Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
400 am MDT sun Mar 29 2015 


Short term...(today through tonight ) 
issued at 400 am MDT sun Mar 29 2015 


Cooler and drier air is moving in behind a cold front. The cloud 
band that was over the area during the night is dissipating and 
the showers around Summit County appear to have ended. With dry 
air and stability...it looks like we should have a nearly clear 
day. Main burst of wind has gone by...but pressure gradient should 
keep north winds going on the plains most of the day...slackening 
and turning more easterly in the afternoon. Dropped forecast lows 
a little tonight with dry/mostly clear conditions...especially the 
mountain valleys. 


Long term...(monday through saturday) 
issued at 400 am MDT sun Mar 29 2015 


Monday and Tuesday will be very warm as a ridge of high pressure 
migrates from the Great Basin on Monday then over Colorado on 
Tuesday. The airmass will remain dry with just enough moisture in 
the mountains for an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm on Monday 
afternoon. The upper ridge shifts to the east by Wednesday with the 
west-southwesterly flow aloft increasing. Some middle level moisture 
will move across northern and western Colorado ahead of an 
approaching trough. Not much in the way of quantitative precipitation forecast but will go with 
slight chance of some showers in the mountains and northeast 
plains Wednesday afternoon. There does appear to be a weak frontal 
boundary that moves into the northeast plains in the afternoon. A more 
significant change in the weather will occur late Wednesday night 
and Thursday. The next system is prognosticated to drop out of the 
northern rockies and into northeast Colorado. The cold front will 
move through northeast Colorado in the morning with upslope 
developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as surface high 
pressure builds into the Front Range. The middle level trough axis 
will move into northeast Colorado late Thursday/Thursday night. 
Both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS show this solution so will go with chance 
probability of precipitation on Thursday. The system will start to shift to the east of 
Colorado on Friday. It will be a little dry on Friday but remain 
cool. By Saturday...the flow aloft become more zonal with a ridge 
of high pressure aloft. It will be dry through the day with 
afternoon temperatures climbing back to around 60. The fire danger 
will be elevated Monday/Tuesday with the very warm temperatures 
and relative humidities in the teens in the afternoon. No 
highlights at this time as the wind at the surface and aloft are not a 
significant issue. The cooler/wetter conditions will bring some 
relief to the region for the latter half of the week. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 12z Monday morning) 
issued at 400 am MDT sun Mar 29 2015 


VFR through tonight. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...gimmestad 
long term...Cooper 
aviation...gimmestad 



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