Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
240 PM MDT Friday Aug 1 2014 


Short term...(this evening through saturday) 
issued at 119 PM MDT Friday Aug 1 2014 


Low level moisture has mixed out across most of the area. 
Convection is sustaining along the upslope convergence in the 
foothills...but so far is dying as it tries to move east. With 
plenty of heating left it is too early to drop probability of precipitation further...but 
it looks like there may even be less than forecast on the plains 
today. 


For Saturday it will be warmer and drier with isolated mainly 
afternoon storms over the mountains. Current forecast for Saturday 
looks good. 


Long term...(saturday night through friday) 
issued at 119 PM MDT Friday Aug 1 2014 


The upper ridge is centered over Utah Saturday evening...then it 
moves eastward to over Colorado by Sunday. It stays there until 
Monday morning. Then is shifts southeastward and is centered over 
West Texas Sunday morning at 12z. There is a weak upper low 
prognosticated over the Great Basin by 12z Tuesday morning. Pretty weak 
northwesterly flow aloft is prognosticated for US Saturday night through 
middle day morning...then it becomes more westerly...then 
southwesterly by 12z Tuesday morning. There is weak downward 
synoptic scale energy for the County Warning Area through Sunday night...then weak 
upward energy is prognosticated on Monday and Monday evening. The 
boundary area flow should be a cross between normal diurnal trends 
and some downsloping. For moisture...things are pretty dry 
Saturday night into Monday. By Monday afternoon...moisture is 
prognosticated to increase. The dew points are prognosticated in the 40s to 
lower 50s f Saturday night into Monday...then they increase into 
the 50s f the rest of Monday and Monday night. The precipitable 
water values are in the 0.60 to 0.90 inch range Saturday night 
through Sunday night. They come up into the 0.80 to 1.10 inch 
range Monday and Monday night for the plains and foothills. There 
is very little cape prognosticated Saturday evening and late day Sunday. 
Values increase late day Monday...but nothing great. Will keep 
late day probability of precipitation around 30%s for the high country for the later day 
periods...with 0-10%s for the plains. However will up things a bit 
for late day Monday with more moisture expected. For temperatures 
..readings will be up 0-1.5 c for sunday's highs...then 0-2 c 
cooler for monday's. For the later days...Tuesday through Friday 
..models have the upper ridge flattening Tuesday through Friday. 
There are a couple or three weak upper troughs...depending on the 
model...to move across Colorado through the four days. The GFS has 
considerably more moisture during the period compare to the European model (ecmwf). 
Temperatures look to be a tad below normals. Will keep probability of precipitation in the 
20-40% range. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 00z Saturday late afternoon) 
issued at 119 PM MDT Friday Aug 1 2014 


VFR through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms mainly south and 
east of Denver through early evening...main impact will be for 
southwest approach gates to kden. For Saturday even less activity 
with little or no impact expected on kden traffic. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...gimmestad 
long term...rjk 
aviation...gimmestad 



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