Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
235 am MDT Tuesday may 3 2016 

Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 230 am MDT Tuesday may 3 2016 

Large upper ridge expanding over the western Continental U.S. Extends well up 
into western Canada. Traveling down the East Face of this ridge was 
a small arc of low/mid-level clouds and embedded light rain showers 
at the western tip of a shortwave trough currently passing over east- 
central Colorado and west-central Kansas. At its present speed should see this 
feature and its sensible weather exiting the southeastern corner of the County Warning Area 
by 12z. However clouds trailing this compact disturbance could 
linger over eastern sections of the County Warning Area a while longer this morning. 
Clouds are mainly middle-level variety. 

For the remainder of today...should see steady drying and warming 
with the upper ridge and associated surface high moving over the 
region. Strong warming at middle-levels should pretty much suppress 
convection today for all but the highest elevations and even there 
it may take all afternoon before initiating up there. During the 
afternoon strong boundary layer mixing will allow the stronger north-northwesterly 
flow aloft to surface resulting in sustained wind speeds in the 
12-20kt range on the plains...mainly east of the I-25 corridor. 
Temperatures today with ample sunshine and warming aloft should 
generally be 4-7 degree f warmer than those yesterday. 

Tonight...winds should die down early with onset of the typical 
nocturnal drainage pattern...and skies go clear with the upper 
ridge moving over the state. Even with today/S warmer temperatures...lows 
tonight will be little different from those the night before due 
to clear skies...light winds and lower dewpoints. 

Long term...(wednesday through monday) 
issued at 230 am MDT Tuesday may 3 2016 

An upper level ridge will continue over the area from Wednesday into 
Thursday. Moisture on Wednesday will be rather sparse however still can 
not rule out some isolated showers in the mountains by afternoon. Over the 
plains it will be dry with warmer temperatures as readings rise into the 
lower to middle 70s. By Thursday there will be a slight increase in 
moisture over the higher terrain which will bring some widely scattered 
afternoon convection to the mountains over northestern Colorado it will remain dry with 
even warmer temperatures as highs reach 75 to 80 degrees. 

For Friday the upper level ridge will shift slightly eastward as a strong 
upper level storm system is located near Southern California. Meanwhile 
surface low pressure will gradually intensify near the foothills with 
increasing south-southeast low level flow across the plains. Cross-sections show 
an increase in middle level moisture in south-southwest flow aloft which may lead to 
a chance of afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms over the higher terrain. 
Across northestern Colorado should begin to see some increase in low level moisture 
with convective available potential energy by late afternoon at or above 1000 j/kg. Thus could see a few 
stronger storms develop near along convergence zn associated with a 
Denver cyclone. Overall coverage at this point looks to be fairly 
isolated so will keep probability of precipitation on the low side through Friday evening. As for 
highs readings will range from the middle 70s to lower 80s across northestern Colorado. 

Meanwhile for the weekend once again there are varying solutions 
among the medium range models regarding the eventually movement of 
the upper level low over Southern California. Once again as mentioned 
yesterday with no upstream kicker i'm still not sure quickly this 
low is going to move. The European model (ecmwf) looks way too fast in moving the 
low into The Four Corners area by Sat afternoon. At this point the GFS 
and Gem seem to have a better handle with the low as its still 
further back over Southern California/southern Nevada by late Sat afternoon. 

As for the surface pattern I would expect a surface low to still be anchored 
near the Front Range Sat afternoon. All three models show a weak fnt 
attempting to move into northestern Colorado by afternoon which may stall out and 
allow for a triple point to develop somewhere near Denver. With 
deepening low level moisture along and behind this boundary convective available potential energy could 
range from 1500-2300 j/kg over the plains and with favorable shear 
profile it still looks like a potential active afternoon and evening. 
Over the higher terrain it will also be rather unstable so will 
keeping a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms as well. 

On sun the European model (ecmwf) has an upper level low moving from western Colorado into 
NE Colorado by sun evening while the GFS has the main low near The 
Four Corners area. Both models have a surface low over southeastern Colorado 
with Ely low level upslope flow across northestern Colorado behind a stalled frontal boundary. 
Based on the European model (ecmwf) solution the best chance of additional precipitation on sun 
would be over the plains while the GFS solution would have a good 
chance of precipitation across much of the area. With timing and location still 
an issue will just mention chance probability of precipitation across the area with cooler 

For Sun night into Monday the European model (ecmwf) moves the main upper level low from 
western Nebraska into central South Dakota while at the same time the GFS 
has the upper level low moving from southwestern Colorado into southeastern Colorado. 
As a result the GFS has a cool and wet regime for much of the area 
while the European model (ecmwf) solution would be generally dry. Ensemble data is 
all over the place as well so confidence for this time period is 
very low. 


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night) 
issued at 230 am MDT Tuesday may 3 2016 

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours beneath a strong 
ridge of high pressure. Although the tail end of a weak upper air 
disturbance passing over east-central Colorado at the present time 
could produce periods of middle-level cloudiness over the metropolitan area 
until about 12z this morning...then clearing. Light drainage 
winds across the Denver metropolitan area early this morning will 
gradually turn north-northwesterly by late morning...then north-northeasterly by early 
afternoon and eventually back to a drainage wind by dark. Sustains 
speeds will start out less than 8kts early then increase to 
8-15kts after after 17z...then return to speeds generally under 
11kts after 01z this evening. 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...Baker 
long term...rpk 

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