Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
200 PM MDT Monday Aug 3 2015 


Short term...(this evening through tuesday) 
issued at 200 PM MDT Monday Aug 3 2015 


Upper trough axis is still generally to the west of the County Warning Area at 
this hour with qg ascent downstream over our area. The trough is 
forecast to slowly push to the northeast overnight with subsidence 
following in its wake. The northeast tier of counties will likely 
not see the trough axis pass by until Tuesday afternoon. Extensive 
cloud cover has held back the convective component of things thus 
far so have lowered the going probability of precipitation a bit to cover the overnight 
period. 


Tuesday will see drying and subsiding air over most of the County Warning Area 
excluding the far northeast corner so little in the way of 
probability of precipitation/quantitative precipitation forecast for Tuesday afternoon aside from the corner. With more 
sunshine high temperatures should exceed those of today by a few 
degrees. Also expecting more wind tomorrow...especially in the 
high country as moderate west to northwest flow aloft develops 
over Colorado. 


Long term...(tuesday night through monday) 
issued at 1211 PM MDT Monday Aug 3 2015 


For Tuesday night into Wednesday the front will have crossed the 
region with subsidence behind it. There is still a slight chance 
of storms possible over the far NE corner through the evening with 
light to moderate rain and winds possible but otherwise conditions 
will clear out. 


For Wednesday and Thursday the upper level ridge will start to 
shift westward cutting off the supply of monsoon moisture into the 
region. This will bring flow more zonal from the west and dry out 
NE Colorado. Wednesday afternoon could see some isolated storms in 
the higher terrain with lingering low level moisture and heating. 
With strong boundary layer westerly flow some storms could move over 
the plains so kept a slight chance for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitable water 
values will be low with the lack of moisture but dcapes are high 
with an inverted v sounding so at this point main threats look to 
be brief rain and gusty downburst winds. Conditions will continue 
to dry out on Thursday with mostly to partly cloudy skies 
expected. Temperatures for both Wednesday and Thursday will be 
above normal with highs in the lower 90s. 


Friday will be a transition day as a deep low pressure system 
over California will start to move east-northeast helping to push the ridge back to 
the west over Texas by Friday evening. This will allow for the 
moisture to return to the state from the south-southwest increasing convection 
chances over the mountains and NE plains. Will maintain a slight 
chance for now with main threats still being light to moderate 
rain and strong winds. 


The weekend will see the return of moisture as the upper level 
ridge places itself back over Texas re-inviting the typical monsoon 
pattern back to the region. Precipitable water values will be back close to an 
inch by Saturday afternoon with decent cape and shear values. 
Thunderstorms for Saturday will be possible during the afternoon 
and evening over NE Colorado with heavy rain...winds and possible 
small hail. Highs for Saturday will be hovering around normal with 
temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. For Sunday and Monday both models 
show some drying out of moisture as it moves to the east but will 
keep a slight chance of precipitation in the forecast as conditions may 
change over the next few model runs. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 00z Tuesday late afternoon) 
issued at 200 PM MDT Monday Aug 3 2015 


Scattered convective activity is still expected to threaten the 
terminals through about mid-evening. Gusty winds and brief 
moderate rains will be the main impacts. Southeasterly winds late 
this afternoon and early evening should transition to drainage 
overnight with westerlies to northwesterlies in the 10 to 20 knot 
range by afternoon Tuesday. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...et 
long term...Bowen 
aviation...et 



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