Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
246 PM MDT Friday Aug 28 2015 

Short term...(this evening through saturday) 
issued at 246 PM MDT Friday Aug 28 2015 

Some weak showers occurring over the mountains...only one with 
lightning so far. Still expecting scattered coverage of weak 
showers/storms over the mountains through the early 
evening...with a very low chance of rain everywhere else. Still 
some lower visibilities in smoke upstream over 
Wyoming...visibilities mostly around 8-10 miles but some spots as 
low as 5. Not quite as bad as last Saturday...but it will likely 
get a bit worse in our area tonight before hopefully improving 
later on Saturday as the low to middle level winds turn around to 
the southwest. 

I dropped temperatures tonight slightly mainly over the mountains 
with clearing and dry air...expect only a small effect if any from 
the smoke. 

Saturday looks like a nearly dry day as there is both low level 
drying and warming aloft. Still might be enough moisture for some 
weak mountain showers...but probably less than today and mainly 
south of our area. Forecast highs are a little warmer than 
today...match guidance and look good. 

Long term...(saturday night through friday) 
issued at 246 PM MDT Friday Aug 28 2015 

Models have the upper ridge axis stretched southwest to northeast 
over the County Warning Area and parts further south for all five periods. Light 
west to southwesterly upper level flow will cover the County Warning Area through 
Monday night. The synoptic scale energy remains benign for the 
five periods. Models show normal boundary layer wind patterns 
Saturday night into Sunday evening. A surge of cooler air and 
upslope is prognosticated late Sunday night into Monday morning. 
Easterlies are prognosticated Monday afternoon...with normal drainage on 
Monday night. For is pretty dry Saturday night. 
There is better moisture for the western half of the County Warning Area late day 
Sunday...then over much of the County Warning Area late day Monday. There is some 
cape over the high country Saturday evening...then better 
coverage for late day Sunday and late day Monday. The quantitative precipitation forecast fields 
have a tad over measurable rainfall over the southwestern County Warning Area 
Saturday evening. There is more over the mountains and foothills 
late day Sunday...same for Monday and there is even minor amounts 
over the western 2/3rds of the plains. For probability of precipitation...a bit in the 
mountains Saturday evening...then 20-50%s late day Sunday and late 
day Monday. There will be 10-20% probability of precipitation for the plains Sunday 
evening and late day Monday. For temperatures...sunday's highs 
are 1-2 c warmer than saturday's. Monday's cool off some 1-4 c 
from sunday's. For the later days...Tuesday through Friday... 
models keep the upper ridge to the south and east with 
southwesterly flow aloft for the County Warning Area. Temperatures remain a bit 
warmer than usual. There is some moisture but nothing significant. 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 00z Saturday late afternoon) 
issued at 246 PM MDT Friday Aug 28 2015 

Smoke will gradually increase through this evening reducing 
visibilities into the 5-10 mile range. There is a chance of MVFR 
visibilities...though this is looking less likely. Instrument 
approaches to kden may be needed through Saturday morning. 
Conditions will likely improve during the day Saturday. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening are 
expected to remain over the mountains with no impact expected at 
the Denver area terminals. Even less thunderstorm activity 
expected on Saturday. 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...gimmestad 
long term...rjk 

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