDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


Satellite pictures are showing plenty of high clouds over the County Warning Area 
and the immediate upstream. There is a decent Denver cyclone 
going right now. The radar indicates a significant convergence 
line stretching from south central Weld County southwestward into 
the northwest corner of Douglas County. The line has moved very 
little the last several hours. East of it pretty strong south- 
southeasterly winds are widespread. Light winds are featured west 
of the line and on into the foothills and mountains. Models have 
the upper ridge axis move eastward out of the County Warning Area tonight. Weak 
southwesterly flow aloft is prognosticated on Saturday. Weak upward 
vertical velocity is prognosticated for the County Warning Area tonight and Saturday. The 
boundary layer winds look to be drainage tonight in most areas... 
maybe enhanced a tad for the plains with the low level pressure 
field expected. On Saturday...the wind field over the plains may 
be similar to the current one. For moisture...basically there will 
be high clouds around here and there for the first two periods. 
The satellite pictures confirm this. There is no low or middle level 
moisture to be had on the models through 00z Saturday afternoon 
late. The quantitative precipitation forecast fields have no measurable precipitation for the County Warning Area 
tonight or Saturday. No probability of precipitation. For temperatures...saturday's highs 
look to be 5 to 9 c warmer than the current readings. 


Long term...(saturday night through friday) 
issued at 230 PM MDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


Saturday night into Sunday...a Pacific storm system will move into 
the Great Basin with an increasing southwesterly flow aloft over 
Colorado. Moisture will increase as well...with precipitation favoring zone 
31 Saturday night. The coverage will continue to increase over the 
mountains on Sunday. The flow aloft will remain southwesterly 
so orographically...zones 31 and 33 have the best chance of 
precipitation on Sunday. It will remain dry and mild over the 
urban corridor and adjacent plains...with fairly decent southerly 
winds over the eastern plains Sunday afternoon. The upper trough 
will split Sunday night into Monday with the trough axis moving 
across Colorado on Monday. Weak to moderate qg ascent will move 
across the region on Monday...with the snow level dropping to 
around 6k feet above ground level Monday morning. There will be some brief shallow 
upslope Monday morning...the wind weakens and becomes north-northwesterly in the 
afternoon. At this point...light snow in the mountains with 
heavier showers possible with any convective activity. Any 
accumulations in the foothills and Palmer Divide appear light at 
this time...maybe an inch or two. Monday night...the system will 
move east with just some lingering showers in the evening. For the 
rest of the period...a dry north northwesterly flow aloft will be 
over Colorado with a ridge building over the West Coast. If any 
precipitation develops...there could be some overrunning moisture 
developing in the zones 31 and 33 at that time. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 00z Saturday late afternoon) 
issued at 230 PM MDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


The Airport will continue to have light northwesterly winds for 
the near future. The south-southeasterlies are not far east of 
the Airport but are making little progress moving west. Decent 
drainage winds are expected tonight. On Saturday there will be 
more southeasterlies out on the plains with a Denver cyclone 
again. There will be no ceiling issues. 




&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 00z Saturday late afternoon) 
issued at 948 PM MDT Friday Oct 31 2014 


Surface winds at Denver area terminals have been south-southeasterly 
at 6-12kts this evening. Past hour or so have noticed a gradual 
trend to a southwesterly component with flow aloft assuming a more 
southwesterly component as well. Such winds will likely slow down 
cooling next couple of hours...then with speeds decreasing after 
06z...winds should assume a southerly-southeasterly direction at speeds generally 
under 8 kts. In addition...high clouds are expected to gradually 
increase overnight with no impact on Airport operations. 


$$ 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...Baker 
short term...koop 
long term....coop 
aviation.....Baker/koop 






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