Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
411 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


..addition to 4th paragraph... 


Short term...(today through tonight ) 
issued at 343 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


Quite a bit of wave clouds and gusty winds along the Front Range 
and adjacent plains early this morning which has kept overnight 
temperatures very mild with readings still in the 60s to around 70 
at the base of the foothills. Given latest satellite and water 
vapor imagery appears to be a back edge of the moisture over 
central Utah and this should diminish the cloudiness later this 
morning. This will lead to mostly sunny skies during the 
afternoon. Simulated satellite imagery also showing wave cloud 
dissipation by 18z. 


High pressure ridge aloft will continue to build over Colorado 
with continued warming temperatures. 700mb temperatures expected to rise 
at least to +10 to +12c which will get temperatures into the 
lower 80s over the plains. Record temperature for Denver today is 
80 degrees...so looks like we might break a record. This is still 
cooler than latest MOS guidance which has been running 2-5 
degrees too warm. 


Long term...(saturday through thursday) 
issued at 323 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


In for another unseasonably warm day Saturday. 586 decameter 
heights over northeast Colorado on Saturday. The resident airmass 
also quite dry and stable with the passing upper ridge. By 
afternoon 700 mb temperature up around 12c and with the deeply mixed 
boundary layer should again see maximum temperatures in the 80-85 degree range 
on the plains with the warmer readings up against the foothills 
thanks to downsloping/southwesterly winds. May see more records broken. 
Record high at Denver for the date is 80f. 


Saturday night the 500mb ridge axis shifts east of the state 
placing the region under strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Models 
show a weak middle-level pertabation being carried along by this 
flow. Pressure falls on the plains leading to a tight Cross Mountain pressure 
gradient will team up with this height fall anomaly and the formation 
of a Lee Slope Mountain wave to produce gusty west-southwesterly winds on the mountain 
ridges and east aspect of the Front Range late Sat night through 
Sunday morning. Could see peak gusts in the 40-50 miles per hour range in 
these areas. Temperatures expected to start quite mild on Sunday 
esply along the Front Range due to these Chinook winds. However 
through the day 700-500mb temperatures begin to creep downward in advance 
of an upper trough swings across the Great Basin. 00z and 06z model 
runs show the bulk of moisture and energy with this trough 
tracking farther north across Montana and Wyoming. Still passage 
of the trough Sunday night/Monday morning should end up producing 
snowfall and gusty winds in the high country...and isolated to 
scattered rain showers at lower elevations. Snow level expected to 
start out around 10 thousand feet Sunday evening and then lower to 
around 8 thousand feet by Monday afternoon. If showers still around 
Monday evening...could see a dusting of snow on the Palmer Divide 
and in the lower foothills. Snow totals in the high country during 
the 36-hour period ending 00z/Tuesday generally in the 1-3 inch range 
with upwards of 5 inches above timberline. While rain amounts at 
lower elevations will be under a tenth of an inch. Skies are 
expected to clear from north to south overnight. By Tuesday morning 
temperatures just about everywhere will fall below the freezing 
mark. Good bet this will end this year/S long growing season. Time 
to think about blowing out outdoor sprinkler systems. 


Tuesday through Thursday...flow aloft turns northwesterly with the 
trough racing east and with an upper ridge rebuilding over the Great 
Basin. Do not see any big warming rest of the week as weak weather 
disturbances embedded in the flow keep middle-levels cool. One of these 
ripples may bring a bit of snow to higher elevations in the northern mountains 
on Wednesday. Lower elevations will remain dry for the remainder of 
the week. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 12z Saturday morning) 
issued at 343 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014 


Wave cloud will dissipate between 16z-18z over local terminals. 
Expect gusty west winds to continue at bjc until 16z before wave 
breaks down. Weaker winds at apa/den with typical drainage from 
the south. By afternoon...winds expected to shift more southeast 
and east by late in the day. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...entrekin 
long term...Baker 
aviation...entrekin 






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