Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
251 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 251 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014 


There is isolated shallow based convection this afternoon over the 
mountains and further east over higher terrain of the cys ridge 
and further south over Lincoln County. Latest acars soundings 
still showing strong inversion around 500mb which will limit any 
deep convection along with weak large scale subsidence. Showers 
that do develop will produce only brief light rain and gusty 
winds. Have already removed thunderstorms from the mountains and 
indicated just light showers. 


The ridge aloft over eastern Great Basin will build and become 
oriented northeast to southwest over western Colorado on 
Wednesday. The airmass will continue to dry and stabilize with no 
chance of showers expected on Wednesday in County Warning Area. Temperatures will 
be slightly warmer by Wednesday afternoon. 


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) 
issued at 251 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014 


The upper ridge will move slowly east over the state for continued 
warm and mostly dry conditions through Friday. The only exception 
will be over the north central mountains where there will be a 
slight chance for minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. 
Temperatures on Thursday may be about 15 degrees above average for 
this time of year. 


A Pacific system will begin to push onshore Friday to move the 
ridge axis to the east of the state on Saturday. Moisture will 
increase in the southwest flow for a slight chance for showers 
and thunderstorms across the rest of the mountains. The chance 
will then spread across the rest of the forecast area on Sunday 
and Monday as the upper system moves into the Great Basin then 
lifts northeast across the northern rockies. Models have trended 
further north with this system which would result in a slightly 
drier forecast - but have kept the same forecasted trends. As 
this trough passes...expect Tuesday to return to a warm and dry 
trend. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 00z Wednesday late afternoon) 
issued at 251 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 23 2014 


Scattered to broken middle level deck of clouds will dissipate this 
evening giving way to mainly clear skies overnight and Wednesday. 
Surface winds will continue from the north and northwest this 
afternoon... then weaken after sunset and shift drainage by later 
this evening. No impacts expected to local terminals. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...entrekin 
long term...kriederman 
aviation...entrekin 






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