Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
357 am MDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


Short term...(today through tonight ) 
issued at 356 am MDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


Warm and dry is in store for the short term. An upper level ridge 
will build over the region Thursday and Friday accompanied by some upper 
level moisture that will likely result in some cirrus wave clouds 
but no precipitation. Lee trofing at the surface may allow some of 
the middle level westerlies to mix down into the eastern foothills 
late Thursday for some moderate gusts exceeding 20kt... but thermal 
structure of the atmosphere does not favor mixing of the 
westerlies into the lower elevations. Temperatures will be running 
about 10-15 degrees above average Thursday. 


Long term...(friday through wednesday) 
issued at 356 am MDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


Deepening middle/upper-level trough off the West Coast created a 
reciprocating large scale middle/upper-level ridge over the Rocky 
Mountain west by Friday. Beneath this strong dome of high pressure 
expect anomously warm temperatures...low humidities...light winds 
and virtually no chance of precipitation across the region with the 
storm track/jet stream residing up near the U.S./Canadian border. 
It appears high temperatures at many locales on Friday...the 25th could 
easily match if not exceed record highs for the date. Record high 
at Denver on the 25th is 80. May surpass that be a few degrees 
f...assuming the morning mountain wave cloud doesn/T hang around too 
long. Also compare that to a normal high of 62f. It/S going to 
feel like late Summer around here. If that/S not enough...min 
temperatures Friday and Saturday mornings may also come very close 
to record high mins for the date. 


On Saturday...models show heights beginning to fall as the upper 
ridge shifts east. It still looks like another very warm day with 
another chance for highs at many locations to equal or exceed the 
record high for the 26th. Record at Denver is 80. May beat that by 
a degree or two. As the southwesterly flow aloft strengthens...surface winds 
mainly on the plains remain light with a weak pressure gradient across 
the area. Precipitation still well north/northwest of the Front Range at 
that time. 


Sunday starts out balmy...esly in and near the foothills with gusty 
downslope/down valley winds. Cross sections indicate gusts to 
around 35 kts in the higher foothills at 12z. During the day...the 
upper ridge comes its eastward migration as a chilly and wet upper 
trough pushes in from the northern Great Basin. According to 
GFS...European model (ecmwf) and Canadian Gem...middle and high clouds spread in from 
the west/southwest as southwesterly flow aloft continues to strengthen. 
Even though cloud cover will be on the increase...warm and gusty 
southwesterly surface winds could result in another abnormally warm day with 
highs nearing the record again at many locations such as Denver. 
However do not see the record high of 83f at Denver in danger on 
Sunday. By afternoon...the northern mountains could begin to feel the 
impact of the approaching trough in the form of isolated to 
scattered rain showers. Sunday night...temperatures aloft cool 
with the first of two stand-up frontal boundaries moving across the 
high country. Temperatures falling below freezing by midnight will 
likely change any rain to snow for elevations above 9000 feet or 
so. 


On Monday...a second push of even cooler air sweeps in with the 
main trough. Models show a cold front slipping south across the 
northestern plains of Colorado early in the morning. Temperatures may not 
climb much above middle-morning readings. Also see precipitation chances 
rising with weak to moderate qg ascent and marginally unstable 
lapse rates. By late in the day...could see anticyclonic upslope 
flow strengthening along the southern Front Range foothills and Palmer 
Divide giving this area a second shot at measurable precipitation... 
albeit light. At high elevations...precipitation will be snow above 
8500-9000ft with light accumulations possible and below that a 
rain/snow mix. 


Monday night through Wednesday...trough moves east but the region 
remains under the influence of northwest flow aloft. Still see a 
gradual warm up during this period with just a light chance of 
precipitation in the northern mountains by Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 12z Friday morning) 
issued at 356 am MDT Thursday Oct 23 2014 


Dry weather with relatively light winds and good visibility is 
likely into Friday. There is a small chance for some moderate 
westerlies to occur immediately along the foothills late by late 
Thursday... but those are more likely to remain in the foothills. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...kelsch/meier 
long term...Baker 
aviation...kelsch/meier 






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