Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
249 PM MDT sun Oct 23 2016 

Short term...(this evening through monday) 
issued at 126 PM MDT sun Oct 23 2016 

Upper ridge remains over the area through Monday. Some high clouds 
streaming over but mainly thin tonight, then thickening from west 
to east on Monday. Expect the clouds to have a slight effect on 
temperatures, combining with a little wind on the plains to keep 
it mild tonight, and restraining highs a couple degrees on Monday. 
With slightly warmer air off the ground, temperatures should 
still get to near what we have this afternoon. With the low/mid level 
air moistening a little from the west there could be just enough 
instability for a few light showers over the mountains in the 
late afternoon. More likely they will wait for evening. 

Long term...(monday night through sunday) 
issued at 126 PM MDT sun Oct 23 2016 

There is southwesterly flow aloft Monday night, then a weak upper 
trough moves across the County Warning Area early Tuesday. West-northwesterly 
flow aloft is progged from late Tuesday afternoon well into Wednesday 
with an upper ridge to be over Colorado Wednesday night. The qg 
Omega fields have weak upward energy for the County Warning Area Monday night into 
midday Tuesday, then weak downward motion is in place through 
Wednesday night. The boundary layer winds are mostly normal 
diurnal trends Monday night and Tuesday. There is northwesterly 
downslope progged much of Tuesday night and southeasterlies 
Wednesday. Moisture-wise, models seem to have a bit more with the 
Monday night/Tuesday upper trough than the last model runs 
indicated. The moisture is fairly deep in the mountains and there 
is no low level moisture over the downsloping plains. By Tuesday 
afternoon there is decent drying. Tuesday night through Wednesday 
night look pretty dry. The qpf fields had some measurable 
precipitation Monday night and Tuesday, but it is mostly in the 
mountains. Tuesday night through Wednesday night are dry. For pops 
will go with 40-70%s in the mountains Monday night into mid day 
Tuesday. There will be lesser pops for the foothills and maybe 
10%s for the immediate plains. For temperatures, tuesday's highs 
are 1.0-2.5 c colder than monday's. Wednesday's highs are close 
to tuesday's. For the later day's, Thursday through Sunday, models 
have the upper ridge in place for the County Warning Area Thursday into Friday. 
The European model (ecmwf) hints at a weak upper trough late Friday into Saturday, 
the GFS does not. The GFS has a weak upper trough Saturday 
afternoon and night, the European model (ecmwf) doe snot. Both have an upper ridge 
on Sunday. Will keep things dry much of the time, with just a tad 
of alpine pops Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures stay warm. 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon) 
issued at 126 PM MDT sun Oct 23 2016 

VFR through Monday. Some uncertainty about wind directions late 
tonight into Monday morning as a weak Denver cyclone may form. 
Speeds are expected to be less than 10 knots during that time. 
Southeast winds should redevelop Monday afternoon. 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...gimmestad 
long term...rjk 

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