Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
304 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


Short term...(this evening through wednesday) 
issued at 304 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


A Pacific system pushing into Colorado will continue to increase 
shower coverage over the mountains this afternoon before spreading 
out over the plains. The main cold front is back over western 
Wyoming into central Utah. Looking at satellite however and 
monitoring model trends...expecting a push late this afternoon 
with west winds coming off the high terrain and onto the plains. 
Most of the energy of this system is heading north of the area 
however...so after these two waves tonight where numerous showers 
will pass over the mountains...should see activity trending down 
after midnight. With snow levels lowering between 9000 and 10,000 
feet...expect a couple inches of snow possible above this with 
locally higher amounts under stronger convective showers. A few 
showers that will be pushing out on the plains will encounter dry 
air so initially will likely see virga and gusty outflow winds. 
Then just isolated to scattered activity pushing east through the 
night. 


The surface low will sink south into southern Colorado Wednesday 
as the cold front pushes south through the state. This will 
allow weak upslope flow over the plains and will help scattered 
showers to again establish in the high terrain. With downward qg 
vertical motion...weak cape...and the main trough east of the 
area...have lowered the chance of precipitation over the area. 
Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler compared to 
today...bringing readings back closer to normal for this time of 
year. 


Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday) 
issued at 304 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


Most of the long term forecast period will be a continuation of 
the recent autumn warm spell. From Thursday through 
Saturday...high heights with mild and weak westerly flow aloft 
will prevail across the state. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday 
may approach or exceed record levels for the Denver area. The 
record high on both days is 80 degrees. As the dry and stable 
airmass remains over the region...chances for precipitation will 
be zero. 


Changes in the pattern will arrive on Sunday and Monday as the GFS 
and European model (ecmwf) are in agreement with a progressive and vigorous upper 
trough sweeping over the state Sunday night and Monday. 
Temperatures on Sunday will be almost 10 degrees cooler than 
Saturday as cloud cover increases ahead of the approaching trough. 
A cold front will move in Sunday night along with the chance of 
showers from the mountains and then across the plains. A cloudy 
and unsettled day on Monday should also have high temperatures a 
few degrees cooler than normal. The upper trough is expected to 
move through quickly with drier air moving back over the state by 
Monday night. Tuesday should then be dry with highs back to just 
above normal. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 00z Wednesday late afternoon) 
issued at 304 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


A weak Denver cyclone has formed early this afternoon near or just 
southwest of kden...making wind direction forecasting 
challenging for the next few hours. Still expecting the convective 
showers already forming over the mountains and foothills push off 
enough to switch all the light and variable winds to be 
west...potentially gusty from outflow. This push is still depicted 
in hires models around 22-00z. Westerly winds should decrease 
slightly before another northerly push comes after 09z from main 
associated cold front...although this may be barely noticeable. Winds 
should end up upslope by the late morning to afternoon. 


Clouds will continue to increase as a Pacific system moves into 
Colorado. Not much low level moisture with this system...so 
expect ceilings to remain above 6000 feet through tonight. Best 
chance for showers is 00z-06z...then not again until Wednesday 
afternoon as upslope flow is expected to develop. Ceilings should 
again stay above 6000ft. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...kriederman 
long term...dankers 
aviation...kriederman 






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