Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
322 PM MDT Friday may 27 2016 

Short term...(this evening through saturday) 
issued at 320 PM MDT Fri may 27 2016 

The upper low continues to lift east into Kansas and Nebraska, 
with wrap around moisture continuing the showers and thunderstorms 
over the area. A few thunderstorms east of a Sterling to Limon 
line will have the potential to be stronger with hail up to an 
inch and gusty outflow winds, however as the day wears on and the 
moisture decreases, the chances will decrease. North to 
northeasterly winds across the plains with gusts to 30 mph will be 
decreasing through the evening. Light winds overnight and clearing 
skies will allow minimum temperatures to cool into the upper 30s 
to mid 40s over the plains. With moisture decreasing, am not 
expecting any fog to form. A weak ripple in the flow may bring 
isolated snow showers over the mountains overnight, with little to 
no accumulations expected. 

On Saturday, slight upper ridging will allow for warm advection, 
allowing for Max temperatures to warm into the 60s and lower 70s 
for the plains. Moisture in the westerly flow will bring another 
day of diurnal convection to the mountains then spreading over the 
plains during the afternoon. Low Cape values between 100 to 500 
j/kg, so no severe weather will be expected. Weak troughing over 
the plains will produce light southeasterly winds over the plains, 
which will help focus the showers up near the Cheyenne Ridge. 

Long term...(saturday night through friday) 
issued at 320 PM MDT Fri may 27 2016 

Models have weak zonal flow aloft for the County Warning Area Saturday night and 
weak southwesterly flow aloft Sunday into Monday evening. By 
Monday night, an upper trough is progged to move into Colorado. 
The qg Omega fields have weak neutral to very weak upward motion 
progged for the County Warning Area through the five periods. There is a pretty 
weak surface pressure gradient progged for the County Warning Area through the 
period, so normal diurnal wind patterns are a good bet. Overall, 
models have pretty decent moisture progged for the forecast area 
all five periods. There is pretty decent cape progged over much of 
the County Warning Area during the late day periods. The lapse rates are pretty 
steep too, more so over the western half of the County Warning Area during the 
afternoon and evening periods. The quantitative precipitation forecast fields have minimal 
measurable rainfall Saturday evening over the western County Warning Area. 
Coverage and amounts are higher late day Sunday and late day 
Monday. For pops, will stay the course with mainly 20-40%s for the 
late day periods. For the later days, Tuesday through Friday, 
models have upper troughiness over the County Warning Area Tuesday into Wednesday, 
then an upper ridge moves into well into next weekend. There is a 
cold front for Tuesday. Will keep the chance for late day showers 
and thunderstorms going through Wednesday, then a slight chance 
for Thursday and Friday. 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon) 
issued at 320 PM MDT Fri may 27 2016 

Most thunderstorm activity has now moved over the eastern plains 
with just showers left behind over the urban corridor. Ceilings 
have improved to 7000 feet or more, and will continue to improve 
and clear out. Gusty north to northeasterly winds have already 
decreased and will be heading back toward drainage overnight. 
Light winds are expected through 18z Saturday. 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 


Short term...kriederman 
long term...rjk 

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