Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
422 am MDT Sat Jul 30 2016 


Short term...(today and tonight) 
issued at 422 am MDT Sat Jul 30 2016 


Last night's shortwave is shifting east with the last of the 
showers moving out of Colorado around sunrise. The jet will have 
shifted further east which should mean less impact from any small 
ripples aloft today. A pocket of slightly drier and warmer air 
aloft will be moving over northeastern Colorado, though the 
persistent easterly low level flow will continue on the plains and 
slow the drying at the surface. Between the little bit of warming 
and mixing out of the low level moisture, expect pretty good 
capping over and just east of the mountains. It could still get 
warm enough to pop some late day Low Cape storms, but they should 
be isolated and weak. Still a threat of some wetter storms 
somewhere out on the plains, though in general I expect there to 
be some decreased moisture and mainly capped air out there as 
well. By the eastern border dew points could still wind up in the 
50s with a weakly capped atmosphere that could be disrupted by 
outflows from elsewhere, little ripples in the jet, or the 
development of the nocturnal boundary layer jet. Storms in the 
Richer moisture could still be severe. CAPES should be under 500 
j/kg in and near the mountains, with 1000-2000 j/kg in the Richer 
moisture over the eastern part of the plains. Large hail still the 
main threat, with some wind threat, and still pretty linear shear 
so not much of a tornado threat. 


Less clouds and the slight warming will translate into warmer 
highs today. Forecast temps today and tonight are close to 
guidance and look good. 


Long term...(sunday through friday) 
issued at 422 am MDT Sat Jul 30 2016 


A flat upper ridge with zonal flow aloft is expected for the County Warning Area 
Sunday through Monday night. There is nothing for synoptic scale 
energy on the qg Omega fields through the period. The boundary 
layer winds will adhere to normal diurnal patterns. Moisture does 
increase for the County Warning Area by Sunday afternoon, with plenty around for 
late day Monday too. By Sunday evening, precipitable water values 
are in the 0.75 to 1.40 inch range from west to east across the 
County Warning Area. These numbers continue on Monday. For cape, it is fairly 
high over the western County Warning Area and far eastern plains late day Sunday. 
There is less late day Monday. The quantitative precipitation forecast fields have fair amounts 
of measurable rainfall late day Sunday, with a bit less, and more 
so over the high country on Monday afternoon and evening. Will go 
with 20-50% pops for late day Sunday, the highest in the mountains, 
then 10-40%s on Monday, with the highest over the mountains. For 
temperatures, sunday's highs are 0-2 c cooler than today's. 
Monday's highs are 0-2 c warmer than sunday's. For the later days, 
Tuesday through Friday, models show the upper ridge moving slowly 
eastward with the mid and upper level moisture to increase all 
four days. Thursday and Friday will be a bit cooler with all the 
cloudiness. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning) 
issued at 422 am MDT Sat Jul 30 2016 


VFR through tonight. Only isolated storms this afternoon with a 
slight chance of brief gusty winds to 40 knots, but probably 
little or no impact on the Denver area terminals. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...gimmestad 
long term...rjk 
aviation...gimmestad 



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