Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado 
935 am MDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


Update... 
issued at 935 am MDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


Current forecast of nothing seems to be on track. Some low 
cloudiness exists in the southeastern reaches of the County Warning Area at this 
time...depicted well in the hrrr...which forecasts it to dissipate 
during the day. That model also creates some convection to our 
south and we will probably see some cumulus over parts of our area 
during the afternoon but that is about it. Already added the 
aforementioned clouds to the grids so no further changes are 
planned at this time. 


&& 


Short term...(today through tonight ) 
issued at 317 am MDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


A dry westerly flow aloft will prevail today and tonight. Airmass 
will warm 3-7 degrees fahrenheit today putting most locations 
over northeast Colorado in the 80s. Airmass is dry with no clouds 
from Colorado to the Pacific Ocean. May see some cirrus clouds or 
afternoon cumulus clouds over the mountains...otherwise clear 
skies are expected to prevail through tonight. Overnight lows will 
be slightly warmer tonight...but because of the dry airmass low 
lying areas will be cool. 


Long term...(wednesday through monday) 
issued at 317 am MDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


Weak zonal flow on Wednesday becomes west-southwesterly on 
Thursday as the upper ridge center pushes well southeast of 
Colorado and the ridge itself flattens somewhat. The qg vertical 
velocity fields have weak upward motion for the County Warning Area Wednesday 
through Thursday night. The boundary layer wind forecasts have decent 
southwesterly downsloping for all the County Warning Area Wednesday. All the 
models have a decent cold front move into the plains by 12z 
Thursday morning with upslope Thursday well into the extended 
periods. For moisture...it is sparse Wednesday into early 
Thursday...then there is some increase later Thursday and 
Thursday night. The boundary layer dew points are mainly in the 
30s f west to 40s f east Wednesday through Thursday night. 
Precipitable water values are in the 0.30 to 0.60 inch range 
Wednesday into Thursday morning...then they increase into the 0.40 
to 1.00 inch range Thursday and Thursday night. There is some 
minor cape over the County Warning Area late day Wednesday...then even less over 
the high County for late day Thursday. The quantitative precipitation forecast fields have no 
measurable rainfall for the County Warning Area Wednesday through middle day 
Thursday...then there is some Thursday afternoon and night for 
most areas. Will go with no probability of precipitation Wednesday through middle day 
Thursday...then 10-30%s Thursday afternoon and night. For 
temperatures...wednesday's highs look to be 1-4 c warmer than 
today's expected readings. MOS guidance shows 90 f plus for 
dia...which may be the last 90 f for the season. On Thursday... 
temperatures are over 10 c colder than Wednesday for the plains 
and foothills. For the later days...Friday through Monday...it is 
mainly flat upper ridging for the County Warning Area with 40-70 knot zonal flow 
at the jet level. There is some moisture around...especially for 
the first half. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the tafs through 18z Wednesday morning) 
issued at 928 am MDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014 


Current tafs are in order. No ceiling/visibility issues are 
expected. Winds should remain relatively light today favoring an 
east southeast direction during the afternoon...transitioning to 
drainage late in the evening. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Update...et 
short term...meier 
long term...rjk 
aviation...et 



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