Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
1105 am MDT Friday Jul 1 2016 


Update... 
issued at 1028 am MDT Fri Jul 1 2016 


Have opted to go with a Flash Flood Watch for the Front Range 
foothills...urban corridor...and adjacent plains. Integrated 
precipitable water values around 1.2 inches with storm motions 
around 10 kts. Still plenty of uncertainty due to the extensive 
cloud cover may limit heating somewhat. But enough favorable 
parameters to warrant a Flash Flood Watch. The best areas of 
convergence will be over the Palmer Divide. Weak cyclone over 
Denver at this time...and could see storms develop along a 
boundary associated with this feature this aftn. Could see storms 
develop off the foothills of Larimer County and along the Cheyenne 
Ridge as well with favorable southeasterly sfc winds this aftn. 


&& 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 324 am MDT Fri Jul 1 2016 


Confidence in today's fcst is not high based on what happened 
yesterday. Currently there appears to be a disturbance moving 
across nrn Colorado which is triggering some sct showers across the 
plains. Meanwhile a 2nd feature is supposed to move into The Four 
Corners area late this aftn and then move across srn Colorado tonight. 
Precipitable water values by aftn will range FM near 1.20" along the 
Front Range to as high as 1.50" across the ern plains. At the 
surface the flow east of the mtns will become more sely this aftn 
with potentially a Denver cyclone developing by midday to the SW of 
Denver. 


Overall with abundant moisture should see another round of showers 
and tstms across the higher terrain this aftn into the early evening 
hours with the best focus possibly along and south of I-70. Over 
nern Colorado if a Denver cyclone does dvlp like the hrrr shows then a 
convergence zone may center itself over the Denver Metro area which 
could act as a focus for stronger tstm development by early aftn and 
across the Palmer Divide. Further north would expect tstm coverage 
will be more sct. With high pw's the potential exists for heavy 
rainfall in some areas especially FM Denver south to the Palmer 
Divide and points eastward. The big quesion is whether storms will 
gradually propagate to the east along outflow boundaries or will 
they potentially train over the same areas. At this point not sure 
how things will evolve so will not issue a Flash Flood Watch at this 
time due to so much uncertainty. As for svr threat mid lvl temps 
rise a few degrees by aftn so believe main threat would be gusty 
winds especially across the Palmer Divide towards Limon where mid 
lvl winds will be stronger. As for highs this aftn will keep 
readings mainly in the 70s across the plains. 


For tonight if the disturbance over swrn Colorado does move across srn Colorado 
then threat of additional showers and tstms may continue overnight 
especially across srn areas of the cwa. 


Long term...(saturday through thursday) 
issued at 224 am MDT Fri Jul 1 2016 


On Saturday, an upper level ridge of high pressure will be centered 
over the Gulf of Mexico, with a shortwave trough moving across 
Colorado. This pattern should produce scattered afternoon and 
evening showers and storms across the region. Pw's are around an 
inch, therefore some of the storms could produce brief heavy rain. 


On Sunday, the models show the upper high rebuilding over the Desert 
Southwest which should bring drier air into the state. This would 
result in warmer and drier weather across north central and 
northeastern Colorado. There may be enough moisture, combined with 
daytime heating, to produce isolated to scattered high based storms 
mainly over the higher terrain. 


On Monday, the models show a 50kt jet Max moving across southern 
Colorado, while the European model (ecmwf) has a weak shortwave moving across the 
state. These features may be enough to produce a few storms across 
the County Warning Area. Soundings look somewhat dry, therefore would expect 
mainly light to moderate rain and gusty winds with the storms. 


Tuesday looks to be the driest day of the week as GFS and European model (ecmwf) 
soundings show pw's falling below 0.75 inch. 


On Wednesday, the models show the flow of monsoonal moisture 
returning to the region as the upper level ridge shifts eastward 
into the Southern Plains states. If this pattern verifies, we should 
see an increase in shower and thunderstorms activity across north 
central and northeastern Colorado Wednesday and Thursday. 


As for temperatures, Saturday should be the coolest day of the 
period with highs in the 70s and low 80s on the plains. Temperatures 
should warm back into the 80s on Sunday and into the 90s by 
Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon) 
issued at 1028 am MDT Fri Jul 1 2016 


None of the mdls depicting the current wind pattern and kden at 
this time. Weak cyclone with kden experiencing weak west/northwest 
winds. Could see sely develop for a time this aftn then go back 
around to west/northwest as the convergent line associated with 
the cyclone. Cigs improving at this time...but will MVFR 
restriction develop with a strong tstm. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
issued at 1028 am MDT Fri Jul 1 2016 


Have issued a Flash Flood Watch from noon to 10 PM for the areas 
below. Storms will have the potential to drop 1 to 2 inches of rain in 
one hour with amounts of 3-4 inches in a few spots if they remain 
stationary for 1 to 2 hours. The most likely area for heavier 
rainfall would be from Denver south to the Palmer Divide extending 
eastward towards Limon. In addition areas in the southern 
foothills could see some heavier rainfall as well. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for coz035-036- 
038>047. 


&& 


$$ 


Update...Cooper 
short term...rpk 
long term...Kalina 
aviation...Cooper 
hydrology...Cooper 






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