Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
326 PM MDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014 

Short term...(this evening through thursday) 
issued at 326 PM MDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014 

Upper level low over Utah will slide east across Colorado tonight 
and into Nebraska on Thursday. Best lift is ahead of the low over 
western Colorado associated with the jet. This will shift eastward 
late this afternoon and evening. Drier at the middle and upper levels 
has resulted in some clearing and pushed temperatures into the 70s. 
This will produce convective available potential energy up to 1500 j/kg. This combined with the 
shear may help a few severe storms form. The chance for severe 
storms will be along the Front Range and across the eastern plains 
with the best chance being over the northeast plains. A boundary 
over the plains will produce convergence and may a Focal Point for 
initial development over the plains. Could also see a brief tornado 
or two. The convection will spread north and east through the late 
afternoon and evening hours. Individual cells will move mainly north 
while the activity spreads eastward. Most of the convection is 
expected to end/move out of the area around midnight or just after. 

Northerly flow will be over the area Thursday as the upper level low 
lifts northeast of Colorado. Still enough instability for showers 
and thunderstorms on Thursday. Convective available potential energy will be 500 j/kg or less. This 
and weak shear will keep storms from becoming severe. Though brief 
heavy rain and small hail will be possible. Cool air behind the low 
will keep temperatures cool with highs only in the 70s. 

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday) 
issued at 326 PM MDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014 

Thursday evening should be the tail end of the shower activity 
related to the passing upper level trough. As the upper trough 
axis moves eastward across the northeast plains...drier west to 
northwesterly flow will spread across the forecast area. Weak 
upper ridging will be in place over the state on Friday...with 
subsidence from the rising heights helping to suppress most shower 
activity through the afternoon. The exception to this will be over 
the mountains and foothills where the heating of the elevated 
terrain will be enough to overcome any middle-level capping inversion 
that develops. Saturday will be a few degrees warmer as weak 
ridging continues over the area. Once again...the mountains and 
foothills should be the only areas to see any showers. 

On Sunday and Monday...broad upper troffiness from the Pacific 
northwest will expand over The Rockies and displace the upper 
ridging to the eastern United States. Across northeast 
Colorado...the chance of showers will return to the forecast along 
with cooler temperatures. A low amplitude...zonal flow is then 
expected to continue over Colorado through the middle of the week. 
Temperatures should remain below seasonal normals while shower 
activity will shift back into the mountains. 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 00z Thursday late afternoon) 
issued at 326 PM MDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014 

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the Denver area 
through 04z. Hail...heavy rain and gusty outflow winds will 
accompany the stronger storms. Low ceilings and reduced visibilities 
will also occur with the storms. There is a slight chance for low 
clouds Thursday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
develop again Thursday...likely by late morning...17z and linger 
through the afternoon. 


issued at 326 PM MDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014 

Moisture at the middle and upper levels has decreased today. 
However...the airmass is still on the moist side. This combined with 
good instability will result in some thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain. Storms are still expected to progress north and east this 
afternoon and evening...and not stall out. The risk for flash 
flooding will be low...and likely isolated at most. Thus will not 
issue a Flash Flood Watch. 

The threat for flooding on Thursday will be very low due to weaker 
storms and a drier airmass. 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...meier 
long term...dankers 

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