Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
742 PM MST Monday Feb 8 2016 


Update... 
issued at 742 PM MST Monday Feb 8 2016 


High clouds will stream over Colorado tonight as a northerly flow 
aloft continues. Tuesday will be warmer as the upper level ridge 
over the western U.S. Strengthens. No changes planned to the 
current forecast. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through tuesday) 
issued at 259 PM MST Monday Feb 8 2016 


There is still plenty of thin cirrus clouds moving southward 
across the County Warning Area right now. No precipitation anywhere for the County Warning Area 
right now. Strong north-northwesterly flow aloft is prognosticated 
overnight. It will become northwesterly on Tuesday and decrease in 
speed. The synoptic scale energy is benign tonight and Tuesday. 
For boundary layer winds...normal diurnal patterns will prevail 
for the western three-quarters of the County Warning Area tonight and Tuesday. The 
far east will continue to have brisk northwesterlies. For moisture 
..models show a bit overnight...Mostly in the upper levels...then 
it is even drier on Tuesday. There is no measurable precipitation 
on the quantitative precipitation forecast fields tonight on Tuesday. No probability of precipitation. For temperatures 
..tuesday's highs are 2-5 c warmer than this afternoon's 
readings. 


Long term...(tuesday night through monday) 
issued at 259 PM MST Monday Feb 8 2016 


Good model agreement through the week with the upstream ridge 
gradually edging east with moderate northwest flow aloft over 
Colorado. By Friday an area of cooler air moves south across the 
plains...there may even be a preliminary hint of this on Thursday. 
Even so the cooler air is still quite mild and there is little 
temperature change aloft yet. Also good agreement on the timing 
of a shortwave moving north of US late Sunday. There are 
differences in the strength though...with most models stronger 
than the operational GFS. Main impact will be the amount of 
cooling and wind...even the stronger solutions offer just a little 
bit of mountain Snow. Ridge rebuilds right away again...some 
differences on how strong the ridging will be and whether there 
will be a cutoff low west or southwest of US early next week...but 
everything is pointing to continued mild and dry weather through 
at least the first half of next week. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening) 
issued at 742 PM MST Monday Feb 8 2016 


VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Winds will be a 
southerly direction and less than 20 knots at kden and kapa 
through Tuesday. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...meier 
short term...rjk 
long term...gimmestad 
aviation...meier 






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