Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
921 PM MDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014 


Update... 
issued at 858 PM MDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014 


Best snow is over the mountains...foothills south of I-70 and Park 
County. There are some returns on the radar over the plains...but 
very little seems to be hitting the ground. Made some minor 
adjustments. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through thursday) 
issued at 350 PM MDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014 


Shortwave trough currently moving across Colorado. Moisture and 
weak ascent beginning to increase again...though best ascent over 
southwest Colorado. Some showers ongoing south of the Palmer 
Divide...beginning to creep northward. Airmass slightly unstable 
with convective available potential energy around 100 j/kg across southern mountains...southern 
foothills and Park County. Winds have begun to decrease across the 
plains...becoming a bit more easterly. Trough still expected to 
move east across Colorado tonight. Moisture to continue to spread 
northward over the area. Though the main batch of middle level ascent 
expected to slide across southern Colorado...there will be enough 
ascent over the area for at least a slight chance of showers. Best 
chance for showers still looks to be across the mountains and 
foothills south of Interstate 70 and along the Palmer Divide. 
Latest models continue to generate the bulk of the quantitative precipitation forecast south of 
the County Warning Area. But low level east southeast flow will help with local 
upslope across South Park and southern foothills. Latest rap shows 
light quantitative precipitation forecast in this area and extending into the central mountains. 
Will keep the higher probability of precipitation in this area with light accumulations. 
Lower probability of precipitation further north with weak middle level ascent. System pulls 
away overnight with flow aloft becoming northwest. Drier and more 
subsident airmass spreads into area. Threat for precipitation to 
decrease after midnight and should come to an end towards morning. 
May be a few lingering flurries or light snow across Lincoln 
County. On Thursday...northwest flow to prevail over the area as 
upper trough moves into the northern and Central Plains states. 
Upper ridge to build across the Great Basin...and will spread 
warmer air into the area. Models show some wrap around moisture 
moving into the plains during the afternoon. Latest NAM and GFS 
generate some light showers far northeast corner. Airmass looks 
fairly subsident...will not include any showers at this point. 
Temperature and thickness forecasts show highs warming into the lower 
60s across the plains. 


Long term...(thursday night through wednesday) 
issued at 303 PM MDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014 


The main feature for this forecast will be a weak...slow moving 
upper trough moving out of the Desert Southwest from Friday 
afternoon through Sunday. Ahead of the trough...a warm upper ridge 
will be over the state Friday afternoon with warm temperatures nammainly 
dry conditions across the forecast area. There may be a few 
afternoon showers over the mountains...but the main moisture from 
the southwest U.S. Upper trough is not expected to arrive until 
later on Saturday. By Saturday afternoon...as the broad upper 
trough approaches the state...showers will be more widespread on 
Saturday and Sunday afternoons. The airmass should remain warm 
enough that convective activity will contain some thunderstorms. 
Both days will be fairly similar as the trough slowly progresses 
across the state. Afternoon convection on Saturday and Sunday has 
a fair chance of extending well out onto the plains each afternoon 
due to the broad nature of the upper trough. The first half of 
next week will then be warmer and drier as strong upper ridging 
develops over the Desert Southwest. All models are in pretty good 
agreement through next week with the general timing of the 
movement of the southwest U.S. Trough and then development of the 
strong upper ridging. Temperatures should be well above normal for 
the Monday through Wednesday timeframe. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 06z Thursday evening) 
issued at 858 PM MDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014 


The easterlies at dia have decreased and are trying to go to 
southeasterlies. Still believe they'll be drainage before 
sunrise. Doubt if ceilings will get below 5000 above ground level before they go 
away. Will leave vcsh in until around 09z. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...rjk 
short term...d-l 
long term...dankers 
aviation...rjk 






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