Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
354 am MDT Friday Jul 3 2015 


Short term...(today through tonight ) 
issued at 353 am MDT Friday Jul 3 2015 


Latest upper air analysis shows an upper level speed maximum driving 
southeast across eastern Wyoming. There has been persistent but 
scattered convection on the southern periphery of this 
feature...and expect that to continue across the eastern plains of 
Colorado this morning as speed maximum continues to move southeast. 
There is a chance this elevated convection could persist into the 
afternoon given jet maximum location. If that occurs then storms could 
eventually tap into surface based instability and intensify. 
Closer to the Front Range...although isolated showers/storms are 
presently in the mountains...most of the storm activity is 
expected to hold off when surface based convection fires over the 
higher terrain and then moves southeast into the I-25 corridor 
this afternoon and evening. 


It should be noted quite a few scenarios for convective 
development are in play today given the strong speed maximum to our 
northwest and morning convection...so overall forecast confidence 
is relatively low. That said...enough parameters are in play today 
for potential for stronger and even a couple severe storms given 
forecast convective available potential energy of 1000-1800 j/kg and deep layer shear. Large hail 
and high winds would be the primary threats. Storm motions should 
be sufficiently fast to reduce threat of hydrologic issues...but 
still potential for urban street and burn scar flooding as 
stronger storms still have potential to produce one inch in 30 
minutes. 


Forecast seems like a broken record again for the overnight as 
embedded disturbances in northwest flow...along with 
strengthening low level jet...will likely keep a few storms going 
on the eastern plains overnight. 


Long term...(saturday through thursday) 
issued at 353 am MDT Friday Jul 3 2015 


On Independence day...the flow will remain northwesterly with the 
ridge stretching from new mex into northern Nevada. The models show 
some quantitative precipitation forecast Saturday morning as a weak short wave passes to the 
north and east. Elsewhere...scattered thunderstorms are prognosticated to 
develop over the higher terrain...with just isolated thunderstorms 
over the northeast plains in the afternoon and evening. By that time... 
the ridge will shift eastward allowing for increased subsidence in 
the middle levels. Temperatures will climb back to around 90...with 
weak Lee troughing over eastern Colorado. On Sunday...subtropical 
moisture will advect northward into western Colorado through the 
day. A short wave will drop out of the northern rockies Sunday 
afternoon...and clip northeast Colorado Sunday evening. As it 
does...a cold front associated with the system will push into the 
Front Range. Post frontal upslope will allow for showers to linger 
overnight. On Monday...the flow aloft will be more westerly with 
the ridge suppressed to the south. Tuesday may be another cool day 
as well but the temperatures should moderate somewhat. The ridge 
axis will start to rebuild over Utah and western Colorado by 
midweek...with a northwesterly flow over northern Colorado. Still some 
potential there for a trough to brush the County Warning Area from the north so will 
keep slight chance afternoon/evening thunderstorms and limit highs to the middle 
80s for the middle of next week. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 12z Saturday morning) 
issued at 353 am MDT Friday Jul 3 2015 


Isolated morning storms are expected to stay out of the Front 
Range airports at this time. By afternoon...airmass will 
destabilize sufficiently to bring another round of scattered 
storms. Coverage will likely increase enough by 23z-02z for tempo 
variable gusty outflow winds and thunder. Otherwise VFR 
conditions will prevail with fairly normal diurnal wind patterns. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...barjenbruch 
long term...Cooper 
aviation...barjenbruch 






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